Case-Shiller: Seattle home prices rising fastest in the nation

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to February data that was released this morning, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.7 percent January to February
Up 12.7 percent year-over-year.
Up 23.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 1.8 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.1 percent.

Seattle leads the nation in both year-over-year and month-over-month home price growth. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier are Las Vegas at 11.6 percent and San Francisco at 10.1 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes fell off steeply late last year but jumped back to #1 in February.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth is still the highest in the nation. The streak has been alive for eighteen months.

Ten metro areas hit new all-time highs in February: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle. February marks the first time that Los Angeles and San Diego have passed their 2005/2006 high points.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through February.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 127 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 23.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Here’s the story on this month’s numbers from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home price growth from current boom has surpassed last decade’s bubble

Check back tomorrow for our look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-04-24)


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

1,054 comments:

  1. 751
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 748:

    RE: pfft @ 745
    Seattle is asking for money and giving amazon nothing in return.

    helping the homeless?

  2. 752
  3. 753
  4. 754
    pfft says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 752 – They predicted recession and were wrong. The economy continued booming.

  5. 755
    Scotsman says:

    RE: pfft @ 753 – Of course it continued booming- look at the $trillions of added debt. Here’s a clue for you, Pfffttt- when your house appreciates from $250k to $500k but you borrow an additional $250k against it you aren’t any richer. BUT…..you do get to claim your lifestyle is BOOMING as you buy a new car and take fancy vacations on the old LOC. Hell, your house has doubled in value! You’re driving new cars! You’ve got a tan for the first time in a decade! But you’re still just as broke as you ever were….the truth just hasn’t come home to roost yet. That’s the whole story of the last 3 decades. In fact- you’re now more broke than ever.

    Know how to turn a $700 sofa into a $1,200 sofa? Buy it on credit and add up the payments including the opportunity cost, interest expense, and depreciation. That’s essentially all the U.S. has done over the last 30+ years. No productivity growth, no real net growth in the asset base, just balance sheet expansion. That old sofa is starting to look pretty ratty too, but it’s still not paid off. In fact, we put last months payment on that fancy new credit card we just got in the mail……..

  6. 756
    Scotsman says:

    Now here is some good news- thank you, President Trump! But even this is a fudged number as it doesn’t take into account the number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. The Labor Force Participation Rate tells a more muted story. Still- “The US labor market has rarely been stronger. Recent figures from the Labor Department show US businesses had a total of 6.550 million job openings in March versus 6.585 million people who were unemployed. That’s a gap of only 35,000 workers. By contrast, this gap never fell below 2 million in the previous economic expansion that ended in 2007, and stood at 638,000 in January 2001, at the end of the expansion that started in mid-1991 and ran through early 2001.”

  7. 757
    pfft says:

    By Scotsman @ 755:

    Now here is some good news- thank you, President Trump! But even this is a fudged number as it doesn’t take into account the number of people who have dropped out of the labor force.

    Spare us. You never would have praised Obama for this. I remember you doing the opposite! Also last month there were 161,000 jobs created. You wouldn’t have praised Obama for that. The Trump economy is doing ok but it will has all the faults that the Obama economy had. Trump certainly isn’t adding any value so to speak by talking about tariffs and stifling the tourism industry.

  8. 758
    Scotsman says:

    RE: pfft @ 756 – I wouldn’t have praised Obama for 161,000 jobs created because that number is less than what’s required to keep up with population growth. 161K is actually a minus in the employment stats world. Fortunately Trump has had several months well above the roughly 200K required to maintain an even- all else being equal. Hey- count your blessings- the $15 minimum wage will finally lift you out of poverty- right?! Unless the new head tax is the final straw that forces your company to leave……

  9. 759
    uwp says:

    RE: Erik @ 748
    WA gave the largest state-tax subsidy granted to a private company in American history in 2013.

    8.7 Billion dollars.

    Here is Boeing’s WA employment since:
    (all as of Jan of the listed year)

    2013: 86,397
    2014: 81,452
    2015: 80,199
    2016: 78,225
    2017: 71,323
    2018: 65,829

  10. 760
    pfft says:

    By Scotsman @ 757:

    RE: pfft @ 756 – I wouldn’t have praised Obama for 161,000 jobs created because that number is less than what’s required to keep up with population growth. 161K is actually a minus in the employment stats world. Fortunately Trump has had several months well above the roughly 200K required to maintain an even- all else being equal. Hey- count your blessings- the $15 minimum wage will finally lift you out of poverty- right?! Unless the new head tax is the final straw that forces your company to leave……

    Standard republican scare tactics that never work. you guys are like a broken record. EVERYTHING the democrats do you guys say will costs jobs. the opposite is almost always true. You guys have cried wolf one too many times.

    The new republican tax bill is so bad they can’t even sell it to the American people.

    “Unless the new head tax is the final straw that forces your company to leave……”

    Seattle is the news Detroit! Detroit’s problem is they need so many less workers to make cars than they used to. And of course it’s cold.

  11. 761
    pfft says:

    By uwp @ 758:

    RE: Erik @ 748
    WA gave the largest state-tax subsidy granted to a private company in American history in 2013.

    8.7 Billion dollars.

    Here is Boeing’s WA employment since:
    (all as of Jan of the listed year)

    2013: 86,397
    2014: 81,452
    2015: 80,199
    2016: 78,225
    2017: 71,323
    2018: 65,829

    Obviously the subsidy wasn’t high enough! If they didn’t get that $8 billion Seattle would be detroit.

  12. 762
    Bubble Trouble says:

    I am laughing my arse off at Starbucks and Amazon’s reaction to the new employee tax. All day every day Bezos owned WaPo says taxes need to increase. And SBUX CEO Schultz is in the running for 2020 on a tax the rich platform.

    And now they got their wish and Seattle will do exactly what they are asking for……and they’re complaining. You can’t make this stuff up.

  13. 763
    Bubble Trouble says:

    RE: pfft @ 759

    You need to read sources other than WaPo and NYT amigo. April was the largest tax collection month ever. And not just a little increase from last year, 13% increase. Unemployment benefit claims are at 50 year lows. In other words the tax cuts are doing exactly what they were intended to do; creating jobs and paying for themselves.

    https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/trump-tax-cuts-revenues-record-high-april-paying-for-themselves/

  14. 764
    uwp says:

    By Scotsman @ 757:

    RE: – I wouldn’t have praised Obama for 161,000 jobs created because that number is less than what’s required to keep up with population growth. 161K is actually a minus in the employment stats world. Fortunately Trump has had several months well above the roughly 200K required to maintain an even- all else being equal.

    Trump promised 25 million new jobs, which would average about 260k per month. He has met or exceeded that number twice, and been under 200k nine times.

    I don’t expect job creation to be incredible this late in the cycle, but I’m not the one who promised to be the “Greatest Jobs President God Ever Created.”*

    *Actual Quote

  15. 765

    By Scotsman @ 747:

    Amazon should move to Bellevue or Issaquah just to piss Seattle off. It will only get worse. Low margin employers like Safeway, etc. will be the first to go followed by general enterprises that are easily moved and not location dependent. Some are already calling Seattle the future Detroit of the west. Even Chicago was smart enough to dump the idea of a head/employment tax. Not to mention there is no specific plan tied to the new revenue stream…..which will undoubtedly prove insufficient.

    Good call. Here are two Albertson’s stores in North Seattle that are closing.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/retail/albertsons-closing-two-seattle-stores/

    They were facing the head tax, the minimum wage law and the sugar tax, the first two of which increased their costs and the third of which meant many shoppers would go a few blocks north to get outside of Seattle to buy their sugary drinks. All contributed to making the stores less profitable.

    Grocery may be particularly problematic due to their reported low margins and regional advertising. Groceries stores used to price differently in different areas, but I don’t know that they can do that now.

    This won’t likely be a net loss of jobs for the region, because people will just go to other stores, but it will be a net loss of tax revenue for Seattle as more people go to stores outside the city.

  16. 766

    By Scotsman @ 754:

    RE: pfft @ 753 – Of course it continued booming- look at the $trillions of added debt. Here’s a clue for you, Pfffttt- when your house appreciates from $250k to $500k but you borrow an additional $250k against it you aren’t any richer. BUT…..you do get to claim your lifestyle is BOOMING as you buy a new car and take fancy vacations on the old LOC.

    You’re wasting your time with pfft. He doesn’t understand that there are many factors that affect the economy, and that you can’t just look at a change in one factor and then look to see what the economy did after that. You could do the exact same thing at five random times and get three different results (increased economic activity, decreased activity and no change).

    The other factor though during the Clinton years is that technology was really starting to kick into effect, with efficiencies increasing due to that. PCs were becoming cheap and becoming widely implemented in businesses.

  17. 767
    Eastsider says:

    US 10yr yeild hit 3.06% this morning, the highest since 2011. 2yr yield also hit the highest mark since 2008. The mortgage rate is next…

  18. 768

    By uwp @ 758:

    RE: Erik @ 748
    WA gave the largest state-tax subsidy granted to a private company in American history in 2013.

    8.7 Billion dollars.

    Here is Boeing’s WA employment since:
    (all as of Jan of the listed year)

    2013: 86,397
    2014: 81,452
    2015: 80,199
    2016: 78,225
    2017: 71,323
    2018: 65,829

    But what would it have been without those subsidies?

    Boeing, being a rational business entity, does try to be as efficient as possible. As a result, they cut employment company-wide by about 27,000 during that period, so roughly half the number cut in Washington state.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/268992/change-in-employment-figures-from-boeing/

    That’s despite the fact that over a third of their employees are in Washington state.

    This is actually a good example of why you cannot look at one thing and then the result when it comes to economics. Sure the employment went down, but it sure as ___ didn’t go down because of the subsidies. So the statistics uwp posted are not evidence or “proof” of anything, but posting it is at a minimum misleading if you understand the bigger picture (or understand how businesses function).

    Finally, I would also note that you need to look at the job fields where employment was lost. At times Boeing needs more engineers than other times. I think Boeing quit posting detailed employment information, or at least I cannot find it, but I would suspect that this might be a relative low point for the need for engineers.

  19. 769

    By uwp @ 761:

    Trump promised 25 million new jobs, which would average about 260k per month. He has met or exceeded that number twice, and been under 200k nine times.

    Trump’s numbers have been not significantly better than Obama’s and neither are what anyone would describe as good (except pfft and the Press before the 2012 election).

    But I’m a bit surprised by the numbers. I would have guessed that there would be at least 250,000 jobs a month created for attorneys fighting Trump policies and crowd control for protests of Trump policies. We should be in a golden age of employment! /sarc

  20. 770
    Matt P says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 765:

    By uwp @ 758:

    RE: Erik @ 748
    WA gave the largest state-tax subsidy granted to a private company in American history in 2013.

    8.7 Billion dollars.

    Here is Boeing’s WA employment since:
    (all as of Jan of the listed year)

    2013: 86,397
    2014: 81,452
    2015: 80,199
    2016: 78,225
    2017: 71,323
    2018: 65,829

    But what would it have been without those subsidies?

    Boeing, being a rational business entity, does try to be as efficient as possible. As a result, they cut employment company-wide by about 27,000 during that period, so roughly half the number cut in Washington state.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/268992/change-in-employment-figures-from-boeing/

    That’s despite the fact that over a third of their employees are in Washington state.

    This is actually a good example of why you cannot look at one thing and then the result when it comes to economics. Sure the employment went down, but it sure as ___ didn’t go down because of the subsidies. So the statistics uwp posted are not evidence or “proof” of anything, but posting it is at a minimum misleading if you understand the bigger picture (or understand how businesses function).

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 765 – You missed his point. He’s saying that even with ridiculous subsidies, they still cut jobs, so cities shouldn’t count on subsidies actually keep businesses around.

  21. 771

    LOL. Seattle wants to break away from Wells Fargo. They say: Please! But wait! Despite their millions of dollars in accounts, no one wants to do business with Seattle! They are that bad!

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattle-returns-to-wells-fargo-no-other-bank-wants-citys-business/

    Glen Simecek, president and CEO of the Washington Bankers Association, a trade association of banks across Washington, said he wasn’t surprised the city had a tough time attracting a new partner.
    . . .

    “It is a challenge, I don’t envy bankers trying to walk that line. They want to serve the city, but the challenge of an activist city council makes that harder to do.”

  22. 772

    I’d like to be the listing agent for the old Weyerhauser headquarters right now. There may be a few issues with that site, but the main one is that it’s not big enough. Starbucks could probably only move less than half its HQ staff there, for example.

  23. 773

    Seattle Can Kiss Amazon’s 50,000 Seattle Jobs Good-bye?

    They passed the Seattle head tax on Amazon.

  24. 774
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 766:

    By uwp @ 761:

    Trump promised 25 million new jobs, which would average about 260k per month. He has met or exceeded that number twice, and been under 200k nine times.

    Trump’s numbers have been not significantly better than Obama’s and neither are what anyone would describe as good (except pfft and the Press before the 2012 election).

    “With those numbers in hand, we can now compare Trump’s first year in office to his predecessors’. And in that comparison, Trump comes out looking pretty good. Relative to the figure from January in each president’s first year in office (excluding those presidents who took office after a death or resignation), Trump saw one of the biggest percentage-point drops in the unemployment rate. Relative to Obama’s first year in office, Trump’s was consistently very good.

    For example, in the number of jobs created or lost over the year: Under Trump, there were 1.8 million more people working in December than in January. Under Obama, 4.3 million fewer.”

    But this has to be from some right wing website like Fox News or Alex Jones right? Nope. It’s from the Bezos owned Washington Post.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/01/05/trumps-first-year-jobs-numbers-were-very-very-good/?utm_term=.1837a8b600c8

  25. 775
    greg says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 734:

    RE: greg @ 731 – I do happen to understand basic economics and understand that no employer thinks that higher costs are a good thing, that over the long run most will take action to avoid such higher costs if they are significant (e.g a 30+% increase in minimum wage) or uncertain (e.g. Obamacare in the early days), and that no employer actually reacts to higher costs in a positive manner by hiring more people because the cost of employment went up.

    Oh, and I also understand that you can find a study on the Internet on almost anything that says almost anything. Finding such a study doesn’t mean squat. It’s that analysis of the study that is important.

    balls Kary, you have not refuted a single thing and instead you are throwing more strawman arguments.
    Min wages work, it is proven and is no longer debated, you are just 30 years behind the curve. it is use it or lose it, and you have lost it Kary.

  26. 776
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 765:

    This is actually a good example of why you cannot look at one thing and then the result when it comes to economics. Sure the employment went down, but it sure as ___ didn’t go down because of the subsidies. So the statistics uwp posted are not evidence or “proof” of anything, but posting it is at a minimum misleading if you understand the bigger picture (or understand how businesses function).

    Why are you so sure of this? Boeing held out jobs as the carrot for subsidies. Did they deliver? Once they got what they wanted, they felt free to do as they planned. What is to stop Amazon from asking for the same tax-subsidies if they saw that they can bend the city/state to their whims? Should we roll-over?

    We are in a race to the bottom competing with other states to make ourselves subservient to “job-creators.” In the leaked bids for HQ2 (why are so many secret?) some cities actually proposed rebating payroll taxes back to Amazon, as in, employees would basically be paying their taxes to Amazon.

    Corporations are people, but they’re sociopaths.

