Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

Well, I just bought my first home in Seattle so consider the market as having topped and heading for a major correction. Add me to the list of obnoxious Californians driving up Seattle prices.

I will say that I paid more than I wanted but ended up in a cool house in a very cool neighborhood. The Seattle RE market really is different! Coming from CA, these differences really were noticeable

What I really found interesting was the huge volume of crappy overpriced homes sitting on the market. I would walk into them and wonder what the hell are the owners thinking? It took me a while to figure out that a small number of decent homes in good areas with a high cuteness factor were driving most owners to ridiculously over price their homes. The vast majority of these cardboard boxes sit until reality or desperation sets in and the owners drop prices to realistic level - then the homes sell. I noticed homes sitting longer on the market even during the short 2 month period I actively looked.

The good news, for buyers, is that people are no longer paying whatever sellers are asking - at least in the close in neighborhoods I looked at. Most homes seem to sit for at least 4 – 7 weeks although a small percentage of desirable realistically prices homes sell overnight. I never once ran into a bidding situation, even when the selling agent's strategy was to trigger a bidding war. I finally found a nice home and was lucky enough to buy it from a couple that wasn't looking to fund the rest of their lives but looking for a fair price and we worked out a deal with me paying significantly under asking.

As to the immediate future of RE in Seattle, I do not claim to be close to an expert. I do believe that homes will appreciate in the single digits this year - 6% - 8% is what I expect. I then believe prices will flatten out over the next 2 years or so until affordability improves. The Seattle tanking scenario? I think it is possible, but I ascribe long odds to this scenario. If it occurs, we will have more serious issues than RE affordability. BTW, I believe the US RE market is a huge bubble driven by non existent credit standards and fed intervention. So another bubble head bites the dust or at least excuses himself temporarily from agonizing over bubble blogs!

Stupid.

Come on; at least show it off! Whatchagot?

Congrats on the house.

Been saying it all along.

Now one of them has the guts to come in here and admit it.

But note the bottom line..... "yea there is a bubble everywhere else but those bad things that made the bubble everywhere else didn't happen here because...everybody....SEATTLE IS SPECIAL!!!

Equity locusts are just padding the median with their "top of the market" purchases.

Just keep telling yourself "there is no bubble in Seattle"...

Well I for one don't think it's stupid at all if the time was right for you.

Stupid: Buy 0-down with 103% financing as a stated income wage earner with no assets, planning (make that NEEDING) to refinance in less than 2 years and having that plan fall apart because the house didn't go up enough.

Fine: Buy a house you like knowing it may not hold its value but- maybe it will. That doesn't matter because either way it's what you want and you can actually afford it regardless of what it might sell for 1, 3 or 10 years down the road. May not be a good investment but very few consumables are.