Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

...on inventory increase. Really, how long can this go on?

Unless invetory really drops, I expect the local media to focus on the "one month low" in 30 year fixed mortgage rates -- a drop of a whole 0.1% -- even though ARM rates went up.



Am I the only that thinks focusing on "one month low" is odd. Seems like really grasping for good news. It's like saying: "Look! Rates finally went down a little (a tenth of a percent, only for fixed rate) after going up and up! It's a great time to buy!"

"Really, how long can this go on? "

Not much longer, in my opinion. I think it's going to follow the usual seasonal pattern and drop off later in the year. Exactly when, who knows... This is what happened in San Diego in 2006 (I lived there) even though extremist doom and gloomers were forecasting that inventory will go up FOREVER!

While inventory is a good measure of pricing pressure, I think months-of-inventory is much better. Having inventory go up at the same time as sales decline is double trouble and we're seeing that now. Anyone know the current months of inventory in Seattle/King County?

I believe the country as a whole is at 9.5 months of inventory right now. I'm expecting a little lower in Seattle and IMO the bulk (not all) will come from a decrease in sales. If I had to guess, I'd guess that we'll be at 8 months of inventory by the end of summer 2008.

good chart Tim.

I think the relative level of inventory growth has to start slowing soon - just based on the shear number of homes on the market. How much through record inventory can we go? Even if we go 20-30% higher than we ever have before, I would think the rate of growth has to slow. Think of it as an "S-Curve" where we have passed the second curve in the S

Just for the record. I'm not really predicting several double digit increases in inventory followed by an infinitely long period of time of 5% increases in inventory. Replace the word 'inventory' with 'price', to know who I'm actually making fun of.

Not sure if anyone was confused, but some of the posts sounded like they took me serious. Ugh! Any joke that needs explaining is sure a rotten one!

B-

Are you referring to me since I post at RCG?