Case-Shiller: Seattle home prices rising fastest in the nation

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to February data that was released this morning, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.7 percent January to February
Up 12.7 percent year-over-year.
Up 23.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 1.8 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.1 percent.

Seattle leads the nation in both year-over-year and month-over-month home price growth. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier are Las Vegas at 11.6 percent and San Francisco at 10.1 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes fell off steeply late last year but jumped back to #1 in February.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth is still the highest in the nation. The streak has been alive for eighteen months.

Ten metro areas hit new all-time highs in February: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle. February marks the first time that Los Angeles and San Diego have passed their 2005/2006 high points.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through February.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 127 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 23.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Here’s the story on this month’s numbers from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home price growth from current boom has surpassed last decade’s bubble

Check back tomorrow for our look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-04-24)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,421 comments:

  1. 1001

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 892
    Good Morning Suburban Mom

    I spotted this today in the news and remember this MSM article was written for like $200k avg American mortgage principle loans, not our $500-700K….HORRIFYING.

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/m/3d158ad4-becb-36d4-bc24-983b98632304/here%E2%80%99s-why-many-middle-class.html

  2. 1002
    First Time Buyer says:

    I see the market to be extremely hot and cray. Housing prices for SFH have jumped 100 to 150K compared to prices in Summer 2017 when I compare similar houses. With mortgage interest increases, increases in income tax exemption which nullifies that the benefit of income tax benefit, increases in property tax, stagnation in rent increase I don’t understand why this market is so crazy. Is it because of speculation that Seattle will be next SFO? Or because there is too much cash with the people from stocks?

  3. 1003
    uwp says:

    By wreckingbull @ 999:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 996 – If someone really wants to invest in real estate, I can’t imagine why they would pick being a Seattle condo landlord over an low-cost REIT.

    It’s a lot easier for a normal person to leverage a real estate purchase 4:1 than a REIT.

    EDIT: First SB post to surpass 1,000 comments?

  4. 1004
    ronp says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 992https://twitter.com/B_Ehrenreich/status/998571038727458816

    Higher wages for the poor, low cost health care and low cost housing are key. You can get there with higher taxes on the wealthiest in this country. You can still have a vibrant market based economy with higher taxes too. Other advanced countries do it pretty well.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/12/vienna-housing-policy-uk-rent-controls

  5. 1005
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 996 – This is easy to get around. You hike the rent WAY WAY WAY up and then negotiate with whomever you’d actually like to lease to.

  6. 1006
    BacktoBasics says:

    House inventory is too low. Net population growth. Mortgage rate is still low compare to history (4.5 vs 7%). Wage growth (min wage, IT wage). Compare to SF and Vancouver, Seattle is only 1/2. Price increase will slow to single digit but no crash in sight.

  7. 1007

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1002

    If you give me a neighborhood name or a few zip codes where you are looking I can tell you how much cash was used in terms of both cash purchase and higher than 25% down payment.

  8. 1008
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1007
    I am specifically looking in 98052, 98053 and 98074

  9. 1009
    sfrz says:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1002 – Another great site to review Central Bank’s everything bubble. http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html You will see that Seattle isn’t the only city with this hot and crazy bubble. This is a system-wide, Fed driven, central bank issue. Not a Seattle issue. This next crash will be painful.

    Another one to watch: Jesse Columbo (twitter account)
    Jesse Colombo @TheBubbleBubble
    4h4 hours ago

    Without this Fed-fueled household wealth bubble, far fewer people could afford luxury cars like Teslas. This factor is missing from nearly ALL analyses of Tesla’s business. When this wealth bubble implodes, say “bye-bye” to Tesla. $TSLA

    U.S. household wealth is in a bubble thanks to Fed-inflated asset prices…reversion to mean is coming and it’s not going to be pretty! https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consolidating-the-breakout-05-18-18/ … $SPX $DIA

  10. 1010

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1008

    My comment posted twice for some reason, so I’m deleting the text on this one.

  11. 1011

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1008

    Just finished 98052. At one point and quite some time ago “$100k over asking” became the new normal, meaning most home buyers looked at homes $100k under their price point to leave room for a $100k bid up. What I am seeing is mostly just more of the same. The large majority are just regular home buyers with 20% to 30% down bidding that much to “win” in multiple offers. Only 2 obvious cash investors. 2 other possible cash investors. None of the others are cash and only a few are more than 20% to 30% down with a fair amount at 20% down.

    I ran 30-90 days first and then did 0-29 days. I did this as sometimes earlier in the year bids up more than 2nd quarter due to old comps from last summer. But no. $100k or more over asking still fairly common into 2nd quarter. Of the ones I could see only one cash and one significant cash, but since the recorded mortgage comes from a less up to date system, I couldn’t see the more recent ones as well as the ones from 30 to 90 days ago.

    Basically just more of the same hot market and not looking much different from the last 2 to 3 years. More buyers than sellers. Same old; same old.

  12. 1012
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1011
    Thanks ARDELL for compiling this data. Salary has not hiked so much in the last few months. And there is negative cash flow with every house on market excluding the maintenance cost. I don’t understand why it still makes it more attractive.

  13. 1013

    By wreckingbull @ 999:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 996 – If someone really wants to invest in real estate, I can’t imagine why they would pick being a Seattle condo landlord over an low-cost REIT. Let’s look at what you must overcome

    I don’t have an issue with your negatives, but do REITs pass through the tax consequences of sales? I would assume they would, so you’d be a bit at the mercy of third parties in your tax life.

  14. 1014
    Erik says:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1012
    You want to live around a bunch of male nerds that write software code? I’d go somewhere fun and commute in if I were you. It’s not a trashy area like Everett, but if you are going to spend a bunch of money, at least live somewhere with nice scenery.

  15. 1015
    Matt P says:

    By Erik @ 1014:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1012
    You want to live around a bunch of male nerds that write software code? I’d go somewhere fun and commute in if I were you. It’s not a trashy area like Everett, but if you are going to spend a bunch of money, at least live somewhere with nice scenery.

    RE: Erik @ 1014 – And what do you consider “nice scenery”? 98052 includes the northwest quadrant of Lake Sammamish. What’s better scenery than that?

  16. 1016
    Matt P says:

    By First Time Buyer @ 1002:

    I see the market to be extremely hot and cray. Housing prices for SFH have jumped 100 to 150K compared to prices in Summer 2017 when I compare similar houses. With mortgage interest increases, increases in income tax exemption which nullifies that the benefit of income tax benefit, increases in property tax, stagnation in rent increase I don’t understand why this market is so crazy. Is it because of speculation that Seattle will be next SFO? Or because there is too much cash with the people from stocks?

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1002 – Low mortgage rates and too much liquidity in the market so there’s a lot of cash chasing little yield which makes people invest in real estate driving up the prices or let’s people get more house than they could before because of the lower rates.

  17. 1017
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: Erik @ 1014
    I myself a software nerd :) The ones I like are more than a million at least even with 7 to 10 miles of commute.

  18. 1018
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1016
    Interest rates were much lower last summer. Is it the fear or fact that interest rates will go up that is driving the prices?

  19. 1019
    Matt P says:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1018 – I think so. FOMO and sellers waiting for the top decreasing supply.

  20. 1020
    Erik says:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1017
    You are too far down the rabbit hole to save. Good day to you sir!

  21. 1021
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: Erik @ 1020
    Are you saying No to buy?

  22. 1022
    Erik says:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1021
    If you want my real opinion, I’d buy and sell in 2 years. Eastside is too bubbly. I bought a condo in Kirkland for $92k and sold it for $233k after 2 years. Redmond is even more bubbly. Redmond is a good place to buy after the market tanks. Last time it was probably the best place to buy at the bottom.

    I saw deerhawk say the same thing on here about investing on the east side. Redmond is too far from Seattle, the diverse job center, for a longterm hold in my opinion.

  23. 1023
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 1022 – How about Burien? Check out this craphole I was conned into viewing. This photographer should win a prize.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/12246-3rd-Ave-SW-98146/home/183328

  24. 1024

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1018

    No, because the prices have been fairly consistently following this pattern in the areas where you are looking (which happen to be in my service area, so I follow continuously) since before interest rates started to go up.

    Just checked my 98052 $100,000 bid up in Fall 2017 and rate was 3.875%
    My $100,000+ bid up from early 2017 in 98075 and rate was 3.625%
    My $150,000 bid up in 98033 last summer, not in anticipation of rising rates

    There were tons of $100,000 bid ups in North Seattle in 2016 which continue.

    All of the people I know who participated in the large bid ups just wanted a house to live in. Not fueled by fear of rising rates or rising prices. Just accepting that it was how the market functioned.

    The $100,000 bid up phenomenon started long before you started looking for a house, so no, I don’t think it’s about much more than more buyers than sellers AND that the market expectation tends to fall in that bid up range.

    The one area where I have seen an exception as to nice houses selling for slightly lower price and less of a bid up is Mead Elementary area in Sammamish. It has the same slight location issue as Kenmore except as to Lake Sammamish vs Lake Washington.

    Not a huge price break and they still get some $100,000 bid ups, but not quite as often. I saw a very nice large and not too old of a home sell there in the $850,000 range not too long ago. But more often The $850,000 or $875,000 homes in the areas you are looking tend to sell for a hair over or under a million. So if you can’t spend a million, you probably have to lower your cap price on your instant alert function.

    But you might have some luck in Mead.

  25. 1025
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1023
    I think burien prices are going up. It’s good both longterm and short term.

    As far as the house, I like it except it was built 1948. I try to buy 1978 or newer. If it has updated plumbing and electrical and roof and has no water intrusion, you could probably buy it and sell it in a couple years and make $100k.

  26. 1026
    Erik says:

    The bubble could take a very important step forward tomorrow.

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/05/21/dodd-frank-overhaul-heading-for-likely-passage-in-congress-how-it-affects-you.html

    Trump may roll back frank-Dodd like an onion. He wants to. What he wants he seems to get. If this happens Seattle real estate prices will see even more appreciation as the dumb money starts rolling in. We need credit expansion and time for another boom and bust. Less regulation on credit unions and freeze credit report. I like that.

  27. 1027
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1024
    All the self appointed “gurus” on here were making fun of people overbidding a few years ago. These dumb overbidders saved hundreds of thousands of dollars by participating while the gurus lost. I just remembered, Wreckingbull was one of the self appointed gurus.

  28. 1028
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 1026 – You think Burien is going up but Redmond is too far away?

    I was at McDonalds in Redmond last week and some lady in a walker ripped off not just one, but two massive air biscuits going out the door. I had to abandon the exit.

    I lost some enthusiasm for Redmond in that moment.

  29. 1029
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 1022:

    If you want my real opinion, I’d buy and sell in 2 years.

    RE roundtrip transaction costs approach 10%. And if you still expect a return on your investment, you better hope home prices are more than 20% higher in 2 years.

    So don’t do it!

  30. 1030
    redmondjp says:

    By David @ 1028:

    RE: Erik @ 1026 – You think Burien is going up but Redmond is too far away?

    I was at McDonalds in Redmond last week and some lady in a walker ripped off not just one, but two massive air biscuits going out the door. I had to abandon the exit.

    I lost some enthusiasm for Redmond in that moment.

    At least you don’t have to avoid the human poo right outside the door on the sidewalk, like I have several times last year while over in Seattle. It takes one’s mind a few moments to process what one is seeing, thinking “Is that what I think it is?” Hooray for progressive Seattle!

  31. 1031
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1029
    I’ve done this more than once and made over $100k in 2 years.

    Get a good buy, something that needs flooring, paint, countertops, appliances. Do what needs to be done. Then sell. Your profits will largely outweigh your expenses if you do it right. I buy at the auction though. The one I’m in now was purchased with about $150k built in equity. I just put on the finishing touches and hole in a couple years. I’m sure I’ll walk away with a good chunk of dough.

  32. 1032
    uwp says:

    First time I’ve heard “air biscuit.” Had to Google it.
    Who says you don’t learn anything on page five of a SeattleBubble post?

  33. 1033
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 1030
    I asked you once if you were a programmer and you said you were far from that and went in to tell me how colorful your life was. All your comments suggest you are a programmer from Redmond. So what do you do for work?

    Redmond is sterile and packed full of white male nerds also known a fun sponges.

  34. 1034
    David says:

    Sidewalk slams I’ve missed so far. But I have seen them in other towns too. I have no idea why anyone would want to live or work in Downtown Seattle.

    I was kidding about Redmond (the air biscuits were real though) . I’d much prefer to live in Redmond than have to walk out into Seattle every day.

    RE: redmondjp @ 1030

  35. 1035
    Bubble Trouble says:

    What’s not to love about downtown? Bums, no parking, loud and ultra expensive.

  36. 1036
    Bubble Trouble says:

    Second Erik. I’ve bought several properties that needed cosmetic fixes. Bad/weird paint and carpet turn buyers off like the plague. But it’s a quick and cheap fix. I’ll paint a 2000 sq ft house in a week after work and weekends, I’ve done it so many times. And carpet, there’s always something on sale for under $1 sq ft. A few thousand dollars gets new carpet and new paint and completely transforms a house. But so many people refuse to see the potential they just see that purple paint and click “next” when browsing homes.

  37. 1037
    Erik says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1036
    Yep. I like to fix condos because they are way easier to fix and condo people are lazy. They pay a premium for convenience.

    I hate painting. This last weekend, I volunteered to help my contractor for free in return I want to learn his process. We taped a 2000 sq ft home one day and sprayed the entire house maintenance white the next day. Maintenance white is only $35 for 5 gallons at lowes.

    In my remodels, I do the trim, doors, and ceiling white and everything else one color. I like clean lines, so it takes me a long time. Next time I’ll get a spray gun and do the walls, roll the ceiling, then see if I can spray the trim and doors.

  38. 1038
    Suburban Mom says:

    Just another delightful read just published from the Federal Reserve Bank.

    A Lost Generation? Long-Lasting Wealth Impacts of the Great Recession on Young Families

    “Families whose heads
    were born in the 1980s are different. They generally
    were too young to be homeowners during
    the housing bubble; in fact, only 19 percent of
    1980s families were homeowners in 2007. Even
    by 2016, fewer than 45 percent of 1980s families
    were homeowners. The predominant type of debt
    they owe is non-mortgage debt, including student
    loans, auto loans and credit card debt. Because
    none of these types of debt finance assets that have
    appreciated rapidly during the last few years—such
    as stocks and real estate—they have received no
    leveraged wealth boost like that enjoyed by older
    cohorts. The 1980s cohort was unique in falling
    even further behind its wealth benchmark between
    2010 and 2016. Given the prospect of lower asset
    returns in the future than in the recent past, 1980s
    families face a formidable challenge in building
    wealth rapidly enough to reach benchmark levels
    set by earlier generations”

    “This cohort has been the slowest to recover from the Great
    Recession. In fact, its wealth shortfalls (relative
    to the age-specific benchmark levels we predicted)
    were the only ones to worsen from 2010 to 2016.
    Historically, high asset returns in recent years have
    not prevented the 1980s cohort from falling further
    behind its wealth benchmark between 2010 and
    2016. And, with the exception of the 1970s cohort,
    this group may be on track to bear the heaviest debt
    burden ever.
    Income, saving and homeownership trends
    have been unexceptional for the 1980s cohort so
    far. Efforts to enhance the first two and a measured
    approach to the third—including careful management
    of mortgage debt—would serve this generation
    well. Cautious use of non-mortgage debt also
    will be important.

    It is far too soon to know whether families
    headed by someone born in the 1980s will become
    members of a lost generation for wealth accumulation.
    To be sure, there are grounds for optimism. Yet
    there are reasons to be very concerned about the
    financial outlook for many young Americans.”

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/household-financial-stability/the-demographics-of-wealth/wealth-impacts-of-great-recession-on-young-families?utm_source=hfslist

  39. 1039
    Bubble Trouble says:

    RE: Erik @ 1037

    For my own house I’m super anal about paint. For rentals….my attitude is good enough for govt work. One thing I learned is it’s faster to remove and reinstall molding than taping around molding. With a nail gun it’s no time at all to put back on. Ceiling cuts are always the time killer but I’ve gotten pretty efficient there as well. I actually like doing it, I’m always thinking of the money I’m saving by not hiring painters, since I’m one hell of a cheap SOB :)

  40. 1040
    Bubble Trouble says:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 1038

    For God’s sake enough of this millennials are special nonsense. Every generation goes through bubbles and busts. I was born in the 70s but you don’t see my whining incessantly that I missed out on the 80s boom. Nor do I whine about the .com crash of the early 2000s. Remember 9/11? Wasn’t a pretty time either. I was laid off post 9/11 and didn’t get back to earning what I was making pre-9/11 for about 3 years. Somehow I dealt with it and moved on with my life.

