King County SFR Inventory breaks record!!!
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deejayoh
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:14 pm
Posts: 1154
Location: Capitol Hill
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 King County SFR Inventory breaks record!!! Edit: We broke through this afternoon, we are sitting at 9209 as of 4:00pm
KingCo SFR inventory is getting close to breaking the high-water mark for this century. Sits at 9,173 right now. Record was 9,176 according to Tim's spreadsheet
As far as ancient history goes, I ran the numbers for Snoho/King/N Pierce on the same site. There are about 25,000 listings between SFR/Condos - which is close to a record there too. 
Last edited by deejayoh on Thu Jun 14, 2007 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:16 am |
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sniglet
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 2:58 pm
Posts: 679
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I assume that the inventory numbers we are tracking only include MLS listings? I wonder how much the percentage of properties NOT on MLS might have changed over the years. Is there a higher percentage of non-MLS listings today through vehicles like Redfin, etc?
Moreover, I wonder if our region might not actually be impacted MORE than other areas of the country with these new real-estate marketing/listing tools seeing as how some of the big new players are local (i.e. Redfin). If so, maybe this could explain why our local stats seem to be lagging the rest of the country at times.
Maybe if we tracked MLS listing numbers vs actual sales we could get an idea as to whether the MLS numbers were reflected a smaller number of actual sales? But I guess it would be hard to make such a conclusion from the data. If increasing numbers of homes were not being placed on the MLS the statistics would show that we had an increasingly tighter market, with more sales relative to MLS listings.
Last edited by sniglet on Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:03 pm |
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deejayoh
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:14 pm
Posts: 1154
Location: Capitol Hill
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sniglet wrote: I assume that the inventory numbers we are tracking only include MLS listings? I wonder how much the percentage of properties NOT on MLS might have changed over the years. Is there a higher percentage of non-MLS listings today through vehicles like Redfin, etc?
Moreover, I wonder if our region might not actually be impacted MORE than other areas of the country with these new real-estate marketing/listing tools seeing as how some of the big new players are local (i.e. Redfin). If so, maybe this could explain why our local stats seem to be lagging the rest of the country at times. I think Redfin and others just use MLS data. I also think FSBO tends to increase as a % of listing at the end of a boom, but not enough to make me spend much time looking into it, especially since I think we are pretty unmistakenly headed to record inventory by the end of the summer. Housingtracker.net shows inventory for Snoho and King counties (and does not include N. Pierce, as far as I can tell, in spite of what they claim) is still going up on average 2% per week, which will add another 30-40% over the summer.
that should be enough to put a fork in this sucker, no matter how much doesn't show up in the MLS
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:21 pm |
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sniglet
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 2:58 pm
Posts: 679
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deejayoh wrote: I think Redfin and others just use MLS data. Do homes listed with Redfin wind up on the MLS?
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:24 pm |
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deejayoh
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:14 pm
Posts: 1154
Location: Capitol Hill
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sniglet wrote: deejayoh wrote: I think Redfin and others just use MLS data. Do homes listed with Redfin wind up on the MLS? yes, according to their site: Quote: Redfin Direct for Sellers is a flat-fee home-selling service that combines e-commerce with the support of a local Redfin agent. We list your property in the multiple listing service (MLS), give you a yard-sign and a lockbox, then handle all the negotiations and paperwork, all for $3,000.
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:30 pm |
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The Tim
Bubble Blogging Buffoon
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 6:02 pm
Posts: 790
Location: Kenmore, WA
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September 2002: 9,176
June 14, 2007 (4:00 PM): 9,210 ( and climbing)
Also, I've wondered the same thing, about whether the percentage of total listings not on the NWMLS (i.e. - on Craigslist) is actually increasing. I don't know that there would be much difference from 2002 to the present, but I definitely think that when considering the 25,000 numbers being pulled out from the late '80s / early '90s, this could be a non-trivial factor.
For example, if in the late '80s and early '90s (pre-craigslist) only 1% of sellers sold their home FSBO, but now 5% do, that would mean that 25,000 homes on the MLS then was roughly equal to 25,253 homes on the market total. Now, 25,000 homes on the MLS would be roughly equal to 26,316 homes total.
