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Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.
 
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 NAR Desperation Ads 
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Bubble Banter Boss

Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 1978
Post NAR Desperation Ads
The National Association of Realtors keeps releasing increasingly desperate ads. I think they're getting funny. Here is the PDF and radio ad (Buyer Strength) for my new favorite.

The tag line (copied straight from the PDF) - 8 OUT OF 10 ECONOMISTS BELIEVE HOME PRICES WILL RISE IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS.

First, that's a lot of caps. Second, it's incredibly unclear what that quote actually means. Does it mean 80% of economists agree that if you buy a home today it will sell for more in 5 years than you paid? Or does it mean if you buy today 20% of economists believe you won't see a single YOY gain for at least five years.

Neither interpretation is especially optimistic by the way. I mean, 3 years ago probably 99% would agree prices would rise over the next five years. Put that way, even the more optimistic interpretation is pretty pessimistic if your salary depends on a vibrant housing market.

By the way, if you enjoy their ad campaigns as much as I do for how laughably out of touch they are, here's the page to access all their ad campaign material. Apparently, they want members to use this stuff to drive sales. HA.

http://www.realtor.org/pac.nsf/pages/pachome


Wed Feb 25, 2009 6:46 pm
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Bubble Bloviator

Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2008 10:05 am
Posts: 330
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Re: NAR Desperation Ads
Home prices will likely rise in the next five years. But rise from what?
They may not be higher than they are now, but they may be higher than the low they'll see that may happen in the next 1-4 years. So, no, not optimistic. If a house sells for 500,000 dollars now, and two years from now sells for 375,000, and then three years after that sells for 390,000, then yes! Prices will have risen in the next five years.


Wed Feb 25, 2009 7:39 pm
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Bubble Bloviator

Joined: Sun May 06, 2007 7:26 am
Posts: 225
Post Re: NAR Desperation Ads
In related news....CalTech seismologists predict a "big one" in California within the next 30 years. :twisted:


Thu Feb 26, 2009 12:25 pm
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Bubble Banter Boss

Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 1978
Post Re: NAR Desperation Ads
ira s wrote:
Home prices will likely rise in the next five years. But rise from what?
They may not be higher than they are now, but they may be higher than the low they'll see that may happen in the next 1-4 years. So, no, not optimistic. If a house sells for 500,000 dollars now, and two years from now sells for 375,000, and then three years after that sells for 390,000, then yes! Prices will have risen in the next five years.


My point exactly Ira. That ad strikes me as intentionally misleading by using confusing semantics on what is actually a relatively depressing statistic.

Kind of doesn't mesh well with this ad campaigndoes it?


Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:04 pm
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