    But listening to a 28 year old today you’d think they’re the first group of Americans to experience an economic hardship. YOU AIN’T THAT SPECIAL CUPCAKES!

  41. 1041

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1039 – I just cut the trim in my hand, without tape. And old fart painter taught me that.

  42. 1042
  43. 1043
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1040

    This is a Federal Reserve report showing data that is demonstrating fact. Not me whining for the record. Did you take the time to read the report? They discuss the 70’s cohort.

  44. 1044
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 1033 – I love Redmond. Straight shot over to Seattle (if you HAVE to). Downtown Bellevue shopping. Microsoft low lying campuses with trails to run through. Lake Sammamish tickling your toes. Downtown Kirkland to grab a bite to eat. Trees, trails, Marymoor, calm evening walks. Redmond to downtown in 1/2 hour on the light rail in a couple of years. You’re right Eric. Stay away. The Eastside is TERRIBLE.

  45. 1045
    piggyshooz says:

    RE: uwp @ 1032 – of the 1000+ comments in this post, air biscuit and the alternative definition of “bezos” were definitely the highlights.

  46. 1046
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 1033

    He was telling the truth, as he always does. He’s even less nerdy than you. :)

  47. 1047
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 1025:

    RE: David @ 1023
    I think burien prices are going up. It’s good both longterm and short term.

    As far as the house, I like it except it was built 1948. I try to buy 1978 or newer. If it has updated plumbing and electrical and roof and has no water intrusion, you could probably buy it and sell it in a couple years and make $100k.

    aren’t older homes built better? anything that can go wrong has probably already gone wrong.

  48. 1048
    pfft says:

    By David @ 989:

    We might need income broadening – but not to drug addicts. Certainly not in a State that freely decided to make access to drugs easy.

    Drug addicts deserve to be homeless because they freely put themselves into that situation. Don’t reward it or you get more of it.

    And if they die? Well, they chose their fate. We all are heading for the grave – some drinking coffee and a long life. Losers sooner taking their drugs.

    By ronp @ 987:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 822 – A significant amount is spent on housing assistance in King County and Seattle — https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/homeless/how-much-do-seattle-and-king-county-spend-on-homelessness/ , unfortunately it is not enough given the lack of wage growth in this country for lower income people. We need more income redistribution via more progressive taxation and Vienna style housing policy. Health insurance for all (mentally ill and chemically dependent especially) Interesting article here — https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/559130/ (not really housing specific).

    nobody said ANYTHING about this comment? you need more heart there david. how about you start talking about people as if they are human beings for starters?

  49. 1049
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 990:

    RE: David @ 989 – Without a “carrot and stick” approach, Seattle is doomed. As I mentioned before, homeless will continue to migrate here faster than housing and programs can be built, regardless of funding. Although it is difficult for apologists like pfft to understand, the lax attitude toward crime is actually an enabling, cruel aspect of the current system.

    need sources bud.

  50. 1050
    David says:

    I worked in NYC during 9/11 and had just been double parked getting a hot dog from a street vendor at the Trade Center about 3 days before 9/11. It changed up everything in my life for sure.

    Though a side benefit was it put me off on a rabbit trail into real estate.

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1040:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 1038

    For God’s sake enough of this millennials are special nonsense. Every generation goes through bubbles and busts. I was born in the 70s but you don’t see my whining incessantly that I missed out on the 80s boom. Nor do I whine about the .com crash of the early 2000s. Remember 9/11? Wasn’t a pretty time either. I was laid off post 9/11 and didn’t get back to earning what I was making pre-9/11 for about 3 years. Somehow I dealt with it and moved on with my life.

    But listening to a 28 year old today you’d think they’re the first group of Americans to experience an economic hardship. YOU AIN’T THAT SPECIAL CUPCAKES!

  51. 1051
    David says:

    RE: pfft @ 1049 – As a reformed criminal defense attorney, I’ve helped more drug addicts than your small mind can get your head around. You don’t understand the way they are. I do.

    There are some who will reform – BUT I’ve also seen mothers with 4 (sometimes more) give up their kids in deprivation hearings to the State FOR DRUGS. They won’t quit and often are not really interested in trying.

    RULE #1 for drug addicts is: THEY ALWAYS LIE.
    RULE #2: See #1.
    RULE #3: They will try and keep the small babies until the babies are too old to get interest from worthy adopters.
    Rule #4: In re #3, Family members usually turn in the drug addict to the State. These family members are fed up and fully understand Rule #1.

  52. 1052
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1046
    Okay, I was just after him because he has “Redmond” in his screen name. I also think it’s funny to beat on other nerds. Perhaps i’m projecting how I feel about myself onto him? Eitherway, I laughed while I was creating the message, so it’s a win.

  53. 1053
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 1047
    Old houses have bad plumbing and bad electrical. To fix that, you gotta tear into walls. Roofs go bad over time as well.
    What your saying is true for mechanics, not houses. It’s called the bathtub curve. Goes from unreliable to reliable and back to unreliable at the end of its life.

  54. 1054

    By Erik @ 1053:

    RE: pfft @ 1047
    Old houses have bad plumbing and bad electrical. To fix that, you gotta tear into walls. Roofs go bad over time as well.
    What your saying is true for mechanics, not houses. It’s called the bathtub curve. Goes from unreliable to reliable and back to unreliable at the end of its life.

    But David had indicated he liked 1978 or newer. Such houses would likely have copper plumbing, until the time you get too new, at which point it can switch to PVC, Pex, etc., which may not last as long (some of it didn’t and the jury is still out on the rest). As to electrical, while the code is constantly changing, that is largely to sell new code books! /sarc About the only significant change to the code that comes to mind would be slightly improved insulation on wires to resist heat and maybe additional GFCI/Arc-fault protection, some of which can be retrofitted without difficulty. What’s interesting about electricity is we’re getting to the point where we’re putting less demand on circuits do to more efficient products (e.g. refrigerators, lights, TVs, computers, etc.).

    Then there’s my favorite topic, siding, where it was wood, went to more questionable wood product stuff (LP), especially the early wood product, and now may be improving with the cement plank stuff, but it’s still not clear that’s better than properly maintained wood. And that doesn’t even cover the poor installation of a lot of modern siding. There are a lot of newer houses out there with siding issues of some type.

    Edit: Prior to wood there was asbestos siding–that stuff was practically bulletproof! It might crack due to impact, but seemingly complete neglect wouldn’t damage it at all. Of course there are the health concerns, but I’m not sure it really posed much risk compared to some other uses of asbestos (e.g. hair dryers, pipe insulation), absent construction activity, and some newer materials used in house construction pose their own health risk.

  55. 1055
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1041:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1039 – I just cut the trim in my hand, without tape. And old fart painter taught me that.

    BOLD!! Yeah my hand isn’t steady enough to do that. I’d spend more time on touchups than I’d save probably.

  56. 1056
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Suburban Mom @ 1043:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1040

    This is a Federal Reserve report showing data that is demonstrating fact. Not me whining for the record. Did you take the time to read the report? They discuss the 70’s cohort.

    Every day there’s some report from some agency or other group saying how special and different millenials are. My point is they’re not special. Every generation has ups and downs. Talk to anyone who graduated college from 1990 to 1993 (ie born in the 70s) and ask them about how hard it was to get a job after graduation. I’ll spare you the suspense….it was next to impossible. That was the era of the corporate downsize. So not only were they competing with their peers but with millions of people who had been laid off as well. But then the late 90s boom came. Followed by the .bomb / 9/11 followed by the 2000s boom, followed by the 2008/9 bust. Do you see a pattern? But for some reason the special snowflakes born in the 80s have the sadz that life isn’t perfect.

  57. 1057

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1056:

    But for some reason the special snowflakes born in the 80s have the sadz that life isn’t perfect.

    The proper term is emotional hemophiliacs.

    http://www.pbs.org/video/bill-maher-emotional-hemophiliacs-s6afwl/

  58. 1058

    RE: Erik @ 1014
    LOL Erik

    My 28 YO daughter is now a happy party animal in Kansas City, she was almost friendless in Seattle….her Kansas hoard of happy friends are all young and fun loving….enjoying $600/mo rents and low property taxes [they went down for 2018 BTW]. She’s a normal housewife now and her husband works….70% of the Milenial Women just want to be a non-working housewives….Hades, that’s a full-time job too [I do it for myself and it should pay like $50-100K per year]….she’s my unpaid property manager living rent free too.

    She has an Associates degree but no 4 year college loan…she’s debt free and her home went $50K up in value to boot too :-)

    She’s living better than two college degreed professionals households in Seattle. BTW….working women die FAR sooner from heart disease ask the American Heart Association…she’ll live longer too.

  59. 1059
    kenmorem says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1024:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1018

    The one area where I have seen an exception as to nice houses selling for slightly lower price and less of a bid up is Mead Elementary area in Sammamish. It has the same slight location issue as Kenmore except as to Lake Sammamish vs Lake Washington.

    what location issue does kenmore have?

  60. 1060

    Seattle Area Amazon Job Provider

    Wants a new open border party NWO policy….we replace Seattle police law enforcement with computer manipulated/corrupted organized crime high technology identity theft systems….LOL

    https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/aclu-amazon-sell-face-recognition-tech-police-55351083

  61. 1061
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: Erik @ 1025
    Is there any significance behind the number 1978? Pop-corn ceilings?

  62. 1062
    Minnie says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1055

    I also learned from an old fart painter, and he never uses tape, so now I don’t either. Tape can still be messy and the worst part is you don’t see the bleeding until you peel up the tape and its dry.

    There’s a learning curve but once you stop using tape it gets easier!

  63. 1063
    Minnie says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1054

    I feel like the ’70’s were a time when home builders were really experimenting with strange (and unsafe) building materials…ie; aluminum wiring, IPE siding and IFIS. Maybe not so much asbestos.

    Lots of homes weren’t putting in hardwoods, in 1960’s pre, carpet was a trend for sure but most homeowners were still laying hardwoods underneath those carpets. Ripping up that shag to find plywood subfloor would be disappointing!

    Pretty sure some homes of that era were using orangeberg pipe material too….(it’s like paper mache)

    This is just what I’ve noticed however. I’m interested in knowing others experiences with old homes! This is fun!

  64. 1064
    Dustin says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1059 – I’m wondering the same thing. Maybe that both areas are relatively far from the major freeways in their areas?

  65. 1065
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Dustin @ 1064

    On my way to an appointment. Will explain in a couple of hours.

  66. 1066

    RE: Minnie @ 1063 – I think I’ve only come across one house with aluminum wiring locally. It just didn’t seem to be very popular around here.

    I’ve seen brass (or maybe copper, but I think it was brass) sewer lines! Probably 60s’ homes–I don’t remember for sure.

  67. 1067
    N says:

    @ First Time Buyer 1061 – As a landlord you have to provide lead paint disclosure to any units you rent built prior to 1978. I am not so sure that is what Eric was referring but it’s a thing before 1978.

  68. 1068

    By N @ 1067:

    @ First Time Buyer 1061 – As a landlord you have to provide lead paint disclosure to any units you rent built prior to 1978. I am not so sure that is what Eric was referring but it’s a thing before 1978.

    Something landlords who don’t use property managers need to know. I’ve never heard of HUD enforcing the $10,000 fines, but they could and probably would if a landlord is turned in by a tenant.

  69. 1069
    kenmorem says:

    yes, lead paint ban was 1978.

    also, building code changed in the late seventies to have more focus on seismic design. my 1979 house didn’t design to seismic code, but at least it had a few anchor bolts. i did a seismic retrofit of the daylight basement and garage (self-perform), so now it should be much better off in the next big one.

  70. 1070
    pfft says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1056:

    By Suburban Mom @ 1043:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1040

    This is a Federal Reserve report showing data that is demonstrating fact. Not me whining for the record. Did you take the time to read the report? They discuss the 70’s cohort.

    Every day there’s some report from some agency or other group saying how special and different millenials are. My point is they’re not special. Every generation has ups and downs. Talk to anyone who graduated college from 1990 to 1993 (ie born in the 70s) and ask them about how hard it was to get a job after graduation. I’ll spare you the suspense….it was next to impossible. That was the era of the corporate downsize. So not only were they competing with their peers but with millions of people who had been laid off as well. But then the late 90s boom came. Followed by the .bomb / 9/11 followed by the 2000s boom, followed by the 2008/9 bust. Do you see a pattern? But for some reason the special snowflakes born in the 80s have the sadz that life isn’t perfect.

    all you guys do all day is complain about high home prices, drug addicts, the homeless, the SEA city council and me. although I would complain too if I were conservative and pfft was proving me wrong all day long.

    most milennials I know put you guys to shame! nobody whines and complains more than the big orange baby in the white house and he is in his 70s.

    btw you’re off topic. this is a SEA RE blog.

  71. 1071
    pfft says:

    Do you guys every watch those flipper shows where they buy a house from the 70s and it’s a full gut? is that normal for such a young house?

  72. 1072
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By pfft @ 1070:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1056:

    By Suburban Mom @ 1043:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1040

    This is a Federal Reserve report showing data that is demonstrating fact. Not me whining for the record. Did you take the time to read the report? They discuss the 70’s cohort.

    Every day there’s some report from some agency or other group saying how special and different millenials are. My point is they’re not special. Every generation has ups and downs. Talk to anyone who graduated college from 1990 to 1993 (ie born in the 70s) and ask them about how hard it was to get a job after graduation. I’ll spare you the suspense….it was next to impossible. That was the era of the corporate downsize. So not only were they competing with their peers but with millions of people who had been laid off as well. But then the late 90s boom came. Followed by the .bomb / 9/11 followed by the 2000s boom, followed by the 2008/9 bust. Do you see a pattern? But for some reason the special snowflakes born in the 80s have the sadz that life isn’t perfect.

    all you guys do all day is complain about high home prices, drug addicts, the homeless, the SEA city council and me. although I would complain too if I were conservative and pfft was proving me wrong all day long.

    most milennials I know put you guys to shame! nobody whines and complains more than the big orange baby in the white house and he is in his 70s.

    btw you’re off topic. this is a SEA RE blog.

    You’re off topic, says the guy who bring Trump into every discussion. Very millenial of you.

  73. 1073

    RE: pfft @ 1071 – I don’t watch house porn, but they probably start with houses that have been poorly maintained because they can pick those up cheaper and it also makes for more dramatic before/after pictures.

  74. 1074
    redmondjp says:

    By Erik @ 1033:

    RE: redmondjp @ 1030
    I asked you once if you were a programmer and you said you were far from that and went in to tell me how colorful your life was. All your comments suggest you are a programmer from Redmond. So what do you do for work?

    Redmond is sterile and packed full of white male nerds also known a fun sponges.

    I live amongst the programmers, but alas, am not one of them. I spent most of my career as a design/process/support engineer at several manufacturing companies, with some time also as a government contractor at the big nooklear reservation, and now work to keep the lights on in our airport control towers and related facilities.

    Financially, I wish I would have stayed in school two more years and got my computer science degree after getting the EE degree (but I was so done with school at that point). I would be retired right now, and out tending my vegetable garden. There is nothing better than home-grown tomatoes, and last year we had enough marionberries to make more than two fresh pies.

    I do all of my own home and auto repairs, and even mow my own lawn (as well as two neighbor’s large yards). Come on over to the sterile Eastside for a visit, although I would have to strongly disagree with you as to the predominant racial makeup of the area, which has changed significantly in the past 23 years since I moved here. Have you been to the Redmond or Kirkland Costco lately? That should clue you in.

  75. 1075
    redmondjp says:

    By First Time Buyer @ 1061:

    RE: Erik @ 1025
    Is there any significance behind the number 1978? Pop-corn ceilings?

    Lead-based paint was not being used at this point for new construction, and yes, you also hit on the asbestos in the popcorn ceiling, which was phased out by this point as well (in general, but still requires testing as contractors may have had old stock on hand).

    My house was built in 1977 as were the other five in my cul-de-sac. I didn’t test my popcorn ceiling for asbestos when buying but the neighbor did and it came back negative, which is good enough for me.

    But I would try to buy either older (1960s, hardwood floors and better-quality timbers) which has been properly updated, or 1980s or later (thicker walls, better insulation, double-pane windows, better foundation drainage systems, etc. etc.). If I had the financial means to do it, I’d scrape my house and start over (mine has 2×4 exterior walls, single-pane aluminum windows, no foundation drainage, poor insulation, chintzy electrical system with no main breaker, no sheathing underneath my siding, and it badly needs an earthquake retrofit – but it’s home to me :).

