Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

Down 450.

I sold at DOW 12,100 just before the run-up to 13,000. I told y'all that it would spike too; it always does after I sell! But I figured it would pass 12,100 on the way down.

Yesterday was my luckiest trade ever. Bought some xlf puts a few hours before close. Today markets down 3% and VIX up massively.

Good for you! I wish I had the cajones to invest like that.

So, anyone, is the US going down the tubes alone, or is it eventually going to take other major countries down with it? I'm really tempted to get out of the US dollar.

rcc, thanks for that analysis. That makes a lot of sense.

I'm looking like a genius now for selling at DOW 12,100 in March, and predicting a rally afterwards. Unfortunately the universe does not allow me to make money from my predictions. I can only not lose money.

I'm still resisting the urge to get out of the US dollar. The universe may construe that as a bet, in which case the dollar will rise.

Monday 6/30 seems to have the makings of another Black Monday.

Perfectfire,

It could be that from a technical analysis side that most of the lower end support was breached on all three indexes, and breached convincingly. We've lost about 19.8% on the S&P (20% is an official bear market) so the market psychology is changing amongst even some of the hardest headed bulls.

I think it's hard to predict exactly when a market crash is going to occur, they usually happen when you least expect it. I do know however, that the long term trend is down. I've been short this market since the S&P was at 1514 and will continue to add to my positions on the way down. I think the next wave of opportunity will be to short tech (GOOG, AAPL, etc).

Got puts?

And another thing, it doesn't matter who gets elected president. Come November it is going to be very clear that this country is in for a long deep recession. Neither Obama nor McCain have a chance in hell of restoring any luster to America.

We'll still be in Iraq and Afghanistan, the housing market will still be in the dumps, the American consumer will still be tapped out (even worse by Nov.), and banks will be imploding. The next POTUS will have inherited a disaster, and will most likely be in office for only 4 years.

As for strength in the US dollar, it will continue to weaken. The ECB has already hinted at a rate hike next week and the dollar moved south on the news. The only thing that can help the US dollar at this point is for the FED to raise rates and signal that they have shifted their monetary policy to fight inflation.

There are huge housing bubbles in other nations, such as Spain and Australia. However, the ECB has shown that it is prone to fight inflation and not worry nearly as much about their housing correction. They are more apt to let their bubble burst, rather than let it slowly leak. We'll see how this thing plays out, but right now Bernanke and Trichet appear to be in a staring contest and Trichet is flipping B-52 Ben the bird.