A sign we're at bottom?

Myth propagated by bitter ignorant renters, or statistical reality ignored by real estate professionals?

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Re: A sign we're at bottom?

Postby davidlosh@davidlosh.com » Sat May 23, 2009 7:20 am

Every year a certain number of people need to buy and sell. Most reasons have to do with children changing schools. There are also some corporate transfers, and people who need to sell, like to settle an estate.

The biggest buyer pool is people with children and the end of the school year is when people with children make a move. They are motivated, in most cases, responsible buyers.

In every cycle that I can remember of the last forty years, no matter what the economy, things sell in the Spring. The big difference this year to other time I remember is that the selling season is very limited in terms of time. There was no January burst of activity,

If we see the market stop in June it will be a very short selling season.

So people calling a bottom was a sales trick. Sales people like to get motivation up. What I have seen is a steady decline in prices to keep that motivation going. That in itself should indicate there are problems in the Real Estate market place and caution should be used.
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Re: A sign we're at bottom?

Postby BillE » Mon May 25, 2009 12:11 pm

On the topic of people making unfounded claims of a market bottom, I was laughed at yesterday for believing that the local market will drop at least another 3%. Someone was talking up the $8,000 tax rebate and when I pointed out that it's only around 3% on a $250k home it was like I had just predicted that the sun won't come up tomorrow. "You don't really think houses will come down another 3% do you?"
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Re: A sign we're at bottom?

Postby ROFLCatDown » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:30 pm

Last I knew if you kicked a supporting beam out from under something it had bad consequences. Like licking the car jack out from under your car. The car will drop, hit bottom, and stay there. The question isn't whether it will drop, but how far the car has to go to hit the ground.

At which point the market should stay fairly flat (seasonally adjusted) until inflation picks up and the job market starts to recover... Which neither have happened yet. I imagine we're pretty close to the bottom, but we're still waiting on sellers to realize they missed their opportunity to close sooner and that they're going to have to lower their price if they're desperate to get rid of it... And I've seen several properties adjust downward 10% since July 1st. One had only been on the market about 60 days.

My "gut" says we're near bottom, but not there yet.
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Re: A sign we're at bottom?

Postby Robroy » Mon Oct 03, 2011 6:33 am

ROFLCatDown wrote:Last I knew if you kicked a supporting beam out from under something it had bad consequences. Like licking the car jack out from under your car. The car will drop, hit bottom, and stay there. The question isn't whether it will drop, but how far the car has to go to hit the ground.

At which point the market should stay fairly flat (seasonally adjusted) until inflation picks up and the job market starts to recover... Which neither have happened yet. I imagine we're pretty close to the bottom, but we're still waiting on sellers to realize they missed their opportunity to close sooner and that they're going to have to lower their price if they're desperate to get rid of it... And I've seen several properties adjust downward 10% since July 1st. One had only been on the market about 60 days.

My "gut" says we're near bottom, but not there yet.

Looks like you're not here any more, but I'll keep the thread alive for fun. You posted a very reasoned response. Also, looks like your gut was not only wrong then, but it would probably be wrong now if it told you the same thing.

It is amazing that the greatest economic collapse in the history of the human race can be accompanied by the real time analysis of the internet that can be examined and critiqued in a world changed so soon after the analysis.
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Re: A sign we're at bottom?

Postby Robroy » Mon Oct 03, 2011 6:37 am

BillE wrote:On the topic of people making unfounded claims of a market bottom, I was laughed at yesterday for believing that the local market will drop at least another 3%. Someone was talking up the $8,000 tax rebate and when I pointed out that it's only around 3% on a $250k home it was like I had just predicted that the sun won't come up tomorrow. "You don't really think houses will come down another 3% do you?"

I'll bet they're not laughing now. :-)

BTW, we ended up getting the $8k when we bought our home and farm in Kentucky. It was almost 10% of the price and was HUGE. We also didn't even think about the $8k until our mortgage lender brought it up when we were closing. Doh!

On a side note, we moved from Seattle to that farm last summer. And we refi'd for 3.25% at an INCREASED value. Turns out that people are leaving the cities for the country. There was no big housing bubble in areas like this so this is a fundamental - and slow - price increase.
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