Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Keep Powering Up, Up, Up

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to May data that was released this morning, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.4 percent April to May
Up 10.7 percent YOY.
Up 3.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 1.4 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 7.4 percent.

The Seattle area’s Case-Shiller home price index hit another new all-time high in May, but dropped from the largest month-over-month gain of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities in April to number four in May.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes was at #1 in March and April, but dropped to #4 in May.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

In May, just one of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked metro areas gained more year-over-year than Seattle (the same as February and March):

  • Portland at +12.5%

The Northwest continues its reign on top as literally the envy of other states.

The same seven cities that hit new all-time highs in April did so again in May: Boston, Seattle, Charlotte, San Francisco, Denver, Portland, and Dallas.

Eighteen metro areas gained less than Seattle as of May: Denver, Dallas, Tampa, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Washington, and New York.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through May.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 106 months since the price peak in Seattle prices are up 3.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for our monthly look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2016-07-26)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

40 comments:

  1. 1
    Macro Investor says:

    Seattle and Portland are both in the top 4. So I guess pot smoking is the most important reason people will move.

    What a country! We deserve Hillary.

  2. 2

    After discussing how the month to month increases, as a percentage, have been decreasing, the Seattle Times notes:

    Still, the increase was enough for Seattle to set a new all-time high for the third straight month, after the region earlier this spring surpassed its previous peak from summer 2007.

    Maybe I don’t understand somehow how statistics work, but wouldn’t ANY INCREASE have made that happen? ;-)

  3. 3
    Scotsman says:

    Chicago is #1? Why? And surprised we don’t hear more about Portland.

  4. 4
    LetsgoSounders says:

    Portland seems really out of whack. Who are the major employers there outside of Nike and Intel? Salaries there were pretty average when I lived there. I was down there recently and it seems just as spendy as Seattle.

  5. 5

    RE: LetsgoSounders @ 4RE: Scotsman @ 3 – Note these are percentage change. The rankings could be entirely different if they were in increases in absolute dollars (e.g. the median rose $5,000). Note that Detroit is number 6. Probably means the average price there rose $5. (Its index number is barely over 100.)

  6. 6
    ess says:

    By LetsgoSounders @ 4:

    Portland seems really out of whack. Who are the major employers there outside of Nike and Intel? Salaries there were pretty average when I lived there. I was down there recently and it seems just as spendy as Seattle.

    Remember, Portland is considered a hip and happening place for the young, fairly inexpensive as compared to most major west coast cities, and Oregon has its own aggressive version of an urban growth management act that limits growth and thus increases real estate prices. I lived in the area for two years – nice area – but I consider the Puget Sound area much more attractive than Portland.

  7. 7
    pfft says:

    By Macro Investor @ 1:

    Seattle and Portland are both in the top 4. So I guess pot smoking is the most important reason people will move.

    What a country! We deserve Hillary.

    yes we do!

  8. 8
    David B. says:

    RE: LetsgoSounders @ 4 – I’ve lived in Portland twice. The Bohemian counterculture there is nice but the local economy generally sucks.

    Housing is less than Seattle but compared to how much jobs pay there is really expensive. Plus the two worst bosses I ever had were in Portland; too many employers there figure employees will put up with crap bosses, crap pay, and crap benefits just to live in Portland (and in many cases, they’re right).

    Myself, I realized that if eight hours of every day sucks for five days a week, life in general sucks and all the counterculture in the world can’t make up for it. I have no plans to move back to Portland.

    I believe a lot of Portland’s attraction is to retiring Californians, who can cash out on their high housing costs, move to Portland, buy a house for much less money, and retire early on the proceeds.

  9. 9
  10. 10
    Scotsman says:

    Kary makes a great point, something we too often forget- relative rates of change are only part of the story. I’m just surprised to see it toward the top of the list- my impression is that there still isn’t much of an economy down there outside of a couple of well established players, and it is a much smaller metro area. Kinda like talking about Spokane…..

  11. 11
    Screenname345 says:

    It was crazy spendy when I visited a few weeks ago. Maybe a bunch of people are retiring there from the Bay Area. I saw many fancy sports cars as well. Seemed to have changed alot since I was last down a few years ago. I bet a condo in the Pearl District is not much less than one here downtown. Is there a PortlandBubble blog up yet?

  12. 12
    Doug says:

    RE: Screenname345 @ 11 – Don’t doubt that, but why would bay area retirees choose Portland when they could live 5 minutes away in Vancouver and avoid state income tax?

  13. 13
    Screenname345 says:

    Have you spent time in Vancouver Doug?

  14. 14
    Som says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 1 – No. We deserve the Hossain family that also goes by last name Trump. Uday and Qusay and their daddy Saddam is what we deserve.