  76. 1076

    RE: N @ 1067RE: pfft @ 1071

    Yes. Especially common with Split-Entry homes here as they pull out the walls that separate the kitchen from the dining area and the living room and turn it into an “Open Floor Plan”. Not necessarily a full gut everywhere, but pretty close. They also add skylights given the bedrooms are on “the main” and not above the main living spaces. The space where the walls used to be usually becomes an island.

    RE: pfft @ 1071

    Incorporating the above into this response, same issue. Often the place is entirely gutted to remove both the lead based paint and the “popcorn” ceilings that contain various levels of asbestos.

    In the 60’s split-entries you often run into asbestos floor tile and asbestos drop ceilings on the lower level.

    So full gut of a split entry as a flip project is seen often and generally very lucrative if done well. I just saw one bought recently for $300,000 come back as $100,000,000 asking. Not sure where it will sell, but that’s probably the biggest spread I have seen. Double not uncommon. Let’s see where triple goes… :)

  77. 1077

    RE: Dustin @ 1064

    Both Kenmore and “Mead” are at the meeting point of two buyer groups that are coming from different directions. There are many such points inside the broader market. Think of each Real Estate Market sub-group as a dart board with everyone wanting to live in the bulls eye, but moving back from it as their budget dictates.

    For Sammamish you have two groups. One that is generally commuting into Seattle and who move from Bellevue 98006 into Issaquah on the south side and up through Sammamish from the south into 98075.

    Then you have the other Sammamish group who are “Redmond-Sammamish” buyers who sometimes had their bulls eye in Bellevue, sometimes Kirkland 98033, but move into Redmond 98052 and then 98053 or Sammamish 98074.

    Hence comment 1008 where this discussion “started” as 98052,98053 and 98075. The other team in the blue jerseys come in saying 98006, 98029 and 98074.

    Sammamish on the East side splits in the middle at Mead Elementary. The 98075 team stops at or just before Mead in normal market conditions and all the way to the bubble is almost going to burst. Before the bubble bursting point they hit the Mead line and say “too far South”. The 98074 team does the same and says “too far North” when they hit the Mead line from the other direction.

    This is why you can often get a better deal and fewer $100,000 bid ups in Mead and why it’s a bubble indicator region. Some day if that line permanently falls in the middle of Mead, the price expansion will become permanent. Same thing happened in the last bubble at 85th in North Seattle. I think that line moved to the end of Shoreline now. :)

    Typically broad blathering recognizes Monroe and Sultan and Lake Stevens and even Cougar Mountain as “too far out” but willing to go there for a cheap new house. But the reality is that every mini-sub-market has it’s own “too far” lines that are fairly well known and observed by many enough to impact home prices.

    The Kenmore reference was one I thought was more obvious and why I said “Mead” acts like Kenmore. The Downtown Seattle crowd, now the SLU crowd comes up North through Shoreline and even before all the light rail talk, tended to go straight up vs turn at Kenmore. They would hit that side of Bothell before Kenmore. The blue team are coming from Redmond through Kirkland and those that venture out of 98033 and into 98034 sometimes keep going, which will take them either into Bothell on the “straight” run or around the lake into Kenmore from Kirkland.

    So Kenmore was skipped on the West for Bothell on that side and Kenmore was skipped on the East for Bothell on the Kirkland side. Less common now given Kirkland annexed most of that “old Bothell”, but still true for the houses in what is now “North Juanita Kirkland” vs “King County Bothell”.

    So Mead and Kenmore continue to have some safe haven areas BUT we are now seeing these being infiltrated by crazily priced new construction for those areas and the jury’s still out as to whether that means the lines will permanently move like Seattle’s old “not above 85th Street” or it means the bubble is about to burst. I tend toward the latter on an 18 month time horizon, so I wouldn’t be aiming at the $2Million house in Kenmore. But Mead and Kenmore have many much better choices at or below the median price of their bulls eye counterparts.

    So for First Time Buyer I said push a bit further South, but not too far, into Mead; the same as I might say to a South Sammamish buyer coming in from 98006 and Issaquah.

    Capish?

  78. 1078
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1075
    Especially in Redmond, more than 50% of the SFH are 1970s or older. Would you recommend buying them if I don’t have plans to sell in near future?

  79. 1079
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 1073
    Electrical engineers are closely related to programmers. They are the same breed.

    I use to live in Kirkland and I’m an engineer too. I’m just trolling I suppose. Like Ardell said, I’m probably a bigger nerd than you.

  80. 1080

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1077

    Actually they are the ones to target if you MAY have to sell in the near future as they are the easiest to upgrade cheaply to recoup the “cost of sale”. In fact most can be done even with the need to sell within 6 month to a year, unless you buy the flip projects vs the house the flippers would want.

    Age is just a number and a fully remodeled 1980 house may have less forward to move than an ugly 1979. :) When in doubt about the future…buy ugly. Because you can always put lipstick on a pig. But if you buy the pig with the lipstick on you will wake up to a pig with no lipstick on and no way to get to better than lipstick on.

  81. 1081
    Erik says:

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1061
    Trial and error. Everything I’ve purchased prior to 1978 ended up costing me more money which had less return on investment. People pay for beauty, not stuff in the wall you can’t see.
    Buy something 1978 or newer, needs paint, needs flooring, needs countertops, needs appliances. If you follow that criteria, your life will be easier and you’ll have more money. And I buy condos so I don’t have to worry about all the other repairs. Make the updates and hold on 2 years and sell. You’ll probably make $100k in 2 years if you buy right.

  82. 1082
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1079
    Totally agreed. Thanks for the inputs ARDELL and Erik. Just curious, After 1980, does the year built makes any difference with the quality of construction especially 1980 vs 1990 vs 2000 ones?

  83. 1083

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1075:

    Often the place is entirely gutted to remove both the lead based paint

    Which reminds me, there are EPA regulations about which contractors can remove over 6 square feet of material which might contain LBP.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/life/consumers-checkbook-iron-clad-rules-about-lead-removal/

  84. 1084
    S-Crow says:

    Erik, if we are not in a speculative bubble right now, please let the audience know what a bubble will look like when it comes to the Puget Sound region.

  85. 1085
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Erik @ 1078:

    RE: redmondjp @ 1073
    Electrical engineers are closely related to programmers. They are the same breed.

    I use to live in Kirkland and I’m an engineer too. I’m just trolling I suppose. Like Ardell said, I’m probably a bigger nerd than you.

    In college the biggest party people were engineers. My freshman year neighbor was an EE major and I couldn’t keep up with him or his fellow EE friends. Computer Science types….now those were the stereotypical nerds. Although not a techie myself I’ve worked with both engineers and programmers for years. And my experience in college still holds true. Engineers aren’t nerds like programmers. Not that there’s anything wrong with being a nerd (in my best Jerry Seinfeld voice)

  86. 1086

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1081

    Usually that goes by builder and you can get a clue by looking the address up on the King County Parcel Viewer to see if it is a grade 7, 8 or 9, but knowing a bit about the builder can tell you the difference between an 8- and an 8+, which comes up fairly often.

    The recession years of 90 to 96 or so is where I often find the weakest homes. LP siding issues. A roof that should have been replaced yesterday and on its last leg. Poor sub-floor materials with funny divots at the top of the stairs from piecing leftover scraps at the top of the landing. Some newer homes by lesser builders you can slide your hand inside of the side of each step between the wall and the stair material and the gap is covered by the carpet.

    As to split entries and one story with basements, the earlier ones often have no fireproofing between the garage ceiling and the rooms above as the code to do that hadn’t come to be yet. Not sure exactly where that cut off is but either 1970 or late 60’s I think.

    In your price range (I think based on past comments) 80’s homes in English Hill are possibly your best option. There are many neighborhoods of English Hill and some had better builders than others, but many are very good on the Northshore School Disrict side of English Hill. Sunset Elementary area as example.

  87. 1087

    RE: kenmorem @ 1069

    The lead based paint ban was in 1976. The National Disclosure requirement is prior to 1978 as they allowed two years from the ban for “shelf life” of paint since it was a ban and not a recall.

    Some people think asbestos was banned at the same time but asbestos wasn’t really ever banned like lead based paint was. It just being used less and less. So a 90’s popcorn ceiling can have asbestos while a 1975 house not. There is no magic year for asbestos and so popcorn and drop ceilings and vinyl tile has to be tested at the lab pretty much regardless of year.

    For asbestos in popcorn ceilings (also drop ceilings) you need to know the % and the lab will tell you. Sometimes you need to take samples from a few different places as the mixing of asbestos into the material may not have been uniform. You need a piece about the size of a quarter. For asbestos floor tile you need a 1″ square. Testing is cheap. About $75. Also pretty quick.

    Last I looked if the popcorn is 1% asbestos or less you can treat it as none as to removal and disposal and 2% or more (highest I have seen is 4%) then you have to use the State guidelines for removal and disposal.

    In Seattle and possibly some places out in the woodsy part of The Eastside you still run into asbestos shingle on the outside of homes.

    None of these asbestos issues are normally disclosed by the seller or in the home inspection for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is…this is still at times “The Wild, Wild West”. :)

  88. 1088

    By S-Crow @ 1083:

    Erik, if we are not in a speculative bubble right now, please let the audience know what a bubble will look like when it comes to the Puget Sound region.

    I’m not seeing that is speculative at all based on the people I deal with as clients and the people I talk to. People are not wanting to buy because they think the prices will continue to go up, they want to buy because they want a place to live that they own. Part of that pressure is people moving here and part of that pressure is simply people who put off the decision during the downturn. Note I’m not saying it isn’t a bubble, but just not a speculative bubble.

    As to that last point I am interested how the market will react when inventory balances out a bit better, meaning the median time on market stretches all the way out to a whole 14 days! The median sales price is now about $45,000 over the median list (King County SFR) due to bidding wars. If most buyers can buy a property during the first week without competition, the prices should moderate. How will the market react to that when The Seattle Times reports a decline in YOY stats? Will people be relieved or will they panic/overreact?

    The number 45,000 is brought to you from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  89. 1089
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1085
    Wow, these are very valuable information. I already work with a agent, if not you will be my agent :) . Is Grade 8 or above better?

  90. 1090
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 1083
    Inventory will be higher than 6000 in king county. Then software will pull back for a while. Some people will be laid offf. The building won’t stop because permits have been pulled and too much money will have been invested. Inventory could skyrocket to 13000 in king county like last time. Laid off employees will need to foreclose or take a major loss.
    The severity of the bubble will depend on credit expansion. If we start we deregulate rules to qualify for loans, the problem will only worsen like it did last time. Highs will be higher and lows will be lower.
    I like math. I took “pre calculus 2” and got an “A” both times. This makes total sense if you look at the asset bubble curve. My belief is that the reason people on here are screeming about this bubble blowing anytime is because they don’t understand sine waves or asset bubbles.
    I’m certain you will be screaming the sky is falling for atleast 4 more years like Doug did in 2014. The reason is probably because you need to brush up on your math.

  91. 1091

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1086:

    Some people think asbestos was banned at the same time but asbestos wasn’t really ever banned like lead based paint was. It just being used less and less. So a 90’s popcorn ceiling can have asbestos while a 1975 house not.

    I would agree there’s no magic date for asbestos, but where are you seeing 90s popcorn ceilings? I’m going to have to start thinking about that–what’s the latest date for a house with popcorn. As to how late it contained asbestos I’d be surprised if it was past 1979 when hair dryers were recalled. Companies don’t like to produce products where a recall is likely, so even without a ban I suspect it asbestos in popcorn stopped around then (if popcorn wasn’t already dying out as a thing).

  92. 1092
    Erik says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1084
    I didn’t party that much in undergrad. The classes were too difficult for me after finishing my electives. Plus I like to do well.

    For grad school, I would work 8 hours doing stress analysis. Then I’d go home and put in a second shift of analysis doing homework. Very difficult to stay motivated and I was depressed. I did get a great degree though. Much happier now that I’m done. My idea of partying in grad school was getting drunk and harassing people in Kirkland.

  93. 1093
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1082

    Deerhawke?? What say you? You’re the one doing the pre 78 tear-downs.

    I recently saw an agent publicly say that Federal Law REQUIRED that BUYERS of pre-78 homes REMOVE all lead based paint. I couldn’t talk him down on that. Someone show me that law.

  94. 1094

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1092 – I wasn’t saying the law requiring certified people do the work was widely followed. I’m just saying those rules were imposed.

    There are also rules requiring licensed electricians to run the wiring to AC/Heatpump units installed after construction. Based on what I see at inspections that is seldom the case.

    There is no law requiring LBP be removed. That would be crazy.

  95. 1095

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1090

    Popcorn ceilings are still a “thing” for old ceilings with cracks in them. Popcorn never goes away.

    You can even buy it on Amazon :)
    https://www.amazon.com/Homax-Group-8522-Popcorn-2-2-Liter/dp/B000BZX07O/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1527041422&sr=8-3&keywords=popcorn+ceiling+texture

  96. 1096

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1088

    The majority of homes fall into 7,8,9…and 10. 10 is kind of the new 9 as in orange is the new black. :)

    The highest I have seen is 13. Super high-end custom built by the best of builders. Let me check one now to see if they are still giving out that number…

    – Best spec builder still at 11. Very pricey, but not very custom.
    – Not best but good quality semi-custom still at 12

    I can’t find a 13. The few 13 builders I knew retired back after the last bubble crashed. At one time 5 out of 6 of the homes nearby were homes of the highest quality builders. Their own personal residences. I think they all retired to Lake Chelan. :) But I know there is a 13. Just not seeing anyone building at that level at the moment.

    Most newer homes are 10. Some 9. A few 11. Older homes that were somewhat built as 2nd homes near some of the rivers and lakes are sometimes as low as 6. I’ve never seen lower than 6. 7 is not uncommon. 7,8,9 and 10 likely covers almost all of the real estate, so knowing if it’s a low 8 or a high 8 becomes important. Not as important at 10. 7 is what it is. :) Often you find 7s in fabulous locations, so I don’t rule them out.

  97. 1097
    uwp says:

    Thanks for all the good info this evening Ardell.

  98. 1098

    RE: uwp @ 1096

    Thanks for the thanks. Sorry I’ve been too busy for awhile to add value. Most all of my people are in their houses or just waiting for closing at this point. I’m just finishing up staging a seller’s house but it’s in PA. Talking about all this asbestos and lead I was thinking, well at least you don’t have to deal with radon testing and remediation like PA and NJ. :)

  99. 1099
    kenmorem says:

    erik: what is precalculus 2???

  100. 1100
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1095
    Thanks Ardell. Does the Grade rating decrease as the house ages because I see some meth houses in 1960s having “8 Good”. Do you refer “8 Average” as “8 -“?

  101. 1101

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1099

    It shouldn’t change from the time it was built. I’m pretty sure the grade is assigned when it is built and does not change. There are other numbers that mean something different.

    It’s only one of many factors to consider and most of the time I can tell what the number is when I walk into the house without looking, so I don’t check them often. But as I said originally…it’s a “clue” and only one of many. But I thought it might be helpful to you in response to that specific question that you asked. But it’s not gospel. You know sometimes you get an A when you know you really deserved a B. LOL!

  102. 1102
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Erik @ 1089 – Thanks Erik. I’ll brush up on my math because it’s not my strong subject but my certifiable Mensa wife who degree’d in Math and Econ minor at Seattle Pacific U helps me out in that subject almost daily.

    Part 1 of 2:

    ‘Ah yes, Mathematics and Sine waves certainly paid dividends for you and others in your real estate endeavors. Those sellers Ardell meets with to get their homes in top condition for sale constantly quiz her about the market Sine waves.

    However, hopefully the point of people getting their knees skinned in real estate was the realization that the overall debt load played a central role in their financial problems — perhaps the light bulb may have come on? For some yes. For others it’s behavior as usual. There are throngs of people who didn’t walk away from their mtg’s just because their outstanding balances were higher than their dropping values at that time. Those were the people that had low overall debt loads. It sucked. But they are sitting on substantial equity.

  103. 1103
    S-Crow says:

    part 2 of 2:

    Maybe the commentary by someone with subtantial experience in residential real estate is meaningful (Renovations as well) : I’m not a passive participant in transactions that happen to close. We actually do it. I see it. I see the debt loads. I see a hell of a lot more than agents do on the financial side and far more than the general public who hear the incessant drum beat of friends and friends of friends and their cousins brother who are making it rich by flipping etc. I’ll never argue with the successes but people who are mature enough to filter out the BS all over this industry and listen to me will have one thing most precious to them: they will still have their principle.

