Seattle, WA MLS Update for March 2007

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Seattle, WA MLS Update for March 2007

Postby meshugy » Fri May 04, 2007 6:44 am

Seattle, WA MLS Update for March 2007

MOM #s were way up in March. Sales prices jumped 9.5%, price per sq.ft up 3.9%, days on the market down 5.1%, and total transactions up 16.9%. A really strong start for this years selling season.
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Postby biliruben » Fri May 04, 2007 6:49 am

April numbers are due out at what could be any moment. Why are you rehashing old news that spring sales are better than winter sales, Shug?
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Postby meshugy » Fri May 04, 2007 7:23 am

Hi Bili....those stats aren't available from the MLS reports. Only the Zillow blog posts price per sq ft and sold/asking price stats. Gives you a better idea of what happened last month.

BTW, our little wager is not looking to good for you right now. You predicted YOY inflation adjusted decreases in July. After the huge gains of March and most certainly more for April, I think you're in for tar and feathers.
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Postby mike2 » Fri May 04, 2007 8:44 am

We've had an impressive run since last fall. Aug 2006 per sq/ft prices were way down at $290. This month we've blown right past that record to $291 a square foot!!!

At this rate, Seattle will be as expensive as San Francisco is today well before our great great great grand children are celebrating their great grand childs birthday.
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Postby deejayoh » Fri May 04, 2007 8:47 am

MOM #s were way up in March. Sales prices jumped 9.5%, price per sq.ft up 3.9%, days on the market down 5.1%, and total transactions up 16.9%. A really strong start for this years selling season.


Do you even want to seem credible on this forum? Why not just post what Bob on the elevator told you? 9.5% increase in a month - really? you believe that? even though it is completely out of line with MLS median and Case Shiller? I mean, that is a crack-smoking estimate of the market

Check it out
- asking price has been reduced on 25% of listings
- yet price "sold" is greater than price "asked"
- and sellers are apparently getting "100%" of their asking price

yeah, that all makes sense. If you're on drugs.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
If you want people to believe you, at least you could caveat that the source you are quoting likely has low to zero credibility given their ridiculously outlandish statistics.
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Postby meshugy » Fri May 04, 2007 10:06 am

deejayoh wrote: - asking price has been reduced on 25% of listings


Hi DJ...if you look over the Zip realty reports for the last year or so, you'll see 20-25% reduced listings is totally normal. That just reflects overpriced properties coming down to reality. It's no real indication that house prices are coming down. In fact, it's been just the opposite. Prices are climbing rather quickly right now.
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Postby mike2 » Fri May 04, 2007 10:29 am

The % reduced has creeped up to 27.5% since that came out, so we're slightly above average but nowhere near the 33% reduced we were seeing last fall.

That said, I'm not sure what difference the % reduced in ziprealty's stats makes though since the NWMLS is pretty lax on agents de-listing to reset DOM and reduce prices without showing them as reduced. The numbers you're seeing are based on DOM, not CDOM - which I've never seen reported, but is the more accurate stat to use when reporting sales times and total price reductions from the initial sale offer.

With other regional MLS's cracking down on listing violations (some are fining agents $1000 each for multiple offenses!) why the NWMLS still lets this go unchecked is puzzling. Without a common set of rules, a 20% reduction rate in Seattle could be equivalent to a 50% reduction rate in SandiAngelesCisco or wherever.
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Postby deejayoh » Fri May 04, 2007 10:31 am

Hi DJ...if you look over the Zip realty reports for the last year or so, you'll see 20-25% reduced listings is totally normal. That just reflects overpriced properties coming down to reality. It's no real indication that house prices are coming down. In fact, it's been just the opposite. Prices are climbing rather quickly right now.


That may be true, but it doesn't even address the point of the internal inconsistency of the way their numbers are calculated. If asking price is lowered on even 1% of houses - then Asking/Price MUST be <100%, and Asking price MUST be higher than selling price. Since their math doesn't work, why would anyone believe anything they say?

Answer: no one does
Last edited by deejayoh on Fri May 04, 2007 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby biliruben » Fri May 04, 2007 10:42 am

BTW, our little wager is not looking to good for you right now. You predicted YOY inflation adjusted decreases in July.
-Shugadaddy

I'm feeling pretty confident. Prices have been essentially flat since last May, and inventory has just blown past the highs for the last few years and just seems to be accelerating. Hundreds more houses coming on the MLS daily, pouring on at astounding rates, and few getting bought. All these speculators who couldn't sell last summer are trying again by pouring their inventory on the market, hoping for that illusary spring bounce that failed to appear other places last year. That, on top of the flipper ultra-maroons like Seattle Eric who didn't realize flipping doesn't work at the top of the market, on top of new inventory under-cutting everything, and I worry for Seattle.

July is far enough away that there is plenty of time to for buyers to realize what a large advantage they have over sellers with so much inventory, and start to bargain or just wait 'em out.
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Postby meshugy » Fri May 04, 2007 12:05 pm

biliruben wrote: Prices have been essentially flat since last May


KC Res median was $427 last May...March 2007 it was $454. A $27K increase is flat? That's very solid appreciation by any measure...




and inventory has just blown past the highs for the last few years and just seems to be accelerating.


Just normal Spring increase. We've got pretty normal inventory if you look back a few years ago. There were over a thousand more houses on the market back in 2003.


Hundreds more houses coming on the MLS daily, pouring on at astounding rates, and few getting bought.


Maybe in Shoreline...in Ballard everything is gone within a week.

We'll, we see come July. We'll have a better idea when we see the April #s. If you're right, we should see a stall in price increase and sales in the April #s. I'm guessing that's not the case.
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Postby biliruben » Fri May 04, 2007 1:07 pm

A $27K increase is flat?

About 5%. Barely more than inflation. Up until March prices had actually been declining. I guess we will have to see if March was a blip or the start of a trend.
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Postby uptown » Fri May 04, 2007 1:15 pm

Maybe in Shoreline...in Ballard everything is gone within a week.

Well, I just found over 40 houses (not condos) on Redfin that have been listed longer than 45 days. So much for Ballard.
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Postby meshugy » Fri May 04, 2007 1:21 pm

I'm sure there real winners.... :D
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Postby deejayoh » Fri May 04, 2007 1:31 pm

Check out Zip's reports vs. MLS and I am sure you will agree that...

ZIP REALTY STATISTICS ARE WORTHLESS
Image

Shug, I notice you weren't crowing about them in July, August, or December of last year when they said the market was DOWN vs. MLS. Oh, and when you went back and looked at history, did you happen to notice they FORGOT FEBRUARY?

Gosh, I think I will give them my business. They seem like a well run organization!
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Postby meshugy » Fri May 04, 2007 1:39 pm

Hi DJ...thanks for the report. I'm glad to see you accpet the MLS #s as reality. :D
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