Is this the bottom?

[ira s]

Markor,
NWMLS lists the house as pending, as of 4/10.

[Markor]

Thanks Ira.

Did you buy it Alan?

[Alan]

[rose-colored-coolaid]

This thread has gone completely off base. The original question was 'is this the bottom?'

As such, I expected it to be a weekly reminder thread (like craigslist stats and their ilk). Each week, someone would add a brief post specifying whether or not we've hit the bottom. This would be a great resource, because anyone looking to buy could just check this thread to know if it's time.

[rose-colored-coolaid]

Not the bottom yet!

[ira s]

Things are deteriorating more quickly. The water is very murky and I can't see the bottom, but we're heading there. I'd say at least another year before we hit bottom, and then we may linger at the bottom for a while, 'sleepin with the fishes.

[biliruben]

Very, very quickly.

I am putting my house on the market, and so I studied this comps this weekend.

Even my pessimistic arse can't keep up with how far and fast this market is falling. My "price well below the market and get it sold" price that I thought would be low is now unrealistically high. I estimate Snoreline has declined 15% since last summer, and my house is losing a $1000 dollars of value a week. Motivation to stay up all night painting last night.

I can feel the temptation to chase the market as my house moves from a decent 4-year profit to a pretty clear loss, taking costs into consideration.

So the biggest 4 year Seattle house appreciation boom just plain wasn't.

Except for Ballard of course. Where's our Meshugy? I miss him.

[The Tim]

[biliruben]

Heh. Dang! He probably would have gotten a restraining order.

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[biliruben]

Hey, sure.

I'll keep you updated.

[Markor]

If you sell now you can still effectively make a mint if prices fall another 20%. Plus you'll have the advantage of knowing the odds of that happening are high. At the peak, this was still debatable; even if you know there's a bubble, you don't know when it will peak, and since the inflation of bubbles seems to accelerate toward the peak, it's risky to not be a homedebtor at the peak. Your reward/risk ratio for selling may well be the highest after the peak, and when it is apparent that the peak has passed.

I had an offer on my house near the peak, but it fell through. Had it not I would almost certainly have bought another house (I was relocating in the area, but also wary of the bubble), and probably would have lost more money over time than having sold earlier this year and renting for a spell. Of course time will tell.

My advice: make your house squeaky clean and price it in the bottom 25% of comps. If it doesn't sell after 3 weeks or 20+ buyers have seen it, lower the price by 3-5%; repeat.

[Ubersalad]

I say to go for an all or nothing. Make it nice, furnish it and try selling it the first time around.

[ARDELL]

No.

[Ubersalad]

Have you sold your house yet?