    People need to know that there are people out there, TODAY, that are having to come to close with money on flips. People need to know that they can make money and also can have their rear ends handed to them. However, if people just think there is the yellow brick road after attending their most recent “flip” seminar downtown Seattle or Bellevue they need to know the other side. They also need to know people make just stupid rookie mistakes buying at auction. I mean just foolish costly buys.

    As you mentioned you’ll be the Pied Piper of Seattle Bubble for those who walk away and socialize the losses. Sadly, you might have a long line behind you if that’s how this plays out. Hopefully not. It took next to no time at all for our friends 140 miles north up in Vancouver to have the market crumble. Real estate is not liquid.

    If I can keep one person or better yet, a real estate agent or loan officer, from falling into the culture of excessive debt loads, then I will be happy. Culturally from a business perspective it is an uphill battle working in an industry that is deeply debt driven and glam driven.

    There’s a local Snohomish (town) real estate company with signage that says, “Snohomish is NOT Seattle.” Then stop pricing property as if they were in 98112!

  104. 1104
    pfft says:

    By David @ 1051:

    RE: pfft @ 1049 – As a reformed criminal defense attorney, I’ve helped more drug addicts than your small mind can get your head around. You don’t understand the way they are. I do.

    There are some who will reform – BUT I’ve also seen mothers with 4 (sometimes more) give up their kids in deprivation hearings to the State FOR DRUGS. They won’t quit and often are not really interested in trying.

    RULE #1 for drug addicts is: THEY ALWAYS LIE.
    RULE #2: See #1.
    RULE #3: They will try and keep the small babies until the babies are too old to get interest from worthy adopters.
    Rule #4: In re #3, Family members usually turn in the drug addict to the State. These family members are fed up and fully understand Rule #1.

    you don’t really seem to understand that drugs have such a hold on them they’d lie and do whatever they’d have to to get high including many of the things that you speak of. but I guess you alread knew that? you seem shocked about it though.

    ” As a reformed criminal defense attorney, I’ve helped more drug addicts than your small mind can get your head around.”

    HEY EVERYBODY, look at the big brain on Brad!

  105. 1105
    Brian says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 1102

    S-Crow, you’re my favorite here. I always be sure to read your posts.

    I just love how we have such a variety of people here. From real estate agents to escrow agents to Erik.

  106. 1106
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Brian @ 1104 – I’m glad some of my perspectives resonates once in a while.

    Here’s another about debt and getting rich:

    I zipped up my Dad three years ago. I literally put him in the bag myself. He’s buried next to my sister about a 100ft from Bruce Lee’s grave site at Lake View Cemetary next to Volunteer park. It was Cathartic. You know how much money he took with him? F’ing nothing except the ring his late very poor New Jersey Mother gave him as a gift for graduating from UW School of Architecture after discharge/leaving the Navy in WWII. Sorry for my language I’m a guy of Faith but with a Lou Piniella temper/mouth after a bad game or call. Although my Dad was a Jersey guy he came to Seattle because he played football in the Big-7 at the time as a Full Back (leather helmets and all) and played against UW at Husky Stadium in 1952 before the stands were even expanded to what they were prior to the recent additions. His right hand man and dear friend in the day was the late Harold Robinson, another New Jersey native, who happened to be the first black allowed to play in the Big-7 (Today Big-12) although he was never allowed to eat in certain team gatherings and travel was segregated. In fact my Dad said he was nearly killed one time after getting jumped because he hung out with Harold. It was quite the era. In fact this stuff never hit home with me until one day he totally jacked me up in our basement after returning home from Medgar Evers pool at Garfield High School one Friday night. It was because my friend got jumped after we left the pool and I didn’t know what to do and went back to find my Dad. He was so pissed at me. But, he loved the Northwest and came back to the UW for Architecture school. You know what people say they regret when they are ready to go? I needed more stuff and I needed more money and I wish I flipped more homes? Nope. Wish I spent more time with the friends and people in my inner circle and family/kids.

    I just met with a client who was deeply involved in prosecuting and going after mortgage fraud, foreclosure fraud and after Bank/Mortgage Backed Securties fraud during the crash. This person was quietly right here in my back yard, per se. The client flew all over the country training law enforcement at high levels of Gov’t (ironic in these times), special witness in cases, identification of doctored up documents recorded at County recording desks and so on. Left the work due to burn out and heavy toll/security issues. It was probably the most fascinating 30 min appt to date that turned into 2 hours in 15 yrs of escrow work as a biz. Meeting and having clients like this is the side benefit of being in this line of work.

  107. 1107
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 1102
    Are you pulling rank on me?

    I’m sure you’d be fun to party with. I bet if we had a big party and all sat around a campfire drinking and telling stories, you would be absolutely captivating to listen to. By the end of the night after others left, I’d keep listening to your stories about how the whole thing I a “house of cards.” You’d have me listening the entire time you talked about debt to income of borrowers. A lot of great stories I’m sure.

    The next day I would wake up and try to shake my hangover off. I’d take an alka seltzer and make some coffee. Around 6pm I’d visit Seattle bubble website and scroll to the bottom of the page and see courtesy of estately that inventory is 2200. Then I’d look at the sine wave representing the asset bubble curve. I’d put time on the x-axis and inventory on the y-axis. At the top, I’d sketch in 14000 to represent the number of homes for sale at the top. Then I’d plot 2200 homes for sale. I’d make a quick estimation where we are along in the cycle. “Let’s see here” i’d Say to myself “it looks like we are stil early into the expansion phase. Then to be safe, i would look at credit expansion. I’d say “looks like lenders are requiring good credit to get loans.”

    Then I’d jump back in bed shaking my head about what s-crow had us all believing the night before. I’d chalk it up to a fun time and continue to invest in Seattle real estate.

    I do agree with Brian, I like your comments. I’m sure you are a fun time. I just cannot agree with you at where we are at in the cycle. Chances are very good that we will still be in the expansion phase in 2022.

    If you get stuck on the graph part, ask your wife for help. Ask her to help you draw the asset bubble curve, label the x and y axis, and plot the point we are at now on the curve.

  108. 1108
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1058
    I’d be partying too if I got free rent. Do you have any free rent homes in Seattle for me?

  109. 1109
    Erik says:

    Congress passed changes to Dodd frank and trump will sign. Hurray!! This will set housing prices on a faster trajectory. We need to keep rolling this thing back until we can repeat the last scenario. Only this time I know what to do.

  110. 1110

    By S-Crow @ 1102:

    I’m not a passive participant in transactions that happen to close. We actually do it. I see it. I see the debt loads. I see a hell of a lot more than agents do on the financial side . . ..

    Okay, this struck me as odd. Are you saying there are agents who don’t see the closing statements? That never occurred to me, but it’s probably right. We typically attend signings and ask for the closing statements ahead of time so that we can review them. If we didn’t do either of those two things we wouldn’t know the numbers in advance, but we’d still at least get a copy of the final closing statement. I suppose some agents don’t review them, just as some agents don’t review title reports.

    Even ignoring the closing process though, we always know the loan amount in advance of making an offer, and often also a rough estimate of the payment amount. I could see listing agents might be a bit in the dark, but the buyer is not their client.

    People need to know that there are people out there, TODAY, that are having to come to close with money on flips. People need to know that they can make money and also can have their rear ends handed to them.

    Now this doesn’t surprise me at all! Some flippers are new and/or don’t know what they’re doing. I’ve had at least one situation where I was concerned about the flipper and the possibility that they wouldn’t have funds to close. Years ago I also saw a flip where the condition was much worse than anticipated (basically it needed not only a new roof but also new trusses), and the hard money lender ended up foreclosing. Flipping is not a guaranteed money maker, particularly in this market where good properties are hard to find and hard to pick up at a decent price.

  111. 1111
    uwp says:

    Does anyone watch the Altos Research graphs on the sidebar. They have Seattle prices dropping since mid-March. They do give a bit more info when you click through, and it seems to be concentrated on the upper end of the market: the markets are broken into 4 segments, and the 2 under-million-$ segments are rising, while the upper tiers are falling.

    Maybe a sign of the high-end hitting a wall? Or maybe just typical seasonal trends?

  112. 1112
    N says:

    @ S Crow 1102 – Great posts. I always enjoy your comments and find them very valuable.

  113. 1113
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1100
    Thanks ARDELL. I get your point. What is your take on lot size? I see really meth houses and tear downs selling even for a million near grass lawn /education hill. I believe buyers see value in the land. Is that truly worth the price? Say if I buy a small rambler with a big lot, would I be able to get permit to construct another house in the same lot in the future?

  114. 1114
    N says:

    Not much meat in this article but it’s interesting to note how most of Seattle has the opposite view of these economists — that Seattle will be among the most affected, whereas most locals seem to feel the opposite.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economists-say-homes-could-go-on-sale-in-2020-when-the-next-recession-hits-2018-05-22

    Previously, the panel predicted that any upcoming recession would have a moderate impact on the housing market, with real-estate values in cities such as San Francisco, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego and Seattle likely to be the most affected

  115. 1115
    N says:

    We always focus on SFH inventory for KC. Let’s take a look at KC Condos (Erik’s fav!).

    From Estately, all from the same friday in May

    5/20/16 – 600
    5/19/17 – 405
    5/18/18 – 591 45% Increase YOY. Flat against 2016.

    This is more than double what the YOY increase is for SFH (21%). It would be interesting to see absorption rates for condos.

  116. 1116

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1040
    LOL Bubble Trouble

    I just recently figured out what the Milenial [like my 28 YO daughter] women really want; I listened to them recently…and saw the recent national poll results too. 70% of Milenial women just want to be normal housewives with a working hubby….Good gosh….that’s sacrilege to PC open border party Seattle pundits….LOL ….they need to begin listening like SWE recently did too.

    Prices for Milenials will go way down too with single income affordability in the future. We were stupid Gen-X and Baby Boomer? LOL Stop being a Fascist on Seattle Real Estate and admit, there are other opinions beside your’s.

  117. 1117

    RE: Erik @ 1108
    Trump Gobbled Up NYC Repos Too, Just Like You

    He made great money [lost some too…LOL] too….but generally timed it and planned it almost perfectly [no ones perfect BTW] too.

    MAGA Erik…get capitalism rich and don’t follow the dummy open border party poor to Socialism?

  118. 1118

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1018
    Interest Rates are Up

    And yes, approved pending home loans are losing speed lately [check it out]…its especially bad here, no one qualifies with strict/normal bank loans; without huge cash payments and /or previous equity. It used to be 30% maximum of net pay [not gross pay] after other debts [like car and school]….we’re returning to that safe banking era.

    Savers/retirees are smiling a bit more now too. Another rattle snake in the banking system is loans to duplicate Social Security Numbers [illegal aliens] the banks currently allows; someone needs to accept this as a loss…its just a matter of time now…..that will further raise interest rates I imagine. But good gosh, isn’t a law abiding society more important than Fascist Real Estate greed? Think long-term. God bless the poor Milenials….LOL

  119. 1119
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: N @ 1113 – “Sponsored by Zillow”

    Came from their press release:
    http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-05-22-Experts-Predict-Next-Recession-Will-Begin-in-2020

    Of course they want to induce panic into potential sellers to “SELL NOW OR ELSE YOUR HOME WILL DEPRECIATE”. There’s such a hot market right now, they can’t make money if there aren’t any properties available to sell.

  120. 1120
    pedaltothemetal says:

    The problem with Seattle is even “highly paid” software engineers are just barely getting by enough to afford the same housing that was available to teachers, nurses etc. salary not long ago.

    Compounding the shittiness of this deal, is terrible traffic, worse schools, growing taxes, dying culture, loads of software bros, almost forgot to mention, those 80hr work weeks keeping the Amazon infra from dying aren’t so good for family life.

    Some economist give people too much credit for being “rational”. However, you only need to be minorly rational to figure out that Seattle has become a terrible deal. It might make since for a quick year or two on your resume, but after that it’s a burden.

    If you truly love the rain, being in extreme debt on an asset that is quickly composting itself, being in a town where important services such as transit and schools get worse rather than better, or just really love stepping in the bezos, or puckering up to our overlords micro-penis, or going out to dinner just to realize that everyone else is also talking about that same micro-penis, then Seattle might be your ticket.

  121. 1121
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 1118

    Zillow getting into flipping houses, is a clear and unmistakable sign that we are very near the top.

    Hilarious that after others have made a ***** ton of $$$ and are getting out of the market, mr rascoff is getting in. He is very very very late to the game.

  122. 1122

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 1118

    Zillow doesn’t make their money by selling houses.

  123. 1123

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1112

    Step away from the meth houses.

    If you need a house to live in, go somewhere where the price you can afford is not a teardown or a meth house. What is your price range with $100,000 spread? I thought $850k to $950k, but may be mixing you up with someone else talking in this over 1,120 comment thread. :)

  124. 1124
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1122
    Thanks ARDELL for the advice. I started with a much lower price range but am not liking anything in those range so had to jump up to the range you have mentioned.

  125. 1125
    pedaltothemetal says:

    It’s not every day you get:

    1) A business prof at NYU stern – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MOwRTTq1bY
    2) Bernie Sanders – https://www.cnet.com/news/bernie-sanders-derides-amazons-business-practices-bezos-wealth/
    3) And Trump

    All in agreement. Time to clean up the bezos.

  126. 1126
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1121 – No they don’t directly make money by selling houses. However, why would they pay for an in-house economist and publish market surveys and press release and other marketing propaganda? To serve their self interests which is to drive their revenues. The article is a click-bait.

    From their 10-K
    “We generate revenue from the sale of advertising services and our suite of marketing software and technology solutions to businesses and professionals primarily associated with the residential real estate, mortgage and rental industries. These professionals include real estate, mortgage and rental professionals and brand advertisers. Our two primary revenue categories are marketplace revenue and display revenue.

    Marketplace revenue for the year ended December 31, 2017 consists of Premier Agent revenue, other real estate revenue and mortgages revenue. Premier Agent revenue is generated by the sale of advertising under our Premier Agent and Premier Broker programs, which offer a suite of marketing and business technology products and services to help real estate agents and brokers achieve their advertising needs, while growing and managing their businesses and brands. We offer our flagship Premier Agent advertising product and our Premier Broker advertising product on a cost per impression basis. Impressions are delivered when a sold advertisement appears on pages viewed by users of our mobile applications and websites. Other real estate revenue primarily includes revenue generated by Zillow Group Rentals, as well as revenue from the sale of various other marketing and business products and services to real estate professionals, including our new construction marketing solutions. Zillow Group Rentals includes our rentals marketplace and suite of tools for rental professionals. Rentals revenue primarily includes revenue generated by advertising sold to property managers and other rental professionals on a cost per lead, cost per lease and cost per click generated basis. Our new construction marketing solutions allow home builders to showcase their available inventory to home shoppers. New construction revenue primarily includes revenue generated by advertising sold to builders on a cost per residential community basis. Mortgages revenue primarily includes advertising sold to mortgage lenders and other mortgage professionals, including our Long Form and Custom Quote services, as well as revenue generated by Mortech, which provides subscription-based mortgage software solutions, including a product and pricing engine and lead management platform.

    Display revenue primarily consists of graphical mobile and web advertising sold on a cost per thousand impressions or cost per click basis to advertisers promoting their brands on our mobile applications and websites and our partner websites and mobile applications, primarily in the real estate industry, including real estate brokerages, multi-family rental professionals, mortgage professionals and home services providers. Our advertising customers also include telecommunications, automotive, insurance and consumer products companies.”

  127. 1127
    Sid says:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 1119:


    Some economist give people too much credit for being “rational”. However, you only need to be minorly rational to figure out that Seattle has become a terrible deal. It might make since for a quick year or two on your resume, but after that it’s a burden.

    …..

    Seattle is still a great deal as far as housing is concerned. Compensation for software engineers in Seattle at the big firms is similar to what it is in the Bay area and housing is 50% cheaper here.

  128. 1128
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Sid @ 1126

    Sid,

    If forced between San Fran and Seattle, you are right. However, those are not the only options these days.

    Not too long ago lots of people chose to move to Seattle and work for MS largely because of quality of life.

    These days, there are many many many other cities and employers that offer aspiring software engineers better quality of life, with the side benefit of not constantly wading in the bezos.

    Now there are 2 categories where this doesn’t apply:

    1) H1b – They are fucked. Seattle might suck, but they don’t have a choice. They must do as their micro penis master tells them.

    2) Old middle management. These people bought houses when housing was affordable. They no longer poses technical skills and are best off riding it out till they retire, or get laid off.

  129. 1129

    By Suburban Mom @ 1125:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1121 – No they don’t directly make money by selling houses.