  27. 777

    By greg/pfft @ 770:

    balls Kary, you have not refuted a single thing and instead you are throwing more strawman arguments.
    Min wages work, it is proven and is no longer debated, you are just 30 years behind the curve. it is use it or lose it, and you have lost it Kary.

    I was having a pfft moment. I had forgotten that you are pfft, but should have realized when you popped up after I started not reading pfft’s nonsense. Exact same arguments and exact same nonsense. Exact same non-responsiveness. But LOL on not refuting a single thing–exactly what greg/pfft does. Links something on the Internet and then calls it “proved” despite unable to understand even simple concepts like the difference between significant and marginal or short-term and long-term.

    But hey, let’s ignore the fact that you failed to respond in any way to the material of mine you quoted. But don’t bother now, because now I’m treating you as the pfft that you are, I won’t respond to that either!

  28. 778

    By uwp @ 771:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 765:

    This is actually a good example of why you cannot look at one thing and then the result when it comes to economics. Sure the employment went down, but it sure as ___ didn’t go down because of the subsidies. So the statistics uwp posted are not evidence or “proof” of anything, but posting it is at a minimum misleading if you understand the bigger picture (or understand how businesses function).

    Why are you so sure of this? Boeing held out jobs as the carrot for subsidies. Did they deliver?

    What makes you think they didn’t deliver? Weren’t the tax breaks to avoid another 787 type situation where they moved some production out of state? And didn’t the breaks pertain to the 777 line of planes? What can you point to that they didn’t keep that promise?

    Again, what do you think the jobs would be at but for the deal–if production of another line had moved?

  29. 779
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By uwp @ 776:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 765:

    This is actually a good example of why you cannot look at one thing and then the result when it comes to economics. Sure the employment went down, but it sure as ___ didn’t go down because of the subsidies. So the statistics uwp posted are not evidence or “proof” of anything, but posting it is at a minimum misleading if you understand the bigger picture (or understand how businesses function).

    Why are you so sure of this? Boeing held out jobs as the carrot for subsidies. Did they deliver? Once they got what they wanted, they felt free to do as they planned. What is to stop Amazon from asking for the same tax-subsidies if they saw that they can bend the city/state to their whims? Should we roll-over?

    We are in a race to the bottom competing with other states to make ourselves subservient to “job-creators.” In the leaked bids for HQ2 (why are so many secret?) some cities actually proposed rebating payroll taxes back to Amazon, as in, employees would basically be paying their taxes to Amazon.

    Corporations are people, but they’re sociopaths.

    No. Corporations are people who want to maximize profits for their shareholders. You know, the people who risked their money to invest in the company in the first place. I know for leftists profit is a 4 letter word. But would Seattle be better off if Boeing exists and is profitable or if Boeing – and its eeeeeeevil executives and even more eeeeviler shareholders – goes bankrupt.

    Hmmmm……

    Socialism has never worked, it will never work. It cannot work. And yet for some weird reason people keep wanting to try it over and over and over again.

  30. 780
    Bubble Trouble says:

    Can someone point me to the section of the WA constitution that says any company started or HQed in WA must employ people in the state in perpetuity? Cuz I assume this exists given some of the rhetoric here.

    Oh what’s that? No such clause exists. So you’re saying Amazon and Boeing are free to employ people anywhere they like outside WA state? And if WA/Seattle makes it unprofitable to employ people in state, they have the right to go somewhere else? Huh. That’s weird.

  31. 781
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 778:

    Again, what do you think the jobs would be at but for the deal–if production of another line had moved?

    What if Washington had offered twice as much? Or half as much? Or the first born of each Boeing engineer? Nobody knows.

    I’m sure Boeing would like you to believe that we would have lost more than 25% of their workforce in the last 5 years (while their stock price has more than tripled).

  32. 782

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 780 – I don’t know what you’re talking about! greg/pfft thinks that increased costs contribute to increased employement. Given that they’ve proven that it’s too bad the head tax was cut in half, because that will undoubtedly result in fewer employers flocking to the City of Seattle to hire people paying them even more money!

  33. 783
    kenmorem says:

    it’s pretty amusing to see so many hard-right posters here. why on earth do you live in/around king county? do you just feel bottled up all the time, and now when you’re behind a screen, you can become a mega keyboard warrior and spew off alternative facts like there’s no tomorrow?

  34. 784
    greg says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 777:

    By gregpfft @ 770:

    balls Kary, you have not refuted a single thing and instead you are throwing more strawman arguments.
    Min wages work, it is proven and is no longer debated, you are just 30 years behind the curve. it is use it or lose it, and you have lost it Kary.

    I was having a pfft moment. I had forgotten that you are pfft, but should have realized when you popped up after I started not reading pfft’s nonsense. Exact same arguments and exact same nonsense. Exact same non-responsiveness. But LOL on not refuting a single thing–exactly what greg/pfft does. Links something on the Internet and then calls it “proved” despite unable to understand even simple concepts like the difference between significant and marginal or short-term and long-term.

    But hey, let’s ignore the fact that you failed to respond in any way to the material of mine you quoted. But don’t bother now, because now I’m treating you as the pfft that you are, I won’t respond to that either!

    weak sauce Kary, you made silly claims you couldn’t support them and so instead you are doing your standard bs… ie deflect, and make up some lies and throw out some straw man arguments.

    So i will just remind you of the topic.

    Kary says min wages are bad evil things that communists love and that whole vibe.

    Most everyone else in the world including the majority of economists say min wages are a good and useful tool that demonstrably reduce poverty.

    that is the discussion , you can deflect, lie, whine and stamp your feet, but no amount of that will change the facts. You were wrong , you berated a number of posters on the topic you got schooled repeatedly but pretended otherwise and instead went the route of ad hominem .

    Kary i strongly suggest you just google min wages and try to avoid falling into confirmation bias. You might find that econ has moved on over the last 50 years…

  35. 785

    By kenmorem @ 783:

    it’s pretty amusing to see so many hard-right posters here. why on earth do you live in/around king county? do you just feel bottled up all the time, and now when you’re behind a screen, you can become a mega keyboard warrior and spew off alternative facts like there’s no tomorrow?

    Wanting more jobs to help with the unemployment/homeless crisis is not being hard right, but I guess when you compare it to Seattle’s government it might appear that way.

    Wanting money on homeless people to be spent on effective programs, or at least wanting some effort to be made to determine if the money is being spent effectively is not hard right, but I guess when you compare it to the complete and total incompetence of Seattle, oh wait, it looks good then no matter what you compare it to.

  36. 786
    N says:

    Min Wage discussion, much like politics, generally means no one will listen or be open minded. Just dig in based on your current views.

    I will just say that based on my experience living in Seattle and being slightly below or at the medium wage as the min wage has ramped up, it has made it harder and harder on true medium income families as the costs of things, especially restaurants and services has skyrocketed and those families obviously don’t benefit with 25%+ wage increases like the min wage earners). And probably not surprisingly, the levels of teenage employment has dropped like a rock.

    Benefits for some, absolutely, but others are hurt and regardless of your viewpoint there will eventually be less of those entry level jobs as wages rise and businesses look to be efficient in order to be competitive. Some don’t want to hear it, but the same goes for the head tax, which a company could pay even if they make no profit. The ironic part is wages for entry level jobs have been rising for several years now, Walmart, Target, you name it, wages have been stepping up a companies try hard to keep workers. Yet I see signs at nearly every service business, hiring now. Apparently too many of these workers either have left the city or can make more doing something else, which naturally will lead to even hiring wages to attract workers and higher prices for customers or automation.

    Obviously a big loser will be the low margin restaurant and grocery stores, where consumers in Seattle have already seen large increases in prices because of higher wages. Dick’s have been pretty outspoken about how they will be impacted.

  37. 787
    S-Crow says:

    On June 7th real estate recording fees are going up to $100 for Deed of Trust’s (plus $1 for each add. page (ie, usually around 15 pages , plus PUD Riders, MERS Riders) and $99 for Warranty Deeds, plus $1 each additional page; I would really like to know what the track record is for fighting homelessness with the funds collected PRIOR TO this new recording fee initiative ready to kick off on June 7th.

    I just spoke with a homeowner yesterday who is tempted to sell because of the absurd emotionally driven buying going on and take the money and run. But she and her husband said, “where in the world would we move to locally. We couldn’t even buy in our own area again.”

    1) How many sellers find themselves in this pickle? Chime in please.
    2) What is the track record of non-profits/gov’t agencies fighting homelessness with the fees generated by recording documents prior to the new hike coming June 7th.

  38. 788
  39. 789

    The new “latest” news is the Head Tax may be revoked at the State level.

    For me, this is the local level “straw that can break the camel’s back” as to home prices in the not too distant future, that trumps all other issues. Others are more macro and will impact housing everywhere. But this issue can create more local and pocket shifts from Seattle to The Eastside and cause a small leak in the bubble that may cause a big impact in very small doses over time.

    Seems to me Companies with offices both in Seattle AND The Eastside can easily and quietly move some people across the bridge. If they already have space on The Eastside, they save money by merely shifting gears. No? Quietly and slowly under the guise of business as usual.

    http://mynorthwest.com/988438/senator-head-tax-revoked/

  40. 790
    David says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 789 – I think you are right. Amazon ceratainly seems to view it as the camel getting its nose under the tent.

    This ‘head tax’ is like blood in the water. Once they can target businesses with taxes like this then it is GUARANTEED to be raised and expanded in the future. Sharks drawn to blood in the water is what this tax represents.

    The people of this State (WA) are so stupid – especially Seattle people.

    They make marijuana legal then wonder why there are so many drug problems. Their cronies then open rehab centers. They legalize gambling and wonder why there are so many gambling addicts. Their cronies open rehab services. And the poor suffer.

    They spend huge sums making life easy on homeless people (MANY who will never choose a different lifestyle or ever work) and wonder why they are an attractive nuisance for homeless influx.

    Now they are taxing businesses and will wonder why they are losing employers and viable jobs.

    The people of this town went on strike against Boeing when 787 was in a critical stage losing $Bs and then wonder why Boeing went to Chicago and South Carolina.

    Amazon has one BIG advantage over Boeing – essentially no plant/equipment in Seattle. AMZ has computers and cubicles. Those can move totally out of town with little effort.

    Can any viable argument be made that Amaxon leaving town would not tank housing prices?

  41. 791
    N says:

    As much as Amazon may be still hiring in Seattle, if you add up all the other announced locations and job figures they are probably hiring just as much outside Seattle

    1,000 jobs announced in Vancouver.

    additional 1,200 in Boston + possible 2,000 on top of that. https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/talking-points/2018/05/15/amazon-ramps-move-into-south-boston/FysR8M7p5QkRZ8lf6KUwYM/story.html

    Atlanta – 150 jobs + HQ2 contender https://atlantaintownpaper.com/2017/09/report-amazon-opening-new-logistics-hub-atlantic-station/

    And probably many more cities…

  42. 792
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 789 – Seattle has become the socialist capitol in the country. Regardless of the outcome of legality of Seattle head tax, the business climate has been permanently poisoned. How is Uwajimaya going to survive the head tax when it makes a penny on a dollar revenue? It has become the latest collateral damage but why would the socialists care?

    Back to RE, 30yr mortgage rate hits 4.75% today, the highest since 2011. There is a good chance that home prices will drop this year if it hits 5%.

  43. 793
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 792 – Already is at 5% for current buyers.

  44. 794
    pfft says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 763:

    RE: pfft @ 759In other words the tax cuts are doing exactly what they were intended to do; creating jobs and paying for themselves.

    https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/trump-tax-cuts-revenues-record-high-april-paying-for-themselves/

    False. tax cuts don’t pay for themselves. We are borrowing records amount of money during the recovery phase.

  45. 795
    Eastsider says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 793 – The national average 30yr mortgage rate @ 4.75% is from Mortgage News Daily.

    Btw, anyone who obtained a sub-3% 5/1 ARM 5 years ago will face reset this year. The monthly mortgage payment can easily go up over 50%. I assume many will default although majority of mortgages in recent years are fixed rates.

  46. 796

    RE: Eastsider @ 792

    “Back to RE, 30yr mortgage rate hits 4.75% today, the highest since 2011. There is a good chance that home prices will drop this year if it hits 5%.”

    I call those “macro issues” that will impact the Country as to real estate prices vs things like The Head Tax, and they work in unison.

    I was already on record as bearish and expecting a price correction in real estate at any time after 2016 and likely in 2019. I count the up-cycle as having started in 2012 and expect an upswing to list 5-8 years with the highest expectation after 7 years. So 50/50 chance in 2017. 65/35 chance in 2018 and growing increasingly bearish as we move along.

    I use my own “peak and valley/trough” analysis, and did not agree with Arora’s “triple bottom” piece yesterday. But he was probably already changing his tune this morning.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bulls-break-the-downtrend-in-stocks-but-will-it-last-2018-05-11

    I doubt I will ever falter from my continued bearishness with increasing weight toward probability of a correction in the real estate market…until it comes to pass. Possible something could change my mind about that. But I’m a bit too old school to be bullish this far into an upswing, regardless.

    Local factors can cause a “double down” and obfuscate the cause, if they impact in unison.

  47. 797
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 796 – I have said many times that homeowners (but not investors) should ignore prices because it will not matter in the long run. But now I would advise against buying homes in this overheated market. If we hit a recession, which will happen eventually, you may not be able to afford the mortgage payments especially if high-paying jobs are no longer here… If you bought your home in the last 3-8 years, good for you!

  48. 798
    uwp says:

    I love the thought that a $275/per person tax will scare Amazon away.
    Amazon’s 45,000+ Seattle employees are paid an average of more than $110,000.

    This is the equivalent of a 0.0025% tax.

    Noted jobs wasteland Silicon Valley is in a state that would charge that same worker over $7,000 in state income taxes.

  49. 799
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 798 – Sure HQ2 is fake news too. /S

  50. 800
    pfft says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 774:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 766:

    By uwp @ 761:

    Trump promised 25 million new jobs, which would average about 260k per month. He has met or exceeded that number twice, and been under 200k nine times.

    Trump’s numbers have been not significantly better than Obama’s and neither are what anyone would describe as good (except pfft and the Press before the 2012 election).

    “With those numbers in hand, we can now compare Trump’s first year in office to his predecessors’. And in that comparison, Trump comes out looking pretty good. Relative to the figure from January in each president’s first year in office (excluding those presidents who took office after a death or resignation), Trump saw one of the biggest percentage-point drops in the unemployment rate. Relative to Obama’s first year in office, Trump’s was consistently very good.

    For example, in the number of jobs created or lost over the year: Under Trump, there were 1.8 million more people working in December than in January. Under Obama, 4.3 million fewer.”

    But this has to be from some right wing website like Fox News or Alex Jones right? Nope. It’s from the Bezos owned Washington Post.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/01/05/trumps-first-year-jobs-numbers-were-very-very-good/?utm_term=.1837a8b600c8

    Did you think we forgot Obama got handed a huge recession? Watch out, someone is going to lecture you over your bad memory.

  51. 801
    pfft says:

    By Eastsider @ 792:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 789 – Seattle has become the socialist capitol in the country. Regardless of the outcome of legality of Seattle head tax, the business climate has been permanently poisoned.

    Oh my good. They are paying a little extra so that we can help the homeless. The tragedy!

    Seattle has a huge housing problem. It’s the downside of the Amazon/tech boom.

    Today many businesses just don’t want to contribute and I just don’t understand it.

