A sign we're at bottom?

[davidlosh@davidlosh.com]

Every year a certain number of people need to buy and sell. Most reasons have to do with children changing schools. There are also some corporate transfers, and people who need to sell, like to settle an estate.

The biggest buyer pool is people with children and the end of the school year is when people with children make a move. They are motivated, in most cases, responsible buyers.

In every cycle that I can remember of the last forty years, no matter what the economy, things sell in the Spring. The big difference this year to other time I remember is that the selling season is very limited in terms of time. There was no January burst of activity,

If we see the market stop in June it will be a very short selling season.

So people calling a bottom was a sales trick. Sales people like to get motivation up. What I have seen is a steady decline in prices to keep that motivation going. That in itself should indicate there are problems in the Real Estate market place and caution should be used.

[BillE]

On the topic of people making unfounded claims of a market bottom, I was laughed at yesterday for believing that the local market will drop at least another 3%. Someone was talking up the $8,000 tax rebate and when I pointed out that it's only around 3% on a $250k home it was like I had just predicted that the sun won't come up tomorrow. "You don't really think houses will come down another 3% do you?"

[ROFLCatDown]

Last I knew if you kicked a supporting beam out from under something it had bad consequences. Like licking the car jack out from under your car. The car will drop, hit bottom, and stay there. The question isn't whether it will drop, but how far the car has to go to hit the ground.

At which point the market should stay fairly flat (seasonally adjusted) until inflation picks up and the job market starts to recover... Which neither have happened yet. I imagine we're pretty close to the bottom, but we're still waiting on sellers to realize they missed their opportunity to close sooner and that they're going to have to lower their price if they're desperate to get rid of it... And I've seen several properties adjust downward 10% since July 1st. One had only been on the market about 60 days.

My "gut" says we're near bottom, but not there yet.

[Robroy]

[Robroy]