Boeing faces cancelled aircraft orders

[sniglet]

[Robroy]

[Robroy]

I was wondering how the "real" this risk is, and then read this gem:

"...they acknowledge that they are in almost daily talks with airlines seeking to cancel or defer deliveries. Although most of these discussions involve U.S. carriers, signs of stress have emerged from India to Europe."

[WestSideBilly]

Boeing and EADS both have backlogs in the range of 6 years. If 1/3 of them cancel, that puts their backlogs at about 4 years of 100% production. In 2012, Boeing will have the 787, 747-8, and hopefully a new tanker in production. EADS will have the A350XWB and A400M (and possibly a bunch of tankers getting shipped to Alabama).

Whatever airlines are still in business then will still need new planes, especially the efficient 787 and A350XWB, to replace their aging gas hogs.

Yes, this is very real, but it's not as grave as it may seem. There are still companies that have a lot of capital who will fill in some of the slack - ILFC, Dubai/Emirates, etc. Granted, if things don't pick up by 2011 or so, Boeing and EADS will be staring at a lot of empty manufacturing slots in 2013 and on. This is nothing new; airplanes have always been cyclical.

[TJ_98370]

I'm going long on my shares of BA. Go Boeing!!!.

[sniglet]

[Robroy]

I think the post election riots in November may have an impact on this.

[WestSideBilly]

They may all be on strike then, anyway.

[sniglet]

Any last hopes people have for Boeing continuing to hold up the local economy are quickly being dashed. Financing for aircraft is going up in smoke, and it now looks like a lot of NEW planes will be going directly to rot in the desert.

So much for all that growing demand for air travel in emerging markets...

[perfectfire]

Weren't people saying just a few months ago that gas prices + decoupling would result in strong airplane exports? Wrong and wrong.

[SeattleMoose]

More kerosene.....



Could turn out to be more grim if "deferrals" turn into outright cancellations....

[perfectfire]

15 more 787s cancelled: http://uk.reuters.com/article/rbssIndus ... 9520090205

[The Tim]

[SeattleMoose]

Let's hope that the two cycles (commerical and defense) don't superimpose on top of each other creating a double sinusoidal "low" point.

Global recession/depression = huge falloff in air travel
Endless bailouts and declining tax revenue = more pressure to cut defense spending

This could get ugly....

Wasn't it just last year that our local economy was still "special"?

"WILL CODE FOR FODD"

[The Tim]