2009 Stock Market "Miracle"

[SeattleMoose]

The illusion of Anti-gravity explained:

Favorite quote from article's reader comments: "Yes, it is hard to believe how "less worse than awful" news has pushed markets up 60% in six months."

"It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall."........B. Dylan

[TJ_98370]

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Very thought provoking piece.
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My favorite quote:
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.....The market has become delusional and is living in fantasyland in the same way people were dancing in the Titanic on the eve before it crashed into an iceberg.....
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I like the way the author points out that technical indicators fail to incorporate deteriorating fundamentals.
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I've come to the conclusion that the market is so manipulated by invisible sources that the average investor, like myself, will never comprehend the causes of market movements. I've been riding the recent upward trend with a small investment in a S&P Index fund, but I agree that it is probably a good time to get out. I sense the market is about to crash again, even though the trend indicators say otherwise, and crashes seem to happen in October with disproportionate frequency.
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[Markor]

I don't regret staying away during the recent bull market--too much risk. Better to wait for the final reckoning. If it happens it'll be a golden opportunity with much less risk.

[WestSideBilly]

I've done OK this year, but I agree that it's a mostly delusional market. The analyst comments are great; a company with a P/E of 140 is "undervalued and a solid growth option" - bam! 15% increase in stock price.

However, despite the horrible fundamentals, I don't see another huge crash. There really isn't a "good investment" right now - the safe investments (CDs, etc) are barely paying any interest, real estate is a huge risk, precious metals are very high, etc. So I think people will keep dumping money into the stock market hoping to find winners.

[Markor]

So you think irrationality can continue indefinitely? A permanently high plateau?

[SeattleMoose]

I found #10 in the list most interesting...Europe seems to have dodged the bullet...which is astounding coz I was in Warsaw in 2005 and a year later in 2006, and just in one year some downtown condo RE prices had increased by 50 to 75 percent.

"So you think irrationality can continue indefinitely? A permanently high plateau?"......just a couple years ago we had people on this board saying (with strong conviction) the very same thing about RE.

TJ....I also agree that the market is being artificially manipulated. Ya just gotta wonder to what degree. And by whom? (as if WE will ever know...)

[TJ_98370]

I know that this blog attracts "saver" type people, so I know there are readers that have a nest egg to protect. I'm one of those type people and I'm becoming frustrated with the current options with where to put my savings. I hate the stock market and CD's and the MM pay such miserable returns. It seems that muni-bonds are about the only investment that are half-way safe, pay decent returns (5% tax free is common) and do not not require daily monitoring but even muni-bonds have the risks of default and inflation. What to do?
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[TJ_98370]

I stumbled across the Van Kampen Senior Loan Fund (XPRTX) just because a relative owns some shares. I did not even know what a "senior loan" was until I researched this fund. Up 44% since January 1. Wow!

[ira s]

Some online savings accounts currently pay 2.25%, which is still pretty low.
Otherwise, if you have time and a knack for research, investing in property tax liens can be lucrative. Some states are lien states and some states are deed states. WA is a deed state. What this means is: In WA, if you fail to pay your property taxes, you property will be auctioned off, unless you're mortgage holder pays it off. But in many other states, you are simply buying the property tax lien, you are paying the back taxes and penalties, and property tax liens get first priority, so if you buy the tax lien, the homeowner needs to pay you back plus a decent percentage of interest, very often 8, 10 or more annual interest rate, and if they don't pay you within 3 years ( varies by state), you can foreclose on the property. The downsides are that if you don't research the property carefully, you could be investing in something worthless, but well researched, you could do well.

[TJ_98370]

Ira,
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A few years back a coworker bought into one of those tax liens on some property in Oklahoma. If I understood correctly there was some kind of lottery involved. He felt lucky that he was selected. He ended up owning / controlling several hundred acres for a cash outlay of like about $8K and he acted like he had struck the the mother lode. I don't know how it turned out for him because he moved on with his career shortly after. At the time, it seemed like a very weird investment to me, but he was very happy about it.
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Thanx for the tip / reminder.
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[Markor]

Bank of America is up ~500% since March. Lots of stuff is way up.

Keep in mind that when general inflation is -4%, a CD returning 1% is effectively returning 5%, and 80% of that gain is tax-free. (I like deflation! Except wage deflation!) CD money earmarked for housing is effectively earning 13% mostly tax-free now, since house prices are down 11% YOY.

[WestSideBilly]

[Markor]

Agreed. It's the moving around that makes me wary. CDs beat the S&P 500 from 1994 to 2008. I suspect it will be true again by 2011.

[Lake Hills Renter]

[TJ_98370]