I'll recuse myself, but if you all are saying inventory for King,Pierce, Snohomish is at 18K as of today for single family and condo's, I believe you are all quite low.
S-Crow -
I'm not even sure what that site tracks. It says seattle MSA - but I know that the 3 county area sits at 22k just for SFH as of today. Add Condos and I think it's over 26k.
That said, I figured it would be fun to to a little wagering on inventory.
It probably was a typo for the inventory numbers, however if you did put a 1 in front of the 6,690 it would be in the right ball park and would support the large increases in the 25th 50th & 75% percentiles...
In the past two weeks I have personally witnessed 2 houses sell within a day and for or over asking...the sellers were surprised. Also a good Real Estate agent friend (a quality one, really they exist) said that the last two weeks have been really good since Interest rates dipped by 25 bps at the end of June (when I locked in for my refi, and the rates jumped significantly the next day, boo ya baby!).
The counter side to this is that if rates really dipped for a week then went up significantly...so I can only conclude that the inventory numbers will move up in huge chunks once this flows through the market (takes ~30 days to get a transaction closed).
At least this is the best explanation for having 16,690 houses for sale (a decline in inventory).
With so many crappy overpriced houses on the market, it doesn't surprise me at all that a reasonably priced home in a good area would go fast, however that does not appear to be the norm according to recent inventory and sales numbers.
We're reaching that point in the year when buyers with families get desperate to find somewhere. If you come from out of town, then you need to get a house and get moved in before school starts!! If you sign a contract today, you'll be moving in mid-August at the earliest. I would expect that this could in fact reduce inventory a little right now, but more likely just temper the increase. Just a theory...
IMO, the inventory numbers will start to decrease in September/October or so as the "would like to sell" crowd goes away for the winter. The "must sell" crowd will of course stay around and brave a winter of open houses. Then the "would like to sell" will be back in full force next spring, most likely to even high inventory numbers than this spring. I also believe (someone confirm or deny) that the MLS/realtor contract is usually 6 months, and so you can expect a decent drop in inventory once a lot of the spring time listings expire.
My experience down in San Diego has showed me that it's not necessarily the absolute amount of inventory that's important, but what the ratio of "must sell" to "would like to sell" is. People that "must sell" will lower the price. The others will not.
BTW, was the the "official" 6/30 inventory something like 9400? That woudl be pretty much on the line for your chart. I remember the number from Windermere seeming a bit high at month's end.
Guys don't get me wrong, I do believe inventory is rising significantly and prices are "moderating". My prediction is that prices will turn slightly flat to negative (5% to -5% per year) in 2008 & 2009. I don't plan on selling until 2012 (due to tax reasons) and will rent it out starting in 2009 (as I will need a larger space to live in by then...probably buy another condo).
The past two weeks I have seen list prices rise strongly with quick sales. My neighbor just sold his studio condo for $185k, bought it 13 months ago for $150k, which sold on the first day. I am doing a refi and will save ~$300 bucks per month due to getting rid of my PMI and getting a lower rate since my DTI ratio is much lower than last year (will take ~9 - 10 months to recoup my refi costs). Also have a good friend doing the deal (yes she is hot) and get a 0.25% friends and family discount (I also confirmed that it wasn't just a sham gimmick they say, another gal from the same company gave me a quote exactly 0.25% higher the same day, lol). My APR is going to be 6.54% from the doc's.
BTW, was the the "official" 6/30 inventory something like 9400? That woudl be pretty much on the line for your chart. I remember the number from Windermere seeming a bit high at month's end.
Actually here at work I'm still stuck with Excel '03.
Yeah, the NWMLS report put 6/30 KC SFH inventory at 9,458, versus 9,716 on Windermere. It's odd because last month they matched so closely (8,689 NWMLS vs 8,701 Wind.), and the last time Windermere showed SFH inventory as low as 9,458 was a full week before the end of the month.
From the data that I have been keeping since 5/06 here are the YOY inventory percent changes (SFH and condo) for this week:
King Co - +79%
Pierce Co - +69%
Snohomish Co - +85%
Here are percent increases in inventory for select neighborhoods since 2/07:
Bellevue - +124%
Des Moines - +120%
Federal Way - +128%
Kent - +110%
Kirkland - +89%
Seattle - +114%
What you can't see here is the tremendous upsurge in inventory from end of June until now....it is like somebody flipped a switch and fear is setting in???
What you can't see here is the tremendous upsurge in inventory from end of June until now
I can't speak about the broader region, but in East Bellevue inventory continues to be very tight. In fact, ZipRealty continues to show the inventory creeping downwards in 98008. We are at 72 listings today, down from 85 a month ago.
"Hey Matthew. Thanks for the email. It's hard to say what changed just
yet. I see this on occasion for cities and usually it goes back to
normal within a couple of weeks. The numbers have recovered a bit
since I published the weekly data, but not nearly all the way yet.
The issue with Seattle is that they may not recover because some
broker was threatening to remove their listings from Realtor.com (HT's
main source). Read about it here:
Anyway, I'll interpolate out the bad data if it corrects itself. We
just probably need to watch it for a couple of weeks to see what's
gonna happen. Thanks again for the email. Ben"
Comments
Whoever comes closest to guessing the maximum inventory for Seattle as reported by Housingtracker.net wins, and the tiebreaker is the date....
