It starts at the bottom and works it's way up.

[EconE]

Getting back to the bottom...they sure aren't messing around in Tacoma.

1999 prices for this one.

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Tacoma/1915-67 ... me/2789883

Sold in 2001 for $174,500
2005 for $272,000
2008 for $345,000

Currently offered for $140,000.

[Civil Servant]

Thanks to all for the thoughtful replies. My cup runneth over. Every day I'm gladder and gladder that back in 2005 I opted for grad school rather than a house. Any bets as to what the first neighborhood will be in which we see the top coming down in Seattle?

I do want to clarify, part of what interests us about the south end is the option of being able to swing a 15-year mortgage for around the same monthly payments that our friends pay for their 30's; to me that's the real opportunity a declining market presents. I work for a government agency so am probably not going anywhere for a while. We're willing to wait a long time to buy. I do get that Columbia City or Beacon Hill will never -- not in my mortgage-holding lifetime anyway -- have the cachet of Fremont or Ballard. That said, I look at these undistinguished little sub-1200sf 1940's houses in Ballard still with Zestimates and asking prices upwards of $400K, and I know that this is unsustainable. Ballard? Come on.

Angie, I love your idea of a weekend-daytime tour and would happily sit on a giant pile of cookie crumbs for the privilege thereof. Let's work on this.

[EconE]

[ira s]

I do get that Columbia City or Beacon Hill will never -- not in my mortgage-holding lifetime anyway -- have the cachet of Fremont or Ballard

I don't know. Ballard didn't always have cachet. And it still has some alleys that smell like urine....and a crime rate higher than most other neighborhoods in Seattle....( The U District and parts of downtown/First Hill were tops in crime rate, Ballard just behind).

[Civil Servant]

Re Cherry Loop: Interesting! And does someone know why the property reports for Cherry Loop addresses (and presumably others in the The Highlands) are not accessible via the KC GIS site? Does being a "private community" mean that otherwise-public records are not?

I ask because I've taken to Googling, in cases of short sale, asking price below last sale price, etc., the names of the property owners. My hypothesis was that a lot of them are/were involved in real estate and financial services, and so far my hypothesis has been sound. Though lately there is some Microsoft creeping into the mix.

[lamont]

I'm renting in 98122 / central district and I'm wondering when its going to work its way to here. Still no foreclosures listed, still nothing under $300k in the neighborhood, still no signs of a breakdown in prices on redfin, still piles of townhouses under construction and it looks like they're all selling. Do I just live in an alternative reality universe where there is no housing collapse?

And this isn't the best neighborhood in Seattle, if you leave a window open some meth addict will definitely climb in and steal your laptop....

[ira s]

Lamont,
I'm seeing five single family homes currently for sale in the 98122 zip code for under 300k. Not pretty, in fact I think the meth addicts live there.
Seems to me that because the western side of 98122 is so close to downtown,that part of the zipcode won't see the declines as early as the southeastern part of the zip....Homes east of 23rd and west or on or near MLK should see declines first, especially south towards Yesler, as the neighboring 98144 zip code in that area has seen some downward movement. There are also a couple of homes in the 98122 zipcode scheduled to be auctioned off at a foreclosure auction in March. Real expensive, and could have possibly been redeemed by now.

[Lake Hills Renter]

Lake Hills (98008) has completely stagnated. There's a relatively large number of houses for sale for winter, but no one is buying -- I haven't seen a sold sign is a very long time. Prices dropped about 10-15% from peak last year, but the sellers apparently won't go any lower, and still they aren't selling. Most of the houses have been for sale for quite a while, many of them relisted multiple times, and haven't had a price drop in many months. I suspect they are waiting for the spring selling season...again.

[Angie]

[EconE]

[davidlosh@davidlosh.com]

gentrifiers,

I love that term. It harkins back to the days of the early settlers. When pioneers came in the claim this great continent for themselves. You get the idea, I don't really need to go there.

Columbia City and along Raineer from the Central District South used to be a lot more mellow. Aside from the gentrifiers there is also a large Asian population. Tensions rose as businesses were steadily taken over.

There is an economic principle that explains why Asians can come to this country with nothing and become a driving business force, but that's for another day.

Bottom line is that the gentrifiers will be moved out as an undesirable element. The gentrifiers have an odd idea that things should go thier way. They demand it, they go to meetings, and want pea patches.

When crime becomes a problem the gentrifiers want police protection. They want cross walks and stop lights. Gentrifiers are very busy people who do work hard to get more funding for the schools even though they are outside of the economic tax base for the area.

You must mean the people who fought for the Light Rail so they can get down town to work. That will be a double edged sword. The population of the South End will become more mobile also. The Light Rail Line may also be used by people who have a different line of work than the gentrifiers.

Some people steal, sell drugs, sell themselves, party, play, and in general get by. Asians are more organized, but they also gamble, sell drugs, party, play, and are motivated to make as much money as they can.

It's just different. In some other communities people self regulate. Some groups offer thier own protection based on a set of rules outside of what the gentrifiers are used to.

As time goes on and housing prices collapse the interest in the South End as an affordable alternative will collapse also, I can only hope.

[Civil Servant]

Hi Angie -- I can't do the 8th, my sister will be visiting from back East. Chat offline? Send mail to ostensible.correspondent+at+gmail and watch for me to write back from a different account. It is really lovely of you to make this offer -- I appreciate it.

David, regarding your "I can only hope": do you have a dog in this fight (i.e., the south end never taking off)? This sounds a bit personal.

[ira s]

Whatever you decide on the southend coffee/tour, keep me in the loop.

[EconE]

Ok you guys...quit jacking my thread with your social planning!

Let's take a look at some Tacoma condos.

3201 Pacific St.
#303 listed at 100k
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Tacoma/3201-Pa ... me/3030537

While you're at it, don't forget to take note of the rapid price reductions on unit #303. That is very common in Los Angeles. It is called "marking to market".

#403 listed at 125k (last purchase 01/2007 for $233,500
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Tacoma/3201-Pa ... me/3030545

#603 (slightly larger but same line) dreaming of selling at $235,000
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Tacoma/3201-Pa ... me/3030559

#903 undercutting #603 (same sf) at $209,950 (attempting to get out just above 2007 purchase price)
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Tacoma/3201-Pa ... me/3030580

Same pattern in all the highrises (10+ stories) in Long Beach, San Diego, Hollywood and Marina Del Rey, Ca.

[cheapseats]

Mr. Losh said " Asians are more organized, but they also gamble, sell drugs, party, play, and are motivated to make as much money as they can."

These comments are inappropriate if not flat out racist.