    Take what you can.

    Give nothing back.

    -Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

    Heck, our President had his charity shut down.

  52. 802
    David says:

    RE: uwp @ 798 – Seattle repealed a $25 head tax about 9 years ago because it was causing problems.

  53. 803
    Ross says:

    By uwp @ 798:

    I love the thought that a $275/per person tax will scare Amazon away.
    Amazon’s 45,000+ Seattle employees are paid an average of more than $110,000.

    This is the equivalent of a 0.0025% tax.

    Noted jobs wasteland Silicon Valley is in a state that would charge that same worker over $7,000 in state income taxes.

    It’s not the amount that’s scary. It’s the attitude of this city council.

  54. 804

    RE: pfft @ 800

    Just a correction/clarification.

    I did not say what comes after my name in pfft’s comment “RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 789 – Seattle has become the socialist capitol in the country. Regardless of the outcome of legality of Seattle head tax, the business climate has been permanently poisoned.”

    Those are not my words nor would I have said them. My only interest in the Head Tax issue is as it may or may not impact the real estate market in the area.

  55. 805
    Suburban Mom says:

    Expedia must be so pissed off right now. They are heading over to the old Amgen campus in Seattle from Bellevue. Not only do they get to contend with the whole horrible Seattle traffic and “Mercer Mess” which has yet to be fixed. Now they will get to be taxed when they bring over all those employees over in 2019. How wonderful for them…

  56. 806
    pfft says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 802:

    RE: pfft @ 800

    Just a correction/clarification.

    I did not say what comes after my name in pfft’s comment “RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 789 – Seattle has become the socialist capitol in the country. Regardless of the outcome of legality of Seattle head tax, the business climate has been permanently poisoned.”

    Those are not my words nor would I have said them. My only interest in the Head Tax issue is as it may or may not impact the real estate market in the area.

    odd. I noticed the other day that comments were getting messed up too.

  57. 807
    Goliath to your David sling away says:

    RE: David @ 790 – anyone even slightly triggered by your rambles anymore? I love reading your fan fiction. … Go on :)

  58. 808
    Eastsider says:

    By pfft @ 800:

    Oh my good. They are paying a little extra so that we can help the homeless. The tragedy!

    You know very well it is not about “a little extra.” It is about (endless) money grab. Compare the city tax revenue today vs 5 years ago. The tax revenue has grown much faster than wages and population.

    Seattle has a huge housing problem. It’s the downside of the Amazon/tech boom.

    If you are claiming that Seattle’s homeless problem is a result of Amazon/tech boom, show us your links!

    Today many businesses just don’t want to contribute and I just don’t understand it.

    You have no clue. Admit it!

    Btw, if you don’t believe Amazon will move, you are deluded. Here is a news article from USA Today from two years ago. Maybe in 2 years time you will read the same article about Amazon and Seattle.

    XXX relocating headquarters to ___
    Facing the potential for higher taxes at home and lured by universities and a high-tech future, iconic XXX is moving its headquarters…

    XXX said the company tapped ___ as the winner from among 40 potential sites reviewed in a formal process that began in June, the culmination of more than three-year consideration of the composition and location of its headquarters.

    XXX has been well known to generations of Americans…

    ___ won the relocation nod based on an evaluation of its business ecosystem, talent, long-term costs, quality of life for employees, wealth of higher education centers and other factors, XXX said.

    XXX said the move would have “no material financial impact” on the company. ___ officials structured a package of incentives that provide benefits to the state and city, while also “helping offset” XXX’s relocation costs, the company said.

    Additionally, XXX plans to sell its offices at its longtime headquarters to further offset the relocation cost.

    “XXX aspires to be the most competitive company in the world,” XXX Chairman and CEO said in a statement announcing the relocation. “Today XXX is a $130 billion high-tech global company, one that is leading the digital transformation of industry. We want to be at the enter of an ecosystem that shares our aspirations.”

    ___ Gov. and Mayor celebrated the company’s decision, which they said would bring high-paying jobs to ___ and help the city achieve further economic growth.

    ___ offered XXX up to $120 million in incentives through grants and other programs, and ___ offered up to $25 million in property tax relief, the officials said. Additional incentives include $1 million in grants for workforce training, and up to $5 million for an innovation center to establish connections between XXX, the higher education community and innovators from ___ research centers.

    The Fortune 500 company has long been based in … However, XXX tentatively scouted new headquarters sites amid the possibility of higher state and local taxes on businesses and high-income earners.

    XXX signaled plans to find a new headquarters in June, when he told employees in an email that the company was considering relocating to a state with “a more pro-business environment,” according to media reports at the time. The email followed legislature approval of a budget that drew objections from XXX.

  59. 809
    uwp says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 799

    “In the 2 weeks since Amazon publicly said it was halting its growth in Seattle over the city’s business tax, it’s posted new ads for 547 jobs based in Seattle.

    Amazon has 5,700 job openings in Seattle right now, up from 4,000 a few months ago.”

    https://twitter.com/byrosenberg/status/996490596066803712?s=21

  60. 810
    Suburban Mom says:

    This is a fascinating little bit of a news I had missed out on.

    Nationstar acquired by WaMu.

    https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2018/02/15/nationstar-acquired-by-former-parent-of-washington.html

  61. 811
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 797
    Thanks for the warning, but I’m gonna buy another one anyway. Everytime I purchased Seattle real estate, someone on this site has had a compelling reason that the housing market is about to tank.

    The thing that makes real estate in Seattle a great investment is that we can privatize our profits and socialize our losses. If the investment goes bad, we can foreclose and walk away without recourse as we are a non-judicial foreclosure state. Party like a rockstar!

  62. 812
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 807:

    The thing that makes real estate in Seattle a great investment is that we can privatize our profits and socialize our losses. If the investment goes bad, we can foreclose and walk away without recourse as we are a non-judicial foreclosure state. Party like a rockstar!

    Yes, your mortgages are subsidized by taxpayers. (In the first five months of 2017, 97.3% of MBS are backed by the federal government.) Even so, this is a really bad time to get in the game. And I certainly do not condone such strategy based on principles.

  63. 813
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 808
    We’ll, my strategy certainly isn’t to have to foreclose. I’m just saying if it comes to that, the state won’t come after my other assets.

  64. 814

    Maybe there’s a bright side to the head tax. If more employers expand outside Seattle proper, but still in King County, those other cities can benefit financially and perhaps become more vibrant as good places to live and work. Also, traffic issues might become less severe assuming not too many employees will have to commute through Seattle, although the rail/light rail projects will be less useful.

    I know if I were the owner of a large office building I’d be much happier right now if that building were in Bellevue rather than Seattle.

  65. 815

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 789:

    The new “latest” news is the Head Tax may be revoked at the State level.

    Even before the head tax I was saying the state needs to step in and restrict the types of taxes that local jurisdictions can impose. Seattle has been using taxes not to raise necessary revenues, but instead as a weapon to promote social policies (gun/ammunition, sugar, income), and that is not good at the local level.

    What’s crazy is that they have this history of using taxes as a weapon, but can’t see that a tax on jobs will reduce the number of jobs. They also won’t even listen to other liberal politicians on the topic. True stupidity and arrogance.

  66. 816

    By Eastsider @ 808:

    By Erik @ 807:

    The thing that makes real estate in Seattle a great investment is that we can privatize our profits and socialize our losses. If the investment goes bad, we can foreclose and walk away without recourse as we are a non-judicial foreclosure state. Party like a rockstar!

    Yes, your mortgages are subsidized by taxpayers. (In the first five months of 2017, 97.3% of MBS are backed by the federal government.) Even so, this is a really bad time to get in the game. And I certainly do not condone such strategy based on principles.

    Washington law is not quite as bulletproof as Erik suggests. Back during the downturn the banks were doing a number of judicial foreclosures seeking deficiencies. California has a much more complicated system, and in many cases their residential housing debt is truly non-recourse.

    I do know one person who decades ago bought a then seemingly expensive house in CA who was expressly not concerned about the amount they were paying because it was non-recourse. So to some extent the non-recourse policy does contribute to higher prices. I don’t think I would change our system though–I think it strikes a nice balance, even if it is a bit random and imperfect.

  67. 817
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 811
    I think the state can still veto the Seattle head tax, right Kary?

  68. 818

    By Erik @ 813:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 811
    I think the state can still veto the Seattle head tax, right Kary?

    Veto is the wrong term, but I don’t think there are any constitutional provisions that provide for certain local taxes as being necessary, but I haven’t really looked for such a thing. But unless there are such provisions (doubtful) then yes, the state can make virtually any local tax illegal or limit them . I believe there are already limits on the amount of sales tax and REET that can be imposed by local jurisdictions.

  69. 819
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 812
    Recourse if you are gaming the system and are solvent. If there was another big crash, I’d be insolvent anyway and give my property quickly and respectfully back to the bank like I did last time.

    If I buy rentals near the job center and can Keep them rented and stay in a fixed loan, it’s unlikely I’ll have to give the property back unless nobody wants to rent in Seattle anymore.

  70. 820

    This will be a two part post–to avoid moderation from multiple links.

    Here’s the first link: Seattle City Council wants business to come talk to them! I’d ask why would a business want to talk to a bunch of crazies, but that’s another topic.

    http://komonews.com/news/local/come-talk-to-us-seattle-council-president-fires-back-at-amazon-starbucks

  71. 821

    Part two–Redfin, trying to avoid some political issues still doesn’t like the tax, but instead favors zoning changes (which itself is controversial). But here’s the kicker related to the first:

    “We’ve tried contacting our city council members, now and over the past year, to ask what we could do to support an equitable Seattle,” he said. “No one has returned our calls or emails.”

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/redfin-ceo-breaks-ranks-tech-community-maverick-response-unreasonable-seattle-tax/

    Oh, and in case I’m not being clear, I would tend to believe Redfin over the City Council. The City Council doesn’t want to hear from anyone.

  72. 822
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 816
    They say come down to City Council meetings where they will give them 1 minute to give their opinion. By the way if you read the city documents, if they were required to gather public comment before passing this tax , that would be a negative.

    I published a couple of earlier links on stories where they had a meeting with the business community and the council was very hostile towards them. There is no effort to find solutions together like a public-private partnership or building actual housing or providing property or in-kind services. They just want a revenue stream whether that’s an head tax on the “richest” companies or an income tax on the “richest” people in the city. They just want $$$, not solutions.

  73. 823

    RE: kenmorem @ 783
    Perhaps I’m Not Clarifying Issues Over Decades Rather than a Decade

    But the Democrat Party used to be the hard righters before it got open border brainwashed in 1999 [Clinton joined the NWO]…..that’s when I stopped voting Democrat.

    That’s why I don’t use conservative/liberal name tags anymore….they’re meaningless now. You’re either Open Border or Closed Border now. Its that simple. The heydays are over. Welcome to the 3rd world poor world if you’re open border….embrace it.

  74. 824

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 818
    I’ve Noticed a COMPLETE Lack of Communication Leadership Skills Too

    Perhaps we should hire more qualified skilled people instead of laying those folks off because they’re not “politically open border correct”?

    Join a Toastmaster club, anything….but learn to think out of the box…..be innovative for once.

  75. 825
    Rupert D says:

    By complaining about the new head tax, left leaning Amazon and Starbucks are being hypocrites but they do make good points in their responses below:

    Drew Herdener, an Amazon vice president, released this statement:

    “We are disappointed by today’s City Council decision to introduce a tax on jobs. While we have resumed construction planning for Block 18, we remain very apprehensive about the future created by the council’s hostile approach and rhetoric toward larger businesses, which forces us to question our growth here. City of Seattle revenues have grown dramatically from $2.8 billion in 2010 to $4.2 billion in 2017, and they will be even higher in 2018. This revenue increase far outpaces the Seattle population increase over the same time period. The city does not have a revenue problem – it has a spending efficiency problem. We are highly uncertain whether the city council’s anti-business positions or its spending inefficiency will change for the better.”

    Starbucks also slammed the new tax and questioned the city’s accountability.

    “This City continues to spend without reforming and fail without accountability, while ignoring the plight of hundreds of children sleeping outside. If they cannot provide a warm meal and safe bed to a five year-old child, no one believes they will be able to make housing affordable or address opiate addiction. This City pays more attention to the desires of the owners of illegally parked RVs than families seeking emergency shelter,” John Kelley, Senior vice president for Starbucks Global Public Affairs and Social Impact said in a statement to KOMO News on Monday evening.

  76. 826

    RE: Rupert D @ 821 – I’m not sure how Starbucks and Amazon are being hypocrytical–they are just saying being anti-business isn’t the solution to homelessness. Given the fact that jobs are the best solution, that’s rather logical.

    But on the topic of inefficiency and lack of accountability, there’s this article on how Seattle can’t even manage to oversee what they were taking on before this proposal passed.

    https://crosscut.com/2018/04/homelessness-budgets-increase-oversight-stretched-thin

    Seattle isn’t good at what they do now, but rather than fix those problems they want to do even more!

  77. 827
  78. 828
    Rupert D says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 823
    Good article….I wonder why the Seattle city council didn’t mention Amazons good works to the sign carrying protestors at the council meeting (i.e., den of thieves)?

  79. 829

    Okay, now that they’ve decided raise funds, now they are going to look at how to spend the money. Talk about cart before the horse!

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/homeless/seattles-head-tax-fight-goes-to-the-next-round-how-best-to-solve-homelessness/

    Just proof that Seattle likes taxes. Fighting homelessness is merely an excuse to raise taxes.

  80. 830
    N says:

    @ Kary – Interesting to note there is not one mention of helping the homeless with mental or drug issues in either of the proposals.

  81. 831
    David says:

    As long as Amazon relocates regionally, I hope Seattle keeps screwing itself over and over. Nail the citizens up there in Seattle.

    But if Amazon essentially quits Seattle – for HQ2 – that is bad.

    Sawant proposed nationalizing Boeing. The City Council is full of people you wouldn’t want managing your local McDonalds let alone a city. These are losers whose only talent is running for office. You certainly wouldn’t outsource them managing your personal finances.

    I think Bezos is crazy to stay in Seattle with threats of felony prosecuting him/AMZ for opposing this tax. Specifically targeting his business with the slow-cooker tax head/occupation tax.

    Get out while you can Jeff – it won’t be getting any less crazy. HQ2 has taken on a ‘life-lesson’ status for the ‘citizens’ of Seattle. Nail’em.

  82. 832

    By N @ 830:

    @ Kary – Interesting to note there is not one mention of helping the homeless with mental or drug issues in either of the proposals.

    And the prior article about the money needed (I think done by King County) said 85% would be spent on permanent housing. That doesn’t leave a lot for transitional housing, drug/mental treatment, job placement/training, etc.

  83. 833

    By David @ 831:

    Sawant proposed nationalizing Boeing.

    She probably wants to design a plane that only has two left wings.

    Seriously, terrible idea. The result would probably be making flying as safe as it was in the 1940s, with planes that are twice as expensive.

  84. 834

    By David @ 831:

    Specifically targeting his business with the slow-cooker tax head/occupation tax.

    It doesn’t specifically target Amazon. That, or that it targets billionaires, is just propaganda of the people who wanted to pass it. I think I read over 500 employers would be hit, but I can’t find the link.

    Also, for employees making more than minimum wage, over the long run the tax burden will fall on them to some extent, although obviously at the individual level this is a minor amount of money. This will impact raises and other compensation.

