Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

Sales down 10% YOY.
Median price up 4% YOY.

I am reluctant to venture a guess on changes in the median, since it appears to be affected more by the change in sales mix than in actual home values.

Kingco SFH median for July was about 10.6%. Safe to say it will be less than that, but I'd bet you won't shave more than 2% off - so say 8%-ish

In terms of the chart Alan referred to, I have a better model for Case-Shiller now, which predicts M2M performance instead of Y2Y. Historical accuracy is r^2 just a shade under 80%

For June, it was pretty accurate -
____ Pred__ Actual
M2M_.53%__.65%
Y2Y__8.1%__7.9%

Corresponding August figures are .25% and 6.1% - almost a 3 point drop.

Since August is a "hot" sales month I am betting we won't see all of this change reflected in the median. C/S index is for all of King/Snoho/Pierce county SFH. The correlation between C/S and Kingco median SFH is only about 70%, mostly because C/S uses a 3 month rolling average to calculate their data so their numbers smooth out much of the volatility you see in the median

As I mentioned in another thread, I think that the last week of August had half the house closings that last week of July did.

I'm glad my somewhat hazy memory of DJO's chart was close.