    Stupid sheep like you should go to the middle east and live in a dictatorship.

  15. 15
    Doug says:

    RE: Screenname345 @ 13 – Haha…touche.

  16. 16

    By Doug @ 12:

    RE: Screenname345 @ 11 – Don’t doubt that, but why would bay area retirees choose Portland when they could live 5 minutes away in Vancouver and avoid state income tax?

    Because their retirement sucks and they therefore don’t pay much income tax? ;-)

  17. 17
    Blake says:

    By pfft @ 7:

    By Macro Investor @ 1:

    What a country! We deserve Hillary.

    yes we do!

    Worst candidate(s) EVER!
    What irony… the only way Trump or Hillary could win is that they are running against themselves!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/25/4-brutal-poll-numbers-that-greet-hillary-clinton-at-the-democratic-national-convention/
    68 percent say Clinton isn’t honest and trustworthy… It’s up from 65 percent earlier this month and 59 percent in May. (A separate CBS poll has it at 67%) CBS showed just 31 percent have favorable views of Clinton and 56 percent have unfavorable ones. Even in Trump’s worst days on the campaign trail, he has rarely dipped below a 31 percent favorable rating. Clinton has hit that number a few times, but her negative-25 net favorable rating here is tied for the worst of her campaign, according to Huffington Post Pollster. (end quote)

    I guess that’s what happens when the FBI Director holds a press conference that puts to the lie almost all your statements about your private e-mail system! Just wait for the Trump commercials cutting between Hillary’s May 2015 press conference statements and Comey’s press conference statements… people say she is smart, but who in their right mind would have told all those lies at a press conference in May 2015?

    Her crowning achievement may be helping elect Trump! Consider this: If we assume that sophisticated Russian hackers penetrated the DNC’s servers, then it is also likely that they also penetrated Hillary’s half-baked home system!! Therefore we should expect an October Surprise dump of emails from Hillary’s State Department days, including unredacted classified emails… as Comey noted she had!! So Hillary’s imperious behavior may be responsible for electing Trump!
    She is arrogant… and stupid.
    Trump is worse…
    We are so f*cked!

  18. 18
    ess says:

    By Blake @ 17:

    By pfft @ 7:

    By Macro Investor @ 1:

    What a country! We deserve Hillary.

    yes we do!

    Worst candidate(s) EVER!
    What irony… the only way Trump or Hillary could win is that they are running against themselves!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/25/4-brutal-poll-numbers-that-greet-hillary-clinton-at-the-democratic-national-convention/
    68 percent say Clinton isn’t honest and trustworthy… It’s up from 65 percent earlier this month and 59 percent in May. (A separate CBS poll has it at 67%) CBS showed just 31 percent have favorable views of Clinton and 56 percent have unfavorable ones. Even in Trump’s worst days on the campaign trail, he has rarely dipped below a 31 percent favorable rating. Clinton has hit that number a few times, but her negative-25 net favorable rating here is tied for the worst of her campaign, according to Huffington Post Pollster. (end quote)

    I guess that’s what happens when the FBI Director holds a press conference that puts to the lie almost all your statements about your private e-mail system! Just wait for the Trump commercials cutting between Hillary’s May 2015 press conference statements and Comey’s press conference statements… people say she is smart, but who in their right mind would have told all those lies at a press conference in May 2015?

    Her crowning achievement may be helping elect Trump! Consider this: If we assume that sophisticated Russian hackers penetrated the DNC’s servers, then it is also likely that they also penetrated Hillary’s half-baked home system!! Therefore we should expect an October Surprise dump of emails from Hillary’s State Department days, including unredacted classified emails… as Comey noted she had!! So Hillary’s imperious behavior may be responsible for electing Trump!
    She is arrogant… and stupid.
    Trump is worse…
    We are so f*cked!

    Depressing – isn’t it?

  19. 19
    Weasel says:

    One good thing about this is I should be-able to get rid of my PMI, and we’re only 1.5 years into our first home.

    The most recent county tax assessment value alone gives me enough “gain” to request the removal of the PMI based on the formulas I can find.

    Just waiting for the house across the street to sell first as it’ll lift the bar for our street – based on what I can find out about getting PMI removed, the lender will send someone around to value the house which will also take into consideration near by sales.

  20. 20
    Weasel says:

    RE: Blake @ 17 – We all get off topic, but keep this kind of politics/ranting elsewhere.

  21. 21
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 1

    …Or we home buyers and investors are just as high as the prices…

    Soon it’s all up in smoke!