  85. 835
    Brian says:

    Every time I see an interesting place pop up in Redfin within my search price range, I use their calculator to estimate the payment. I’m finding it’s much harder, with 5% mortgage rates, to find something within my search price range that still fits within my desired payment range. When you put in 5% and then put in 3.5% you can really see the difference in payment over the last year and a half.

    So I guess that means I have to lower my search price range. But unfortunately there’s nothing interesting below that. I guess maybe I will just have to forget buying a place for now and continue to rent.

    I wonder if most other buyers are paying attention to the payment increases or if there’s a lot of people that just look at the sticker price.

  86. 836
    greg says:

    By Suburban Mom @ 805:

    Expedia must be so pissed off right now. They are heading over to the old Amgen campus in Seattle from Bellevue. Not only do they get to contend with the whole horrible Seattle traffic and “Mercer Mess” which has yet to be fixed. Now they will get to be taxed when they bring over all those employees over in 2019. How wonderful for them…

    Dude Expedia hopes to have UP TO 3500 employees in seattle…. thus the entire tax is about 900k PA. That is not a big deal in terms of employee costs. You need to keep in mind Expedia has revs of about 10 Billion a year. Of course they would rather not pay it, but MSFT did not shift expansion out of Redmone when Redmond put a head tax on them ….

  87. 837
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 834
    It’s always better to go straight to the source, rather than various news outlets that might be confused on their facts:
    “Selected highlights of the amended ordinance include:
    Exempt Seattle’s small and medium-sized businesses, only applying to those with at least $20 million or more annually in taxable gross receipts as measured under the City’s existing Business & Occupation tax;
    Apply only to the City’s approximately 585 largest businesses, or approximately 3% of all Seattle businesses;
    Require large businesses to pay $275 per full-time equivalent employee working 1,920 hours per year (or about $0.14 per hour);
    Include an evaluation of the economic impacts, and an independent oversight committee; and,
    Exempt healthcare providers that provide at least 25% of their services to patients covered by Medicare and Medicaid as well as all hospitals.”
    http://council.seattle.gov/2018/05/14/seattle-council-passes-tax-on-business-to-help-address-homelessness/

    http://coscouncilconn.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/CB-119250-Business-Tax-COUNCIL-AMD-24-EHT-only-at-275-and-5yr-Sunset.pdf

  88. 838
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 834 – I disagree – they are intending this tax to focus on Amazon – the cities biggest employer.

  89. 839

    By Brian @ 835:

    I wonder if most other buyers are paying attention to the payment increases or if there’s a lot of people that just look at the sticker price.

    Most are likely working with a lender who helps them with that sort of thing.

  90. 840

    By Suburban Mom @ 837:

    Apply only to the City’s approximately 585 largest businesses, or approximately 3% of all Seattle businesses;

    That’s probably the number I read, but think about that. 585 businesses. That’s a lot of businesses. Just the thought that Dicks is covered is somewhat amazing, since I think they have only 4-5 Seattle locations. I suspect there are a lot of the 585 most people have never even heard of.

  91. 841
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Brian @ 835 – People pay no mind to those calculations when they are paying with cash and still lots of people pay for homes with $$$$. I still can’t figure out where all this money is coming from…

  92. 842
    pfft says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 808 – By Eastsider @ 808:

    By pfft @ 800:

    Oh my good. They are paying a little extra so that we can help the homeless. The tragedy!

    You know very well it is not about “a little extra.” It is about (endless) money grab. Compare the city tax revenue today vs 5 years ago. The tax revenue has grown much faster than wages and population.

    Seattle has a huge housing problem. It’s the downside of the Amazon/tech boom.

    If you are claiming that Seattle’s homeless problem is a result of Amazon/tech boom, show us your links!

    Today many businesses just don’t want to contribute and I just don’t understand it.

    You have no clue. Admit it!

    Since you obviously have a clue. How fast should government spending be growing. And don’t come at with I think the government should grow X amount. Give me a bunch of peer-reviewed studies that say how fast government should grow, if at all. Seattle has one of the fastest growing populations recently. Housing costs have also been going up. Government spending when population is going up could be lumpy, A school district could go from a few years of adding students to classrooms to needing new schools. That’s expensive. We could also be playing catch up from the Bush Great Recession.

    Typical Republicans. All you guys do is complain about high housing prices, traffic and homelessness. Yet when taxes and solutions come along you guys want none of it. Some of you might have valid criticisms about plans but some I suspect are just hiding the fact they don’t want anything done.

  93. 843
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 815:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 789:

    The new “latest” news is the Head Tax may be revoked at the State level.

    Even before the head tax I was saying the state needs to step in and restrict the types of taxes that local jurisdictions can impose. Seattle has been using taxes not to raise necessary revenues, but instead as a weapon to promote social policies (gun/ammunition, sugar, income), and that is not good at the local level.

    What’s crazy is that they have this history of using taxes as a weapon, but can’t see that a tax on jobs will reduce the number of jobs. They also won’t even listen to other liberal politicians on the topic. True stupidity and arrogance.

    local control huh kary?

  94. 844
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 840

    Here’s the list by type of industry according to the 2016 data which got them the 585 businesses impacted. It doesn’t give the business names but at least gives you the type of businesses that will be impacted.

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4463001-Business-Type-With-Revenue-Greater-Than-20-Million.html

  95. 845
    pfft says:

    If Starbucks and Amazon have ways to solve homelessness I am sure the city would be happy to hear about it.
    Starbucks I guess calls the cops on it’s own customers and it seems like the homeless often have better bathroom facilities than Amazon workers do…

  96. 846
    Rupert D says:

    News Flash – European Firms Start Pulling Back From Iran

    In other news, Amazon surprised everyone by choosing Tehran for its new headquarters, stating it was more business friendly than Seattle.

  97. 847
    David says:

    “Day One” is Amazon’s moto. Operate like you are a lean start-up. That is NOT a head tax accepting moto.

    Good luck Seattle.

  98. 848
    uwp says:

    RE: David @ 847
    Amazon had 178 billion in revenue, and they will surely blow though 200 billion in revenue this year.

    To cover this tax they could raise prices by about 0.005%. It’s a rounding error.

  99. 849

    By Suburban Mom @ 844:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 840

    Here’s the list by type of industry according to the 2016 data which got them the 585 businesses impacted. It doesn’t give the business names but at least gives you the type of businesses that will be impacted.

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4463001-Business-Type-With-Revenue-Greater-Than-20-Million.html

    It’s hard to carry the lines over to the number, but building construction is interesting. I would assume the subs would not count as employees, but I haven’t read the ordinance.

  100. 850

    By Rupert D @ 846:

    In other news, Amazon surprised everyone by choosing Tehran for its new headquarters, stating it was more business friendly than Seattle.

    And has a less radical government.

  101. 851
    pfft says:

    By David @ 847:

    “Day One” is Amazon’s moto. Operate like you are a lean start-up. That is NOT a head tax accepting moto.

    Good luck Seattle.

    Amazon workers tell us their warehouse horror stories
    http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-warehouse-workers-share-their-horror-stories-2018-4

    A large number of Amazon workers rely on food stamps for assistance
    https://thinkprogress.org/amazon-workers-rely-on-food-stamps-24ab86dd6495/

  102. 852
    pfft says:

    By uwp @ 848:

    RE: David @ 847
    Amazon had 178 billion in revenue, and they will surely blow though 200 billion in revenue this year.

    To cover this tax they could raise prices by about 0.005%. It’s a rounding error.

    Take what you can.

    Give nothing back.

  103. 853
    Suburban Mom says:

    Another national news piece on how it’s really difficult to be a buyer in Seattle.

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/16/pf/buying-a-home-seattle/index.html

  104. 854
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 848:

    RE: David @ 847
    Amazon had 178 billion in revenue, and they will surely blow though 200 billion in revenue this year.

    To cover this tax they could raise prices by about 0.005%. It’s a rounding error.

    By your logic, you can just get Bezos or Gates to pay for all your pet projects. I would be surprised if Amazon and other businesses do not adjust their business plans going forward.

    Bernie Sanders “loved” Venezuela’s move toward socialism 3 years ago. They are now eating their family pets. — Owen Benjamin, Dec 4, 2017
    http://quillette.com/2018/03/10/sanders-venezuela-meme/

  105. 855
    pfft says:

    By Eastsider @ 854:

    By uwp @ 848:

    RE: David @ 847
    Amazon had 178 billion in revenue, and they will surely blow though 200 billion in revenue this year.

    To cover this tax they could raise prices by about 0.005%. It’s a rounding error.

    By your logic, you can just get Bezos or Gates to pay for all your pet projects. I would be surprised if Amazon and other businesses do not adjust their business plans going forward.

    Bernie Sanders “loved” Venezuela’s move toward socialism 3 years ago. They are now eating their family pets. — Owen Benjamin, Dec 4, 2017
    http://quillette.com/2018/03/10/sanders-venezuela-meme/

    I am not sure you link says what you think it says…

  106. 856
    Boater says:

    This message board system desperately needs an ignore feature.

  107. 857
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 854 – Surely Gates, Bezos, Buffet, Zuckerberg, Ellison, Bloomberg, Page, Brin, The Walton’s and all the rest of the richest Americans can collectively combine their wealth and buy a home for all those in America who need them. *Wink*

  108. 858
    David says:

    AMAZON IS A WEBSITE. Walmart’s revenue in 1 year exceeds Amazon’s combined total revenue since its founding. Is every municipality going to raise a tax on Amazon’s employees? Why is Seattle special?

    Two companies – Walmart & Amazon. GUESS which one is indispensable to life in the USA?

    The answer is Walmart. America cannot operate without Walmart because Walmart makes life affordable for the lower classes. Amazon does not – it is higher end convenience for most people.

    Do your grocery shopping at Walmart and see how much less expensive it is than Whole Foods, PCC, or any other scam foods store in Seattle. Shockingly different in prices.

    You can buy almost any high-end product at Walmart and get as good or 95% as good for 80% less.

    You can even buy almost anything you see on Amazon on Ebay and Ebay usually has free shipping. Skip Amazon.

    I think Bezos is going to teach Seattle a lesson in economics. Good for him. HQ2. Maybe HQ3.

  109. 859
    Eastsider says:

    Back to RE news, mortgage rates continue to move higher today. Yields have been rising so fast that the best short term bank CD yields are now lagging those of US Treasuries. Are mortgage rates also behind? Not cool.

  110. 860
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: David @ 857 – Um no Amazon is not simply a “website”.

    From their 2017 10k filing:

    “General
    Amazon.com opened its virtual doors on the World Wide Web in July 1995. We seek to be Earth’s most customer-centric company. We are guided by four principles: customer obsession rather than competitor focus, passion for invention, commitment to operational excellence, and long-term thinking. In each of our segments, we serve our primary customer sets, consisting of consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, and content creators. In addition, we provide services, such as advertising services and co-branded credit card agreements.
    We have organized our operations into three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (“AWS”). These segments reflect the way the Company evaluates its business performance and manages its operations. Additional information on our operating segments and our net sales is contained in Item 8 of Part II, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Note 11—Segment Information.” Our company-sponsored research and development expense is set forth within “Technology and content” in Item 8 of Part II, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Consolidated Statements of Operations.” The financial results of Whole Foods Market, Inc. (“Whole Foods Market”) have been included in our consolidated financial statements from the date of acquisition on August 28, 2017.

    Consumers
    We serve consumers through our retail websites and physical stores and focus on selection, price, and convenience. We design our websites to enable hundreds of millions of unique products to be sold by us and by third parties across dozens of product categories. Customers access our offerings through our websites, mobile apps, Alexa, and physically visiting our stores. We also manufacture and sell electronic devices, including Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, and Echo devices, and we develop and produce media content. We strive to offer our customers the lowest prices possible through low everyday product pricing and shipping offers, and to improve our operating efficiencies so that we can continue to lower prices for our customers. We also provide easy-to-use functionality, fast and reliable fulfillment, and timely customer service. In addition, we offer Amazon Prime, a membership program that includes unlimited free shipping on tens of millions of items, access to unlimited instant streaming of thousands of movies and TV episodes, and other benefits.
    We fulfill customer orders in a number of ways, including through: North America and International fulfillment and delivery networks that we operate; co-sourced and outsourced arrangements in certain countries; digital delivery; and through our physical stores. We operate customer service centers globally, which are supplemented by co-sourced arrangements. See Item 2 of Part I, “Properties.”

    Sellers
    We offer programs that enable sellers to grow their businesses, sell their products on our websites and their own branded websites, and fulfill orders through us. We are not the seller of record in these transactions. We earn fixed fees, a percentage of sales, per-unit activity fees, interest, or some combination thereof, for our seller programs.

    Developers and Enterprises
    We serve developers and enterprises of all sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through our AWS segment, which offers a broad set of global compute, storage, database, and other service offerings.

    Content Creators
    We serve authors and independent publishers with Kindle Direct Publishing, an online service that lets independent authors and publishers choose a 70% royalty option and make their books available in the Kindle Store, along with Amazon’s own publishing arm, Amazon Publishing. We also offer programs that allow authors, musicians, filmmakers, app developers, and others to publish and sell content.”

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872418000005/amzn-20171231x10k.htm#s613E41AD3F34560394F5D7B9A616DD32

  111. 861
    David says:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 859 – You DID NOT prove that Amazon IS NOT a website.

    Amazon is a WEBSITE! Here it is: http://www.amazon.com

  112. 862

    Interest Rates and Mortgage Rates Creeping Up

    Seattle Real Estate needs more Seattle cash.

  113. 863
    wreckingbull says:

    By David @ 857:

    AMAZON IS A WEBSITE. Walmart’s revenue in 1 year exceeds Amazon’s combined total revenue since its founding. Is every municipality going to raise a tax on Amazon’s employees? Why is Seattle special?

    Two companies – Walmart & Amazon. GUESS which one is indispensable to life in the USA?

    The answer is Walmart. .

    I have to disagree. If they both were in the business of just selling crap, maybe you could argue Walmart. But make no mistake – Amazon is a cloud services provider first, and a retailer second. AWS is used by small businesses, large corporations, and government institutions all over the world. Its adoption continues to grow rapidly. I’m no fan of the company, but the AWS tentacles run quite deep in all aspects of our daily lives. It’s sad, but true.

  114. 864

    By wreckingbull @ 862:

    By David @ 857:

    AMAZON IS A WEBSITE. Walmart’s revenue in 1 year exceeds Amazon’s combined total revenue since its founding. Is every municipality going to raise a tax on Amazon’s employees? Why is Seattle special?

    Two companies – Walmart & Amazon. GUESS which one is indispensable to life in the USA?

    The answer is Walmart. .

    I have to disagree. If they both were in the business of just selling crap, maybe you could argue Walmart. But make no mistake – Amazon is a cloud services provider first, and a retailer second. AWS is used by small businesses, large corporations, and government institutions all over the world. Its adoption continues to grow rapidly. I’m no fan of the company, but the AWS tentacles run quite deep in all aspects of our daily lives. It’s sad, but true.

    Rather than “website” I think their better argument would have been “retailer,” but I agree with you that they are much more than that, and AWS is a big part of that. Somewhat related to AWS though is their video and music streaming, the former of which is a good competitor to another major player–Netflix (which at one point used AWS–not sure if they still do.)

