This is coming later than usual this month due to Bottom-Calling Week, but let’s take a look at January’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.
January MOS for King County as a whole backed down from December’s record high, coming in at 7.77 (compared to 7.54 for January 2008), bringing the record run of 6+ MOS to seventeen months.
In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of February 2008 through January 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). I had been trying to keep the graphs on the same vertical scale, but with MOS skyrocketing in a handful of areas in the Eastside and Vashon, I gave up on that. The charts still all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.
Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely understating the magnitude of the “buyer’s market.”
We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. January 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.
Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.
Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.
Months of supply generally declined in most areas across King County, with six neighborhoods registering as “sellers’ markets” with under 6.0 MOS—Jovita/West Hill Auburn (110), Renton Highlands / Kennydale (350), Beacon Hill (385), Ballard (705), North Seattle (710), and Shoreline (715).
The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper also backed off slightly, but remained in “buyer’s market” territory at 6.51 in January. The Eastside as a whole dropped three points down to 10.14.
Fifteen of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Six neighborhoods were above 10 MOS (compared to 12 last month), firmly in buyer’s market territory.
The three toughest markets for sellers were Mercer Island (510) at 46.0 (no that’s not a typo—there were only 3 pending sales on the entire island), Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 14.2, and Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 12.7. 520 yet again extended its 10+ MOS streak, now at 17 months.
The three best markets for sellers as of last month were: Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.5, North Seattle (710) at 4.6, and Shoreline (715) at 4.8.