this market makes no sense
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buyStocks
Bubble Watcher
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:52 pm
Posts: 24
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 Re: this market makes no sense hey,
It did drop below 8k today briefly (I had to literally use all my willpower to stop myself from buying anything; I'm trying to keep a disciplined dollar averaging strategy as the market collapses). Does the market ever really correlate with the news? If it did, the DOW would be at -1K.
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| Thu Nov 13, 2008 10:07 pm |
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rose-colored-coolaid
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 1978
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Re: this market makes no sense WestSideBilly wrote: Almost got to the 8000 floor today before a 700 point rally which was based on... no real news. No, that is real news. The highs/lows don't matter right now. What matters is an 800 pt swing in one day. It was starting to look a little like volatility was down. Sure, we had 100-200 pt drops the last few days, but little volatility. This just confirms the market is still completely unsettled. I do have to add, I usually scoff at conspiracy theories like a plunge protection team...color me interested at this point. < 8000 pts has been tested about 5 times in the last month and it was followed by record setting rallies each time. It's probably just the fabled dead-cat bear rally, but it's still peculiar.
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| Thu Nov 13, 2008 10:22 pm |
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buyStocks
Bubble Watcher
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:52 pm
Posts: 24
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Re: this market makes no sense Just gotta dip our feet in the cold water to get acclimated to below 8K. Soon we'll get to dive on in. Agree that volatility's bad, no matter which direction we guy. The joys of a secular bear.
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| Thu Nov 13, 2008 11:07 pm |
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Charles Dean
Bubble Bloviator
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:11 am
Posts: 417
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Re: this market makes no sense Looks like we may see the 8000 bounce a couple of more times. We've already dropped 300 today from yesterday's surge.
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| Fri Nov 14, 2008 10:07 am |
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WestSideBilly
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:41 pm
Posts: 562
Location: Land of entitlement
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Re: this market makes no sense rose-colored-coolaid wrote: WestSideBilly wrote: Almost got to the 8000 floor today before a 700 point rally which was based on... no real news. No, that is real news. The highs/lows don't matter right now. What matters is an 800 pt swing in one day. It was starting to look a little like volatility was down. Sure, we had 100-200 pt drops the last few days, but little volatility. This just confirms the market is still completely unsettled. I do have to add, I usually scoff at conspiracy theories like a plunge protection team...color me interested at this point. < 8000 pts has been tested about 5 times in the last month and it was followed by record setting rallies each time. It's probably just the fabled dead-cat bear rally, but it's still peculiar. I suspect there are a lot of investors who have triggered buys. They see 8000 (or some other arbitrary number) and start shopping.
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| Fri Nov 14, 2008 1:27 pm |
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buyStocks
Bubble Watcher
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:52 pm
Posts: 24
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Re: this market makes no sense I'm guessing a lot of short-term leveraged speculators are going to get burned when it drops below 8K and doesn't rally back up.
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| Fri Nov 14, 2008 6:29 pm |
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rose-colored-coolaid
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 1978
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Re: this market makes no sense WestSideBilly wrote: I suspect there are a lot of investors who have triggered buys. They see 8000 (or some other arbitrary number) and start shopping. I agree, and I think what you're saying is the truth. I was just admitting I can be swayed a little by conspiracy theories, at least briefly and at an emotional level. I do think once we truly break 8,000...look out below.
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| Sat Nov 15, 2008 9:29 am |
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lamont
Bubble Bloviator
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:02 am
Posts: 213
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Re: this market makes no sense rose-colored-coolaid wrote: WestSideBilly wrote: I suspect there are a lot of investors who have triggered buys. They see 8000 (or some other arbitrary number) and start shopping. I agree, and I think what you're saying is the truth. I was just admitting I can be swayed a little by conspiracy theories, at least briefly and at an emotional level. I do think once we truly break 8,000...look out below. I caught the first episode of huckabee's show on fox and he was giving air to someone who thought that terrorists were taking down the markets and selling it short at the end of every session. There's really no conspiracy, though, its just forced selling and liquidation to meet redemptions and build cash positions -- in an atmosphere where the markets are expecting more earnings misses and is digesting more and more bad news. GOOG and AMZN still haven't been taken down to levels that i think they should be at. They are fundamentally still an advertiser and a retailer, the growth of the internet helps them out, but doesn't isolate or recession-proof them. If the lame-duck session fails to do anything about the automakers and GM fails that'll be particularly nasty for the broader economy. Retail already looks bad -- image what it'll look like after 2-to-5 million jobs are lost as the economy digests all the GM job losses and the losses from all its suppliers (plus additional CDS shocks). Letting Lehman fail hard was not a particularly good idea when looked at in the rear view window -- I doubt that letting GM fail hard is going to look good in the future either.
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| Sat Nov 15, 2008 11:55 am |
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FreedomLover
Bubble Blatherer
Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2008 2:02 pm
Posts: 68
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Re: this market makes no sense Huckabee is a moron. I hope he has no chance at the 2012 nomination, or the GOP is sunk forever. Can't we just root out all the crazies first?
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| Mon Nov 17, 2008 2:04 pm |
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buyStocks
Bubble Watcher
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:52 pm
Posts: 24
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Re: this market makes no sense Wonder if were gonna go below 8K today and stay there?
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| Tue Nov 18, 2008 1:22 am |
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WestSideBilly
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:41 pm
Posts: 562
Location: Land of entitlement
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Re: this market makes no sense After yesterday, I figured we'd get a weak buy in the morning and a 300-400 point sell in the afternoon, only to rally back to ~8100 or so.
This has nothing to do with anything except the irrational, yet fairly predictable, pattern of the last few weeks.
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| Tue Nov 18, 2008 7:52 am |
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rose-colored-coolaid
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 1978
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Re: this market makes no sense I don't know...something subtle seems to have changed in the last week or so. The declines are more reliable (and slower) and the rallies are less pronounced. I think either we settle on/around DOW 8200 pretty soon, or that becomes the ceiling soon rather than the floor.
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| Tue Nov 18, 2008 9:27 am |
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FreedomLover
Bubble Blatherer
Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2008 2:02 pm
Posts: 68
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Re: this market makes no sense I predict Dow 4000 in 1 year.
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| Tue Nov 18, 2008 12:21 pm |
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sniglet
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 2:58 pm
Posts: 680
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Re: this market makes no sense I'm predicting a Dow below 2000, and maybe even below 1000 by the time we hit bottom, over the next 4 years. In the meantime I expect to see amazing multi-month rallies that will shoot up 20% or more, only to lose it all again.
Bear markets are always the most volatile market periods, and I think this is going to be one of the most volatile markets ever.
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| Tue Nov 18, 2008 2:11 pm |
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WestSideBilly
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:41 pm
Posts: 562
Location: Land of entitlement
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Re: this market makes no sense WestSideBilly wrote: After yesterday, I figured we'd get a weak buy in the morning and a 300-400 point sell in the afternoon, only to rally back to ~8100 or so.
This has nothing to do with anything except the irrational, yet fairly predictable, pattern of the last few weeks. Well, I had the pattern correct, just not the scale.  Tomorrow's prediction: Open with a small buy to ~8600, steady decline to a close around 8200.
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| Tue Nov 18, 2008 3:00 pm |
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