CNNMoney suggests Seattle will drop only 2.9%

[MrRational]

They claim our peak was in 07Q3 and our bottom will be in 08Q3 with the median price down 2.3%.

(#84 on the list):

Not nearly the doom and gloom hyperbole that we see on this blog...

[The Tim]

Yeah, CNN has a great track record for these predictions so far (hint: sarcasm). had almost zero places experiencing price declines of any sort over the following year.

As an example, they predicted San Diego would be +0.90%.
Reality: Case-Shiller Index for San Diego -7.0% YOY as of May 2007.

Here's a summary:

City / CNN 05/2006 Prediction / Case/Shiller May 07 YOY
Phoenix / +6.30% / -5.55%
Los Angeles / +2.30% / -3.28%
San Diego / +0.90% / -6.96%
San Francisco / +6.30% / -3.43%
Denver / +1.10% / -1.44%
Washington / +2.60% / -6.34%
Miami / +0.80% / -3.29%
Tampa / +6.00% / -6.67%
Atlanta / +2.80% / +1.74%
Chicago / +3.40% / -0.56%
Boston / +1.10% / -4.29%
Detroit / +3.10% / -11.06%
Minneapolis / +1.90% / -3.51%
Charlotte / +3.50% / +6.99%
Las Vegas / -3.40% / -4.10%
New York / +2.10% / -2.26%
Cleveland / +4.70% / -2.78%
Portland / +7.50% / +5.71%
Dallas / +4.00% / +1.78%
Seattle / +10.50% / +9.06%

So, of the 20 Case-Shiller-tracked cities, they got the direction of change correct on six.

They did get fairly close for Seattle though, predicting +10.5%, vs. reality of +9.0%. Given how far off they were for many other cities though, it seems like it was more luck than skill.

[biliruben]

And most are predicted to be bottoming out in 2008. That would make it the shortest housing downturn EV-ER.

[carlislematthew]

[MrRational]

[carlislematthew]

[MrRational]

[The Tim]

[perfectfire]

[deejayoh]

Mr Rational is right, the forecast is for median prices - which are available from Realtor.com

Of course, I have saved you the trouble of looking. Here's the same comparison for median prices, hopefully accurately transposed...

City / CNN 05/2006 Prediction / REALTOR.Com 06-07 YOY
Phoenix / +6.30% / -2.7%
Los Angeles / +2.30% / +2.8%
San Diego / +0.90% / +0.2%
San Francisco / +6.30% / +7.6%
Denver / +1.10% / 0.0%
Washington / +2.60% / +0.3%
Miami / +0.80% / +2.0%
Tampa / +6.00% / -3.8%
Atlanta / +2.80% / +0.9%
Chicago / +3.40% / +1.7%
Boston / +1.10% / -1.9%
Detroit / +3.10% / -7.1%
Minneapolis / +1.90% / -2.5%
Charlotte / +3.50% / +8.3%
Las Vegas / -3.40% / -3.6%
New York / +2.10% / 6.3%
Cleveland / +4.70% / -7.1%
Portland / +7.50% / +5.2%
Dallas / +4.00% / +1.7%
Seattle / +10.50% / +8.9%

I guess if the goal is getting the sign right, they did ok. I think I could do as well with a dart board.

Predicting seattle is easy. Just shave 1% off the YoY appreciation every month...

[prusakolep]

[MrRational]

[SunTzu]

[carlislematthew]

[deejayoh]