Oooh, fun idea. Here's a graph of some similar data. I took the Case-Shiller / S&P HPI data and lined up the "cliff" (the point where YOY appreciation peaked and began to head down for good) on each of the cities at "June 2004" on the chart.
Seattle is the thick light green line with circles, Portland is the thick light blue line with circles, and the composite-20 (which includes Seattle) is the thick orange line.
City - months from cliff to negative YOY
Detroit, MI - 11
Boston, MA - 13
Tampa, FL - 14
Phoenix, AZ - 16
Washington, DC - 18
San Francisco, CA - 19
Cleveland, OH - 19
Minneapolis, MN - 29
New York, NY - 22
San Diego, CA - 25
Average - 18.6
Composite-20 - 29
Composite-10 - 30
The following cities have not gone YOY negative yet.
City - Jan. '07 YOY - Months since cliff
Portland, OR - 8.75% - 10
Atlanta, GA - 2.30% - 12
Seattle, WA - 11.14% - 13
Dallas, TX - 0.48% - 13
Los Angeles, CA - 1.03% - 13
Chicago, IL - 2.17% - 14
Miami, FL - 4.16% - 15
Las Vegas, NV - 0.02% - 28
As you can see, we're well along the way to the same territory as the rest of the country, roaring economy or not. Just because we're taking a while to get there doesn't mean we won't.
Maybe I'll make this into a post. Thanks for the idea.