    They do plan on flipping houses.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/zillow-shares-plunge-on-plan-to-start-flipping-homes-rival-opendoor.html

    I think they’re starting to believe some of their own BS, and think that they are actually a real estate company. The difficulty their own CEO had in selling his own house in Seattle during a very hot market should dispel them of that belief. They are an advertising company, not a real estate company.

  130. 1130
    Erik says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 1127
    Ooooooo… you’re going to get in trouble for dropping the f-bomb.
    Reverend Tim is a family man these days. If he doesn’t ban you he will likely take you to task for your indecencies. I like the profanity. Do let us know how it turns out for you.

  131. 1131

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 1125

    :) Yes…we all know this. But why are you saying “Of course they want to induce panic into potential sellers to “SELL NOW OR ELSE YOUR HOME WILL DEPRECIATE”. There’s such a hot market right now, they can’t make money if there aren’t any properties available to sell.”

    In a more robust and plentiful market, agents can more easily get “leads” without paying Zillow for them. Desperate agents with few leads are more likely to pay Zillow to get some. So inducing a panic for sellers doesn’t necessarily help them. In fact if they are suggesting the market will/may go down, to induce more seller leads…won’t it also scare away the buyers who would buy them creating fewer buyer leads at the same time?

    And telling buyers to wait a bit as prices will surely go down within two years doesn’t help the lenders at all, and mortgage is a big part of their revenue.

    I see nothing that would induce them to favor seller leads vs buyer leads given they likely get and sell a lot more buyer leads.

    Yes on the click bait…well known. But how does a bias help them? In fact saying the market will go down by 2020 (which I agree with BTW) would more likely cause sellers to wait two years and create more fear in the hearts of buyers.

    So no. Don’t agree they are being dishonest in some way to promote panic selling before 2020. Wouldn’t serve their interests to do that.

  132. 1132
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1130
    Why is the market going to go down by 2020? I need a nay sayers to backup this claim. As of yet, all the data I see says the opposite.

  133. 1133
    Suburban Mom says:

    RE: Erik @ 1129 – Hopefully The Tim is still alive. Has anyone has any contact with him? Starting to get a little worried he hasn’t posted anything for so long.

  134. 1134
    Sid says:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 1127:

    RE: Sid @ 1126

    Sid,

    If forced between San Fran and Seattle, you are right. However, those are not the only options these days.

    ……..

    .

    I disagree. Those are the only two options these days for top quality technical people who want to have great careers and get top dollar for their skills. Other cities like Austin, Salt Lake city, NY etc… do have tech jobs but not at the level that Seattle and Bay Area can offer. If an entrepreneur was starting a cloud tech company, then he/she would be stupid to not start it in Seattle as that is where the best talent is. It is a cycle which brings in more talent and which again causes more companies start and base their offices here.
    Most of the top finance folks end up in NY for the same reason and it is a hub for that particular field even though there are finance jobs all over the country.

  135. 1135
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Sid @ 1133

    Sid,

    Everything you just said about Austin, Salt Lake city, NY… not too long ago people in San Fran were saying the same thing about Seattle. Not as good tech talent as san fran… yadda yadda yadda. Yet, many people chose to live and work in Seattle, again for quality of life.

    Now the cycle continues… this time looking for more fertile ground than Ama-Sea.

    Also keep in mind that “talent” is something Michael Jordan has and almost everyone else does not.

    A willingness to wake up in the middle of the night and fix the problem of some string not parsing into a guid, is in no way related to the word “talent”. Its more likely related to not wanting to be fired and shipped back to India.

    With your definition of “talent”, you should think “willingness for indentured servitude”

    If you truly have talent, one of the big boys will pay you enough to make living almost anywhere ok.

    For everyone else 99.999% of engineers, Seattle is quickly falling lower and lower on the list.

  136. 1136
  137. 1137
    piggyshooz says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 1119 – i love the rain, not so much stepping in the bezos. Seriously bezos definition on this thread has been a fantastic addition

  138. 1138
    Sid says:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 1134:

    RE: Sid @ 1133

    Sid,

    Everything you just said about Austin, Salt Lake city, NY… not too long ago people in San Fran were saying the same thing about Seattle. Not as good tech talent as san fran… yadda yadda yadda. Yet, many people chose to live and work in Seattle, again for quality of life.

    Again I disagree with trying to compare Seattle to Austin, NY, Salt Lake City. These cities do not and never had any top tier companies pulling in “talent” (or people with appropriate skill set) at the scale that Amazon and Microsoft have and will continue to do.
    2 out of the top 3 companies by market cap were founded here. And both are growing faster than AAPL (#1) at the moment. What great tech company was founder in NY (Foursquare?) or Austin (Dell?). There is no comparison with Seattle and until these cities have a major successful company founded and based there, they will remain tier 2 cities for tech talent. At the same time, I expect more and more folks from Bay Area continue to move here for “affordable” housing.

  139. 1139
    David says:

    A new PCC Market just opened today down in Burien. I’m going to take a Uhaul there filled with quarters and buy a watermelon this weekend. Not sure how this will effect my 401k.

    Apparently there is more money there than you might think.

  140. 1140
    Erik says:

    RE: Suburban Mom @ 1132
    I’m sure Tim is in a dark room somewhere drinking Diet Coke and writing computer code. Tim grew out of the Seattle housing data phase and is probably doing something more interesting like raising a family. I myself will not leave this website until Tim turns off the lights or bans me. This website will consist of just me and Kary before it gets shut down. Kary has dedication and will be tough to outlast.

  141. 1141

    By Sid @ 1137:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 1134:

    RE: Sid @ 1133

    Sid,

    Everything you just said about Austin, Salt Lake city, NY… not too long ago people in San Fran were saying the same thing about Seattle. Not as good tech talent as san fran… yadda yadda yadda. Yet, many people chose to live and work in Seattle, again for quality of life.

    Again I disagree with trying to compare Seattle to Austin, NY, Salt Lake City. These cities do not and never had any top tier companies pulling in “talent” (or people with appropriate skill set) at the scale that Amazon and Microsoft have and will continue to do. .

    Maybe the thing that would bring you two a bit closer would be if one of those cities was Amazon’s HQ2. They still wouldn’t be quite the same as Seattle, but they would be more competitive than they are now.

  142. 1142
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1115:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1040
    LOL Bubble Trouble

    I just recently figured out what the Milenial [like my 28 YO daughter] women really want; I listened to them recently…and saw the recent national poll results too. 70% of Milenial women just want to be normal housewives with a working hubby….Good gosh….that’s sacrilege to PC open border party Seattle pundits….LOL ….they need to begin listening like SWE recently did too.

    FAKE NEWS!!!

    I have been assured by my betters in the MSM that no self respecting woman want to be (as stated by Barack O) “punished with a baby”. The only thing 28 year old women want is to smash the patriarchy by any means necessary. And I think developers are buying into this with the insane amounts of condos/apartments being built all over the country.

  143. 1143
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Sid @ 1133:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 1127:

    RE: Sid @ 1126

    Sid,

    If forced between San Fran and Seattle, you are right. However, those are not the only options these days.

    ……..

    .

    I disagree. Those are the only two options these days for top quality technical people who want to have great careers and get top dollar for their skills. Other cities like Austin, Salt Lake city, NY etc… do have tech jobs but not at the level that Seattle and Bay Area can offer. If an entrepreneur was starting a cloud tech company, then he/she would be stupid to not start it in Seattle as that is where the best talent is. It is a cycle which brings in more talent and which again causes more companies start and base their offices here.
    Most of the top finance folks end up in NY for the same reason and it is a hub for that particular field even though there are finance jobs all over the country.

    It’s funny because if you ask someone from the Bay Area, they think Seattle is part of “those other cities” as well. In every industry there is THE city and then the also rans. And all the also rans think they’re a special also ran as good as #1, when in reality the #1 city looks down its nose at all of them equally.

    With tech it’s SF/SJ. With finance it’s NY. With entertainment it’s LA. And so on.

    If anything LA has more “street cred” than Seattle when it comes to tech. Probably because it’s in CA and by default anything in CA is cooler/hipper/better than something outside CA, in the eyes of the Bay Area tech community.

    Amazon has some street cred for sure. But Microsoft? That’s seen as old school and the antithesis of cool/hip to the Bay Area peeps. Try finding a non-Apple laptop or anyone using MS-Word or Excel or Outlook anywhere within 30 miles of San Francisco. Microsoft is what your grandpa used, no way you’re going to work there.

  144. 1144

    Here’s an interesting factoid which pertains to the upzoning argument. Seattle is the 9th most densely populated large city in the US. Denser than L.A.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/114000-more-people-seattle-now-this-decades-fastest-growing-big-city-in-all-of-united-states/

  145. 1145

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 1119
    The High Tech Companies Lie About STEM Worker Needs Requiring H-1Bs

    To lower the technical wages, as the manufacturing engineering and safety engineering [does Asia and Europe even believe in Safety Engineers?] disappears completely from Seattle real estate wages. Microsoft source codes are trade intellectual property trade secrets and not taught in universities…therefore a Seattle area legal citizen high school graduate qualifies to get on the job training for most S/W development positions, not a STEM degree at all needed. No one except cheap H-1Bs are good enough? LOL

    We need our high paid Boeing Auburn Fabrication back….Japan can have all the Amazon jobs….future trade deal to cut foreign trade deficit with Japan? its like renegotiating NAFTA…that giant job sucking trade deal Ross Perot tried Clinton to stop.

  146. 1146

    Off the Beaten Path

    But indirectly related to Seattle Real Estate anyway; a story today popped up on those new high tech listening devises [Google, Xfinity X1, Dish, Smart TVs, etc]…this time its our favorite Bubble employer, Amazon and their spy devise…

    https://www.kiro7.com/www.kiro7.com/news/local/woman-says-her-amazon-device-recorded-private-conversation-sent-it-out-to-random-contact/755507974

    The story is from Seattle. If my X1 box listens to me, I’ll brain wash ’em LOL

  147. 1147

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1145
    Billionaires Besos [AMZ] and Trump Hate Each Other BTW

    I think it goes back 10-20 years….it may be their ethic differences on rule of law?

  148. 1148

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1146 – Or maybe it’s just that Trump is an ***** I think Trump is probably only nice to people he wants to suck up to for some benefit. Bezos/Amazon probably don’t have any reason to do business with Trump.

    BTW, Mark Cuban doesn’t care for Trump either.

  149. 1149
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1147:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1146 – Or maybe it’s just that Trump is an ***** I think Trump is probably only nice to people he wants to suck up to for some benefit. Bezos/Amazon probably don’t have any reason to do business with Trump.

    BTW, Mark Cuban doesn’t care for Trump either.

    Mark Cuban? The guy who sexually assaulted a woman and who instructed his team to lose on purpose to get a good draft choice? That Mark Cuban?

  150. 1150
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1142

    Sid,

    Tomorrow will look different than today.
    Things change, people grow.
    More and more world class tech work, even done by actually “talented” people gets done outside SanFran/Seattle.
    Whats your fav language? x86?

  151. 1151
    David says:

    The wife and I went to LA last year. Some homeless guy was stabbed on the beach within 10 minutes of arrival. He was screaming and bellowing and protesting like the dang fool he was.

    The whole area was dirty, decayed and gross. We took an Uber to go across the city just to see what places were nicer. Answer: None of them.

    BTW, Beverly Hills voted for Trump. Maybe that is the nicest place.

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1142:

    By Sid @ 1133:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 1127:

    RE: Sid @ 1126

    Sid,

    If forced between San Fran and Seattle, you are right. However, those are not the only options these days.

    ……..

    .

    I disagree. Those are the only two options these days for top quality technical people who want to have great careers and get top dollar for their skills. Other cities like Austin, Salt Lake city, NY etc… do have tech jobs but not at the level that Seattle and Bay Area can offer. If an entrepreneur was starting a cloud tech company, then he/she would be stupid to not start it in Seattle as that is where the best talent is. It is a cycle which brings in more talent and which again causes more companies start and base their offices here.
    Most of the top finance folks end up in NY for the same reason and it is a hub for that particular field even though there are finance jobs all over the country.

    It’s funny because if you ask someone from the Bay Area, they think Seattle is part of “those other cities” as well. In every industry there is THE city and then the also rans. And all the also rans think they’re a special also ran as good as #1, when in reality the #1 city looks down its nose at all of them equally.

    With tech it’s SF/SJ. With finance it’s NY. With entertainment it’s LA. And so on.

    If anything LA has more “street cred” than Seattle when it comes to tech. Probably because it’s in CA and by default anything in CA is cooler/hipper/better than something outside CA, in the eyes of the Bay Area tech community.

    Amazon has some street cred for sure. But Microsoft? That’s seen as old school and the antithesis of cool/hip to the Bay Area peeps. Try finding a non-Apple laptop or anyone using MS-Word or Excel or Outlook anywhere within 30 miles of San Francisco. Microsoft is what your grandpa used, no way you’re going to work there.

  152. 1152

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1148 – I don’t know about any accusations of abuse, but he does own a team and it would make a lot of sense to lose to get better draft picks, so maybe.

    As to allegations of abuse, there was this in the news today.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/05/24/body-cam-video-exonerates-texas-state-trooper-accused-sexual-assault/639858002/

  153. 1153
    tc says:

    Sid @1137

    Part of the issue with countering your opinion, is how do you define “top talent?”

    That is a very relative term an is dependent upon the specific area within Software Engineering that ,ay be in question. Top Windows system engineers, then you are correct in regards to Seattle. Top Unix, then Bay Area and Boston. Top Linux, umm, Linus Torvalds lives in Portland and Red Hat is Research Triangle in NC and Boston. Austin was home to a major IBM presence way before the current wave to the city.

    Why Boston? It has MIT, which along with Stanford and Berkeley is one of the top Computer Science school.

    Research Triangle, NC has Univ NC, Duke, and NC State.

    Silicon Valley has Stanford and up the road Berkeley.

    The point is if you want to say top talent, you need to look at what are the top research schools, not who is hiring the most. Yes, UW is up there, but it isn’t top 5.

  154. 1154
    N says:

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/23/what-will-surging-mortgage-rates-do-to-housing-bubble-2/

    Example 2: Household budget for mortgage payment is $3,500 a month. With a 30-year fixed rate mortgage:

    At 3.5%, they can afford a $779,000 home
    At 4.86%, what they can afford drops by $117,000 to $662,000
    At 6%, it drops by $195,000 from their original aspirations to $584,000.

    Example 3, for cities like San Francisco, where this reflects the median home price: Household budget for mortgage payment is $6,000 a month. With a 30-year fixed rate mortgage:

    At 3.5%, they can afford a $1.336 million home – a decent two-bedroom condo.
    At 4.86%, they have to lower their aspirations by $200,000 to $1.136 million.
    At 6%, they have to slash their original aspirations by $336,000 to $1.0 million.

  155. 1155
    Sid says:

    114,000 more people: Seattle now decade’s fastest-growing big city in all of U.S.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/114000-more-people-seattle-now-this-decades-fastest-growing-big-city-in-all-of-united-states/

    https://qz.com/1287700/seattle-and-irvine-are-the-fastest-growing-us-cities-in-2017/

    The boom will continue. The next decade will see even more number of people move in.

  156. 1156
    uwp says:

    Who was it that used to always post about Seattle not really growing that fast? Something about birth/death/household size?

  157. 1157
    Erik says:

    RE: Sid @ 1133
    Hey Sid, I’ve got one for yah…
    What do software engineers use for birth control?

  158. 1158
    pedaltothemetal says:

    What’s your fav airport to live by? Boeing Field or Sea Tac?
    What’s your fav arterial to live by? I5, 99 or 522?
    Is it true true that the slu balls are an exact replica of the bezos 3 ball sack?
    Do you prefer heroin or meth while sitting in traffic on that west seattle bridge?
    How much heroin and/or meth will you consume by the time your house is paid off?
    How much bezos will you have stepped in?
    Has the city considered draining lake washington? Maybe leave a mini lake around laurelhurst?

  159. 1159
    David says:

    The wife and I went to LA last year. Some homeless guy was knifed on the beach within 10 minutes of arrival. He was screaming and bellowing and protesting unconvincingly.

    The whole area was dirty, decayed and gross. We took an Uber to go across the city just to see what places were nicer. Answer: None of them.

    BTW, Beverly Hills voted for Trump. Maybe that is the nicest place.

  160. 1160
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1146:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1145
    Billionaires Besos [AMZ] and Trump Hate Each Other BTW

    I think it goes back 10-20 years….it may be their ethic differences on rule of law?

