Weekly Twitter Digest (Link Roundup) for 2011-06-11

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

6 comments:

  1. 1
    Lurker says:

    Nonsense. My boxes and boxes of comic books will come back and I’ll be rich!!!rich I tell you!!

  2. 2
    Blurtman says:

    C’mom, people, there’s a freaking waterfall in the back yard!

    21420 SE 5th Pl Sammamish, WA 98074

  3. 3
  4. 4
    Scotsman says:

    Kudos to Jon Talton who gives a good summary of the current situation. Unfortunately he fails to make the last connection- housing isn’t coming back. The fact that housing and new construction have traditionally been about 6-8% of GDP leaves a big hole to fill. But for the last decade or so it was a false demand, driven not by shortages, but by easy credit and speculation. He’s right that we need jobs and income growth. But I wouldn’t look for them to come in housing- more likely infrastructure construction, maybe some tariff facilitated manufacturing, or energy production.

  5. 5
    One Eyed Man says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 4

    So, in the big (long-term) picture, is this to a large degree just a classic inventory recession, but in a high-end, long cycle asset class that will take a long time (another 5 yrs?) to burn off? Of course that ignores a number of other issues like the public sector spending, debt and regulatory issues, not to mention cheap foreign manufacturing competition and reliance on foreign resources. But in the early 2000’s we had perhaps 1% or 2% exaggerated GDP and employment from excess housing demand (pushed by low rates and animal spirits), and now we’re seeing the 1% or 2% loss of GDP and employment while we burn off the inventory. Will that be the text book economic history for the last 10 yrs with all the fraud and financial crisis thrown in as dramatic chapters in the subplot? And will all the other public sector issues be segregated into a sequel that’s still being played out?

  6. 6
    Scotsman says:

    RE: One Eyed Man @ 5

    That’s a nice take on things. It’s certainly a confluence of events- housing is being hit hard now in part by excess inventory. But I’m pretty sure you’d agree this, as you say, is the bigger story:

    ” a number of other issues like the public sector spending, debt and regulatory issues, not to mention cheap foreign manufacturing competition and reliance on foreign resources”

    That one simple sentence translates into decades of corrective action, if we can hold it together. And don’t forget the frosting on this tasty treat- the aging of the boomer generation.

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