Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $373,070 (up 0.2%)
- Mid Tier: $373,070 – $604,377
- Hi Tier: > $604,377 (up 0.3%)
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through January 2018.
Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:
All three tiers are hitting new highs and setting up for another year of crazy gains. I keep hoping at some point we’ll see some sign of a slowdown, but so far… nothing.
Between December and January, the low tier increased 1.1 percent, the middle tier rose 0.5 percent, and the high tier was up 0.7 percent.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through January 2018.
Year-over-year price growth in January is well into double digits for all three tiers. The last time any tier was below 10 percent year-over-year growth was December 2016. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of January – Low: +14.1 percent, Med: +12.1 percent, Hi: +13.0 percent.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted earlier this week for the various Case-Shiller markets, but looking only at the Seattle tiers. All three tiers are well above their previous peak levels.
Current standing is 13.3 percent above the 2007 peak for the low tier, 19.0 percent above the 2007 peak for the middle tier, and 25.1 percent above the 2007 peak for the high tier.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-03-27)