Median price performance
Prediction here - Median price for Kingco will again be up this month. Look at last month's pending sales - you'll see they are higher than March. Shuggy will be posting like crazy tomorrow.
Here's another one of my tortured mathematical analyses to explain why it just doesn't matter what happens with median.
Many of us have pointed out a likely explanation for the continued increase in median price (despite sky high inventory, reduced sales) is that as the market has slowed down, it is the low price sales that are disappearing, skewing the median up. In other words, it is is a change in the shape of the distribution not a upward shift of the curve that is causing this phenomenon
If you watch this data, you probably know that Seattle's average price is always above median price - since there are a greater number houses that sell on the low end, the "mid point" is below the mathematical average. So for this argument to be true, the average price should be moving further away (higher) from the median price. If it is the low price sales that go away, then even if prices are stagnant - the median price will move up because there are fewer sales on the left end of the curve.
Take a look at the charts below. I compared YTD median prices for each MLS area to YTD average prices for both 2006 and 2007. When you compare average to median across areas, for 2006 the average:median ratio was 1.156:1. For 2007 it is 1.192:1. They are definitely moving apart - the spread has increase 3%.
Not conclusive, but certainly lends support to the argument that has been put forth.
Here's another one of my tortured mathematical analyses to explain why it just doesn't matter what happens with median.
Many of us have pointed out a likely explanation for the continued increase in median price (despite sky high inventory, reduced sales) is that as the market has slowed down, it is the low price sales that are disappearing, skewing the median up. In other words, it is is a change in the shape of the distribution not a upward shift of the curve that is causing this phenomenon
If you watch this data, you probably know that Seattle's average price is always above median price - since there are a greater number houses that sell on the low end, the "mid point" is below the mathematical average. So for this argument to be true, the average price should be moving further away (higher) from the median price. If it is the low price sales that go away, then even if prices are stagnant - the median price will move up because there are fewer sales on the left end of the curve.
Take a look at the charts below. I compared YTD median prices for each MLS area to YTD average prices for both 2006 and 2007. When you compare average to median across areas, for 2006 the average:median ratio was 1.156:1. For 2007 it is 1.192:1. They are definitely moving apart - the spread has increase 3%.
Not conclusive, but certainly lends support to the argument that has been put forth.
Comments
Maybe he doesn't have a way to get a sneak-peek, but it sure seeemed like it.
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingpri ... sonCounty/
Last months report was run on the 1st. We're at the 5th and still no report. Is this unusual?
As near as I can tell (and this is just from looking at dates of previous news stories posting), it looks like the NWMLS releases on the fifth work day - which this month falls on the seventh. It could be there tomorrow as last month Shug posted a pointer to that link, which was available a day before the summary links that Tim points to.
This might be a preview
Meshugy started crowing around the 3rd last month, if I recall correctly, making me think for the first time that he might have MLS access or someone is feeding him the data.
In any case, my guess, based purely on the lack of Shuggy, is that we see a modest, single digit YOY change and no change or a slight decline in the median MOM.
bili - Crowing - good analogy. but it just seemed that early cuz it was so annoying! It was actually the seventh. I know because that's the post I stole my link from
http://seattlebubble.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=229
Anyway, enough Shug speculation. It'll give him a big(ger) head.