2007 Predictions

[biliruben]

How well am I doing?

Looks like I nailed prices for March, and I'm a month early on inventory.

There have been more sales the last couple months than I expected. I didn't take into account those that simply feel they need a house at at any price who finally were able to find one. After the flipper wasteland that comprised the majority of inventory over Nov, Dec, Jan, when actual, livable homes came on the market they looked great in comparison. There was some pent up demand that I would guess will dissipate pretty quickly.

I also underestimated that their are still investors trying to "get into the game" at this late date. Not to down-play the high level of education Seattlites have on average, but there are still a lot of clueless morons here.

5423, 440K, Dec (actual)
6100, 450K, Jan (est) - 5932, 429K (act)
6800, 445K, Feb (est) - 6124, 430K (act)
7500, 455K, Mar (est) - 6762, 454K (act)
8200, 455K, Apr
9100, 450K, May
9200, 440K, Jun
9300, 435K, Jul
9900, 430K, Aug
10500, 410K, Sep
10500, 395K, Oct
9000, 390K, Nov
8500, 390K, Dec

[S-Crow]

I don't know that I'd go as far as calling people I don't know Morons, but I do get your point.

There are a healthy amount of people that don't know much about the the markets and r.e. business and it's used against them as consumers. The thing is, I can't entirely fault them for a bit of ignorance, because their lives do not revolve around real estate---a far cry from some in my line of work that believe the WORLD revolves around them/r.e.

[biliruben]

Yeah - That was a bit strong Tim; you're right. I have a friend who considered buying a spare condo last month, and he may have been clueless (which I remedied), but he certainly isn't a moron.

Then again, I have another friend who DID buy. He now has a townhouse in Ballard (his latest purchase) a 4-plex in Kent that he hasn't been able to sell, and a house in Burien. I like him and all, but he IS a moron.

[sniglet]

[Jazen]

[biliruben]

[biliruben]

[klio]

[meshugy]

bili...you're really off on the pricing. With the actual median price 19K higher then your estimate, I think we can conclude that your model is seriously flawed.

I suppose you could try and buy a house today and tell the seller he's "required" to sell it to you for $19K less the asking. But something tells me you'll just get laughed at...

[synthetik]

With the 10 year over 5%, now hitting 5.1% -- any hopes you might have had for a recovery are firmly dashed.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070607/wall_street.html?.v=33

Thanks for playing though...

[mike2]

[deejayoh]

[faster]

[synthetik]

[mike2]