  115. 865
  116. 866
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 863

    Yes still runs on AWS. There have been some recent reports they are using Google Cloud for some AI, research and software testing capabilities too.

  117. 867
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 864 – For 2017, effectively all their operating income came from AWS. In other words, there is not much money to be made selling crap online.

  118. 868

    Erik, this is the LID I was talking about earlier for people who own property near the Seattle waterfront.

    http://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-proposes-lid-tax-for-homeowners-businesses-to-pay-for-waterfront-improvements

    I sort of agree with the owners that an LID is not really fair. Those are more for things that benefit the neighborhood, like new water lines. These changes are more things that benefit the community, which is why a fortune was spent on a tunnel. I’m surprised Seattle didn’t propose an LID to cover their cost of the tunnel. /sarc

  119. 869
    uwp says:

    By David @ 858:

    AMAZON IS A WEBSITE. Walmart’s revenue in 1 year exceeds Amazon’s combined total revenue since its founding.

    This is not true.
    Walmart’s revenue in the most recent year was just over 500 billion. Amazon had over 500 billion in revenue combined the last 4 years. Maybe you were exaggerating for effect, but it’s just not true.

    Also, Walmart revenue has grown 1.3% annually the last 5 years, Amazon 24%. I don’t think Walmart is going out of business, but Amazon is more than “just a website.”

  120. 870
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 864 – One other thing related to your point about Netflix. I dropped Netflix last month, after nearly 15 years, because their library is horrible now. If I want to watch a movie on a whim, I will stream for ‘free’ from Amazon Prime. If I want to watch good movies, I will buy the DVD, usually used, or go to Scarecrow Video.

  121. 871

    RE: wreckingbull @ 870 – I’ve been considering dropping Netflix for the first time, and I believe I’ve been with them from 1999. It was whenever DVD players cost about $600.

    Agree on their library. It seems to be 80% standup comedy and 20% movies I’ve already watched or would never watch. There are far too few TV series that you can just binge on.

  122. 872
    greg says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 782:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 780 – I don’t know what you’re talking about! greg/pfft thinks that increased costs contribute to increased employement. Given that they’ve proven that it’s too bad the head tax was cut in half, because that will undoubtedly result in fewer employers flocking to the City of Seattle to hire people paying them even more money!

    stop lying Kary, unless you can quote me saying that you are lying, You are a grown man Kary try acting like it.

  123. 873
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 871 – I hit the Fred Meyer discount bin about once per month and buy 5 movies for around $15. The pickings can be hit or miss, but I can usually leave the store with 5 decent movies I have not seen – movies that are not available on Netflix either DVD or streaming.

  124. 874

    With regard to West Seattle real estate, what’s the projection for downtime of the West Seattle Bridge due to the Viaduct project? Article from yesterday as to contractor chosen:

    http://westseattleblog.com/category/alaskan-way-viaduct/

    Have they developed a full alternate route like they did for the 520 during construction?

  125. 875
    Brian says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 874:

    With regard to West Seattle real estate, what’s the projection for downtime of the West Seattle Bridge due to the Viaduct project? Article from yesterday as to contractor chosen:

    http://westseattleblog.com/category/alaskan-way-viaduct/

    Have they developed a full alternate route like they did for the 520 during construction?

    Where did you hear there would be downtime for the West Seattle Bridge? The ‘viaduct’ isn’t being demolished that far south. The new tunnel connects to regular old 99 to the west seattle bridge.

  126. 876
    greg says:

    By uwp @ 798:

    I love the thought that a $275/per person tax will scare Amazon away.
    Amazon’s 45,000+ Seattle employees are paid an average of more than $110,000.

    This is the equivalent of a 0.0025% tax.

    Noted jobs wasteland Silicon Valley is in a state that would charge that same worker over $7,000 in state income taxes.

    Microsoft pays a head tax on employees for many years, yet i don’t see anyone here claiming it matters a damn or that it has driven away jobs… MS did whine when it went up but instead of leaving they spent about 100 to 200 million dollars improving local transit ..

    and now MS is spending billions expanding and upgrade their main campus… seems to me the HEAD TAX did not scare MSFT away…

  127. 877
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 874

    I don’t think there’s any projected downtime for the West Seattle bridge? They have already demo’d the southern portion of the viaduct back in 2011. This is the Alaska Way portion of the viaduct that runs along downtown to the battery street tunnel.

  128. 878
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: greg @ 876 – Redmond has an annual per FTE fee of $112.00 (per hour fee calculated by multiplying total hours worked by $0.058333; 1920 hours equivalent to 1 FTE). It applies to most businesses with very few exemptions.

    They probably didn’t complain because it only went up by like 5 dollars from 106.90 to 112.

    But Redmond also do not charge a business and occupation tax.

    It’s a significant difference and not an apples to apples comparison. Bellevue and Kirkland also charge an FTE fee but also not charge B&O taxes.

  129. 879

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 877RE: Brian @ 875

    Thank you both. West Seattle is not in “my service area” and I have only helped someone buy there once about 5 years ago. I just had a special client ask about a house there who is relatively new to Seattle, and just wanted to double check.

    Much appreciated!

  130. 880

    By Suburban Mom @ 877:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 874

    I don’t think there’s any projected downtime for the West Seattle bridge? They have already demo’d the southern portion of the viaduct back in 2011. This is the Alaska Way portion of the viaduct that runs along downtown to the battery street tunnel.

    But won’t there be downtime for Hwy 99, which will impact those going from West Seattle to downtown Seattle or further north?

  131. 881
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 880 – No the demo is scheduled to happen after the tunnel opens this Fall. http://mynorthwest.com/991384/it-will-cost-93m-to-demolish-the-alaskan-way-viaduct/?

  132. 882
    David says:

    RE: uwp @ 869 – I should have said Walmart PROFIT in 1 year exceeds all of Amazons corporate history. Walmart also dwarfs Amazon in revenue and customer total. It IS NOT even close.

    Also Walmart is beginning to get serious traction in e-commerce.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-earnings-beat-as-online-sales-surge-comp-sales-miss-2018-5

  133. 883
    David says:

    Trump Revival continues: Fed projects 3.4-4.1% growth in 2nd Quarter.

    https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

  134. 884
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 871RE: wreckingbull @ 863 – I’ve even used AWS. Amazon’s core money-maker is AWS.

    Netflix cannot afford GOOD domestic content for the USA because they are losing SOOO much money in overseas markets. And content providers are resisting Netflix.

  135. 885
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 868
    Does this tax include waterfront condos in West Seattle?

  136. 886
    Rupert D says:

    Selective comments from WSJ op-ed….Twenty cities are competing for Amazon’s second headquarters.
    Then there’s Seattle, Amazon’s current headquarters, which the city apparently wouldn’t mind driving away.
    Amazon suspended two building expansion projects. More than 100 large businesses including Expedia , Alaska Airlines and Redbox wrote a letter warning that the tax sends the message “to every business: if you are investing in growth, if you create too many jobs in Seattle, you will be punished,” which “will cause far greater damage to Seattle’s growth prospects than the direct impact on the businesses being taxed.” Three hundred or so small businesses also warned that “continuing tax increases and regulations will only hurt the small business community and will vastly change our city.” Even trade unions begged the council “not to tax our jobs away.” After the council scaled back the head tax, Amazon said it plans to resume work on one of its expansion projects, but a spokesperson noted that “we remain very apprehensive about the future created by the council’s hostile approach and rhetoric toward larger businesses, which forces us to question our growth here.” Many businesses have located and expanded in Seattle because Washington state doesn’t impose an income tax. Last year Washington’s GDP growth led the country at 4.4%. But Seattle’s city council seems to think this growth will continue no matter what it does. Ask Connecticut how that turns out.
    Liberals are bashing Amazon for wielding its political and economic clout to blunt a tax hike that would hurt all Seattle businesses and workers. Local leaders from Chicago, Denver, Dallas and Austin, among other cities, wrote a letter denouncing Amazon for “threatening Seattle over this tax.” Amazon should cross these cities off its second-headquarter list. Seattle businesses deserve credit for promoting a pro-growth climate rather than seeking special treatment for themselves. Companies in Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey have threatened to bolt to obtain lucrative tax subsidies. Businesses in those states would be better off if they collectively bargained with politicians for lower taxes and more favorable regulatory conditions.

  137. 887
    Rupert D says:

    The Seattle city council told Jeff Bezos “you didn’t build that!”

  138. 888

    By Erik @ 885:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 868
    Does this tax include waterfront condos in West Seattle?

    No, it’s just downtown. There was a map in the Times article today.

  139. 889
  140. 890
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 888
    Okay, then I support the tax. :)

  141. 891

    By Suburban Mom @ 881:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 880 – No the demo is scheduled to happen after the tunnel opens this Fall. http://mynorthwest.com/991384/it-will-cost-93m-to-demolish-the-alaskan-way-viaduct/?

    This says just the opposite, but demolition won’t begin until after the tunnel opens.

    http://komonews.com/news/local/the-end-of-the-road-is-in-view-wsdot-selects-contractor-to-tear-down-alaskan-way-viaduct

    WSDOT officials say the viaduct will be permanently closed before the new tunnel is expected to open in the fall. Workers will then realign SR-99 and the ramps at the tunnel portals. Once the tunnel opens, limited demolition work on the viaduct could begin in late 2018 with the majority of demolition completed in 2019.

  142. 892
    Suburban Mom says:

    Another cheerful piece by our favorite Seattle Times writer

    https://projects.seattletimes.com/2018/how-to-buy-a-home/

  143. 893
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 891

    It’s confusing but here’s a picture. They are targeting to open the tunnel in October. After the tunnel is open, the viaduct demo will begin.

    http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/Viaduct/Schedule

    The WSDOT press release announcing the award of the contract says this
    “Demolition cannot start until the tunnel opens to drivers, which could be as soon as this fall.”

    http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/Viaduct/library/advisories-and-updates/kiewit-wins-demo-contract

  144. 894
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 879
    You should start serving the West Seattle area in 2022. We need a top agent to get top dollar when the market peaks.

    I moved from Kirkland to West Seattle and it’s great. You should come hangout here too. It’s more laid back, people are nicer, and there are lots of things to do. That is if you don’t mind hanging out with us backwoods poor folk.

  145. 895

    RE: Erik @ 894

    Kim’s best friend is in Genessee. We come there to visit him from time to time. He called me Sunday with a next door neighbor problem. Tear down. Sucks to live next to a tear down in the middle of construction. Wreaking havoc on his retaining wall.

    I may be over that way soon to go see that and I’ll be sure to give you a heads up when I do.

    I only go there for “special” people. You’re on my special people list. :)

  146. 896
    Brian says:

    A lot of new listings today. My redfin search notifications were going off the hook. Too bad I can’t afford any of them anymore.

  147. 897
    S-Crow says:

    This is sobering:

    “Of the 28M loans originated since 2011, only 45,000 have 75bps of refi incentive and meet eligibility requirements. – (Black Knight 5/2018)

    Healthy robust mortgage markets are around the neighborhood of 70% refi, 30% Purchase. It’s completely inverted at the moment. My guess is that if rates continue to move up the Mortgage Bankers Assn. and NAR are going to be very active in DC.

    The mortgage market is going to have to change their product lines, qualifying guidelines or combination or continual rising rates will negatively impact sales at some point.

    Another:

    Refi Applications at 8-Year Low ~ (Mortgage Daily News, 5-15-2018)

    How many Refi offers have come in the mail to your place? I’ve had too many to count.

  148. 898
    Erik says:

    RE: Brian @ 896
    I’m poor too. I just buy condos that need work and fix them up. Then I sell them or rent them out. If you did that for a while, you could probably eventually afford something nice.

  149. 899

    By Suburban Mom @ 893:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 891

    It’s confusing but here’s a picture. They are targeting to open the tunnel in October. After the tunnel is open, the viaduct demo will begin.

    http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/Viaduct/Schedule

    The WSDOT press release announcing the award of the contract says this
    “Demolition cannot start until the tunnel opens to drivers, which could be as soon as this fall.”

    http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/Viaduct/library/advisories-and-updates/kiewit-wins-demo-contract

    But you’re missing my point. There will be a time when there is no Hwy 99 because they shut down the viaduct first, then open the tunnel after they connect up the parts, then they tear down the viaduct.

    I have not seen an estimate of how long it will be down. I think it’s likely more than a weekend project to connect up the parts, but maybe with enough planning, workers and concrete they can get it done quickly.

  150. 900

    By S-Crow @ 897:

    Healthy robust mortgage markets are around the neighborhood of 70% refi, 30% Purchase. It’s completely inverted at the moment. My guess is that if rates continue to move up the Mortgage Bankers Assn. and NAR are going to be very active in DC.

    I can see how the lack of refi business would be distressing for lenders and escrows, but I don’t see it as a systemic problem that needs to be solved for the good of society. There is nothing inherently good about refinancing a mortgage. If rates drop sufficiently then it can make sense, but if not then there’s zero reason to ever refinance. So in a rising rate market, that portion of the business will likely just disappear, except for those who can take cash out.

    My concern would be more that the less competent refinance lenders will move into the sale financing arena, and there’s no way to detect or protect against that.

  151. 901
    Deerhawke says:

    Seattle Times has a long interesting piece on buying in Seattle.

    https://projects.seattletimes.com/2018/how-to-buy-a-home/

    It is made to look like a board game, but clearly this game is not much fun.

  152. 902
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 895
    Give me a call or text next time you’re in my area. I started volunteering to help my remodel contractor on weekends, so advanced notice helps too.

  153. 903

    RE: Deerhawke @ 900 – That was linked above, but it’s somewhat overly simplistic and even misleading. For example, as to misleading although cash buyers are a huge concern for buyers needing financing, there’s no real difference between a buyer with 20% down conventional and 3% down conventional. What can make the difference is the ability to bring in more dollars in the event of a low appraisal, but other than that the percent down should not make a significant different to a seller. Note though when I do my spreadsheets in multiple offer situations I include that information because sellers do tend to want to know.

    It’s also somewhat misleading in other ways, and that doesn’t provide a benefit to buyers reading it to get information on what to do. For example, there are no statistics indicating that “most” buyers get pre-inspections or that it’s “standard” to waive financing contingencies. I would assert neither is true, but again there are no statistics.

    What this means is that some poor buyer reading the article will think they need 20% down, to pay for a pre-inspection and to waive financing to compete, none of which is necessarily true. It’s another good reason why you should be skeptical of anything you read in a newspaper. Reporters are not experts in their field. Some (not this author) are downright stupid.

    On the positive side, the article does note that the highest offer may not be the best, and also that many agents don’t fill in the forms properly–two points I’ve repeatedly hit on. As to the latter though, a buyer really has little way to assess their agent’s ability to fill in forms, although some errors should be obvious. But the thing is, buyers with such agents will have a much harder getting their offers accepted and not know why. The article definitely could have hit on that harder, because that is likely the main problem for many if not most buyers (based on the offer I see written by other agents–which is a large sample but not large enough).

  154. 904
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 899 – I think his point was actually when the refi business dries up, the lobbying heats up. As we know, that rarely ends well.

  155. 905

    RE: S-Crow @ 897
    At My HOA

    No one qualifies because everything is conventional type loans with hefty down payments now…the home insurance is down to only one company at double rates; meaning the home insurance is looking for past claims and likely cancelling if you have them…you don’t qualify to buy with a loan.

