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this market makes no sense
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perfectfire
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Sun May 20, 2007 11:40 pm
Posts: 540
Location: Bellevue
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 Re: this market makes no sense I bet we're going to see a fresh round of "Stocks are cheap!", "We're below 2003's lows, imagine if you had bought into the market at 2003, you'd have made huge returns as long as you got out in 2007!".
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| Thu Nov 20, 2008 1:22 pm |
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buyStocks
Bubble Watcher
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:52 pm
Posts: 24
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Re: this market makes no sense wow, what an amazing day
I'm guessing sucker rally tomorrow in AM, then down we go.
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| Thu Nov 20, 2008 1:32 pm |
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rose-colored-coolaid
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 1978
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Re: this market makes no sense Yeah, was anyone predicting a 12% sell off the last 2 days?
I think we'll see some of this recouped just before close as people get in place for tomorrow's rebound, but I'm glad I have no skin in the game anymore.
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| Thu Nov 20, 2008 1:34 pm |
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WestSideBilly
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:41 pm
Posts: 562
Location: Land of entitlement
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Re: this market makes no sense buyStocks wrote: wow, what an amazing day
I'm guessing sucker rally tomorrow in AM, then down we go. No good news floating around. Sucker rally to 7700, bounce around midday, fire sale to 7200 by close. 
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| Thu Nov 20, 2008 6:06 pm |
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rose-colored-coolaid
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 1978
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Re: this market makes no sense WestSideBilly wrote: No good news floating around. Sucker rally to 7700, bounce around midday, fire sale to 7200 by close. Not even, tomorrow is a Friday. Lower trading. Sucker rally only gets to 7600, and sale stops at 7350.
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| Thu Nov 20, 2008 7:07 pm |
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lamont
Bubble Bloviator
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:02 am
Posts: 213
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Re: this market makes no sense lamont wrote: lamont wrote: for tomorrow, i'm going to guess that the market opens down on pessimistic selling, rallys sharply back above 8,000 on concerns it is overbought, and then sells off late as hedge fund unloading takes over and it closes down lower by 300+ points.
so far the open was about like I expected. the rally stalled before I thought it would stall (i was picturing up 100-200 around noon). if the inability of the rally to climb above 8,000 is any indication my closing estimate may be too optimistic. well, it climbed briefly above 8,000 right after i posted that, and then fell off the cliff i was expecting and i was too optimistic... -444.99 7,200 is the bottom from 2003 which should meet major resistance. probably wildly whipsawing tomorrow, i have no idea where it will go, but the 7,200 level should mostly hold for at least a day or two.
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| Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:44 pm |
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lamont
Bubble Bloviator
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:02 am
Posts: 213
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Re: this market makes no sense lamont wrote: 7,200 is the bottom from 2003 which should meet major resistance. probably wildly whipsawing tomorrow, i have no idea where it will go, but the 7,200 level should mostly hold for at least a day or two. actually, i'll call it for bouncing off 7,200 (+/- 25) and then will close 400+ pts up at 7900+ for >700 pts of swing on the day. at least there is major multi-generational support at 380 at the peak of the 1929 market... so we shouldn't make it that low tomorrow...
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| Thu Nov 20, 2008 11:05 pm |
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buyStocks
Bubble Watcher
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:52 pm
Posts: 24
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Re: this market makes no sense Futures look high, but is seems like the overnight international sucker rally is already loosing steam. Changing my guess to a wimpy sucker rally followed by a large drop.
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| Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:30 am |
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WestSideBilly
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:41 pm
Posts: 562
Location: Land of entitlement
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Re: this market makes no sense rose-colored-coolaid wrote: WestSideBilly wrote: No good news floating around. Sucker rally to 7700, bounce around midday, fire sale to 7200 by close. Not even, tomorrow is a Friday. Lower trading. Sucker rally only gets to 7600, and sale stops at 7350. Peaked at 7722 at 9:15 or so (EST). Here comes the fire sale!
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| Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:09 am |
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rose-colored-coolaid
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 1978
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Re: this market makes no sense lamont wrote: 7,200 is the bottom from 2003 which should meet major resistance. probably wildly whipsawing tomorrow, i have no idea where it will go, but the 7,200 level should mostly hold for at least a day or two. But what about the S&P? Yesterday we broke through to 1997 levels...I really don't see any reason to believe a 7200 support for the DOW means much right now...
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| Fri Nov 21, 2008 8:35 am |
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WestSideBilly
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:41 pm
Posts: 562
Location: Land of entitlement
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Re: this market makes no sense Damn, didn't see that coming.
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| Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:50 pm |
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lamont
Bubble Bloviator
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:02 am
Posts: 213
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Re: this market makes no sense lamont wrote: actually, i'll call it for bouncing off 7,200 (+/- 25) and then will close 400+ pts up at 7900+ for >700 pts of swing on the day.
called it! more or less... support was 7500 rather than 7200 and the swing was only 550 pts, but i got the big picture right. so now we probably establish a trading range... i think monday will be a 300 pt up day unless the world ends over the weekend... then it'll find a top before the end of the week (8500-9000). all bets are off if citigroup or GM announces a bankruptcy or we get another nuclear detonation in the economy.
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| Fri Nov 21, 2008 6:57 pm |
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lamont
Bubble Bloviator
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:02 am
Posts: 213
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Re: this market makes no sense rose-colored-coolaid wrote: lamont wrote: 7,200 is the bottom from 2003 which should meet major resistance. probably wildly whipsawing tomorrow, i have no idea where it will go, but the 7,200 level should mostly hold for at least a day or two. But what about the S&P? Yesterday we broke through to 1997 levels...I really don't see any reason to believe a 7200 support for the DOW means much right now... yeah, but the dow is still the headliner. we still watch the down and talk about triple-digit days on the dow. and i like to see all three indexes agree before calling a given trend -- similarly to how dow theory requires confirmation between the industrials and the transports, you can play the same game and add in the S+P and the nasdaq. and all this discussion of "support and resistance" is really trying to guess other investors psychologies -- and the fact that we all talk about "support and resistance" and often heaviliy about the dow gives that index a lot of psychological weight at certain levels. in reality those numbers shouldn't convey any special meaning, but enough investors trade based on support and resistance levels and enough traders have written computer programs that basically trade on support and resistance levels that it conjures up some 'reality' to those levels. although mostly its useful for looking in the rear-view window and being able to figure out what the bulk of traders were thinking at a given time -- since we don't work on wall street we're just guessing about the psychology of traders when we're making predictions.
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| Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:10 pm |
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rose-colored-coolaid
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 1978
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Re: this market makes no sense lamont wrote: since we don't work on wall street we're just guessing about the psychology of traders when we're making predictions. Uh, right now? Terrified and greedy as hell. Did I mention potentially desperate? Done.
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| Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:25 pm |
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buyStocks
Bubble Watcher
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:52 pm
Posts: 24
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Re: this market makes no sense Another amazing day; my guesses were not even close. It was interesting how the media mostly focused on how the DOW went to 2003 levels instead of the S&P going to 1997 levels yesterday.
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| Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:58 am |
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