Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

interesting, I wonder how reliable it is. Like, if I bought options with 5 week contracts the Friday before the current month's options expire, can I anticipate a strong wednesday/thursday the next week regardless of what else is going on?

This might be worth investigating.

Economists have studied this effect for some time and the studies have been somewhat split about whether option expiration creates a non-random pattern. Even those studies that do indicate non-randomness doesn't mean that there's a guaranteed payoff out there for the taking. Otherwise, wouldn't everybody figure the timing out to exploit it?

There are some people who theorize that large prop traders might be manipulating the market with very large positions around expiration dates.

Stop playing options. Start playing stock index futures. If you value lowest risk and highest liquidity, and your profits, you will make the switch.