Dow 32% off peak... how much more to go?

[The Tim]

you-are-here.png (27.17 KiB) Viewed 21973 times

Thoughts?

[Charles Dean]

I was just thinking about this today and was going to look for something like this later on today. I remember in my learnings on the great depression about the huge fall, relative bump back up, then long term decline past that point.
And that's why we have Tim around!

[rose-colored-coolaid]

Sell on the bounce.

[The Tim]

Here's a better direct comparison of 1929-1932 vs. the present, courtesy of Yahoo! Finance's feature that lets you download historic data to a spreadsheet.

[Pndscm]

Watch out below...

[S. Marty Pantz]

I, too, plan to get contributing bi-weekly to my 403(b)(7). So, okay, I probably will not see any increase in stock value, per share, over the next handful of years, but I am hoping that by the time I am in my early retirement years--a dozen years or so from now--I can then start "cashing out" at a modest profit. Am I being financially ignorant?

[S. Marty Pantz]

I meant "continue to contribute," not "get to..." I just started contributing late last year, 2007, so it's not like I was in the market years ago and have seen most of that value wiped out in the past year since the Oct. 2007 stock market "high."

[Lake Hills Renter]

Oof! The Dow is down another 250 points today -- to the lowest since 1997. My 401k has lost at least 40% so far. All my Microsoft stock awards are underwater.

[The Tim]

Crash chart update:



Total drop from the peak (503 days ago) as of today's close: 49.8%
Total drop from the peak the same # of days after the 1929 peak: 57.6%

[sniglet]

I still hold to the Dow 2000 prediction, but it will take some time for us to get there. In fact, I think we will see a pretty heady rally begin sometime in the next few weeks that will last for months. The Dow could even climb above 9000 before this rally peters out.

Unfortunately, I think that the deflationary forces will grip the economy again (maybe towards the end of 2009) and take us even lower. 5000 in the Dow by year-end is not out of the question.

The current decline might get the Dow into the lower 6000 range before the big rally starts, but I don't think it will stay there for long.

[davidlosh@davidlosh.com]

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

[davidlosh@davidlosh.com]

OK that time the link to the historical Dow chart worked.

Look at the run up in the Dow between 1988 to 2007. There is no comparison to the Great Depression according to the chart.

The shear volume of dollars connected to the stock market is staggering and yes it could go to 2000 and still be on track for future economic growth. That's where it was in 1989.

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[davidlosh@davidlosh.com]

Going back twenty years was a great thought. One thing that is much different today is the internet, computers, and computer software to run any type of business, or government.

Once the genie was out of the bottle everything, and anything became possible.

[lamont]