It might get a lot worse

[george]

This article in the Boston Globe is scary. Says lots of boomers need to cash in their homes for retirement and will be in for a shock. Namely, no buyers.



A perfect storm could be brewing. A housing downturn that normally wouldn't bottom out until 2014 or so anyway. Add to this boomers needing to unload their McMansions. Plus the headlines this weekend about "light stagflation?

All I can say is Yikes. The more I read, the less I want to buy into this bloated housing market. Buy low, sell high.

[small_far_ugly]

[george]

[deejayoh]

that article is a bit short sighted - as it ignores the "boomer echo", which is the boomer's kids. That generation is just as big as the boomers. It spreads out a bit more, but they're going to live somewhere.

Its not like the baby boom is a pig in the snake that has to be digested - US population continues to grow. I'd call this one alarmist

[george]

[deejayoh]

George - You're right, there probably will be a dip in home buying cohort for probably 10 years -which would nicely align itself with a market correction - but then the next cohort will be back with a vengeance.
"Gen Y" is about as big as the baby boom. When they come of age, they might be "largely uninterested in sprawling suburban homes" but then I doubt they will be so special or wealthy that they all get new homes built just for them wherever they like. It will probably mean the start of another boom, just as I get ready to retire. :>) If you think about the boomer and boomlet cohorts, you can make a lot of money betting on the right companies (think Disney in the late 80's/early 90's)

Here's an article




(CBS) If you've ever wondered why corporate America, Hollywood, Madison Avenue and the media all seem obsessed with the youth culture, the answer is simple.

The largest generation of young people since the '60s is beginning to come of age. They're called "echo boomers" because they're the genetic offspring and demographic echo of their parents, the baby boomers.

Born between 1982 and 1995, there are nearly 80 million of them, and they're already having a huge impact on entire segments of the economy. And as the population ages, they will be become the next dominant generation of Americans.

Who are they? What do they want? As Correspondent Steve Kroft first reported last October, you'll be surprised.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The oldest are barely out of college, and the youngest are still in grade school.

And whether you call them "echo boomers," "Generation Y" or "millennials," they already make up nearly a third of the U.S. population, and already spend $170 billion a year of their own and their parents' money

[george]

Deejayoh, that makes a lot of sense and either way, the retirement home business will be booming.

[WetCoaster]

Do any of these articles take into account RE speculators/investors?

It seems to me that the ebbs and flows of the RE market are not driven by owners upsizing or downsizing; but rather by people buying for investment. Like the stock market, there are many that jump on the bandwagon when things are going gangbusters, and many flee when the bottom is falling out.

Even if the bottom falls out of the market over the next few years, eventually the market will go the other way.

[deejayoh]

[george]

[TJ_98370]

"....In fact, I'm inclined to think there's a good chance that the return on real estate will be negative, substantially negative, over the next 10 years because all booms reverse in the end....." – Robert Shiller

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_es ... /index.htm