    Bezos has a lot more money than Trump. That is what it is. Compared to Bezos Trump might as well be on food stamps. Trump is worth 3 billion and Bezos is worth 129 billion. Trump is basically a rounding error on Bezos’ net worth. He is also probably a better negotiator than Trump. Trump got played big time by North Korea. So embarrassing. He’s going to have to give back his imaginary Nobel Peace Prize.

  161. 1161
    pfft says:

    By uwp @ 1153:

    Who was it that used to always post about Seattle not really growing that fast? Something about birth/death/household size?

    But everyone tells me how bad Seattle is and how bad the city council is. But people are fleeing to Seattle?
    :)

    People don’t realize that SEA/washinton has one of the most regressive(meaning the poor pay a larger % of tax revenue) than a lot of places.

    http://kuow.org/post/seattle-has-most-regressive-taxes-among-large-us-cities-report-says

  162. 1162
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Any Redfin/Zillow/Trulia PMs on here?

    ***New feature request***

    Bezos heat map!

    This should be done in shades of brown, with areas containing highest levels of bezos colored in dark brown.

  163. 1163
  164. 1164
    David says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1160 – I will say that this place was quite nice:

    http://www.pomonavalleyminingco.com/

  165. 1165
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1150:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1148 – I don’t know about any accusations of abuse, but he does own a team and it would make a lot of sense to lose to get better draft picks, so maybe.

    As to allegations of abuse, there was this in the news today.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/05/24/body-cam-video-exonerates-texas-state-trooper-accused-sexual-assault/639858002/

    Yeah I saw that story and my point about Cuban. Guys like him (and Trump) get accused all the time. There’s big bux in the accuse rich guy of sexual impropriety business. Gloria Alred made a career of it. Yet Cuban is a hypocritical as-swipe who went through this same exact experience, but then turns around and talks about how bad Trump is for having also been accused.

  166. 1166
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By pfft @ 1157:

    By softwarengineer @ 1146:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1145
    Billionaires Besos [AMZ] and Trump Hate Each Other BTW

    I think it goes back 10-20 years….it may be their ethic differences on rule of law?

    Bezos has a lot more money than Trump. That is what it is. Compared to Bezos Trump might as well be on food stamps. Trump is worth 3 billion and Bezos is worth 129 billion. Trump is basically a rounding error on Bezos’ net worth. He is also probably a better negotiator than Trump. Trump got played big time by North Korea. So embarrassing. He’s going to have to give back his imaginary Nobel Peace Prize.

    Trump Derangement Syndrome is amusing to watch. Kinda sad, but also amusing. I love how one day Trump is an eeeeeevil rich guy who gave tax cuts to his fellow eeeeeeevil rich guy. Then the next day he’s on food stamps. Much like how Bush was a dullard who couldn’t tie his shoes, while simultaneously masterminding 9/11.

  167. 1167
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By pfft @ 1158:

    By uwp @ 1153:

    Who was it that used to always post about Seattle not really growing that fast? Something about birth/death/household size?

    But everyone tells me how bad Seattle is and how bad the city council is. But people are fleeing to Seattle?
    :)

    People don’t realize that SEA/washinton has one of the most regressive(meaning the poor pay a larger % of tax revenue) than a lot of places.

    http://kuow.org/post/seattle-has-most-regressive-taxes-among-large-us-cities-report-says

    The “study” was done by Economic Opportunity Institute. What is the Economic Opportunity Institute, you ask? This might give you an idea:

    “To fulfill our mission, we must acknowledge the structural and institutional racism that manifests as ongoing and devastating economic, educational, health and other disparities facing our communities. EOI has recently convened a Race and Social Justice Workgroup to begin integrating a racial equity lens into our public policy research, communications and advocacy, internal governance, and external relations. We still have much to learn, and we will continue to reflect and act with courage, openness, and humility.”

    In other words, it’s your typical socialist, anti-American SJW front group. So I’m sure their “study” is very accurate and in no way pushing an agenda. LOL

  168. 1168

    By pedaltothemetal @ 1155:

    What’s your fav airport to live by? Boeing Field or Sea Tac?

    That’s actually another benefit to living further out–less airplane noise! When I first moved to Seattle and lived on the UW campus it drove me nuts!

    Here’s a neat little map that tells you about the expected noise in different areas, including freeway noise.

    https://maps.bts.dot.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a303ff5924c9474790464cc0e9d5c9fb

    Newcastle is probably the closest in place where the noise is minimal, but otherwise you’re looking at going as far out as Maple Valley or Covington to avoid virtually all the noise.

  169. 1169

    By David @ 1156:

    The wife and I went to LA last year. Some homeless guy was knifed on the beach within 10 minutes of arrival. .

    Wow, you work quick! ;-)

  170. 1170

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1164
    Sales Tax and Rent Increases

    Are good for the poor….it teaches them how to budget….LOL

  171. 1171

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1162 – Don’t get me wrong, I think Mark Cuban is an ***** too. It’s just that I’m skeptical of accusations.

    My wife was watching that thing on Michael Jackson last night, and the child abuse allegations are a good example. I lean a bit toward believing them because I don’t understand why a grown man would want to hang out with kids, but at the same time I realize that the allegations may or may not be true. And just making the allegation is extremely damaging to the accused.

  172. 1172

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1165
    Seattle Noise Problem Knocked Half My Hearing out My Ear Specialist Tells Me

    I now wear hearing aids in meetings and with social groups….the cause you ask???

    Small tin can cars I drove [like 2.5 L 4 cylinders] that don’t insulate the high frequency whine of tires and wheel bearing noise on the roads….I drive a quiet 4200 lb steel one now…the Mustang and Challenger are too loud too…try a big Mercedes or better yet a much cheaper Charger or Chrysler 300 muffler [very quiet].

  173. 1173

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1164 – More to the point, the result that group comes to finding that Washington has a regressive tax system only occurs by assuming that poor people pay taxes that they don’t pay! It’s made-up nonsense.

    Sales taxes do tend to be regressive, but they don’t apply to rent, utilities or most food. And no, in our current market the rent does not include a component for real estate taxes. Rents would be just as high today even if there were a two year moratorium on all real estate taxes (a period I picked because it’s short enough to not affect supply).

    If we wanted to make our sales taxe less regressive we would eliminate the deduction for the trade-in value of a car. That is horrible as social policy for many reasons, and mainly benefits auto dealers. But as it is, it is not as bad as some sales tax systems.

  174. 1174

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1170 – On the topic of auto dealers, this Ken Harney article is relevant.

    http://www.telegram.com/news/20180524/kenneth-harney-racial-disparities-significant-in-mortgage-rejections

    It addresses why people are turned down for mortgage loans, breaking it down by race. So rather than the stories last year that noted minorities are turned down more often, it looks for the specific cause. Basically it looks beyond correlation to causation.

    But Harney notes a “civil rights” group matched pair study in the auto-finance area that showed that minorities were given worse terms on auto loans. I have little doubt that’s true, because much or even most auto-finance is done at the dealer level, and the dealers get more money depending on the terms of the auto loans. One of the reasons I got out of bankruptcy law is the then new Bankruptcy Act was going to require debtors to reaffirm their auto debt or return their car, and to reaffirm I would have to attest that the auto loan was not a hardship. But auto loans were often one of the significant causes of a bankruptcy. The terms of many auto loans were horrible, and a lot of it was probably due to poor negotiating skills of my clients. They were often taken advantage of.

    Does this same rate and terms issue occur in the mortgage industry? Probably, but they are not likely to push it to the point where the buyer no longer qualifies for the loan. That would be counter-productive.

  175. 1175

    Here’s an article about Zillow’s first house purchase. Per the article, it appears they bought it for $410,000 and are now trying to sell it for $425,000. This will be interesting to watch to see how long it takes to sell and what they actually get for it. But they seem like they are going after very low margins!

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/inside-look-zillows-first-home-purchase-real-estate-media-giant-will-buy-sell-houses/

  176. 1176

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1171
    The Open Border Party Mesmerization

    Mixes up lies with real data and history….makes a big bill small a blue sky purple? Use word parcing and you can twist any tale to your personal politics…LOL

    Now the open border party is pathetic….they can’t even litigate stuck 2500 RPM Toyota/Lexus Safety Recalls correcting MAJOR safety engineering transportation concerns in our foreign controlled court systems….it wasn’t the floor mats folks it was a broke computer and acceleration module [it should have bankrupted Toyota BTW]. My wheel speed sensor on my FCA 2014 Charger is a normal cheap maintenance log fix [about $175] in a hot space near the front brake rotor and yes, an idiot light came on when it failed and my cruise control won’t turn on [why is that a safety defect at all?]….these same foreign Overlords that control the courts now allege its a HORRIFYING Safety recall that can cause “stuck Cruise Control???” deaths [examples with evidence please Fake News MSM?]…its not just real estate Kary, its the whole economy is corrupted. Even Car and Driver [Japanese owned?] 0-60 mph and mpg specs are a joke now…..measure ’em yourself with rental cars and iPhone films of the speedometer. My 6.2 sec 0-60 mph in Car and Driver on my American engineered 6 cylinder became about 4 secs and on film [going up a slope too….the car is a proverbial rocket and gets like 35 MPG on long trips to boot [especially on Cruise Control]. A Camaro owner showed me his iPhone acceleration evidence too…same conundrum.

    Poorly designed Asian automatic transmissions use computers to slow ’em down [they last much longer that way BTW]….the engine HP is a joke for measuring acceleration too, so is an oil burning Cheap Turbo Charger add-on…brain washing folks. if ya want a Turbo Charger install it after you buy your car….its far cheaper and the same mechanical result. Does MSM ever tell us the truth???

    The real estate in Seattle is controlled exactly the same way….pathetic.

    God bless our American engineers!

  177. 1177
    uwp says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1172 – I would assume they are trying to get some deals done quickly and easily before they start fattening margins.

  178. 1178

    RE: uwp @ 1174 – But investors will be watching. If their first deal sells at a loss that won’t be good.

    I didn’t look at any pictures of the house, but it seems like an odd one to go after absent getting a great price for it. The smartest people in that deal might have been the sellers.

  179. 1179
    uwp says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1175 – Lord knows investors hate it when companies work at slim (or even negative) margins to acquire customers!

  180. 1180
    Dustin says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1175:

    RE: uwp @ 1174 – The smartest people in that deal might have been the sellers.

    Maybe it’s a publicity stunt intended to entice other presumably less savvy sellers to jump in and request quotes for their houses?

  181. 1181
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Dustin @ 1177

    Mortgage rates going up.
    Home builders stocks going down.
    Zillow getting into flipping.

    1 of these things is not like the others, can you spot it?

  182. 1182
    Blake says:

    From London’s Financial Times:
    New York property jitters herald declines elsewhere
    Some treat housing like a tradeable asset and chase yields. But what happens next?
    https://www.ft.com/content/c684235e-5e9f-11e8-ad91-e01af256df68
    Clouds are hovering over New York’s housing market. A couple of years ago, property prices were spiralling ever higher — much like the new luxury skyscrapers now springing up in midtown Manhattan. But estate agents say that sales volumes in the first quarter of 2018 were at their lowest level for six years. Meanwhile the median price per square foot was 18 per cent lower than a year earlier, according to some reports.
    ….
    Indeed, the most intriguing point in the IMF report is that “heightened synchronicity of house prices can signal a downside tail risk to real economic activity, especially when taking place in a buoyant credit environment.”

    In plain English, this means that a correlated boom in global real estate markets can signal trouble ahead. We should keep a close eye on those estate agents’ reports in New York — as well as London or Hong Kong. The Big Apple’s jitters might yet be a canary in the coal-mine.
    (end quote)

  183. 1183
    BacktoBasics says:

    Seattle METRO area still see net population inflow. While we see a lot of apt under construction, we only see redevelop on for the SFH. So a lot tear down and build large house on the same lot. The net inflow population has families. they won’t live in Apt forever. So we have a shadow demand in the coming years. The rate increase fear will only put fuel on the existing bidding war. a 7 to 8% price increase YOY is not bad for the healthy housing market for the long term.

  184. 1184
    David says:

    At some point, the market will require Amazon to deliver profits. Or the stock will match their performance.

    See APPL

    By uwp @ 1176:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1175 – Lord knows investors hate it when companies work at slim (or even negative) margins to acquire customers!

  185. 1185
    wreckingbull says:

    By Brian @ 1104:

    RE: S-Crow @ 1102

    S-Crow, you’re my favorite here. I always be sure to read your posts.

    I just love how we have such a variety of people here. From real estate agents to escrow agents to Erik.

    S-Crow is also my favorite because his posts always have substance, not just some stale old repackaging of reasons why Seattle MSA RE will continue to appreciate. I’d also point out that Snohomish County is one of the fastest growing counties in the nation. Because of this, I’d argue that he has a very good vantage point of trends. He has been here for years, and always has been very rational. We need more Blue Crow and fewer pom-poms.

  186. 1186
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 1178 – After finishing off a 12-can Schmidt Sport Pack, last night, I woke up in front of the TV at 3:30 AM, and there was a guy named Erik talking at me through the speaker about West Seattle condos and a 22 year cycle and how I can get rich fast, but I have to act now, as there is only four years until the year 2022 when the Great Cycle repeats.

  187. 1187
    Deerhawke says:

    It has been a while since I checked in. Really busy finishing one house and getting others through the permitting process.

    First thought. Still no Tim?

    Second thought. Just my opinion, but it seems like this spring market started out red hot and is now much cooler and more price sensitive. I am starting to see houses that needed a bit of extra work or were a bit overpriced actually sitting — rather than being bid up in a frenzy.

    The Estately inventory figures (which only cover SF homes in King County) show a rise in inventory from 2085 units last year on this date to 2536 today. I think we are seeing the first substantial rise in inventory in years.

    I am guessing there are economic reasons (interest rate spike) and political reasons (City Council anti-jobs vote) for this.

    Query. Is this a short-term readjustment or are we really heading toward a more balanced market?

  188. 1188

    By Deerhawke @ 1183:

    Second thought. Just my opinion, but it seems like this spring market started out red hot and is now much cooler and more price sensitive. I am starting to see houses that needed a bit of extra work or were a bit overpriced actually sitting — rather than being bid up in a frenzy.

    I think that his highly dependent on what area(s) you’re looking at, because the average time on market for April was down significantly from April 2017 and down from March 2018. Also the YTD average time on market was down too. But that said, approximately 30% of the NWMLS areas did have increases YOY, but there didn’t seem to be an price factor to that. Some of those that did were in lower priced areas and some higher priced areas. To the extent that some areas are having longer times it’s possible the agents/sellers are getting ahead of themselves in pricing, rather than it being a reduction in demand.

    Looking at the stats I noticed that the lowest price NWMLS area had a median of $458,000! That’s crazy.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed.

  189. 1189
    Justme says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 1180

    >> Seattle METRO area still see net population inflow.

    Possibly, but how much inflow relative to housing supply, and where is your data? I have already debunked over and over how the OFM population estimates and other government data sources readily admit that their population numbers are unreliable (overestimated). Here is one link that the more discerning and less gullible reader may want to follow

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2018/01/05/nwmls-listings-drought-intensifies-months-supply-hits-new-record-low-december/comment-page-1/#comment-267304

  190. 1190
    David says:

    I’ve noticed this too. MUCH less frenzy.

    Makes me wonder if Amazon employees know internally that something is up and to wait.

    I think it is too late for Seattle to ameliorate the consequences of their actions at this point. I doubt a referendum is going to make Jeff Bezos feel better about being threatened with felony prosecution for his business judgments. It would be like Ted Bundy taking you out to dinner to cheer you up.

    By Deerhawke @ 1183:

    It has been a while since I checked in. Really busy finishing one house and getting others through the permitting process.

    First thought. Still no Tim?

    Second thought. Just my opinion, but it seems like this spring market started out red hot and is now much cooler and more price sensitive. I am starting to see houses that needed a bit of extra work or were a bit overpriced actually sitting — rather than being bid up in a frenzy.

    The Estately inventory figures (which only cover SF homes in King County) show a rise in inventory from 2085 units last year on this date to 2536 today. I think we are seeing the first substantial rise in inventory in years.

    I am guessing there are economic reasons (interest rate spike) and political reasons (City Council anti-jobs vote) for this.

    Query. Is this a short-term readjustment or are we really heading toward a more balanced market?

  191. 1191

    RE: David @ 1186 – This doesn’t show the number of offers, but for properties that went pending/pending inspection within the past 30 days (KC SFR) the median CDOM is 7 days and the average 16. And keep in mind the number of days is only that long due to agents keeping the property on the market via listing restrictions (offer review terms, etc.). That still seemingly is a frenzy, but again different areas could be seeing a slow down.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  192. 1192
    Voight-kampff says:

    I saw a large illuminated “T” in the clouds late last night. I just know the seattle bubble bat signal will not go unheeded. I just know the Tim will not let Gotham crumble under the weight of the Bezos. He will post soon.