  22. 22
    Marc says:

    RE: Weasel @ 19 – I hope you are right but I would not take it as a given. In recent years many lenders revised the language in the mortgage insurance provisions to make it much more difficult for the borrower to remove it. You should review your promissory note, deed of trust, and the mortgage insurance agreement that you signed at closing to see the specific terms you are subject to and not simply what you found online. It can and does vary particularly across different vintages of loans.

    If that fails, you can always consider a refinance. Rates have dropped since a year and a half ago plus your loan type will be different if values have increased sufficiently putting you at an 80% LTV or better and that means better overall terms. Of course, that’s no sure thing because appraisers in a refinance setting are often conservative and come up with valuations that do not reflect what the current “sellers’ market” is likely to actually bear.

  23. 23
    Marc says:

    RE: Green-Horn @ 21 – I think there’s little doubt that this market is “high” but it is not irrational. It is simply responding to the variables in play. Thanks to the Fed and all the other central banks, QE, ZIRP, and NIRP have sent us all on an express train to a new financial world. To be fair, this new world has been long in the making and was not constructed by central banks alone. We are experiencing a confluence of events, trends, and large phenomena not the least of which are dramatically improved communication, transportation, globalization, etc. It could all work out great or relatively benign but I am somewhat pessimistic in the near term. I expect the economy to go off the tracks relatively soon (sometime in next 6 to 36 months) and the next president, whether Trump or Hillary, will be blamed for a global recession that they did not cause and cannot stop. The underpinnings and the magnitude of the issues are far larger than the president of the US of A. At most, the next POTUS will merely speed up its onset through poor policy decisions or delay it a bit with good ones.

    Lot of people will suffer (again) but, eventually, this too shall pass. The republic will survive and yes, most of the rich will stay rich and some will get richer. Let us hope and pray that the douchebag rich lose it all (I’m looking at you Kardashians).

  24. 24
    Blurtman says:

    Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER

  25. 25

    RE: Marc @ 23 – One of those events/trends would be many people having avoided buying houses for about six or seven years. That means you have a larger group of people looking now than what you normally would. It’s similar to the effect that happens after a lull in new car sales, although for different reasons.

  26. 26
    pfft says:

    By Blake @ 17:

    By pfft @ 7:

    By Macro Investor @ 1:

    What a country! We deserve Hillary.

    yes we do!

    Worst candidate(s) EVER!
    What irony… the only way Trump or Hillary could win is that they are running against themselves!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/25/4-brutal-poll-numbers-that-greet-hillary-clinton-at-the-democratic-national-convention/
    68 percent say Clinton isn’t honest and trustworthy… It’s up from 65 percent earlier this month and 59 percent in May. (A separate CBS poll has it at 67%) CBS showed just 31 percent have favorable views of Clinton and 56 percent have unfavorable ones. Even in Trump’s worst days on the campaign trail, he has rarely dipped below a 31 percent favorable rating. Clinton has hit that number a few times, but her negative-25 net favorable rating here is tied for the worst of her campaign, according to Huffington Post Pollster. (end quote)

    I guess that’s what happens when the FBI Director holds a press conference that puts to the lie almost all your statements about your private e-mail system! Just wait for the Trump commercials cutting between Hillary’s May 2015 press conference statements and Comey’s press conference statements… people say she is smart, but who in their right mind would have told all those lies at a press conference in May 2015?

    Her crowning achievement may be helping elect Trump! Consider this: If we assume that sophisticated Russian hackers penetrated the DNC’s servers, then it is also likely that they also penetrated Hillary’s half-baked home system!! Therefore we should expect an October Surprise dump of emails from Hillary’s State Department days, including unredacted classified emails… as Comey noted she had!! So Hillary’s imperious behavior may be responsible for electing Trump!
    She is arrogant… and stupid.
    Trump is worse…
    We are so f*cked!

    Hillary is one of the most qualified persons to ever seek office. She is miles better than Trump. She’s going to be a great president. she is one of the most popular politicians in the world!

    “I guess that’s what happens when the FBI Director holds a press conference that puts to the lie almost all your statements”

    that is not true at all. the state dept disagreed with much of his assessment. apparently her server was more secure than the DNC’s.

    “68 percent say Clinton isn’t honest and trustworthy”

    that’s because the right has spent 25 years saying that she is a terrible person. the media also only reports negative stories about her. most stories about her in the media are negative, even more so than trump. the media loves a good negative clinton story. Don’t you remember the 90s?

  27. 27
    Erik says:

    RE: Weasel @ 20
    Thank you for that. Blake is a strung out drug addict that rants about off topic garbage.

  28. 28
    Erik says:

    Great report Tim! I need about 3 more years of these increases. Then I can sell to some unsuspecting code monkey before the market crashes again. If the market doesn’t go up as quickly, I will rent to a code monkey until they pay my mortgage.

