Stocks headed for a fall

[synthetik]

Cramer on Market Manipulation

Everyone should watch this! Thanks for the link Eleua

[Jazen]

So what gives with the recent run-up in the stock market? Dow is at an all time high now. Are there lots of short positions?

[synthetik]

I really have no idea but I'm assuming there are a tremendous amount of people trying to cover short positions before expiration on April 21.

I was really looking forward to this past week being a watershed event, but hopefully next week. The party can't go on forever, that's for sure. My DELL and INTC positions are pretty much toast but I can't see how financials can get away unscathed for another quarter, much less another month. The mounting wave of foreclosures simply cannot be ignored -- but I'm sure they'll try.

[Jazen]

I have read that because we have broken through the 13K barrier, the bull run has just begun and it will continue for 2-3 months. I am not of this opinion, but have read it from quite a few people.

[Matthew]

much of the market is psychological. Breaking a barrier may lead to another small run up. However, that just makes for an even harder fall.

[Jazen]

Best run since 1955!
I have to admit, it befuddles me.

[Eleua]

I heard that CNBC is saying "the market climbs a wall of worry" every 15 minutes. I don't know, as I try not to watch it when the bull is out in force.

Given the latest earnings (and they are not good), the economy, housing, and the dollar, it would appear that the market is climbing a wall of stupidity.

If it is Joe-Blow that is buying this, I can understand that he will be "all in" as the market tops. Standard operating procedure.

If it is 8000 hedge funds that all think they can hit the exits faster than the next guy, it will be a breathtaking descent.

There is leverage out-the-ass, and it won't take much for one simple margin call to cause a cascade of margin calls, which will cause an avalanche of margin calls, which will cause a (hmmm, I'm out of destructive, gravity-based, natural phenomena)...

It is November '99 all over again. That was the last time I felt this helpless and hopeless.

Watch the consumer and the dollar vs yen.

[sniglet]

[Jazen]

I believe the run-up will have a downfall. I also believe the recent run-up has a lot to do with the fact that there is really no other place to put your money, no more real estate to speculate. Sell in May and go away. Keep your money in cash, get a CD and wait for the housing to fall. Then, take your pick.

[Jazen]

Also, I don't think we will feel the pinch of the housing crash into the rest of the economy until later this year, so you might have some wiggle room if you have some balls and extra cash. Just don't get greedy, take your gains as you make them.

[finance]

[deejayoh]

[finance]

Deejoyoh - I totally agree with you about Paul Allen and the "accidental billionare" statement. Almost anything he touches is barely profitable at best. I have heard that the only investments that really succeed are the ones that he barely has a say in (like the Seahawks).

I mainly put that statment about Vulcan due to their massive investments in Seattle...at least they are building cool stuff, lol. If its profitable for them or not does not concern the market, just their bank account.

As for the other companies in the Seattle region, stock appreciation has given many people making $50,000 a year a $10k or $20k bump in bonuses and stock investments...some of that is bound to make its way into Real Estate.

As for Microsoft, I believe the stock is undervalued to where they are moving towards in their strategy. A year from now their stock could rebound (especially if they aquire YAHOO)...I have fundamental reasons backin it up but wont go into detail. (I also do not currently own MSFT).

[Denny Retrograde]

[Jazen]

See my last post for this thread, couple of good articles by Jim Jubak regarding the reason (or lack thereof) for the recent market run-up.
http://seattlebubble.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=260