Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

The National Association of Realtors keeps releasing increasingly desperate ads. I think they're getting funny. Here is the and (Buyer Strength) for my new favorite.

The tag line (copied straight from the PDF) - 8 OUT OF 10 ECONOMISTS BELIEVE HOME PRICES WILL RISE IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS.

First, that's a lot of caps. Second, it's incredibly unclear what that quote actually means. Does it mean 80% of economists agree that if you buy a home today it will sell for more in 5 years than you paid? Or does it mean if you buy today 20% of economists believe you won't see a single YOY gain for at least five years.

Neither interpretation is especially optimistic by the way. I mean, 3 years ago probably 99% would agree prices would rise over the next five years. Put that way, even the more optimistic interpretation is pretty pessimistic if your salary depends on a vibrant housing market.

By the way, if you enjoy their ad campaigns as much as I do for how laughably out of touch they are, here's the page to access all their ad campaign material. Apparently, they want members to use this stuff to drive sales. HA.

http://www.realtor.org/pac.nsf/pages/pachome

Home prices will likely rise in the next five years. But rise from what?
They may not be higher than they are now, but they may be higher than the low they'll see that may happen in the next 1-4 years. So, no, not optimistic. If a house sells for 500,000 dollars now, and two years from now sells for 375,000, and then three years after that sells for 390,000, then yes! Prices will have risen in the next five years.

In related news....CalTech seismologists predict a "big one" in California within the next 30 years.