CME Home Price Futures
Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 5:58 pmSo what better way to predict the real estate market than to bet money on it? You can do that without buying property by trading home price futures on Chicago Mercantile Exchange. CME lists futures for ten metropolitan areas and a composite national index:
These indices are based on the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, which is intended to be more correct by tracking the value of a particular set of homes, rather than the median price of whatever happens to be selling in the market. Unfortunately futures contracts for Seattle are not listed yet, though Seattle has its house price index (which is called "SEX" btw
).
So, what do the market pundits predict? If you look at futures chains that go up to February 2008, every single market, including the national composite, is predicted to be falling. I can't wait until Seattle futures start trading, perhaps then there would be a way to buy a house any time and hedge myself from falling prices.
These indices are based on the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, which is intended to be more correct by tracking the value of a particular set of homes, rather than the median price of whatever happens to be selling in the market. Unfortunately futures contracts for Seattle are not listed yet, though Seattle has its house price index (which is called "SEX" btw
).
So, what do the market pundits predict? If you look at futures chains that go up to February 2008, every single market, including the national composite, is predicted to be falling. I can't wait until Seattle futures start trading, perhaps then there would be a way to buy a house any time and hedge myself from falling prices.