Potential Hou->Redmond move

[rmiller3]

I realize I'd be moving backwards from a housing market prospective. I'm 26 and was looking at buying a house in Houston. I could get a decent 3bdrm for $120k and rent out a room or two to friends for $400/mo and come out ahead of renting even in the short term. However, I grew up in the Northeast and Houston is just way to hot and flat for me. I'm looking at jobs on the West Coast and in Colorado. I have an interview in Redmond next week.

However, real estate in the Seattle area is really discouraging, as everyone on here knows. If I like Seattle, which I think I would if I can handle the rain in the winter, I'd like to buy within a few years. I'm sick of bouncing around renting rooms for $400/mo until the roommate gets married and kicks me out. There's never enough space and I have to move every couple years. However, continuing to do that in Seattle would still be the best way to ride out the bubble.

1. Most people on here don't think homes in the Redmond area will hold value. Is there anyone that does? For example, I think Houston will hold value because of the booming oil industry and because it's so cheap to begin with. My impression of Seattle is a strong economy and very limited land for expansion. That may prop up housing prices for a longer period of time.

2. Are there any decent suburbs to the east of Redmond that are undervalued (relatively speaking)?

3. Given what I see as a delay in Seattle's decline in housing prices, how long do you think it will take the market to bottom out there? Do you think after Southern California bottoms out Seattle will continue to decline because it seems to have taken longer to start declining?

4. How much do you think Seattle is overvalued? I would never buy if my future home was suddenly worth half of what I paid. I might be willing to buy if the risk of loss was low.

Is there anyone from Houston on here? Are you happy you moved from a lifestyle perspective (not a career one)? If I devoted $300k down here, I could live in a mansion, or just take the extra money and travel the world and take vacations to the north in the summer to avoid the Houston heat and hike in the mountains. I mean, I'm too cheap to do that, but I "could" and still come out ahead.

Prices really are making me consider just settling in Houston. I'm a numbers guy and something tells me if I move to Seattle, I'd never buy a house (which I want to do) because it's always going better to just rent a room from someone and invest the difference.

For completeness sake, I'm 26, I have 100k in liquidable assets (say I'm willing to devote 30k to a down payment because I'm not selling many stocks when it's bottoming out), I make about 70k and am interviewing for a position in Seattle that pays somewhere in the 75k-90k range.

Sigh, why can't there be a nice area that's also cheap and has a good economy!

[Matthew]

Rmiller,

I spent 3 years in Houston as a kid, it was way too hot and flat for me as well, Seattle is very very different. I was raised in very sunny areas (LA, Houston, and eastern Washington) and moving to Seattle has been very difficult for me. The rain and overcast skies is very hard to take for me since I am used to sunny skies. The people out here are very different and seem to live in almost an idealistic fairy tale world.

Personally, I am looking to leave Seattle in the next year or two. If I stay in the U.S. I will probably be moving to Denver or to the east coast (HQ is in the DC metro area), otherwise I am looking for a possible overseas assignment.

I spend a lot of time in Denver for work (will be spending a couple weeks there this month) and really like it. I prefer snow and cold and sun vs. overcast and rain. I will say that the summer time in Seattle is hard to beat. It just doesn't last long. If the housing market here was more affordable, I would probably have to rethink moving. However, I don't believe that this city has anything worth paying a premium for.

[ira s]

There is a range of opinions here as far as Seattle's future:
I've read cheerleaders saying we've hit bottom and that now is a great time to buy, or that we're going to see 60%+ declines. Me, I think we have not hit bottom, but we may see the biggest declines in the next few months, then a slow downward drag til summer of 2009, then flatness for a couple of years after that.
You know, you could move out here and rent a house for far less than the cost of a mortgage, and just look around at houses..There are areas that will hold value better than others, but that too is subject to debate. East of Redmond is pretty but not at all cheap...I'd say off the top of my head that neighborhoods that are a fairly short drive to either Bellevue or Seattle and have less expensive house prices now will fare better, but who knows? Like Tukwila and the West Hill of Renton.

