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Seattle Bubble Forum Archive • View topic - Guesses on the MLS numbers for August?

Guesses on the MLS numbers for August?

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Guesses on the MLS numbers for August?

Postby EastSider » Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:13 am

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Postby Alan » Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:34 am

Last edited by Alan on Wed Aug 29, 2007 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby The Tim » Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:58 am

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Postby EastSider » Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:45 pm

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Postby rose-colored-coolaid » Wed Aug 29, 2007 3:29 pm

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Postby jillayne » Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:48 pm

Sales down 10% YOY.
Median price up 4% YOY.
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Postby The Tim » Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:13 pm

I am reluctant to venture a guess on changes in the median, since it appears to be affected more by the change in sales mix than in actual home values.
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Postby rose-colored-coolaid » Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:24 pm

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Postby Alan » Thu Aug 30, 2007 11:11 am

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Postby EastSider » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:53 pm

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Postby Alan » Sun Sep 02, 2007 10:19 pm

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Postby EastSider » Thu Sep 06, 2007 3:03 pm

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Postby deejayoh » Thu Sep 06, 2007 4:47 pm

Kingco SFH median for July was about 10.6%. Safe to say it will be less than that, but I'd bet you won't shave more than 2% off - so say 8%-ish

In terms of the chart Alan referred to, I have a better model for Case-Shiller now, which predicts M2M performance instead of Y2Y. Historical accuracy is r^2 just a shade under 80%

For June, it was pretty accurate -
____ Pred__ Actual
M2M_.53%__.65%
Y2Y__8.1%__7.9%

Corresponding August figures are .25% and 6.1% - almost a 3 point drop.

Since August is a "hot" sales month I am betting we won't see all of this change reflected in the median. C/S index is for all of King/Snoho/Pierce county SFH. The correlation between C/S and Kingco median SFH is only about 70%, mostly because C/S uses a 3 month rolling average to calculate their data so their numbers smooth out much of the volatility you see in the median
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Postby Alan » Thu Sep 06, 2007 7:19 pm

As I mentioned in another thread, I think that the last week of August had half the house closings that last week of July did.

I'm glad my somewhat hazy memory of DJO's chart was close.
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Postby deejayoh » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:48 am

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