Why Puget Sound RE will be gold in the future...

[burritos]

I think the potential for the Puget Sound are is huge. I'll list the factors, please tell me if the thinking is flawed:

1. For the short term, the Iraq war. From what I understand, a lot of the army military operations were consolidated at Fort Lewis. In fact, I heard that the stryker brigade is one of the few successful operations in Iraq and that originates from Fort Lewis. This war/occupation is going to last a long long time despite what politicians say. So funding for Fort Lewis should last just as long.

2. Ports. Seattle/Tacoma has the 3rd largest port collection on the west coast behind LA and Long Beach. As a major artery for goods to flow through especially as we forever become more and more dependent on Chinese goods, Puget Sound area can only grow and become more vital as the LA ports are nearing capacity.

3. Microsoft/Boeing. They are only 2 companies, but they are the dominant leaders in vital industries that will never ever go away. Even after the sun explodes, these two companies and their future technologies will be embedded in the craft that we eventually will depart in(ok, that was a little crazy, but you get the gist).

4. Global warming. Will suck the closer you get to equator. Fortunately, the Puget Sound is nowhere near to the equator and the weather is going to be just great. Canada will become more wealthy as oil becomes more and more valuable and their tundra become livable and arable land. The border(american) cities will benefit from this via the trickle down principle.

5. Illegal immigration. When I visited the South Puget sound area, who did I see building the buildings? Caucasians! Being from socal, that was a new sight from me. Despite how people say they aren't prejudiced, there will still be a white flight from the border states as california, arizona, texas becomes 40,50,60% latino. Whites could go to idaho or montana, but why not an area where the weather will be more temperate due to the pacific?

[Ubersalad]

1. Never been a potential and never will. Those military brats...

2. Perhaps.

3. High paying job isn't being created in Seattle as much as everyone likes to think it is. Read up the pretty recent archive on this blog.

4. ...

5. Just plain bad observation without fact.

[sniglet]

While the military may have a long future in the north-west it doesn't pay really well and is very unlikely to see much growth (unless we have a draft, but then we are in another whole subject area and God knows what would happen to the economy then).

The ports won't be all that profitable if we go into a global recession and imports/exports drop significantly.

The major employers in our region are HIGHLY vulnerable to recessions. Boeing's order book can drop like a rock during recessions. Likewise, even Microsoft feels pain when the economy is stressed. Back in 2002 (when the economy was barely even feeling a mild recession) Microsoft really scaled back on hiring. It was hard to get approvals to hire anyone at the time. Just watch what happens if we have a major recession...

A growing population doesn't mean much. There are plenty of places in the US with growing populations but that doesn't necessarily equate to rising house prices. Arizona, Las Vegas, and Florida have been experiencing massive population influxes. Just look what's happening to their real estate market.

As far as global warming goes, who knows what will happen. But the shear uncertainty of the whole thing (who it will effect, how, etc) makes it a poor basis on which to make investment decisions.

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[Alan]

[burritos]

5. That's just insane. Your argument is "white people hate immigrants so they will flee southern states"???? I'm just flabbergasted.[/quote]

I've lived in the Bronx and I've lived in the San Fernando Valley. Both areas used to be all white suburbs. Now both are predominantly latino urban settings where those with means, send their kids to private schools AND they move out or move into the hills. Do you have a better explanation for this phenomena?

[burritos]

Thanks all for your feedback.

[Ubersalad]

this isn't a sociology blog...

#5 is just outlandishly bad assumption, really not worth discussing and beyond the scope of most people's awareness.

[Alan]

This article is interesting and germane:

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[Jazen]

[Lionel]

[Siddha]

Thanks!

[oddvan]