I've got 22,100
Date: 10/15/07 (pick a monday)
I'm not even sure what that site tracks. It says seattle MSA - but I know that the 3 county area sits at 22k just for SFH as of today. Add Condos and I think it's over 26k.
That said, I figured it would be fun to to a little wagering on inventory.
December 2008
SFR
30,000
Although I don't put much confidence in my prediction.
a whopping 12,037 homes were sold from 7/2/07 to 7/9/07..WE ARE SPECIAL!!!!!
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/Washington/Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue/
seattle inventory:
07/02/2007 18,727
07/09/2007 6,690 !!????????
I don't buy the stat. There has to be a typo error.
http://housingwatch.com/regionview.aspx ... pct=50&g=m
This site gets updated every 2 days.
It probably was a typo for the inventory numbers, however if you did put a 1 in front of the 6,690 it would be in the right ball park and would support the large increases in the 25th 50th & 75% percentiles...
In the past two weeks I have personally witnessed 2 houses sell within a day and for or over asking...the sellers were surprised. Also a good Real Estate agent friend (a quality one, really they exist) said that the last two weeks have been really good since Interest rates dipped by 25 bps at the end of June (when I locked in for my refi, and the rates jumped significantly the next day, boo ya baby!).
The counter side to this is that if rates really dipped for a week then went up significantly...so I can only conclude that the inventory numbers will move up in huge chunks once this flows through the market (takes ~30 days to get a transaction closed).
At least this is the best explanation for having 16,690 houses for sale (a decline in inventory).
It's not a typo. They don't type in these numbers. It's obviously a feed, and their is something wrong with the feed.
Their more narrow numbers using their old methodology are also showing only a 3rd or so of the correct inventory.
Maybe when you hit 20K exactly, you go back to zero.
Finance, You are having a fantasy moment, indeed.
Why don't you just check the MLS for yourself? King County added another ~200 houses last week.
With so many crappy overpriced houses on the market, it doesn't surprise me at all that a reasonably priced home in a good area would go fast, however that does not appear to be the norm according to recent inventory and sales numbers.
IMO, the inventory numbers will start to decrease in September/October or so as the "would like to sell" crowd goes away for the winter. The "must sell" crowd will of course stay around and brave a winter of open houses. Then the "would like to sell" will be back in full force next spring, most likely to even high inventory numbers than this spring. I also believe (someone confirm or deny) that the MLS/realtor contract is usually 6 months, and so you can expect a decent drop in inventory once a lot of the spring time listings expire.
My experience down in San Diego has showed me that it's not necessarily the absolute amount of inventory that's important, but what the ratio of "must sell" to "would like to sell" is. People that "must sell" will lower the price. The others will not.
A slight dip during the holiday week, and now pressing onward to new heights.
Definitely not a 60%+ drop.
BTW, was the the "official" 6/30 inventory something like 9400? That woudl be pretty much on the line for your chart. I remember the number from Windermere seeming a bit high at month's end.
The past two weeks I have seen list prices rise strongly with quick sales. My neighbor just sold his studio condo for $185k, bought it 13 months ago for $150k, which sold on the first day. I am doing a refi and will save ~$300 bucks per month due to getting rid of my PMI and getting a lower rate since my DTI ratio is much lower than last year (will take ~9 - 10 months to recoup my refi costs). Also have a good friend doing the deal (yes she is hot) and get a 0.25% friends and family discount (I also confirmed that it wasn't just a sham gimmick they say, another gal from the same company gave me a quote exactly 0.25% higher the same day, lol). My APR is going to be 6.54% from the doc's.
Yeah, the NWMLS report put 6/30 KC SFH inventory at 9,458, versus 9,716 on Windermere. It's odd because last month they matched so closely (8,689 NWMLS vs 8,701 Wind.), and the last time Windermere showed SFH inventory as low as 9,458 was a full week before the end of the month.
King Co - +79%
Pierce Co - +69%
Snohomish Co - +85%
Here are percent increases in inventory for select neighborhoods since 2/07:
Bellevue - +124%
Des Moines - +120%
Federal Way - +128%
Kent - +110%
Kirkland - +89%
Seattle - +114%
What you can't see here is the tremendous upsurge in inventory from end of June until now....it is like somebody flipped a switch and fear is setting in???
I can't speak about the broader region, but in East Bellevue inventory continues to be very tight. In fact, ZipRealty continues to show the inventory creeping downwards in 98008. We are at 72 listings today, down from 85 a month ago.
"Hey Matthew. Thanks for the email. It's hard to say what changed just
yet. I see this on occasion for cities and usually it goes back to
normal within a couple of weeks. The numbers have recovered a bit
since I published the weekly data, but not nearly all the way yet.
The issue with Seattle is that they may not recover because some
broker was threatening to remove their listings from Realtor.com (HT's
main source). Read about it here:
http://seattlehousingbuzz.com/2007/04/m ... et-listing
Anyway, I'll interpolate out the bad data if it corrects itself. We
just probably need to watch it for a couple of weeks to see what's
gonna happen. Thanks again for the email. Ben"