Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

They claim our peak was in 07Q3 and our bottom will be in 08Q3 with the median price down 2.3%.

(#84 on the list):

Not nearly the doom and gloom hyperbole that we see on this blog...

Yeah, CNN has a great track record for these predictions so far (hint: sarcasm). had almost zero places experiencing price declines of any sort over the following year.

As an example, they predicted San Diego would be +0.90%.
Reality: Case-Shiller Index for San Diego -7.0% YOY as of May 2007.

Here's a summary:

City / CNN 05/2006 Prediction / Case/Shiller May 07 YOY
Phoenix / +6.30% / -5.55%
Los Angeles / +2.30% / -3.28%
San Diego / +0.90% / -6.96%
San Francisco / +6.30% / -3.43%
Denver / +1.10% / -1.44%
Washington / +2.60% / -6.34%
Miami / +0.80% / -3.29%
Tampa / +6.00% / -6.67%
Atlanta / +2.80% / +1.74%
Chicago / +3.40% / -0.56%
Boston / +1.10% / -4.29%
Detroit / +3.10% / -11.06%
Minneapolis / +1.90% / -3.51%
Charlotte / +3.50% / +6.99%
Las Vegas / -3.40% / -4.10%
New York / +2.10% / -2.26%
Cleveland / +4.70% / -2.78%
Portland / +7.50% / +5.71%
Dallas / +4.00% / +1.78%
Seattle / +10.50% / +9.06%

So, of the 20 Case-Shiller-tracked cities, they got the direction of change correct on six.

They did get fairly close for Seattle though, predicting +10.5%, vs. reality of +9.0%. Given how far off they were for many other cities though, it seems like it was more luck than skill.

And most are predicted to be bottoming out in 2008. That would make it the shortest housing downturn EV-ER.

Mr Rational is right, the forecast is for median prices - which are available from Realtor.com

Of course, I have saved you the trouble of looking. Here's the same comparison for median prices, hopefully accurately transposed...

City / CNN 05/2006 Prediction / REALTOR.Com 06-07 YOY
Phoenix / +6.30% / -2.7%
Los Angeles / +2.30% / +2.8%
San Diego / +0.90% / +0.2%
San Francisco / +6.30% / +7.6%
Denver / +1.10% / 0.0%
Washington / +2.60% / +0.3%
Miami / +0.80% / +2.0%
Tampa / +6.00% / -3.8%
Atlanta / +2.80% / +0.9%
Chicago / +3.40% / +1.7%
Boston / +1.10% / -1.9%
Detroit / +3.10% / -7.1%
Minneapolis / +1.90% / -2.5%
Charlotte / +3.50% / +8.3%
Las Vegas / -3.40% / -3.6%
New York / +2.10% / 6.3%
Cleveland / +4.70% / -7.1%
Portland / +7.50% / +5.2%
Dallas / +4.00% / +1.7%
Seattle / +10.50% / +8.9%

I guess if the goal is getting the sign right, they did ok. I think I could do as well with a dart board.

Predicting seattle is easy. Just shave 1% off the YoY appreciation every month...