this market makes no sense

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[lamont]

[lamont]

[rose-colored-coolaid]

And in the Ho-Hum department, 680 pt sell off today. Is it a good sign or a bad one when volatility is so great in the markets that near double digit dives in all the major indexes isn't that big of news?

[lamont]

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[lamont]

looks like yet another pennant continuation pattern again around ~8400 on the dow which is approaching its resolution. should breakdown soon (0-3 days) and retest 7200-7500 again soon... today's selling action isn't really a continuation yet, but if we get another fairly strong down day tomorrow it should be pretty brutal all next week -- and either way by next friday we should have either hit 7200-7500 or be fully involved in another plunge down...

i was expecting dow 10,000 to be violated by the end of the year, but i wasn't expecting to spend Q4 below that level bouncing off 7000-8000....

i've been thinking, however, that with stocks off 50% and back to 2003 lows, that i should start making new contributions to my 401k into stock funds and start dollar-cost-averaging...

even if the bottom is still a year away with another 50% to fall from here (dow 3500-4000), that at a maximum wipes out 50% of new contributions over a year and will catch the bottom at some point and the money that catches the bottom will ride the next bull market....

i'm not sure about buying stocks while looking at a tsunami of jobless claims just starting to hit the headlines, though...

[lamont]

blew that one.

although my broader "trading range" prediction still holds and we still haven't violated 9000 to the upside.

the good news is that the market is showing a little more spunk. there has been a couple down days in this rally and the indexes have actually fought back instead of immediately plunging.

i doubt we've put in "the" bottom, but maybe there's some technical repair going on.

i'm still calling for the trading range to hold and expect it to plunge shortly and revist the recent lows. if the dow climbs convincingly above 9000 that'll be interesting...

[lamont]

intermediate-term indicators are moving towards neutral from oversold and this rally is sputtering against its 50-DMA resistance.

its going to have to do better than this next week. so far this is better than the near free-fall which started in september, but its not signaling bull market to me.

[david_mcmanus]

Sooooo.....

BAC and Citi need billions more in capital and......BAC is up 11%?

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[WestSideBilly]

3 days of news that would bankrupt any other company, and BAC is on a 3 day 40% rally. Apparently it is all relative. C, BAC, and AIG are all still in big trouble and likely to need to raise capital in a manner which may dilute shareholders...

[david_mcmanus]

I think you guys are worrying too much. I glanced at the Times this morning and saw a headline that asked the question: "Is the recession coming to an end?" so I guess we're already at the bottom.

Personally, I think we haven't even begun to see the worst yet, but some jobs number will come out tomorrow and the market will go up 300 points. 9.8% unemp instead of 9.9% or some other garbage....

[WestSideBilly]