Are we too optimistic?

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[deejayoh]

I dunno, 18 years is a long time. Rule of 72 would say double the last peak is only 4% appreciation per year. So knock that back to 2.5% and where do you end up?

[rose-colored-coolaid]

I think Marksman's point was that we're still double the CS of the last peak, let alone the valley that followed it. Since we know that was a bubble inflated price, it doesn't seem unreasonable to argue that prices will recede back to at least that point or very close to it...at least in the CS numbers.

Keep in mind that 30% off an already 40% discounted price produces only a 58% total drop, not a 70% overall decline.