    One sign of a bubble is that there wasn’t much price decrease last winter. I think that may happen again this winter based on similar inventory and demand. Yay!!! $:)$

  29. 29

    By pfft @ 26:

    that is not true at all. the state dept disagreed with much of his assessment. apparently her server was more secure than the DNC’s.

    I was somewhat amazed when the Dems started claiming the hack was the Russians because that would mean it was almost certain that Hillary’s less secure server was also hacked by foreign powers. Then I realized they would try to make the absurd argument pfft just made–that this somehow shows her server was secure. Total nonsense.

  30. 30
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Blake @ 17 – We are living in a new era, comrade. Not a corrupt Politburo, exactly, but quite the same thing, and party corruption is about the same.

    At least the police are not shooting people in the street.

    RE Bulletin!!!!! – And they paid the listing price of $760,000 in cash, no negotiating. The neighborhood patrol says a Chinese family purchased it for their son and daughter-in-law.

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/312-211th-pl-se,-sammamish,-wa-98074_rb/?fromHomePage=true&shouldFireSellPageImplicitClaimGA=false

    At the price per Sq. Ft. of $288, my stunning Craftsman is getting close to $900,000. When it hits a million, I sell, and become a Republican.

  31. 31
    Macro Investor says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 29:

    I was somewhat amazed when the Dems started claiming the hack was the Russians

    She insisted that her server have NO PASSWORDS, so it is 100 percent certain that data was stolen. I’m not even sure you can call that a “hack”. Can you claim trespassing when you leave your front door wide open?

    Funny stuff. In 1800 we had great individuals like Washington and Jefferson. In our lifetimes, the best from either party were merely average people. I thought Bush and Obama were scraping the bottom of the bowl. What’s next after this pair? An illegal alien who needs help reading a menu?

  32. 32
    pfft says:

    By Macro Investor @ 31:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 29:

    In 1800 we had great individuals like Washington and Jefferson.

    slaveholders were great people? between them they owned almost 1,000 slaves.

    you’re being ridiculous.

  33. 33
    Blake says:

    RE: pfft @ 26
    “68 percent say Clinton isn’t honest and trustworthy”

    Pfft wrote: “that’s because the right has spent 25 years saying that she is a terrible person.”

    It’s a real shame she hasn’t had the chance to talk to the American people… maybe give some interviews, a few debates, or a press conference… hah!
    Fact is pfft.. she is dishonest. You really think the FBI Director made up that stuff and lied about her emails!?? Really??
    (Of course you do…)

    Weasel, Erik… I’m not off topic. You think if that loon Trump gets elected it’ll be good for America, our economy… our real estate market? The fact that our political system elevates these two truly horrible candidates reflects the entrenched corruption not only in our political system, but also our economy. The system of checks and balances is BROKEN and that is why we should be pessimistic…

  34. 34
    Som says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 31 -Miniver Cheevy, Jefferson was a great man? Kept a whore on call. Called slavery a “good business” (not “good for business”).

    You are either stupid or senile.

  35. 35
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Som @ 34 – Thanks for illustrating your progressive and tolerant attitude there, Som! Have you considered moving to Canada?

  36. 36
    Som says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 35 – Oh the irony. Yes we will be tolerant of the bigots and only refer to them as our masters.

    Go pray to your supreme leader you buffoon.

  37. 37
    redmondjp says:

    By Som @ 36:

    RE: redmondjp @ 35 – Oh the irony. Yes we will be tolerant of the bigots and only refer to them as our masters.

    Go pray to your supreme leader you buffoon.

    Why so angry, Som? Are you upset because Bernie didn’t win the Democratic nomination? No longer feeling the bern, perhaps?

    Hillary said that she believes in science tonight. It’s good when your supreme leaders have faith in something. Heil Hillary!!! That just rolls right off the tongue.

  38. 38
    JoJo says:

    Moved to Portland last summer from the Seattle’s East side …wife got a job and we relocated..I am making same $ as a software dev and was able to find a house close in (6 miles to down town)…taxes are more, but the transit is much better along with laid back quality of life…Also, Weather is much better from my personal observation.
    When I left last summer, I was taking the 218 to downtown from Highlands…absolutely could not stand commuting to downtown on that bus..completely packed.. Seattle was too much and I do not miss it..
    I did keep the house though ;)

  39. 39
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: JoJo @ 38 – Glad you are enjoying Portland. I am sure the Cheerleading Squad will descend up this comment in full force, but you don’t need to move too far away to reclaim quality of life, but still enjoy the types of things you originally loved about Seattle.

  40. 40
    Blurtman says:

    RE: JoJo @ 38 – The Highlands! What were you thinking?

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