  193. 1193
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 1185 – So pleased to see you again. I know you like to cite authority in the form of your previous posts, (in that same thread you were citing one of your posts from last July). But why not, for ease of the reader, just bring the money quote forward?

    QUOTE (from page 10 of http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/april1/psrc0306.pdf)
    When does the HU method perform poorly?
    1. When residential permit data, completions and demolition data are poor.
    2. When household size and occupancy rates are changing.

    Most estimation techniques lose accuracy during periods of change. Many
    models, like CMII, are built around “decade assumptions” or relationships and lack
    precision in capturing periods of rapid population change. The HU methods begins
    with the census period occupancy rates and PPH. Anything that changes these values
    will cause the estimate to go astray. Some examples are: a recession causing
    outmigration, rapid building caused by low mortgage rates, influx of population with
    higher fertility, aging housing , aging population, and change in house values.
    It is always of value to just understand when and why an estimation method is not
    working well
    ENDQUOTE”

    Please note that the examples cited are not exhaustive. They might as easily have included, recovery causing in-migration, low building caused by higher mortgage rates (or a host of other reasons), influx of population with lower fertility, refreshing the housing stock – all of which would contribute to the estimation method not working well, but in the opposite direction of what you are hoping for.

    You cite the potential problems with the sources and numbers we have, but never do you provide a better source, or better numbers. What kind of debunking is that?

    Costar just announced their estimate of Seattle population growth for the last 10 years. They post the number of 114,000. I’m sure it’s not perfect. But with a grain of salt, it still suggests a need for around 50,000 or so housing units. Perhaps we’ve about met that need. But how? 60% apartments? 70% apartments? 80% apartments? It sure wasn’t with SFR’s and condo’s. In the context of a blog for people wanting to own their own place, that matters.

  194. 1194
    David says:

    Erik @ 1154

    This one’s for you friend. In memoriam of Everett. When America flushes, somehow it makes it over the Continental Divide. Let’s Make Everett Great Again:

    https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=9D3UZ_1527001194

  195. 1195

    I’ve never looked at Zillow’s financials until now, and I only did so because some people were making comments regarding tech companies losing money and investors accepting that, which is true. The only problem with that is Zillow isn’t a tech company, it’s an advertising company, but apparently they do lose money! How does an advertising company lose money????

    https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/zg/financials?query=income-statement

  196. 1196

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1041
    Your Older Built Home Probably Has Real Base Board Lumber Floors

    Not this “cork board’, as I call it they used today…its like a sponge if left wet too long and can expand and even tear through with pressure. Make sure the cork board base flooring is sealed with oil base paint or better yet cheap linoleum to keep the cork board dry and then put in your wood floors [wood floors leak like a siff BTW] or carpets. A Hispanic carpet layer taught me this trick when using toxic smelling oil paint this way, paint a rug pad section and quick put the rug mat on the wet paint….it gets sealed from water and minimal fumes…

  197. 1197

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1192 – Yes it does, if you’re talking about baseboard trim, and I’ve even gone to BMC to get some of it updated with new stuff stained to match. Most people would just probably replace it with the crap you mention and paint it white, but I prefer the look of wood.

    http://www.buildwithbmc.com/bmc/Products/Moulding-%26-Millwork/c/Moulding-Millwork

    The flooring itself is particle board on top of plywood on the second floor and particle board on top of boards (car-decking) on the first floor.

    BTW, if anyone has a suggestion for a product to easily refinish the wood doors, I’m all eyes. I’ve seen another house in the neighborhood where they were refinished and it really looked nice.

  198. 1198

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1183

    We are seeing mini-shifts from primary to secondary market (there are 4, but I tend to work in the top 2…a bit in 3 and never 4).

    Using Kirkland as an example, there are two zip codes and 98033 is generally “primary market” and 98034 is “secondary market”. YOY the market is up 17% but the primary market is up 25% and the secondary market is up 10%. This usually flips back and forth. After a 25% bump in the primary market, more people flock to the secondary market causing the reverse to happen with secondary bumping up more than primary temporarily and inventory building in primary. Then it flips back again. Once in awhile they move in unison.

    Very recent data of 30 to 45 days.

    Kirkland 98033 median $1.4M up 25% YOY with an 8% bump in units sold has a 14 day supply under median price and a 30 day supply over median price. (approx.)

    Kirkland 98034 median is $760k up 10% YOY with a 7% bump in units sold and has a 16 day supply under median price and a 30 day supply over median. (approx).

    When the below median of the primary market jumps up, out of reach, the market will shift to above median of the secondary market. When the above median of the secondary market jumps up too high, people shift back to below median in the primary market.

    In the last 8 weeks or so we had a bump in interest rates, but the bump isn’t uniform. After seeing a 50 basis point jump from early March to very recently…approaching 4.75% or more, we saw a slight pull back in the last few days with jumbos locking in at 4.375%. So while interest rates are reported as “up” they are of course moving all the time, and these little spurts of better rate swinging back and forth from low to high and high to low in 50 basis point to 75 basis point movement, create a somewhat irradic market. You might see something sit on market until buyers can lock in at the lower rate shift, their knowing that the rate is running on the high side and expected to recede. Much like the stock market where you buy in the valley and hold off at the rise to peak in the mini-short term market shifts.

    On a side note, for quite some time now, school ranking has not been as much of a price driver as it was a year ago.

    I think your specific product always falls in primary market above median. So your shifts in and out are likely the most rate sensitive product. Presale possibly being problematic given the buyer can’t lock long enough to know their rate at closing. So during construction the buyer can be falling in and out of being able to close as rates fluctuate during the building process. Often above median primary market does not have as many buyers who are maxing out as low tier secondary market or 3rd and 4th level markets that are almost always maxed-out buyers except for investors. So looking at overall County or Tri-County numbers is not giving an accurate read at present, given the housing market is floundering for direction as much as the stock market is floundering for direction since 2/5/2018. The housing market just had a bit of a lag, as it always does.

    Selling pre-sale may become a bit more difficult to also achieve highest and best price, given buyers are more sensitive to what rates will be by closing. Hard to say if you are better off waiting until completion or taking a pre-sale contract, as these shifts are moving in very short term increments. Probably six of one half dozen of the other.

    When the rate is rising you see a bit of buyer hesitancy and when the rate shifts back it is back to full steam. This has been going on for at least 3 weeks and maybe more. So looking at average DOM is not going to help much. Buyers may simple be waiting for slight dip in rate and then pouncing when the rate dips. When it dips I am seeing 5 to 7 offers again and when it jumps you see a house not selling that should have…but then sells at full price or higher after review date.

    If you see a house sitting on market that shouldn’t be, as you said, check where rates are that day. If they are running at 4.75% or above that day, that could be the reason.

    (Required Disclosure: Any stats in this post are hand calculated by Ardell and not published, verified or compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  199. 1199
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1194
    Why is 98033 much pricier than Redmond? I see the school ratings to be lesser than Redmond. Both of them are close to Microsoft. Is it because it is close to the freeway?

  200. 1200

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1195

    Downtown Bellevue and Downtown Kirkland have always been higher than anything Redmond. Lake Washington views and access and better Downtown areas. Sequence usually goes: 98004, 98033, 98005, 98052, 98007 & 98008 with Lake Sammamish views a subset. Then 98034 and 98053 and 98011.

    98006 has changed in this bubble more than the last, due to SLU commute being more of a price influence in this bubble than the last.

    Issaquah-Sammamish “tags on to” as we discussed earlier. Issaquah 98029 tags on to 98006. Sammamish tags on to those differently on the South side (98075) vs the North side (98074) as we discussed before.

    In the last year, only six 98052 homes sold for over $2M compared to 64 in 98033 and 215 in 98004. Over $1.5 Million Redmond 98052 had 33 compared to Kirkland 98033 having 213 and Bellevue 98004 having 278.

    In the last year before peak back in 2006-2007, Redmond wasn’t even close. Only 7 homes back then sold for over $1.5M (and likely those had Lake Sammamish views in the part of 98052 over by the Parkway.) When Redmond had 7, Kirkland had 59 and Bellevue had 133 over $1.5M.

    So Redmond 98052 not changed much as to $1.5M or above in almost a dozen years while Kirkland 98033 and 98004 ‘s numbers have skyrocketed.

    As to 98033, partly due to Google in Kirkland and partly due to Houghton 98033 being near the Park and Ride heading over to SLU.

    Proximity to Microsoft vs proximity to Downtown Bellevue-Kirkland plus Lake Washington view and access…not comparable. Land value is significantly less in Redmond and pretty much always has been.

    In the priciest parts of Kirkland, school rank is very good, so not sure which schools you are comparing. Also in the priciest of homes at the top of the high median, school not an issue as there is a Lakeside School bus stop in 98033 and some in the priciest of homes use that school.

    In your price range the reason to be 98052 is not school or location, it is because you get more for your money there…because the land is cheaper.

    (Required Disclosure: Any stats in this post are hand calculated by Ardell and not published, verified or compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  201. 1201

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1196

    P.S. 98052 Education Hill will start shifting after the new school opens. Einstein has held prices back a bit on the newer homes there built in the last bubble. When the new school opens, I expect the rank…once old enough to be rankable…to be higher and will split the values on the school boundary line. That line may change somewhat, so being well into it vs “on” it is the safer bet.

  202. 1202
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1196
    I was comparing the middle and the high schools. I am looking at 98033 but even with also the advantages that you described above, the price seemed unreasonable for me hence was curious.

  203. 1203

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1198

    It seems “unreasonable” because more of the price is in the land, same as North Seattle. In areas where there are individual teardowns like 98033 and North Seattle, the land values are much higher than in large “development” neighborhoods. You are paying less for the land and more for the house in the areas where you are looking. But they also appreciate less in the long run for the same reason.

  204. 1204
    Greg says:

    By Erik @ 1033:

    RE: redmondjp @ 1030
    I asked you once if you were a programmer and you said you were far from that and went in to tell me how colorful your life was. All your comments suggest you are a programmer from Redmond. So what do you do for work?

    Redmond is sterile and packed full of white male nerds also known a fun sponges.

    Deal with it Erik, they are smarter younger richer hot wives and better jobs then you can dream of.
    Sucks to be you Erik.

  205. 1205
    Greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1191

    Google is a advertising company too…..

    Seems to me tech is an OK title for Zillow.
    Maybe it just leverages tech and if not a true creator of tech like. MS goog etc…
    Frankly I think you just don’t like Zillow more then anything else.

  206. 1206
    Erik says:

    RE: Greg @ 1200
    Right, it does suck to be poor like me.

  207. 1207
    wreckingbull says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1193:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1192

    BTW, if anyone has a suggestion for a product to easily refinish the wood doors, I’m all eyes. I’ve seen another house in the neighborhood where they were refinished and it really looked nice.

    I’m not quite sure exactly what your situation is, but I use Daly’s Seafin Teak Oil, 3 -5 coats with 400 grit wet sand between the first 3 coats. Gives a nice hardened, satin finish. It’s also what Frank Lumber suggests for all their fir doors (which are awesome, in my opinion)

  208. 1208

    By Greg @ 1201:

    Frankly I think you just don’t like Zillow more then anything else.

    Google is much more than an advertising company, just as Amazon is more than a retailer.

    As to Zillow I clearly don’t like Zillow, and that’s well documented. https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2016/05/12/point-counterpoint-zillow-valuable-tool/

    But unlike others, it’s not because of their Zestimates. I think complaints about automated valuation systems are sort of ignorant. Of course they are not accurate!

    I don’t like Zillow because: (1) The Zillow generated information they give on their website is typically poor quality; (2) They have a history of having stale an/or incomplete listings (although they’ve tried to fix that somewhat); (3) They survive primarily by sucking money out of agents; and related to that (4) They don’t give a crap about selling services to agents that they know will result in multi-thousand dollar fines to those agents (and deceive the state DOL in discussing that program during a meeting). But other than the fact they have no real purpose and don’t do anything well, they’re a great company! /sarc

    RE: wreckingbull @ 1203 – Thanks–I’ll check that out.

  209. 1209

    RE: pfft @ 1157
    Imaginary Nobel Peace Prize Going to Trump?

    Well…..Trump drives sensitive critics nuts with his unpredictability, transparency, honesty and lack of PC word smithing skill controls [word smithing is like taking any sentence and interpreting it anyway you want]? America’s currently near bankruptcy and no manufacturing life support too; and that is OK? We don’t need authoritarian/disruptive Trump style harsh Presidential leadership right now for peace in NK??? LOL Pfft….the NK and South Koreans are hugging each with Trump’s team this morning at the DMZ….great spontaneous security for the possible Nobel Peace Prize meeting now? I pray its so and Pfft; you better hope its true too.

    How come Bush and Obama didn’t Tweet transparency and spontaneous actions as they evolved? That’s bad??? Go back to your useless Russian Collusion Fairy Tale Book and leave Trump alone?

  210. 1210

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1204
    Zillow’s Data Shows Lack of Listed Units on Chopping block to Sell too

    That is correct. I randomly drove about 10-15 miles in Kent yesterday and found only new housing developments [now they only have large CASH downs and conventional financing I assume] and one SFH used unit for sale….only “one”used unit with listed sign up. Kent is down to one listed used unit on a random search….horrifying for buyers and sellers too BTW [who’s got brains to buy in this market? The village idiot?] LOL

  211. 1211

    By softwarengineer @ 1205:

    RE: pfft @ 1157
    Imaginary Nobel Peace Prize Going to Trump?

    The Nobel Peace Prize has become a joke.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xXZP0AppUc

    Winning it apparently means you will increase the use of drone strikes (Obama) or turn a blind eye to genocide (Aung San Suu Kyi). Only God knows what would happen if Trump wins it, but I would imagine it would involve “fire and fury like the world has never known.”

  212. 1212

    RE: wreckingbull @ 1203
    I Completely Remodeled My Lake Hills Bellevue Home in 1990

    The wood floors were old fashion [real oak] but nailed to 1955 real base floor beams [not plywood or today’s horrifying cork board]….the oak floor was destroyed with nail holes from rug installation over the wore out oak flooring…

    I got it shining like new oak by drilling down the heads of the carpenter nails below the floor surface, then wood puddy over the holes….this process too two of us [me too] two days….then rented a large push sander to smooth the floor down to the unpainted oak….took about another 1/2 day…..then the clear coat toxic part [I’d use oxygen tanks for this]….hand painting the unfinished oak….another 1/2 day….3 days to dry and wallah….a shiny new oak floor for like $2000…with sweat labor, but much higher quality refurbished wood.

    It gets slippery….but plain Pledge furniture polish and a rag will keep it shining like new…until your chairs scratch it all up in no time? LOL Home maintenance is forever…

  213. 1213

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1207
    Blue is Purple and Black is White to the Word Smithing Creeps

    Have you ever said good morning to folks and they look at you with a mean Seattle style scowl? Its out of control Kary.

  214. 1214

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1207
    Ugly Plumbing Installed on the Ceiling on a 1960 Structure?

    My approximate 1960 built church wood structure added a large/long 2″ Pipe fire extinguisher plumbing system [looks like $25-50K in plumbing cost alone] and nailed it to the ceiling next to the beautiful stained glass windows….it looks horrifying too. I didn’t pay attention to the horrifying details until we started blogging about home maintenance conundrums…

    We slap old things together as we can the Seattle area and to Hades with looks…cover it up with rug….LOL

  215. 1215
    ess says:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-are-still-on-a-tear-case-shiller-says-2018-05-29?mod=bnbh

    We (Seattle) is still number one !
    Notice SF, with its “insane” prices still has tremendous monthly and YOY growth. Either people have money, or lending standards have gone down hill.

  216. 1216

    RE: ess @ 1211 – Here’s the Seattle Time’s story on the same news. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattles-climbing-home-prices-again-lead-the-nation/

    As to San Fransisco, the disaster stories about the effects of tax reform and deducting state & local taxes (SALT) and mortgage interest (MID) obviously are not coming true. California is probably the poster-child for high taxes, but the limits on deducting SALT are seemingly not having much of an impact. I would suspect that might be because people buying houses at SF’s price levels probably were having their MID limited by other provisions prior to the tax reform.

    It also could be that people don’t keep up on tax law changes, and won’t even know about this change until filing taxes this year. A surprising number of people don’t understand the current rules on selling a residence, and they have been in effect for over 20 years.

