Case-Shiller Tiered Data

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Aubrey Cohen, , points to Case-Shiller tiering their data into 3 levels of priciness: <331K, 331-485K, >485K for Seattle.

It's pretty interesting. I made some pretty graphs, but I don't maintain a website any longer to upload them to. If anyone wants them to post here, I'll email them to you.

Looking back at the 90s, the data captures the very peak of the last top, and the subsequent decline.

What it shows is that the high end took a pretty big bath, the medium took a medium bath, and the low end didn't really decline at all. It just went flat.

The low-end also continued to appreciate at a greater rate than the other two tiers, and has continued to do so up to today.

Why this is, I don't know. My guess is that the value of the underlying land has increased at a greater pace than the structures, and also held it's value better in the decline, making even the the crappiest of crap-shacks hold their worth. Or perhaps low-end buyers were unwilling or unable to sell at a loss last time around, so they didn't sell at all.

If I find the time, I'll take look at other cities with more pronounced and complete price declines to see that pattern holds up.

This is looking pretty good for my hopes. I bought the cheapest house that I thought our family would be comfortable in a few years ago, and have been waiting out the price declines at the medium (well, bottom of high in these categories)-end. Perhaps it will work out for us, though this is a completely different sort of run-up than the last one, so the rules may not apply.

[Alan]

[Markor]

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