Case-Shiller: Seattle kicks off 2018 with surging home prices

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to January data that was released this week, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 0.7 percent December to January
Up 12.9 percent year-over-year.
Up 21.8 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 0.6 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 11.3 percent.

Seattle still leads the nation in year-over-year price growth. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier are Las Vegas at 11.1 percent and San Francisco at 10.3 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes fell off steeply late last year but in January it surged back to #2.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth has now been the highest in the nation for over a year, ever since passing Portland in September 2016.

Seven metro areas hit new all-time highs in January: San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through January.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 126 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 21.8 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Here are a couple stories about this month’s numbers:

Check back tomorrow for our look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-03-27)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    Bitcoinbubbles says:

    To the moon Alice, to the moon.

  2. 2
    sleepless says:

    In the meantime the stock market is tanking. I wonder how the big tech hiring freeze would affect the stock market.

  3. 3

    RE: sleepless @ 2
    Trump Hates Amazon

    His Billionaire Friends don’t like the CEO Bezos because he’s stealing from local retailers….Face Book has to worry too over data breaches….high tech is in big trouble lately. Meanwhile the swamp draining is sucking Washington DC dry of money…..the deep state is getting thinner.

  4. 4

    Scarce Seattle Area Jobs Not Going to Legal Citizens?

    He’s firing legal citizens in stealth this way?

  5. 5
    uwp says:

    Should the first changes breakout say that CS HPI was Up month-to-month, rather than down?

  6. 6
    The Tim says:

    RE: uwp @ 5 – Doh! Yes, you’re right of course. Fixed. Thanks for pointing out.

  7. 7
    Doug says:

    Those mortgage rates sure are exploding higher!

    10y back to 2.77% and 10s minus 2s at 49 bps — the lowest the spread has been since August 2007.

  8. 8

    By Bitcoinbubbles @ 1:

    To the moon Alice, to the moon.

    I’m not sure you know what that means. It’s a threat of domestic violence.

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