Before we begin May’s reporting roundup, let’s have a little review of the year so far.
January
Barb Lamoureux, owner and broker with Lamoureux Real Estate in Everett, said the typical slow December market is over. She’s seen signs the market is picking up, including a significant increase in open house traffic and even some multiple offers on properties. Her agents are expecting a busy spring.
February
February housing activity around western Washington signaled signs of an emerging spring market with a noticeable increase in open house traffic, reports of multiple offers and a big jump in pending sales from the previous month.
March
NWMLS director Dick Beeson believes the local market has “reached bottom – or pretty darn close.” Even though inventory continues to grow, Beeson acknowledged, “so does optimism among buyers, sellers and agents.”
April
Spring did start slowly, said Coldwell Banker Bain agent Margo Hass Klein. But she said traffic in the last couple of weeks has increased by at least 10 percent at open houses.
May
“We still haven’t had summer hit us yet as the weather remains cool, wet and cloudy. I expect both temperatures and the market to heat up as summer approaches,” commented Dick Beeson, broker/owner at Windermere/Commencement Associates in Tacoma. “Open house traffic is picking up and buyers are coming off the sidelines to make buying decisions.”
I’m starting to wonder if maybe, just maybe “open house traffic” isn’t quite the best measure of real estate market health.
Read on for the this month’s roundup with all the blind real estate agent optimism you can eat.
Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times:
Home prices remain soft, inventory remains high and interest rates are relatively low — all of which point to a buyer’s market. With interest rates at their highest levels since mid-March and likely to go up, it would seem that buyers would get off the fence.
But sluggish sales say buyers remain unconvinced.
Proof is in median prices of single-family homes, which declined year-over-year in King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties, according to statistics released Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
Teresa Darragh, an agent in one of John L. Scott’s West Seattle offices, said the lack of pressure is allowing buyers to make thoughtful decisions.“They’re able to take some time to look at the market and the inventory,” Darragh said. She also said prices in her area are down about 5 percent.
How great that agents are suddenly so concerned about a buyer’s ability to make “thoughtful decisions.”
In a surprising change of pace, Ms. Rhodes also has an article out today that focuses on the meaty subject of financing: Higher hurdles to home loans slow real estate sales in Puget Sound region. Be sure to check that one out too.
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Home buyers, it’s your time to haggle
Ewan Hruska and Leya Barr plan to buy a house in Seattle — if they can sell their home, which has been on the market in Shoreline since October.
“We have our price point that we can’t go below,” Barr said, outside of an open house in Greenwood late last month. “It’s made it difficult to price it to move.”
They estimated between 60 and 80 people have toured the house.
“We’ve never had a problem with viewings,” Barr said. “It’s just, we haven’t had an offer.”
Nice. I get the impression that maybe Aubrey is as tired of the “traffic at open houses” nonsense as I am.
“There is clearly some bargain hunting going on,” said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University. “Certainly there are some sellers out there that are panicking a little bit. Their homes have been on the market much longer than they had been accustomed to seeing homes on the market, so they have been accepting some disappointing offers.”
But the decreases are greater than what the market merits, Crellin said. “(I) don’t see that we should be having the degree of problems that these numbers are implying.”
Oh man, that’s rich. Prices are off just 8.5% from their peak, and Crellin’s freaking out. Granted, he’s been doing the real estate analysis gig longer than I have, but honestly Glenn, are you really that surprised? I think we’re just getting started. Of course, a good amount of Crellin’s WCRER funding comes from Realtors (more on that later this month), so I suppose that comments like those should be expected.
Mike Benbow, Everett Herald: Snohomish County home sales slow in May
Some brokers blamed newspaper reports on the national economy and poor housing for the lack of an expected revival in local sales. Others said the continued cold weather hasn’t helped.
Ok let me stop that one right there for a minute. How can real estate agents—with a straight face—blame the weather for slow sales? Do they seriously believe that there are people out there saying “gosh honey, I know we were planning to buy a home this month, but gosh darnit, would you look at that rain—let’s just wait until it’s sunny”? Really?
“There are such great opportunities for buyers right now to position themselves for the future,” J. Lennox Scott, chairman and chief executive of John L. Scott Real Estate, said in a news release.
…
“Buyers are realizing that interest rates may creep up, and they would be in a worse position if rates went up 1 percent than if prices fell 5 percent,” [MLS Director Dick Beeson] said.Mike Skahen, a multiple listing service director of Lake & Co. Real Estate in Seattle, said there really wasn’t a spring buying season this year as people stayed on the sidelines to see what would happen with prices.
“When the press gets less negative,” he said. “It’s going to push buyers off the fence and they’ll regret having waited.
Nice. Notice how the tone of agents has shifted somewhat in the last few months. It’s become almost threatening. “You’ll regret this…” Classy.
Devona Wells, Tacoma News Tribune: It’s spring, but home prices fall
…spring is the time of year when agents and brokers expect to see business picking up. Instead, prices have hovered around the $260,000 mark since January and the number of sales, while moving north from February through April, dropped on a month-to-month basis in May.
…
Buyers remain hesitant but sellers are getting a better handle on today’s market, said Dick Beeson, an MLS director and Windermere broker. Still, more whittling of inventory would help, considering how long some of today’s listings have been on the market and that some remain overpriced, he said.Real estate agents, he said, are having heart-to-heart sit downs with sellers and turning down properties they might have previously tried to market.
“Agents are finding they can’t spend their time on properties that aren’t sellable,” he said. “You get real with the market, no more hoping. It’s reality time.”
…says Mr. “I expect both temperatures and the market to heat up as summer approaches.”
Jim Szymanski, The Olympian: Home sales down 32 percent from ’07
Some agents say the dropping numbers mean it is a good time to shop for real estate because many homes are available.
“People are hanging on to their wallets,” said Blake Knoblauch, an agent with Greene Realty Group of Thurston County. “Buyers are waiting to see the bottom of the market, but we don’t know when we’re going to see the bottom. For all we know, it could be now.”
Ah yes, the “better not try to time the bottom” nonsense. Of course, for all we know, the bottom could be 2012, and today’s buyers will be kicking themselves a year from now. Also, we’ve already shown that today’s “fence sitters” have nothing to lose by waiting it out, so the argument really doesn’t hold water.
(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times, 06.05.2008)
(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times, 06.06.2008)
(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times, 06.06.2008)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 06.05.2008)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 06.06.2008)
(Devona Wells, Tacoma News Tribune, 06.06.2008)
(Jim Szymanski, Olympian, 06.06.2008)