Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

I just had to update that 32% off topic. It's just so last autumn.

I'm just trying to get my head around today's news. Citigroup no operational losses if you ignore the things where they are losing hundreds of billions of dollars, and the market had a 5% rally? Ignore this news, it's impossible that this is what sparked the rally.

This wasn't a rally on Citi, it was a rally on fear of missing the bottom. I'm just trying to figure out if it's the major bear market rally or just a one day blip. For my money, the major uptick out of a free fall screams temporary bounce to me.

My guess is that this swift rally will be undone, with stocks hitting new lows, within a few weeks. Dramatic rallies are almost always sell signals, and usually result from a lot of short covering.

That said, I do expect that a significant rally that will last for at least a couple months isn't too far in our future. I just think we haven't quite hit the low before the "real" rally. Of course, I don't think any of these rallies will mark the end of the bear market. It's just that stocks (and economies) don't move in straight lines.

The cause for this most recent rally is that I just sold all of the stock in my retirement portfolio and put the proceeds into a short term treasury securities fund. Now that I have locked in my losses, we should have a significant bull run.

You can thank me later.

I've heard a few people mention the possibility of a double dip recession, where there is a stock market rally for a couple of months with a significant increase , but then crashes again and goes down much further than it rallied.
I wouldn't call it likely, but it's certainly possible.