Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

Have you looked at rolling changes in sales volume into this as well? That way you explicitly get both sides of the supply/demand equation.

Holy fa-shizzle! The comparison against Case Shiller is almost perfect...

A 12 month lag again turned out the best model (which gives me comfort about the approach) and using this data, I get an r-squared of 0.829!!

CS is 2 months in arrears in their reporting - meaning we get 14 months of forecast.

Here's the fugliness. I backed in to the M2M numbers as well.


Month Y2Y M2M Actual
Apr-07 9.13% 0.8% 9.6%/1.3%
May-07 6.94% -0.5%
Jun-07 4.99% -0.2%
Jul-07 4.40% 0.6%
Aug-07 3.11% -0.2%
Sep-07 1.74% -0.7%
Oct-07 1.18% -0.2%
Nov-07 2.04% 0.9%
Dec-07 3.38% 1.4%
Jan-08 3.66% 0.2%
Feb-08 3.50% 0.4%
Mar-08 0.68% -1.9%
Apr-08 -0.96% -0.8%
May-08 -2.57% -2.2%

Check out the scatterplot...

Here's my model posted against the CS time series


I'd bet that the down trend will be smoother than what I show here - w/o that little run-up, but the slope and depth are probably in the ball park

Really interesting.. you should post a higher res version of your graph. Keep updating this monthly!