by rose-colored-coolaid » Fri Feb 20, 2009 9:17 am
So...I have one concern. Preferring to be at least a little contrarian, once everyone becomes a bear I feel like I ought to start swinging the other way.
That said, I think this crash has still got some legs to it. The numbers are just too bleak. The DOW is down another 140 pts this morning, and it's knocking again on 11 year lows. And rather than the previous panic selling, what we're seeing now appears to be a rather gradual sell off stretched over weeks. Start in early January, and the DOW was nearly 9000 pts. Since then, it's fallen more than 15%, with only 5 major upticks. The rest has been a gradual decline.
Perhaps more telling is this (starting Jan 6th) -
UP DAYS : 9
DOWN DAYS : 19
FLAT DAYS : 3
Also, during that time the longest bull run was 3 up days for +300 pts. The longest bear run was 6 days for -815 pts.