    Impact of past short sells on loans? I imagine the credit rating is marginal with a short sell in your past.

    Money from banks is getting tight and loose loans are gone…

  156. 906

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 902
    If I Was the Bank Holding a Deed on a $700,000 1920 Seattle Museum Home

    I would be very picky lending to a buyer; it could be destroyed and they hand the keys back to me….

  157. 907

    Here’s an interesting case. Purchase sale agreement has a $3,000 earnest money. Buyer backs out, requests EM back, seller refuses. Title company interpleads money into court and the court ultimately gives the money to the buyer. It also awards over $36,000 in attorney fees! Appellate court reverses the award of attorney fees on the particular facts of the case, making it clear that the result might be different on different facts.

    http://www.courts.wa.gov/opinions/pdf/350363_pub.pdf

    What I find interesting is spending $36,000 in fees to get $3,000. Absent some sort of public interest in the litigation, I’m not sure how the buyer would be entitled to more than $3,000 in attorney fees, but I haven’t researched that for a while. But in general fees have to be reasonable, and spending $36,000 to get $3,000 is not reasonable, absent perhaps bad faith of the other party to make the litigation difficult. Also note the listing agent was likely entitled to half the $3,000, so the seller was really only fighting over $1,500. Crazy.

    Unfortunately, the facts do not make the timing of this transaction clear–whether it occurred before or after the new statutory procedures for getting money back.

  158. 908

    By wreckingbull @ 903:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 899 – I think his point was actually when the refi business dries up, the lobbying heats up. As we know, that rarely ends well.

    That could be, but my point was there’s no real reason to change anything (other than maybe to get campaign donations–in which case proposed legislation will probably be pending in Congress for years!).

  159. 909
    kenmorem says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 902
    the recent ST article about how to buy a house is basically a 100% snapshot on what happened with the property we just sold in north seattle. almost down to a T.

  160. 910
    Ross says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 906:

    Here’s an interesting case. Purchase sale agreement has a $3,000 earnest money. Buyer backs out, requests EM back, seller refuses. Title company interpleads money into court and the court ultimately gives the money to the buyer. It also awards over $36,000 in attorney fees! Appellate court reverses the award of attorney fees on the particular facts of the case, making it clear that the result might be different on different facts.

    http://www.courts.wa.gov/opinions/pdf/350363_pub.pdf

    What I find interesting is spending $36,000 in fees to get $3,000. Absent some sort of public interest in the litigation, I’m not sure how the buyer would be entitled to more than $3,000 in attorney fees, but I haven’t researched that for a while. But in general fees have to be reasonable, and spending $36,000 to get $3,000 is not reasonable, absent perhaps bad faith of the other party to make the litigation difficult. Also note the listing agent was likely entitled to half the $3,000, so the seller was really only fighting over $1,500. Crazy.

    Unfortunately, the facts do not make the timing of this transaction clear–whether it occurred before or after the new statutory procedures for getting money back.

    Out of curiosity, why is the listing agent entitled to $1500? Is that standard terms in a listing contract?

  161. 911

    RE: kenmorem @ 908 – I remember you disclosed some information on number of offers and amount, but I don’t recall anything on down payment amount, inspections or finance contingency provisions. Of those, not having a financing contingency would be in your interest as seller, altering normal inspection processes might have worked against you, and the down payment again probably wouldn’t have mattered if you took a financed offer. A waiver of low appraisal provisions would have depended on how it was done (something not covered by the article). Again it’s the ability to deal with a low appraisal that matters on financed transactions (well that and the lender and ability of the buyer to actually get a loan approved).

    BTW, I don’t mean to be overly critical of the article. It’s much better than anything you’re likely to find on Zillow’s website.

  162. 912

    By Ross @ 910:

    Out of curiosity, why is the listing agent entitled to $1500? Is that standard terms in a listing contract?

    Yes, paragraph 13 of the standard form. The idea is that the broker did what they were supposed to do–bring a buyer into contract. Assuming the broker did their due diligence and the buyer didn’t breach due to an obvious disqualification to perform I don’t really have a problem with that idea.

    In reality though it can better be used to help resolve EM disputes. For example, the agent in the case I linked could have offered to give up his $1,500 with each side then getting $1,500, and maybe then they wouldn’t have spent time litigating!

    BTW, losing EM is so uncommon I’ve never had a situation where I got the 50% or where the other side did. I would also note that case apparently this wasn’t a situation where the buyer lost the EM.

  163. 913
    N says:

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-seattle-head-tax-progressive-regressive-bad-policy-gardner/

    Seattle businesses currently account for almost 60 percent of the total city budget. At what point will companies decide that it’s just too expensive to operate here?

    According to data from the City of Seattle, funding to address homelessness has already increased by 60 percent from $39 million to more than $63 million over the past four years.

  164. 914
    Scotsman says:

    Seattle…..so stupid and short-sighted: Increase money for the homeless, improving their condition and you get….more homeless. Which of course requires more money for the increasing number of homeless….. And on it goes until soft hearted (at least in some minds) Seattle is the new homeless capital.

  165. 915
    N says:

    @ Brian 896 – Listings certainly appear to be picking up. Its only 11am on Friday but we are already sitting about 17% above 2017 listings for the same Friday in May.

    At this rate we may see inventory above 2016 levels before summer is over.

  166. 916
    Brian says:

    By N @ 915:

    @ Brian 896 – Listings certainly appear to be picking up. Its only 11am on Friday but we are already sitting about 17% above 2017 listings for the same Friday in May.

    At this rate we may see inventory above 2016 levels before summer is over.

    I wonder if 2017 = 2005 and 2018 = 2006. Looks like the pattern is setting up that way.
    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/KingCoSFHInventory_2018-03.png

    Need a graph with year over year % change in inventory to correctly compare

  167. 917
    N says:

    @ Brian 916 – The interesting thing is this pattern is not happening everywhere. King County yes, but other Snohomish for example is flat to down YOY. Spokane is down 20% YOY. I suspect other counties in the area also are similar. Maybe driven more by affordability.

  168. 918
    uwp says:

    By N @ 915:

    At this rate we may see inventory above 2016 levels before summer is over.

    Who could forget the glory days of Summer 2016:

    King County Slightly Less Bleak For Buyers Than Surrounding Region (July 2016)
    “Months of supply is downright bleak for buyers across the board. ”

    NWMLS: Listings Inch Up, Sales Dip, Prices Slip (August 2016)
    “We still have a long way to go to get to anything remotely resembling a balanced market, but you can’t walk around the world until you take the first step.”

    NWMLS: Sales Up, Listings Down in August (September 2016)
    “If the last few months had been showing some tiny signs of hope for buyers, August certainly snuffed those out. ”

    SeattleBubble posts from that time frame.

  169. 919
    wreckingbull says:

    By Scotsman @ 914:

    Seattle…..so stupid and short-sighted: Increase money for the homeless, improving their condition and you get….more homeless. Which of course requires more money for the increasing number of homeless….. And on it goes until soft hearted (at least in some minds) Seattle is the new homeless capital.

    I was talking to a friend about this yesterday. Let’s assume there are unlimited funds for homeless programs in Seattle. What does that scenario look like 12 months down the road, 24, months down the road, and beyond? The answer is that the city will attract homeless faster than it can deal with it, just as the last five years have shown. It’s like we want Seattle to become the sacrificial zinc galvanic anode for the entire nation. Send us your homeless while we corrode away.

    On the other hand, I think horror at the Ballard VW dealership this week is going to really wake up some people and could serve as a turning point.

  170. 920
    Brian says:

    By N @ 917:

    @ Brian 916 – The interesting thing is this pattern is not happening everywhere. King County yes, but other Snohomish for example is flat to down YOY. Spokane is down 20% YOY. I suspect other counties in the area also are similar. Maybe driven more by affordability.

    Yeah, I think it’s affordability. Can’t afford King County, have to settle for Snohomish.

  171. 921
    David says:

    RE: N @ 915 – Your granular analysis is for a “particular Friday”?

    That really is killing the golden goose of low inventory. What? Are there like 10 people living in this town where a modest increase in inventory is HYUGE?

  172. 922
    kenmorem says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 911
    here’s the property. just closed minutes ago: https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/9506-Interlake-Ave-N-98103/unit-B/home/104632

    7 offers at bid review date. all had escalation clauses. most went up to $750k. most had earnest money of $50k.

    final price was $790k. appraisal came in at $760k. they asked us to lower and we said no since we already had $50k earnest sitting in the bank and bid #2 had re-escalated to $780k and was more than happy to pounce on an opportunity.

  173. 923
    Brian says:

    RE: David @ 921
    Inventory has been above last year for a couple months now. It’s worth talking about.

  174. 924

    By David @ 921:

    RE: N @ 915 – Your granular analysis is for a “particular Friday”?

    That really is killing the golden goose of low inventory. What? Are there like 10 people living in this town where a modest increase in inventory is HYUGE?

    Getting back to 2016 isn’t huge, but if we could get to 2 months of inventory that would be much more relaxed for buyers, and still okay for sellers.

  175. 925

    RE: kenmorem @ 922 – It looks like you encouraged pre-inspections–did the buyer who ended up buying do one? That’s the type of issue I was addressing on the Time’s article.

    Also, you mentioned the EM, but did they not have a financing contingency or later waive it? Because if not they could have likely gotten that back. That’s also somewhat related to the article.

  176. 926
    David says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 922 – Why are people paying $300k over what they could easily get down in Burien for $500k?

  177. 927
    kenmorem says:

    By David @ 926:

    RE: kenmorem @ 922 – Why are people paying $300k over what they could easily get down in Burien for $500k?

    light rail station in 3 years — 10 minute walk

  178. 928
    kenmorem says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 925:

    RE: kenmorem @ 922 – It looks like you encouraged pre-inspections–did the buyer who ended up buying do one? That’s the type of issue I was addressing on the Time’s article.

    Also, you mentioned the EM, but did they not have a financing contingency or later waive it? Because if not they could have likely gotten that back. That’s also somewhat related to the article.

    no inspections done. all offers waived it and just about everything else.

    regarding EM: my realtor took the necessary steps to ensure the EM was safe in our hands and that it could not be retracted.

  179. 929
    ess says:

    By Brian @ 920:

    By N @ 917:

    @ Brian 916 – The interesting thing is this pattern is not happening everywhere. King County yes, but other Snohomish for example is flat to down YOY. Spokane is down 20% YOY. I suspect other counties in the area also are similar. Maybe driven more by affordability.

    Yeah, I think it’s affordability. Can’t afford King County, have to settle for Snohomish.

    We “settled” for South Snohomish County years ago. Not only was the price of housing about half of what one obtained for a comparable house in the more modest areas of north Seattle, but the residential parcels were bigger and as a result houses are not on top of each other. In some ways it even appears to be a better choice. Most single family neighborhoods are not under pressure to develop as they are in Seattle. If I own a single family residence, I am not interested in a six story mixed use no parking spot apartment building abutting or towering over near my house. In addition – with the dramatic increases in property taxes everywhere – the fact that property taxes in South Snohomish County are still approximately half of what they are in Seattle is now a major factor with double digit increases. Best of all – no long term camping parties in our town or parks, no needles everywhere, and no use of the streets as bathrooms. Furthermore, at last report, the bathrooms at car dealerships are fairly safe for all who use them. Our city council acts in a rational manner, occasionally actually listening to the citizens. And with express bus, and soon to be developed light rail – we in South Snohomish County can get to and from downtown Seattle almost as fast as those that live in out of the way Seattle places.

  180. 930
    BacktoBasics says:

    Seattle add head tax on big company may push these companies to move their employee to the east side. Most these employee are IT related, so it can move move anywhere with more tax friendly policy. Bellevue, Kirkland are more livable and much more business friendly.

  181. 931

    RE: ess @ 929 – There does seem to be a lot of pressure on Seattle to upzone neighborhoods, and that would make me very nervous if I lived in Seattle. Upzoning wouldn’t even help the homeless that much, except for dedicated housing that might be built. It would mainly just help those with the income level slightly below the income level of those currently buying more outlying Seattle condos and some renters.

  182. 932
    pfft says:

    Oh boy, Trump(aka david dennison) more than trumps the Seattle city council.

    President Trump has been urging the postmaster general to double the U.S. Postal Service rates for Amazon, the Washington Post — which is owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos — reported Friday. Some administration officials told the Post that many Trump attacks on Amazon — which include accusing the Washington Post of being its “chief lobbyist” — are driven by articles in the newspaper he didn’t like.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-amazon-us-postal-service-rake-hikes

    That would have cost Amazon BILLIONS.

  183. 933
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 931:

    RE: ess @ 929 – There does seem to be a lot of pressure on Seattle to upzone neighborhoods, and that would make me very nervous if I lived in Seattle. Upzoning wouldn’t even help the homeless that much, except for dedicated housing that might be built. It would mainly just help those with the income level slightly below the income level of those currently buying more outlying Seattle condos and some renters.

    so it would help people that are on the cusp of homelessness? that’s what you want to do.

    “Upzoning wouldn’t even help the homeless that much, except for dedicated housing that might be built.”

    so besides housing the homeless, it wouldn’t help much? come on people!

  184. 934
    David says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 927 – You could buy a Mercedes S Class and pocket $600,000 by investing another $200k for 20 years. Whereas you’d still have 10 years left to pay on that house.

  185. 935
    pfft says:

    By BacktoBasics @ 930:

    Seattle add head tax on big company may push these companies to move their employee to the east side. Most these employee are IT related, so it can move move anywhere with more tax friendly policy. Bellevue, Kirkland are more livable and much more business friendly.

    Why the eastside, why not Arizona or Mexico and then whatever country is even cheaper than Mexico? These same companies and their employees probably want to solve the homeless problem too. The problem may literally be at their door. No business wants employees or customers scared off by the homelessness situation either. It’s a quality of life issue too that could cost talent.

  186. 936
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: pfft @ 935
    Phoenix is not bad. Plenty of flat land for tent city. Enough space for Amazon to build distribution center. Solar energy is year around to power data cloud center. Most importantly, business friendly.

  187. 937
    pfft says:

    By BacktoBasics @ 936:

    RE: pfft @ 935
    Phoenix is not bad. Plenty of flat land for tent city. Enough space for Amazon to build distribution center. Solar energy is year around to power data cloud center. Most importantly, business friendly.

    you mean the downside consequences of businesses are not borne by the businesses but by someone else? BTW Arizona is making it tougher for solar business to do business in the state. Solar uses a lot less water and other resources than most other power sources. There also is way less pollution which is a huge negative externality.

    Rooftop Solar Dims Under Pressure From Utility Lobbyists
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/08/climate/rooftop-solar-panels-tax-credits-utility-companies-lobbying.html

    Google negative externality.

  188. 938

    RE: David @ 926

    I hope you know the answer to your own question.

  189. 939
    ess says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 931:

    RE: ess @ 929 – There does seem to be a lot of pressure on Seattle to upzone neighborhoods, and that would make me very nervous if I lived in Seattle. Upzoning wouldn’t even help the homeless that much, except for dedicated housing that might be built. It would mainly just help those with the income level slightly below the income level of those currently buying more outlying Seattle condos and some renters.

