August Inventory Observations

[Alan]

August ended up pretty much like I expected.

- Inventory was flat through the first week of the month.
- Inventory climbed during the second and third week of the month.
- Inventory leveled off again during the fourth week of the month.
- We hit 10600 like I predicted.

I did not expect the stair-step pattern caused by houses being put on the market only at the end of the week. We did not see that pattern in July. I'm not sure what this change in listing behavior means.

Inventory leveled off on the 24th of August. In July, it leveled off on the 20th. Both dates are Fridays.

July had two drops during the two week closing period while August only had one. July's drops occurred on 7/23 and 8/1 (technically not July, but I am counting it as part of the July cycle). August's single drop occurred on 9/1 and was equivalent in magnitude to the second drop in July. The lack of the first drop in July might indicate decreases sales. That observation leads me to make the following prediction about existing stats:

Sales In August will be 30% lower than in July (put another way -- August sales will be 70% of July sales for SFH in KC).


I'll update this thread with a prediction about September inventory highs once I see the August report.

Edit: That "prediction" above is really an "estimation" of what I think the released August numbers will reveal. It can't really be a strict prediction since the events in question have already occurred.

[Alan]