  217. 1217

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1171
    Speaking of Seattle Real Estate and Bankruptcy Courts

    I’ve alluded to this conundrum in the past; but stumbled on to recent information, re: a new milestone to affect Seattle real estate future planning…its not just Baby Boomer Boeing engineers [ a recent group of qualified/financially strong Seattle Home owners] now with no lower tier youth working pension base to support their current pensions that support real estate stability….its all city, county and state pensions drying up in bankruptcy.

    Even BECU advertises to retirees…the last money sources?

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/study-some-public-pensions-funds-could-run-dry-in-downturn/

    We need more data. What is the average age of Seattle Home owners and how many rely on pensions to pay maintenance and property taxes? Maybe we don’t wanna know….LOL

  218. 1218

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1212
    I Made Out Like a Bandit on the New Trump Tax Law Kary

    No debt and the same net pay with far less gross pay; IOWs I’m bringing in CASH and not paying it for entitlements. Lower tax bracket shift to my net=gross pay change….who cares, its only net pay that puts hamburgers on the table now [or pays real estate property taxes and maintenance]. I’ll find out the numbers after 2019….my retirements are complicated and the exact figures will be known then [its about a $3-4K increase in my net pay]. The biggest pay raise [before inflation allowance] I ever got in my life….

  219. 1219

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1213
    Its Indirect Money to Seattle Area Retirees and Everyone Else Too

    But its more money in your billfold; so vote it in….LOL…its safety recalls on your automobiles [a major net pay CASH expense]. As a retired Aerospace/Nuclear/Automotive Safety Engineer its in your favor if your car company fixes your car for future use. You aren’t stuck with the HORRIFYING cost later….i.e., that 2500 RPM stuck acceleration defect they never safety recalled on Toyotas is a COST time bomb in your garage waiting to explode? I imagine the Toyota maintenance shops are ramped up with plenty of refurbished computers and acceleration module maintenance inventory…get your honest safety recall now or pay me later….I had that stuck accelerator fixed on a 140,000 mile 1989 Chevy Corsica in 1997 [risking life and limb driving down a mountain when it happened]….the cost of the refurbished computer installed [these used computer parts are not always reliable BTW] is about $1-2K and the acceleration module is about $1K….

    The Toyota/Lexus defect is a HORRIFYING cost noose swinging over your head, besides a life threatening stuck 2500 RPM test drive trying to stop it when the computer/module [yes, ya have to replace both parts at the same time or the defect is passed on to the other] finally breaks [or doesn’t brake]….LOL….put it neutral when it happens and pray the hand brake works good enough…

  220. 1220
    AverageJoe says:

    @TheTim – repeat the headline, change the charts a little and update the last update date from April 24th to May 29th, and there we have a new post. Seattle remains the fastest growing real-estate market in March as well, according to just released case-shiller data.

  221. 1221
    N says:

    @ Deerhawke 1183 – Re: Inventory.

    You are right on, it sure does look like we are seeing a change in inventory levels. I posted the Friday numbers for the week before the holiday weekend and KC SFH were up around 21% YOY and condos were up even more, around 45% YOY.

    What is interesting is the trends are not the same in Piece and I suspect the other counties where they are still flat or down YOY

  222. 1222
    Doug says:

    Bears, don’t look at today’s CS data…

  223. 1223

    RE: Doug @ 1217 – Or posts 1211 and 1212. ;-)

    The most interesting thing is the MOM increase of 2.8%. That is huge given that it’s a 3 month moving average, but perhaps not surprising given the listings are selling for so much over list. I know list doesn’t mean much, but the amount of the difference is significant.

  224. 1224

    Seattle Real Estate Locations Near Cancerous Jet Fume SEATAC

    The tip of the Seattle Safety Engineering iceberg?

    Now its the new 5G iPhone cell towers they plan to put up soon to up megabites up on cell phones??? At a theater near you soon?

    http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2018/05/29/5g-cell-phone-service/

  225. 1225
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1191:

    I’ve never looked at Zillow’s financials until now, and I only did so because some people were making comments regarding tech companies losing money and investors accepting that, which is true. The only problem with that is Zillow isn’t a tech company, it’s an advertising company, but apparently they do lose money! How does an advertising company lose money????

    https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/zg/financials?query=income-statement

    It’s OK they make it up on volume.

  226. 1226
    Bubble Trouble says:

    Zillow works for cookie cutter homes in a subdivision. If there are 100 homes and all of them are within 10% of each other in sq ft, lot size, etc then Zillow can easily figure out what each house is worth based on recent sales. They are all basically the same house. But for custom built homes or homes with views or on a lake or what have you, Zillow is pretty useless IMO. House at 1000 Main St is worth $X. But house next door at 1010 Main St has an amazing view that 1000 doesn’t have. Zillow doesn’t know that and will either overvalue 1000 or undervalue 1010. Or 2 homes with the same lot, but one is nice and flat the other is steep. And a thousand other examples like that.

  227. 1227

    RE: Doug @ 1217

    That’s OK. We had our big helping of Bear Food from the Stock Market today. :) Real Estate is a lagging market and the stock market hasn’t given us clear direction yet. Bearish does not mean today…it means by next year or 18 mos out when we are talking real estate vs stocks and more liquid financial markets.

    I have three in escrow. One just closed an hour ago and sold AT asking, one closes mid June and had six offers and bid up 13% over asking and the most recent one went Pending Friday at more over asking than the one I just mentioned as to $ but less as to %.

    No clear direction and I’m still bearish.

  228. 1228
    uwp says:

    In other good/bad news, the bond markets have had some action the last few days. US 10-year is down under 2.80% today, which could relieve a little pressure on mortgage rates.

  229. 1229
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1222
    3 SFHs that I bid 10% more than the listing and did not get , got sold for ~170K more than the listing price. Couple of them did not even have the kitchen and bathrooms updated and really small. One of them had unbelievable 22 offers. Crazy!

  230. 1230

    RE: First Time Buyer @ 1224

    Would love links to those.

    You can always see what I’m doing and talking about here in the map and list of “Past Sales”.
    https://www.zillow.com/profile/ARDELL-DellaLoggia/

    It doesn’t show you ones that are still Pending or ones I wrote offers on that didn’t “win”. I’m curious to see if any of the ones you are talking about are ones I had a bid in on. As of Friday, all of my buyers have houses or are in Escrow. Not the investors. They are never “done”. :)

  231. 1231
    Doug says:

    RE: uwp @ 1223 – Down over 30 bps since mid-May. So much for those runaway mortgage rates I was promised.

  232. 1232
    Doug says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1222 – Stocks are also a laggard. Bonds are the only asset you need to listen to if you want directional cues. The curve has been getting pounded as of recent, but still has a ways to go before inverting. Smooth sailing ahead until that happens.

    I do you think your bearish position will be rewarded eventually, but for now you’re just early and early is still wrong. Still too many reasons to be bullish.

  233. 1233
    pfft says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1220:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1191:

    I’ve never looked at Zillow’s financials until now, and I only did so because some people were making comments regarding tech companies losing money and investors accepting that, which is true. The only problem with that is Zillow isn’t a tech company, it’s an advertising company, but apparently they do lose money! How does an advertising company lose money????

    https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/zg/financials?query=income-statement

    It’s OK they make it up on volume.

    I see what you did there. I hope others do to. zillow should just add crypto to it’s name…

  234. 1234
    pfft says:

    Home prices aren’t really going bonkers in the rest of the country.

    Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.5% year-over-year in March
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/05/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html

    Price to rent is reasonable.

    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oa2jl-JfGP8/Ww2l3ZtjPxI/AAAAAAAAvDc/9NZxB7IpdxwrZRreSKe_NtDxJhtkbQIXwCLcBGAs/s1600/PriceRentMar2018.PNG

  235. 1235
  236. 1236
    Ross says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1212:

    RE: ess @ 1211 – Here’s the Seattle Time’s story on the same news. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattles-climbing-home-prices-again-lead-the-nation/

    As to San Fransisco, the disaster stories about the effects of tax reform and deducting state & local taxes (SALT) and mortgage interest (MID) obviously are not coming true. California is probably the poster-child for high taxes, but the limits on deducting SALT are seemingly not having much of an impact. I would suspect that might be because people buying houses at SF’s price levels probably were having their MID limited by other provisions prior to the tax reform.

    It also could be that people don’t keep up on tax law changes, and won’t even know about this change until filing taxes this year. A surprising number of people don’t understand the current rules on selling a residence, and they have been in effect for over 20 years.

    It’s probably too early to really tell. There may be some shocks doing next year’s taxes for a subset of the population.

  237. 1237
    Bubble Trouble says:

    This is normal and in no way an insane maniacal bubble that will burst in spectacular fashion, right? It’s normal for a house to almost double in value in 5 months right? It increased more in 5 months than it had in the previous 22 years. Perfectly normal, sane market.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Redmond/15814-NE-112th-St-98052/home/325238

    Apr 24, 2018 – Sold $950,000
    Dec 4, 2017 – Sold $555,000
    Mar 22, 1995 – Sold $160,000

  238. 1238
    First Time Buyer says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1231
    This house never came to market in dec 2017. Not sure how they get sold. Auction?

  239. 1239
    SDE2 says:

    Another nerdy software engineer here, with family and kids, in our mid 30s. Wife quit job to take care of kids. We were shopping a SFH until we decided to buy a condo in 98053 two weeks back.

    The Seattle area housing market is outrageous and insane. We added 100k to 150k over asking and waived everything in Kirkland 98033 and 98006, but still got outbidded. Frustrated, the bidding war wored us down. It’s insane market, we moved to here from DC area. Seattle market is way hotter.

    I don’t expect to make money off our new home, but I think it will probably save us rent if it can appreciate 10 PCT or more when we sell it in 2-3 years.

  240. 1240
    David says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 1231 – This is a RENOVATED property.

    The inflation adjusted price from 1995 would be $264,777.81 in 2018. And now the house in newly redone.

    Also think how much the World has changed since 1995. Windows 95 was launched that year.

    Netscape Navigator was launched just 3 months earlier and the Internet was just getting started commercially.

  241. 1241

    By Bubble Trouble @ 1231:

    This is normal and in no way an insane maniacal bubble that will burst in spectacular fashion, right? It’s normal for a house to almost double in value in 5 months right? It increased more in 5 months than it had in the previous 22 years. Perfectly normal, sane market.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Redmond/15814-NE-112th-St-98052/home/325238

    Apr 24, 2018 – Sold $950,000
    Dec 4, 2017 – Sold $555,000

    I don’t even understand why you bother posting situations which are obvious flips, where the condition of the property obviously changed. That’s sort of pointless. It would be like complaining about how fast your new car depreciated after it was wrapped around a telephone pole. Condition matters to value.

    But since this thread is about Case-Shiller it probably should be pointed out that the two transactions you point to would not be used as a matched pair for Cash-Shiller. The value change indicates a clear change in condition.

    BTW, what you probably don’t know is that the buyer’s loan on the $555,000 transaction was for over $750,000, which is a likely indication of how much work they thought the property needed. Whether they spent less or more we’ll never know.

    Also, the $555,000 value may likely have been low because the property was not listed. So in its prior condition, it might have very well sold for more than $555,000. I’m not sure how the flipper found that one, since there were no signs of foreclosure, but they did and that created a good opportunity for them.

  242. 1242
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 1223:

    In other good/bad news, the bond markets have had some action the last few days. US 10-year is down under 2.80% today, which could relieve a little pressure on mortgage rates.

    The recent massive move in the bond market can be attributed to the current political situation in Italy/EU. U.S. 10 year treasury note yield jumped as much as 10 basis point this morning and the volatility will likely continue. The same volatility is seen in the currency market (EUR/USD), global stock markets, and gold prices. So if there is a crash in the bond markets, the global economy and asset prices will certainly be affected.

  243. 1243

    RE: wreckingbull @ 1203
    As an Engineer I Don’t Pay Attention to Can Names

    I can’t remember what product was used on my old “real” oak floors [my assistant contractor picked it out]….but it turned out beautiful and rugged [except chair scratches and all wood floors get ’em]…it was oil base and toxic…..LOL

    Home Depot should have many brand choices and I’d assume no contractor has tested them all anyway. Neighbors’ recommendations are more reliable with the same type of wood and flooring….

  244. 1244

    RE: Eastsider @ 1235 – The analysis of Italy is sort of interesting. It’s not just the same thing we saw with Greece a few years back. It’s more related to Brexit and the election of Trump, although Italy does have its own financial issues, which is undoubtedly part of what lead to that result.

    BTW, Bitcoin also stopped its slide on that news.

  245. 1245

    The Seattle Areas’ Biggest Employer Now Has Robot Replacements for Employees

    Service jobs at burger flipper joints:

    http://www.fox5ny.com/news/robot-chef-cooks-300-burgers-a-day#/

    Hades, even giving ’em $25/hr won’t stop the robots….it will speed robots up.

  246. 1246

    RE: Justme @ 1185
    They Call ’em Undocumented Immigrants

    How in the Hades can you count undocumented leaving Seattle? Tea leaves?….LOL

    My HOA did have more loose loans about 10 years ago and most of those poor families are gone now….what remains is mostly retired and Gen-X two income families…most Baby Boomers live in the upper tier neighborhoods with high property taxes or have left with no employment or retirement income. Most in my neighborhood are struggling with 30 year old home maintenance costs….some are putting off the sump pump replacement, but the broken source water valves [about $2K alone], hot water heater and impossible furnace repairs [blowers take 3 weeks to order]….leads to replacing furnaces too, you may need a 2nd mortgage to keep up. The phony exterior wood needs constant sealing, replacing and paint or it all rots in rainy Seattle….FAST too. Welcome to Seattle….bring CASH$$$$$….

  247. 1247
    Deerhawke says:

    First, I wonder if anyone has put in a missing person’s report on Tim. 1200+ posts on the same thread and no sign of him? Did he get a promotion? Have another kid? Move out of Seattle?

    Second, this past weekend there were people on the Greenlake trail with petitions for the initiative to repeal the head tax . There is always a petition of some sort there and most people usually just ignore the signature gatherers and walk on. Not this time. No kidding, there was an actual line to sign the petition. People were calling their friends over to get them to sign also. It was really an event.

    Given the left-of-center politics of the neighborhood, this is definitely not what I would have expected.

    That evening we were at a party where all of the people are politically to the left of me. I mentioned the line to sign the petition and said I thought it was quite telling. All the people there were against the head tax and there was a discussion about if you can sign the petiton online.

    I believe this petition is going to end up on the fall ballot. And I think it will pass. The only real question is whether the damage to Seattle’s business ecosystem has been done.

  248. 1248

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1240

    Tim appears to be alive and well. He bought an electric car which he reviewed on GeekWire on May 5th.

    He’s still very active in his personal twitter feed and even ranting about an overpriced home in his neighborhood on May 25th.

    May 26th tweet has a video of him and his firepit. He looks to be OK in the video from just a few days ago. :)

  249. 1249
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1241 – That Chevy Bolt article Tim wrote was way more interesting than Seattle RE these days, and I’m not any sort of EV enthusiast. Thanks for pointing that out. It was a good read. It’s been 12 years and I don’t blame him for winding things down here.

  250. 1250
    N says:

    @ Kary 1234 — In this environment you are right about flips and valuation increases, however there have been times where appraisals were much more stringent about these type of increases absent an increase in square feet, additional beds/baths.

    We sold a condo in another major city in 2014 and couldn’t get the appraiser to budge despite massive upgrades over comps that were apartment grade. The bottom line we kept getting was finishes don’t matter. Probably a by the book appraiser plus the fringe of a very different time following the massive appraisal fraud last decade.

    https://www.publicintegrity.org/2009/04/14/2895/appraisal-bubble

    is among dozens of appraisers who have told the Center for Public Integrity that for years lenders across the United States have pushed them into inflating the value of homes to justify higher mortgages. Appraisers and lenders alike are demanding better oversight of the industry. In addition, the Center has obtained copies of lenders’ “blacklists” containing the names of thousands of appraisers; some appraisers say lenders used those lists to exclude those who refused to inflate home values.

    Richard Frank, an appraiser in Vero Beach, Florida, started appraising homes in 1998, when values were climbing. From the beginning, Frank said he stepped into a business arrangement in which lenders forced appraisers to abandon their standards if they wanted work.

    Frank said lenders commonly gave appraisers an estimated value for a home on each appraisal order. Appraisers, who usually determine values by comparing homes to recent sales of comparable properties, often worked backwards from that estimated price to find recent real estate sales that would “make the value,” he said. Working backwards from the estimate was faster. Everyone made money. And since appraising homes is subjective — both an art and a science — it was easy to fudge numbers.

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