    We lived in a house that was near an area that was upzoned for future light rail. Even though it was a few blocks away – I still had no interest in living in an upzoned area with more density and traffic – very different from then area I moved in to. So that house became a rental – and a smaller rental house smack in the middle of a single family neighborhood became our primary residence. Perfect for everyone. Tenants like the increased goods and services an upzoned area provides, and they don’t remember the “good old days” of the suburban lifestyle that we once had. We reside in the middle of a single family area with houses much larger and more expensive, and there is no danger of any upzoning affecting us here.

    Those who I feel sorry for are those who only own one house and are impacted by all of this growth. Check out the second illustration in the following article about Highway 99 development in the city of Edmonds. Somehow if that was my house next to the apartment building – I wouldn’t be too comforted, even though the article indicates that the setbacks that would be required on apartment buildings are sure to address everyone’s concerns. No thanks – not for me!

    http://myedmondsnews.com/2018/05/transforming-highway-99-revitalized-roadway-could-attract-a-range-of-housing-options/

  190. 940
    pedaltothemetal says:

    I was lying in my room
    And the news came on TV
    A lotta people out there hurtin’
    And it really scares me

    Love and mercy, that’s what you need tonight
    Love and mercy to you and your friends tonight

  191. 941
    pedaltothemetal says:

    All the people on here who still think Seattle is a cool should grow a mullet, or possibly dreadlocks… aren’t those still cool?

  192. 942
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Seattle is the mullet of the 2010’s. Just wait till its over. Or sell now.

  193. 943
    pedaltothemetal says:

    I suspect there will be a high correlation between those who failed to cut their mullet coming out of the 80s and those who fail to sell their Seattle moss pit before it looses it’s charm.

  194. 944
    pedaltothemetal says:

    I strongly suspect Erik still has a mullet, but can’t tell from the picture.

  195. 945

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 944

    I’m pretty sure he’s not old enough to remember mullets let alone “still have” one.

  196. 946
    greg says:

    By pfft @ 935:

    By BacktoBasics @ 930:

    Seattle add head tax on big company may push these companies to move their employee to the east side. Most these employee are IT related, so it can move move anywhere with more tax friendly policy. Bellevue, Kirkland are more livable and much more business friendly.

    Why the eastside, why not Arizona or Mexico and then whatever country is even cheaper than Mexico? These same companies and their employees probably want to solve the homeless problem too. The problem may literally be at their door. No business wants employees or customers scared off by the homelessness situation either. It’s a quality of life issue too that could cost talent.

    Talent is the answer.

    Google has a place in Kirkland i think it has room for a couple of thousand folks. Why kirkland? well they wanted to get a a couple of dudes who did not want to go to the valley… so the valley came to them…
    They of course also knew they could ween aways a lot of MSFT’s talent…

    MSFT got this ball rolling, as MS grew it became a reservoir of talent that allowed small and medium companies to set up here.. …

    We got lucky several times. Amazon is one of them, i see folks here whining and crying but without the tech Seattle would be just another struggling region bidding for Amazon’s 2nd HQ

  197. 947

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 945:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 944

    I’m pretty sure he’s not old enough to remember mullets let alone “still have” one.

    And I’m too old to remember mullets–at least for people I actually knew in person. Probably a narrow window.

  198. 948
    David says:

    Visit Wal-mart after 10PM and you’ll see a few mullets. And lots of other stuff.

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 945

  199. 949
    David says:

    I have no idea. Educate me. I’m new to the area.

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 938:

    RE: David @ 926

    I hope you know the answer to your own question.

  200. 950
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 947 – Don’t play coy, Kary. I know you are rocking a sweet skullet in that avatar. We just cant’ see it.

  201. 951
    Erik says:

    Maybe The Tim is trying to starve us out until we leave? He’s probably thinking if he posts once a month, we’ll finally go away. You use to feed us regularly and now it’s only occasional scraps. Well I am sticking around until you finally kick me off or shut this site down.

  202. 952
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Saw some bezos in eastlake today. Luckily, I didn’t step in it.

    Also… You do realize that the Amazon arrow logo is a not so subliminal message to go fuck yourself with every box you open.

    Depending on your Amazon shopping habits, that can make for a sore road ahead.

  203. 953
    pfft says:

    By pfft @ 932:

    Oh boy, Trump(aka david dennison) more than trumps the Seattle city council.

    President Trump has been urging the postmaster general to double the U.S. Postal Service rates for Amazon, the Washington Post — which is owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos — reported Friday. Some administration officials told the Post that many Trump attacks on Amazon — which include accusing the Washington Post of being its “chief lobbyist” — are driven by articles in the newspaper he didn’t like.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-amazon-us-postal-service-rake-hikes

    That would have cost Amazon BILLIONS.

    Did you guys miss this? Just wondering.

    You guys are so transparent. You flipped out over the Amazon tax and not a word. This would have costs BILLIONS of dollars and it as all because Trump didn’t like what the WaPo was reporting and because the President is not only deeply ignorant about everything but specifically about Amazon and the Post Office.

    You guys have been outed as partisan Republicans and nothing more!

  204. 954
    redmondjp says:

    By pfft @ 953:

    By pfft @ 932:

    Oh boy, Trump(aka david dennison) more than trumps the Seattle city council.

    President Trump has been urging the postmaster general to double the U.S. Postal Service rates for Amazon, the Washington Post — which is owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos — reported Friday. Some administration officials told the Post that many Trump attacks on Amazon — which include accusing the Washington Post of being its “chief lobbyist” — are driven by articles in the newspaper he didn’t like.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-amazon-us-postal-service-rake-hikes

    That would have cost Amazon BILLIONS.

    Did you guys miss this? Just wondering.

    You guys are so transparent. You flipped out over the Amazon tax and not a word. This would have costs BILLIONS of dollars and it as all because Trump didn’t like what the WaPo was reporting and because the President is not only deeply ignorant about everything but specifically about Amazon and the Post Office.

    You guys have been outed as partisan Republicans and nothing more!

    This is a real estate blog – stop trolling with your political garbage. When does the OSF check arrive this month?

  205. 955
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Dear young software engineer.

    Look at the senior engineers around you. Many of these folks were lucky to buy homes in the Seattle area at around 2x, maybe 3x their annual salaries. For you, it will be 4x, maybe 6x your annual salary.
    The older folks enjoyed being part of the real growth phase of the company. You, not so much.
    Young software engineer, In all practical terms, your life in Seattle will be comparable with that of a high school janitor in Shoreline in the 90s. Your real wages, adjusted for housing inflation might put you slightly behind that janitor.

    Let the old, let the h1b have this town.

    There are amazing opportunities all around this country.

    Some of those opportunities are surely more interesting than keeping legacy eCommerce code up and running.

    Don’t step in the Bezos.

    You worked hard, you were not an English major, you deserve better.

  206. 956

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 833
    Seattle Boeing is FOREIGN Nationalized

    Read their Frontiers Company magazine….inside you’ll find that Japan mainly leads Boeing and without Asian assistance the company would fold….American Safety Engineers are deplorables and butcher axed as a result….pathetic. I pity the FAA certification role over Japanese 737 Engineering Drawings replacing English Seattle Manufacturing Engineering…fire the FAA over 737 surveillance, why do we need them now? They can’t read the drawings.

  207. 957

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 955
    Yes…I saw Engineering Pay for American Engineers in a cost proposal for a small electrical assembly Bellevue Company

    $17/hr….yes, I’ll repeat $17/hr….garbage workers make twice that.

    And you have a college loan debt of average $30K to boot? LOL….pathetic.

  208. 958

    RE: redmondjp @ 954
    Amazon is not the Reason for the USPS Going Bankrupt Lately

    Blame the internet bill paying and 1st Class stamp sales down for that. That said, should Amazon pay less postage or more? I say they pay the same rates I do.

  209. 959

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 955
    Hey Petalto the metal

    What kind of hot rod do you drive? When you measure your acceleration use an iPhone and film the speedometer on a movie….stop watch the 0-60 mph and get a real spec….not that Fake Car and Driver news. Hades, my 6 cylinder Dodge Charger gets 35 mpg hwy and is spec’d at 6.2 sec 0-60 mph….LOL….try in 4-5 sec it goes like 70-80 mph especially with the lighter 5 speed [they stopped making it in 2014 BTW] from Mercedes [yes, we used to sell transmissions to Mercedes a few years ago, now we don’t have enough American engineers to design our own sedan transmission, let alone design our own sedan….LOL]…we are a 3rd world country with Manufacturing Engineering.

  210. 960

    By kenmorem @ 922:

    final price was $790k. appraisal came in at $760k. they asked us to lower and we said no since we already had $50k earnest sitting in the bank and bid #2 had re-escalated to $780k and was more than happy to pounce on an opportunity.

    By kenmorem @ 928:

    regarding EM: my realtor took the necessary steps to ensure the EM was safe in our hands and that it could not be retracted.

    I didn’t bother with this part of your posts earlier, because I didn’t want to look up the statute, but I stumbled across this video this morning, which explains it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLD3mgg0Juw

    Basically if you’d tried to retain the $50,000 you would have likely lost in court because it’s in excess of the 5% safe harbor allowed by statute (which I still haven’t looked up). There are some exceptions, see material starting at 5:15 of the video, none of which probably applied to you. So if you had not given back the balance in excess of 5% you could have likely ended up in expensive litigation like the case I posted above about the $3,000 EM.

    What’s interesting about these WR videos is Annie often doesn’t understand where the pressure for the provision comes from. She’ll assume it’s the seller asking for no inspection rights, or here the seller asking for a large EM, but in reality, it’s more often the buyer doing the whatever to make their offer more appealing. So in your case, I assume you didn’t ask the large EM, it was just offered by the buyer. Lots of this crazy stuff is buyer-driven.

    Whenever I get an offer in with an EM in excess of 5% that does not make the offer more attractive than if the buyer had simply provided proof of funds. And if I had two 20% conventional financing offers otherwise similar, one with 10% EM and one with $10,000 EM and proof of funds for the balance of the 20% the lower offer might be more attractive. (Note my offer instructions typically ask for proof of funds even on financed offers.)

    BTW, this assumes there was no other basis to avoid the contract, such as no legal, a critical box not checked or Form 17 issues. Whenever an attorney asks me about a situation where either a buyer or seller wants out of a contract I always ask to see the contract, because there is frequently a way out due to a defect in the contract. If there were such a basis you’d likely need to give back all of the $50k.

  211. 961

    By wreckingbull @ 950:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 947 – Don’t play coy, Kary. I know you are rocking a sweet skullet in that avatar. We just cant’ see it.

    Maybe I should change my avatar to my driver’s license photo when I was 20 and had long hair and a beard. Still not a mullet, but a lot different than my current look.

  212. 962

    Previously the issue of Boeing and whether it had complied with the jobs requirement for its tax break came up. Wasn’t this plane the plane at issue? The 777x?

    https://www.engadget.com/2018/05/18/boeing-folding-wingtips-faa-777x/

    If so, it’s not even being built in mass yet, so the employment impact of it would be relatively slight at this point. I don’t really follow Boeing models, so I don’t know if this will replace the 777 entirely. If it does, then I imagine the impact of the tax deal would be to retain jobs here, not add new jobs.

  213. 963

    Here’s a WR video on non-refundable EM, and the problems that can arise with that even if the amount is under 5%.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO-KcQSWscQ

    One of the issues covered is that other form provisions might provide for a return of EM in certain situations, and then you have a contract with conflicting provisions. Most likely the court would hold that the more specific provision would control, so for example, if a low appraisal made financing not possible with 20% down, the provisions of 22A providing for return of the EM would likely control. At the very least you’d have an issue to contest, which is not good.

    I recently had a contract where the buyer offered non-refundable EM, and I had to counter to deal with the other forms issue, by providing language that those terms controlled over conflicting terms.

  214. 964
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 962
    It’s good for Washington state to keep composite technology in the state because that’s where the future is for airplanes. 777x is a composite wing. To build the wing, you need huge ovens called autoclaves to make the wing. If that tooling is in our state, that’s a good reason for Boeing to keep work here.

  215. 965

    RE: Erik @ 964 – I don’t know where those wings will be made. The article I linked doesn’t say. I was referring to the major assembly, like what’s being done with the 737 and 787. As we all know, part of the 787 assembly is done in SC, and the components are made all over the world.

  216. 966
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 965 – When I worked at Boeing Materiel many years ago, it was common to hear people talk about how Boeing would never, ever in a million years outsource the wing. They might outsource the rest, but never the wing. Of course, as we all know now, the 787 wing is built in Japan by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. I think the 777X wing will remain in Everett (for now).

  217. 967
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 922

    Wow congratulations!

    So how did that work, do you get to keep that earnest money AND then go with bid #2 @$780K?

  218. 968

    By Green-Horn @ 967:

    RE: kenmorem @ 922

    Wow congratulations!

    So how did that work, do you get to keep that earnest money AND then go with bid #2 @$780K?

    Re-read. The first just apparently brought in more money. Also see my posts 960 & 963 which go through some of what might have happened if the first had backed out.

  219. 969

    RE: Green-Horn @ 967

    The Earnest Money is applied toward the final bill of $780,000. It is not in addition to the $780,000. Whether the Earnest Money is released immediately to the seller or held until closing, it is still a deduction on the final closing sheet from the $780,000.

  220. 970
    pfft says:

    By redmondjp @ 954:

    By pfft @ 953:

    By pfft @ 932:

    Oh boy, Trump(aka david dennison) more than trumps the Seattle city council.

    President Trump has been urging the postmaster general to double the U.S. Postal Service rates for Amazon, the Washington Post — which is owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos — reported Friday. Some administration officials told the Post that many Trump attacks on Amazon — which include accusing the Washington Post of being its “chief lobbyist” — are driven by articles in the newspaper he didn’t like.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-amazon-us-postal-service-rake-hikes

    That would have cost Amazon BILLIONS.

    Did you guys miss this? Just wondering.

    You guys are so transparent. You flipped out over the Amazon tax and not a word. This would have costs BILLIONS of dollars and it as all because Trump didn’t like what the WaPo was reporting and because the President is not only deeply ignorant about everything but specifically about Amazon and the Post Office.

    You guys have been outed as partisan Republicans and nothing more!

    This is a real estate blog – stop trolling with your political garbage. When does the OSF check arrive this month?

    don’t know what OSF is I’ve been here 10 years. go bother someone else.

    Amazon has been a very big topic, especially when people here can bash local Seattle government. Just pointing
    out the silence and hypocrisy. don’t worry I understand.

  221. 971
    pfft says:

    Hey you guys can’t talk about Boeing or redmon will yell at you!

  222. 972
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: pfft @ 970 – I’d rather talk about the future of a local employer, which directly affects Seattle real estate, than your tired old DNC/Soros talking points. Thanks.

  223. 973
    piggyshooz says:

    RE: David @ 926 – because Burien has erroded since the city has had a revolving door of crazy council members that won’t do anything sensible that would stray from the teaching of Karl Marx. Still cant believe they were stupid enough to annex North highline….not sure what possible good could come from adding that to any city. Also the tripling if commute time into Seattle in the last decade thanks to the viaduct mess has isolated the city from seattle. The city council really needs to get a hold of the recent shooting incidents.

  224. 974
    piggyshooz says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 945 – mullets just might make a come back, all the millenials are wearing Jean jackets and listening to 80s music….seems like a slippery slope.

  225. 975

    The Seattle Times is also running a piece on home inspectors, but it’s not a local piece–I won’t bother linking the article–it’s just more reporters reporting on things they don’t understand.

