Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

Just started seeing some media reports that we might be .

Just curious if everyone else agrees or not. It almost seems like the bubbles are coming faster but having less impact with each passing season.

Not worried at all. We might go down a bit here but its no big deal. There are too many people out there who think they have missed the run up and are waiting to put their money in the market once there is a pull back.
It's on CNN --- we probably don't have a stock market bubble yet.

It certainly behaves like a bubble at times, as there seems to be no news bad enough to cause a sell off, and even tiny morsels of "good" news result in big rallies. Company loses a ton of money, no big deal. More layoffs, hey that's less labor costs! Retail spending up 0.1%? Oh yeah, end of the recession!

its called a "dead cat bounce"

For a "dead cat bounce" it is a big one. Must have been a rubber cat.....

There is little justification for the "froth" on WallStreet. The fundamentals are just not there. Might be a good time to "lock in" if you still on that roller coaster....

Via (which I can't get to load today), updated through yesterday:

That's uncanny. One thought I've had lately is that we may now be seeing firsthand all the sentiment that went into the GD's dead cat bounce. If so, we get to relive history in a way.

Yeish. That is uncanny!

We'll see! You can see in the GD chart above that after the dead cat bounce people did buy in a pullback, but it wasn't enough to prevent another plummet to a new low.

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It's worth your time to check this Market Ticker post out. It's something I have been tracking the last several months. If the current trend continues, it may be time to jump back into the market after October. It's interesting to note that this plan predicted getting out of the market before the big plunge late last year.
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Here's a hint kids, and this one's free - here's a long-term timing signal that, over the last 20 years, has never lost money.....
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.....The use of this strategy is simplicity itself - you buy the SPY (or a S&P 500 mutual fund such as VFINX) when the 20 week moving average crosses the 50 week moving average by more than 1%, and you go to cash (or treasuries) when the 20 week moving average crosses the 50week moving average in the downward direct by more than 1%.....
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You can do the 20 week (140 day) and the 50 week (350 day) moving average graphs on the Yahoo Finance web site.
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China appears to have just popped an echo-bubble, or undergoing a very sharp correction, shanghai index is down sharply:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SSEC

We are also going to see a flood of negative housing reports soon. And while wall street views the increase in SFH construction as positive, I suspect it is more of a negative as more inventory comes online as the air gets sucked out of the housing market in the winter.

I honestly tend to strongly doubt the parallel to the GD chart -- history usually rhymes instead of repeating exactly, and I'm not even sure if we're going to plunge back down to the March lows, but the stock market doesn't go straight up forever, and we're due for a correction.