[david_mcmanus]

To the OP:

I am originally from the Houston area. I initially moved here for work, but have been looking about getting back down there. Salaries are on par with what they are here. Don't buy the bullcrap that it's a pay cut to move south. I received an offer with a firm last April for around 20% over what I make now for basically the same job, unfortunately, other issues prevented me from doing this. I would do this now if I found the right opportunity and I could sell my house. I should be able to get almost double what I paid for it 5 years ago, right Realtors? For 300K, I can get a REAL mansion with a pool. Yes, it does get hot there, but I'll take sun over dreariness any day. Hell, it gets hot almost everywhere but here. Property taxes are quite high (almost double than here), but I'd rather put my kids in public school down there than up here.

[rmiller3]

Well, I work for the government now, so anything would be a raise :p.

I like my job right now. I'm strictly looking at moving because I want to make more money and live somewhere "nice". However, if all the income goes to a higher mortgage payment on a small house, maybe it's not worthwhile.

Also, as discussed, if the rain grates on me I'd be very disappointed with the move. I like being outside and playing sports a lot and if leagues are cancelled for the winter I might get bored and not be happy. On the other hand, I'm assuming the mountains are very pretty and there's lots of hiking (and outdoorsy girls :p). Plus, Houston is miserable in the summer. I need to get back to somewhere cooler. I'm originally from Buffalo, which I do believe is more cloudy than Seattle. I never had a problem there, but I am used to sunny Houston now.

Maybe CO is more my speed, like Matthew. I just haven't had any bites on jobs yet .

Anyone ever been to Mountain View CA? If I take a job with Microsoft, in theory I could transfer there someday.

[Matthew]

Another thing I have noticed is that the quality of house in Houston is not even comparable to Seattle. In Houston, I lived in a custom built two story brick house with 30 ft ceilings that we sold for 210k. It was literally one of a kind and you would not see another house in the neighborhood that resembled it.

Seattle seems to be lined with these crappy craftsman POSs.

David is correct, salaries in Houston are almost identical as Seattle (I believe they are actually higher in Houston), but yet houses cost half as much and are much higher quality. Again, its a trade off... You are basically living in an extremely hot and humid climate that is nearly unbearable from June, July, and August. But in my mind, the only time that is even slightly desirable to live in Seattle is the same time period.

[david_mcmanus]

[melonleftcoast]

[Markor]

I wouldn't count on transferring to Mountain View someday. I've seen that it can be hard to transfer even to another building, if you're valued by your current group.

You can get used to the rain and overcast, but most don't ever like it. I've lived half my life in the desert. Hated the overcast for the first year I lived in the Seattle area. Now I prefer it, and get a little cranky in the summer. When I retire I want to move to someplace that gets rain more often.

You're right about the hiking; it's excellent here. I think it's even better in the Sierras in CA, but you're a lot further away from the mountains if you work in the San Fran area.

[Markor]

[uptown]

If you haven't already, I would spend a weekend up here right now to see what you think of the weather in winter. Seattle is a long way north and days are very short Nov-Feb, but the long days during the summer make up for it. The rain doesn't stop the real sportsmen/women. It's not like the gully washers you get in TX or even CA. Skiing is very close and if you like boats or fishing, it's paradise up here. Direct flights to Hawaii and Mexico make life easier in winter.

[rmiller3]

[Lake Hills Renter]

Born and raised in North Texas, moved here from Dallas over 7 years ago, and I love it here. I'll take the rain, clouds and mountains here over the blistering and flat Texas summers any day. I don't even want to go back to visit family, so I don't ever see me moving back.

[Markor]

[crucifiction]

If you end up moving, just don't buy for a while until you are sure you love it. There is no reason to buy in Seattle or anywhere right now, prices are declining everywhere and in my opinion it is a terrible idea to purchase a home immediately somewhere you have never lived. You need a year or two in an area before knowing where you'd want to buy, no matter what kind of advice people who currently live there give you. If you get the job in Seattle, then move and rent for a year or two. That is the only way you are going to know for sure if you like the area, climate, job, etc. Since you are in tech its pretty common, in my experience, to see a lot of 2-3 year stints and cross-country moving, so it should not impact your resume poorly. I've lived in Seattle, Atlanta and currently live in San Jose, CA (down the street from Mountain View) as a software dev. I could not take the oppressive summers in Atlanta, and currently hate the housing prices and crumbling infrastructure+high taxes in San Jose, so I am moving back to Seattle. Since I was born in western WA I know I can handle the climate, however I've found that most people who move there do not ever acclimate, and will just whine for a couple years and move away so don't make any big commitments (like buying a house) until you've tried it.