Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

by **Lionel** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 8:05 am

(I really, really need to get a life.)

by **kpom** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 9:54 am

Tick.... tick..... tick.... tick.....

by **burritos** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 11:11 am

what's 10999?

by **ayles** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 11:18 am

now sitting at 11004!

by **Alan** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 11:21 am

by **redmondjp** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 12:07 pm

by **Alan** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 12:41 pm

by **rent for now** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:48 pm

by **EastSider** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 9:39 pm

by **Alan** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 7:33 am

by **EastSider** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:21 am

by **Alan** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 2:17 pm

by **Alan** » Sun Sep 16, 2007 12:01 pm

Graph with linear projection to the end of September.

by **EastSider** » Sun Sep 16, 2007 10:23 pm

Cool work Alan. It'll be great if we cross 12000 this month!

by **Alan** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:39 am

I think 12k is a long shot. Most closings happen at the end of the month and that causes inventory to stagnate the last week and the first week of the month. Maybe 15% chance of getting there? However, inventory started increasing earlier in September as compared to August and June. Maybe it will also stop increasing later?

I put 11600 at 80% today. I would have put it at 50%. I think there is a 50% chance we will get to 11750. But predictions are more meaninful the further in advance you make them so I'll stick to 11600.

I of 10600 on 8/6.

I think it is likely that I am suffering from a case of confirmation bias.

Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

10,999! I can't take it anymore!

10,999! I can't take it anymore!

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