    I bring it up for a different reason. I think our brokerage system is broken. Apparently malpractice insurance is so cheap that brokerages don’t care that their brokers are engaged in behavior which is not only anti-consumer, but also adverse to their clients’ interests. And good examples of that pertains to the inspection area, specifically, seller’s doing pre-inspections and accepting offers without inspection contingencies. (To be clear, I’m talking about those being done without adequate disclosure in writing–a consumer could be informed of the risks and choose to engage in those behaviors.)

    Now obviously I can’t base this on the actual review and feedback that other brokerages give their agents, because I’m not a party to that. I can’t even judge my own firm, because I don’t engage in those activities. I’m judging it more from the lawsuits I find or hear about, and also the comments made by agents. But also, just the fact that they perpetuate and spread causes me to think there is way too little oversight of agents by brokerages.

    I think what’s causing this issue at most firms is that they don’t want to scare the agents away. What many people probably don’t realize is that being a broker at a firm (except maybe a firm like Redfin) doesn’t involve applying for a position. It more typically involves a firm recruiting an agent–agents that produce are sought after. Or at the very least it’s more about the agent interviewing the firm than the firm interviewing the agent. So if a firm interferes with what an agent is doing, the agent can easily go elsewhere. But that doesn’t entirely explain it, because even for Redfin–they don’t seem to have the same consistency between agents that they had in the past. They seem to be giving their agents more latitude as to procedures.

    Anyway, none of this is good for consumers because although the risk of a lawsuit is very small, the consequences of being involved in a lawsuit can be severe, both financially and emotionally. It will be interesting to see the lawsuits that result from our current crazy market and the procedures adopted by agents.

  226. 976

    As to S-Crow’s earlier post about rising interest rates, apparently they aren’t on NAR’s radar–yet. These are their current issues. I don’t agree with them all–e.g. extending the distressed property tax provisions, but none seem to be related to rates.

    http://realtormag.realtor.org/news-and-commentary/feature/article/2018/05/top-4-issues-realtors-took-capitol-hill#!#sf189854453

  227. 977
    whatsmyname says:

    From 5 years ago today. What must he be thinking now?

    No Name Guy says:
    May 20, 2013 at 1:10 pm
    By The Tim:

    The current market is officialy nuts.

    Yes, yes it is.

  228. 978
    Millenial Engineer says:

    Tim, could you consider putting a forum on the website? It’d be great if there were a place to discuss the Head Tax offline so we can all get back to Case-Shiller HPI. Oh, wait….

    On the topic of Case-Shiller HPI. When I moved here 3 years ago, Seattle HPI was about 175 and 238. Seattle Median Home price was around $550k with 4% rates, now we are $820 and 5% rates. Employers looking to provide middle-income jobs in DT Seattle, such as those where myself and my peers work, are going to experience labor issues very soon as people move out of the area or into better-paying industries, namely tech. In fact, I think some employers are already feeling the pinch judging by the job postings I’ve been tracking.

  229. 979

    RE: pfft @ 937
    And They’re All Made in China….

    I’d never make solar a mandatory home installation….what happened to freedom? Its all Americans’ right to drive gas cars and reduce Lithium toxic manufacturing of batteries. Let the electric car companies fizzle in their pools of battery toxins…

    How about just depopulate slowly?

  230. 980

    RE: wreckingbull @ 966
    Two Tired Salaries Destroyed the Boeing Pensions and Halved the Pay Too for New Workers

    The employment headcount at Boeing is meaningless when new beginning pay for a machinist is $15/hr and the engineer’s pension is gone. Senior workers were replaced with inexperienced lower wages….of course they were….the Boeing Company eliminated Safety Engineering which relies on decades of experience….its called outsourcing the American intellectual property drawings to Japan [China too?].

  231. 981

    RE: Millenial Engineer @ 977

    There used to be a Weekly Open Thread where “off topic” (to the post) comments and discussions were placed. Sometimes off topic comments and discussions were moved there if made erroneously on a post and “off topic”.

    The Weekly thread was dropped at some point, possibly to enhance the number of comments per post? Perhaps there is an advantage to the owner of the site by achieving more/most comments to each post as to value of the site if sold?

    I’m thinking The Tim is a smart dude and there may be some advantage to him. Could be wrong, of course. But I like to think people have a very good reason for what they do, most of the time.

  232. 982
    Millennial Engineer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 980

    I should clarify I’m not knocking on The Tim. I rather appreciate that he primarily stick to posting blogs and limits his moderation of the comments. Tim has already created a forum area, it’d be great if people would use it for a variety of reasons:

    -It’s easier to ignore bickering on topics non-related to housing
    -Debates can logically be followed in chronology
    -Topics with useful information can be easily referenced in the future or by people that have newly discovered SB.

  233. 983
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 971:

    RE: pfft @ 970 – I’d rather talk about the future of a local employer, which directly affects Seattle real estate, than your tired old DNC/Soros talking points. Thanks.

    we were talking about the local employer- that is when the righties on here could bash the left-leaning local politicians. when Trump did something far more harmful to the company nobody has said a word. I get it. We only allow RNC/Koch Bros talking points here! Again, I get it! I get it! Left wingers and supposed to just shut up and know their place while right wingers bless us with their knowledge of politics and economics. Nobody had a problem when right-wingers we’re bashing Obama for 8 years.

  234. 984

    RE: pfft @ 982

    I don’t think that’s true. We just appreciate a local real estate context drawn when and where possible. Yes, macro does become local…or not. But you tend toward only politics often vs real estate primarily. Or at least that’s the perception.

    I don’t believe in bashing people and a main “rule” of blogging is that you never attack a person, but rather the concept or idea. That doesn’t change when it is a politician and many don’t color within the lines. But if you can’t connect what you are saying as to politics with a direct connection to how it will impact REAL ESTATE PRICES locally, then you are crossing a line.

    I brought up the Head Tax because of the implications it may or may not have on future real estate prices. You seem to ignore the real estate aspect…which is not appropriate on a real estate blog IMO. Unless you are saying it is OK for home owners to trade 50% of their home appreciation for an unknown benefit to some homeless people. In the context of real estate prices, you are not drawing a direct correlation as to what you would expect to happen to the not homeless if Amazon took their ball and went home.

  235. 985
    Brian says:

    By Millenial Engineer @ 977:

    Tim, could you consider putting a forum on the website? It’d be great if there were a place to discuss the Head Tax offline so we can all get back to Case-Shiller HPI. Oh, wait….

    On the topic of Case-Shiller HPI. When I moved here 3 years ago, Seattle HPI was about 175 and 238. Seattle Median Home price was around $550k with 4% rates, now we are $820 and 5% rates. Employers looking to provide middle-income jobs in DT Seattle, such as those where myself and my peers work, are going to experience labor issues very soon as people move out of the area or into better-paying industries, namely tech. In fact, I think some employers are already feeling the pinch judging by the job postings I’ve been tracking.

    What are you seeing in the job postings ? More of them? Higher salary ranges? Or what?

  236. 986
    David says:

    Hobo Convention: I knew a Superior Court Judge who was a big ‘hobo’ fan and would dress up as a hobo and then go out hopping trains. He studied their history and could tell you all about hobos. Every chance he had, he would head out for the open rails of freedom.

    He went to hobo conventions. He REALLY liked being a hobo.

    Homelessness is a choice for many people.

    https://www.britthobodays.com/

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=96176&page=1

    The Judge headed home after being a hobo

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 983:

    RE: pfft @ 982

    I don’t think that’s true. We just appreciate a local real estate context drawn when and where possible. Yes, macro does become local…or not. But you tend toward only politics often vs real estate primarily. Or at least that’s the perception.

    I don’t believe in bashing people and a main “rule” of blogging is that you never attack a person, but rather the concept or idea. That doesn’t change when it is a politician and many don’t color within the lines. But if you can’t connect what you are saying as to politics with a direct connection to how it will impact REAL ESTATE PRICES locally, then you are crossing a line.

    I brought up the Head Tax because of the implications it may or may not have on future real estate prices. You seem to ignore the real estate aspect…which is not appropriate on a real estate blog IMO. Unless you are saying it is OK for home owners to trade 50% of their home appreciation for an unknown benefit to some homeless people. In the context of real estate prices, you are not drawing a direct correlation as to what you would expect to happen to the not homeless if Amazon took their ball and went home.

  237. 987
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Brian @ 984 – Unemployment rate was higher back then too. There’s more competition now for qualified employees.

    The annual increase total compensation costs was 7.2 percent in Seattle over the past 12 month period from March 2017 to March 2018. That’s significantly higher than any other city over this time period.

    https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/employmentcostindex_seattle.htm

  238. 988
    ronp says:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 822 – A significant amount is spent on housing assistance in King County and Seattle — https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/homeless/how-much-do-seattle-and-king-county-spend-on-homelessness/ , unfortunately it is not enough given the lack of wage growth in this country for lower income people. We need more income redistribution via more progressive taxation and Vienna style housing policy. Health insurance for all (mentally ill and chemically dependent especially) Interesting article here — https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/559130/ (not really housing specific).

  239. 989
    David says:

    We might need income broadening – but not to drug addicts. Certainly not in a State that freely decided to make access to drugs easy.

    Drug addicts deserve to be homeless because they freely put themselves into that situation. Don’t reward it or you get more of it.

    And if they die? Well, they chose their fate. We all are heading for the grave – some drinking coffee and a long life. Losers sooner taking their drugs.

    By ronp @ 987:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 822 – A significant amount is spent on housing assistance in King County and Seattle — https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/homeless/how-much-do-seattle-and-king-county-spend-on-homelessness/ , unfortunately it is not enough given the lack of wage growth in this country for lower income people. We need more income redistribution via more progressive taxation and Vienna style housing policy. Health insurance for all (mentally ill and chemically dependent especially) Interesting article here — https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/559130/ (not really housing specific).

  240. 990
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: David @ 989 – Without a “carrot and stick” approach, Seattle is doomed. As I mentioned before, homeless will continue to migrate here faster than housing and programs can be built, regardless of funding. Although it is difficult for apologists like pfft to understand, the lax attitude toward crime is actually an enabling, cruel aspect of the current system.

  241. 991
    Bubble Trouble says:

    Seattle is building something for $12M a mile. Any guesses? Subway? Highway? Streetcar? Nope. Bike lanes. Socialism….what can’t it do?

    https://preview.tinyurl.com/ybj8o8xt

  242. 992

    By ronp @ 988:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 822 – unfortunately it is not enough given the lack of wage growth in this country for lower income people. We need more income redistribution via more progressive taxation and Vienna style housing policy.

    I’ll give you the healthcare overall point that I did not quote, but you need to look at the underlying causes of lack of income growth before you start redistributing income. The poor do not pay a lot of taxes unless you look at studies which incorrectly attribute them paying taxes they don’t pay. In Washington, for example, all they really pay is Social Security, sales tax on a tiny proportion of their spending, and maybe under $100 a year on car tabs (because their car won’t be new or expensive).

    What is needed is moving the supply/demand curves for labor to a point where they intersect at a higher price point. Artificial means like huge increases in the minimum wage and head taxes are merely artificially moving the price point up, which in effect moves the demand for labor down, meaning poor people will be offered fewer jobs. That’s the exact opposite of the more jobs that is needed, and results in things getting worse, not better.

  243. 993

    By wreckingbull @ 990:

    RE: David @ 989 – Without a “carrot and stick” approach, Seattle is doomed. As I mentioned before, homeless will continue to migrate here faster than housing and programs can be built, regardless of funding. Although it is difficult for apologists like pfft to understand, the lax attitude toward crime is actually an enabling, cruel aspect of the current system.

    It is cruel for another reason, which I’ve mentioned before, but maybe not here. Seattle policies make the homeless feel virtually invisible (even though they are very visible). They can practically setup camp wherever they want (except perhaps in a bike lane) and the police won’t stop them. And I would guess that a large percentage of the population also ignore them as they walk by. Can you imagine being so down and out that you’re not only living on the streets but also being treated as if you don’t even exist? That has to be terribly demoralizing and depressing.

  244. 994

    By wreckingbull @ 972:

    I’d rather talk about the future of a local employer, which directly affects Seattle real estate. . ..

    It does seem like these local issues that indirectly (or arguably directly) affect real estate prices are far more popular here than “real” (for want of a better term) real estate issues, such as inspections, earnest money, NAR, interest rates, agency, etc.

  245. 995
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 993 – Exactly. The first thing to give them is dignity. All else can be built on top of that.

  246. 996

    RE: Erik @ 890
    Good Morning Erik

    Enjoyed reading you and Kary’s blogs this morning.

    Caught this on the news today if you are a Seattle Area Landlord [W. Seattle is in State of Washington for potential AG prosecution(s)] with potential eviction planned for an illegal tenant(s) destroying unit….just live with the HORRIFYING losses past and future and keep your mouth zipped?

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/e6b12e19-4868-3cb3-bcb6-c6802936b195/ss_smug-seattle-to-mom-and-pop.html

    And we elected these useless bums? LOL

  247. 997

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 991
    Kent City Hall Tore Them Down for the Winter Rains

    But the fake water shortage signs are now toren down….this city hall has absolutely no decent parking available for business and city employees….we’re suppose to be riding bikes and sitting on buses for hours instead, which none of the hypocrites or the rest of us do….we all basically drive gasoline powered cars. I witness this every week at my Toastmasters meeting. BTW, I spoke on the science behind Crop Circle creation with EMF….they loved my speech :-)

    The bike lanes are hardly used, they’re too inconvenient….let’s face it. The minority open border party lives in a ‘Fascist Universe” they try to force on the majority of legal voters.

  248. 998

    RE: softwarengineer @ 996 – I’ve talked about that in the past. My issue isn’t so much the idea as the methods.

    Rather than give landlords any advance notice or guidance, the AG just did undercover operations and then went after a couple of landlords for huge fines. And even at that point it still wasn’t clear what was allowed and what wasn’t, just that you couldn’t exclude all criminals for any crime no matter how petty or how long ago it occurred.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzr_pc17JvQ

    Note at the time this video was done WR was even expressly saying it was risky to even screen sex offenders. I think there’s been some guidance on that since, but I’m not sure it came from the AG, so even that might be perfectly safe.

  249. 999
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 996 – If someone really wants to invest in real estate, I can’t imagine why they would pick being a Seattle condo landlord over an low-cost REIT. Let’s look at what you must overcome

    – Stupid legislation that takes away your ability run your operation and protect your investment
    – Negative cash flow
    – The incoming glut of apartments, which as been well-documented
    – HOA dues rising much faster than inflation
    – Taxes rising much faster than inflation
    – If appreciation is realized, nearly a 10% transaction cost

    There is a reason our resident condo magnate hopes for appreciation instead of realizes cash flow.

  250. 1000
    N says:

    SF market BUT are we going to see the same thing at say $550k, where those that can afford that are not willing to squeeze into a tiny and not very nice place??

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/20/the-graphic-details-of-the-crazy-housing-bubble-in-san-francisco-according-to-zillow/

    This list and all the lists Zillow sends me on a daily basis show in graphic detail just how far the San Francisco housing market has gone off the rails. There are plenty of homes to buy, but the prices are just ludicrous, for what you get. There are only a limited number of people who are wealthy enough to afford a $1 million home but at the same time are willing to squeeze into a tiny and not so nice place. At some point, this doesn’t make sense anymore. And the price cuts show that the market might have reached that point.

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