Does anyone know of any way to track FSBOs on the market, other than the highly un-scientific Craigslist search (which includes many MLS-listed properties as well)?
_________________
For great justice.
Last edited by The Tim on Thu Jun 14, 2007 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:59 pm |
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deejayoh
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:14 pm
Posts: 1154
Location: Capitol Hill
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We Did It!
Congratulations King County. We've busted through our 7 year record for inventory.
Seattle really is special. Like on the short bus.
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 3:00 pm |
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Alan
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 7:08 pm
Posts: 780
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Is this these tipping point? Is it happening right now? Will we point to today and say this is the day and the hour that the bubble popped? These posts are getting me really excited.
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 9:15 pm |
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deejayoh
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:14 pm
Posts: 1154
Location: Capitol Hill
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Alan wrote: Is this these tipping point? Is it happening right now? Will we point to today and say this is the day and the hour that the bubble popped? These posts are getting me really excited. smart ass 
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 9:39 pm |
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Alan
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 7:08 pm
Posts: 780
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No smart assery. Just irrational exhuberance.
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:04 pm |
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EconE
Bubble Bloviator
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2007 3:29 pm
Posts: 273
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Champagne anyone? 
Tim is right on the money with his FSBO assumption although the exact number is impossible to pin down as there are so many different avenues for a FSBO to take. Also...on craigslist, there are plenty that are FSBO but are not searchable by using "FSBO" or any of the typical terms. You almost have to stumble across them, but there are plenty.
There are also "pocket listings". These are listings that are actually for sale, and have realtor representation but not on the MLS. I see them all the time in resale condos that come on the MLS already listed as STI.
Here is a recent one that I find questionable whether or not it was in fact a pocket listing due to the fact that when it came on the market 5 days ago it was already listed as STI (Yes...I saw it the very first day) and it wasn't a new construction STI where the builders hold back inventory and then list it on the MLS as STI just after selling it.
http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable ... -id=817873
There are currently 6 units listed for sale on the MLS in my building. Today...next door to me, there were a couple of stagers staging a unit that I actually thought was occupied. Of course...being the nice guy that I am...I helped them with a few things that they couldn't reach...one conversation led to another another ultimately leading me to ask how many units were for sale in the building. This is how the conversation went.
Me: I didn't realize that this unit wasn't occupied...do you know how many units are for sale in the building?
Stager: There's 12 (I wasn't surprised)
Me: You mean this building?
Stager: (with finger over lips) "shhhhhh"
Me: " Wow, I never would have imagined" (yeah...right...I see how empty the parking garage is)
I made no mention of pocket listings.
I have yet to see one of these supposed 6 MIA's on any FSBO site. How much this stager *really* knew is anybody's guess. Time will tell.
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 11:26 pm |
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EconE
Bubble Bloviator
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2007 3:29 pm
Posts: 273
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WRT builders putting condos on the MLS after they are sold here are a few that are listed as of my search of Seattle Condos using the "last day" option as I type this. There are currently 19 listings as of this time.
129 Warren Ave N 21
Seattle 98109
Offer STI
MLS# 27107068
129 Warren Ave N 19
Seattle 98109
Offer STI
MLS# 27107022
129 Warren Ave N 20
Seattle 98109
Offer STI
MLS# 27107061
312 1st Ave S 7
Seattle 98104
Offer STI
MLS# 27107092
1120 17th Ave 103
Seattle 98122
Offer STI
MLS# 27107036
129 Warren Ave N D
Seattle 98109
Offer STI
MLS# 27107046
312 1st Ave S 1
Seattle 98104
Offer STI
MLS# 27107091
123 John St 8
Seattle 98109
Offer STI
MLS# 27107049
so out of 19
7 come on as STI
7 are completely empty (no furniture at all)
2 are seemingly staged (I make no definitive statement on that...hence..."seemingly.
3 appear to be lived in
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| Thu Jun 14, 2007 11:50 pm |
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