Case-Shiller: Seattle’s streak on top continues…

I’ll be posting the monthly stats preview data later today, but Case-Shiller was specifically requested, so here’s the latest update.

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to April data that was released last week, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 2.7 percent March to April
Up 13.1 percent year-over-year.
Up 30.8 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 2.6 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 12.9 percent.

Seattle still leads the nation in both year-over-year and month-over-month home price growth. Seattle has had the highest year-over-year price growth since September 2016. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier in April were Las Vegas at 12.7 percent and San Francisco at 10.9 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:


Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes has been at #1 for three months.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth is still the highest in the nation. The streak has been alive for twenty months.

Ten metro areas hit new all-time highs in April: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through April.


Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 129 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 30.8 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Here are a couple stories about this month’s numbers:

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2018-06-25)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

12 comments:

  1. 1
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    A couple decent homes in my area have been sitting for more than 2 weeks now, sign of the apocalypse? It’s enough to make a man think of upgrading.

  2. 2

    SWE’s MOM Investors Report for June 2018

    Jun 0.24% (0.10%) 0.61% 0.86% (1.20%)
    YTD 1.37% (1.56%) 2.63% 6.17% (2.44%)
    Last 12 mo 2.53% (0.27%) 14.34% 16.85% 7.25%

    Long-term CDs, Long-term Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks

    Good short-term news on interest rate long-term CD rates YTD…they tapered down 25% since May in extrapolation rate….meaning less pressure to up mortgage rates in 2019…and decrease Government to pay for the $21T federal debt. Bad news for savers. The YOY data will be the “fat lady sings”….so keep watching the data….Lord only knows what’s gonna happen by 2019. But you Seattle home owners looking to sell can sigh a slight breath of relief now…

    American Stocks got some relief too. The positive North Korea event helped there I’m sure.

    Speaking of North Korea, have any of you studied the Satellite photos of the missile production alleged “upgrades” since the June summit? The before and after look identical to me in rectangular building structure [unchanged], they did color some of the rectangles in blue and red with no upgrade to structures explained in writing or visible to me. Fake news too? Perhaps…

  3. 3
    Minnie says:

    RE: Wile E. Millenial @ 1

    One anecdotal comment deserves another; :-)

    I thought the market was really slowing down (seeing blips like you suggested above) but for every sign of a lapse, I see another two that make me go “wow…that went for HOW MUCH?!”.I toured a home that was listed for quite a bit I thought… it was ok/decent, but the finishes and quality were not the best and it had a very specific design aesthetic …I really thought it would not sell quickly, especially with what I’ve been reading on here. Well, it went on the offer review date, straight to pending. I’ll be interested in seeing what it goes for. I was truly surprised.

  4. 4
    CB says:

    Our house in Fairwood went on the market, as I’ve mentioned before, the beginning of June. We’ve dropped the price three times – so, now, it’s being listed at below $500k. In April / May, there were no homes within about a 5 mi. radius. Now, there are about 10 – 20! Prices range all over the map, too, but are somewhat neighborhood dependent. (We live in close radius to about three different neighborhoods, all with different price points.)

    Anyway, it certainly doesn’t look good in the Fairwood area. At least, not for us!

  5. 5
    Minnie says:

    Here’s an example of a home I have noticed is sitting (well, 11 days) and appears to be decent when I look at the photos.
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3431-39th-Ave-W-98199/home/127197

    On first glance, curb appeal is there, it has an attached garage, looks to be somewhat updated. I’m not going to comment on the actual finishes, etc because it gets pretty taste specific, but the kitchen appears quite small.

    List price of $950,000 at 2340 sf is $406/sf, which is pretty reasonable for the neighborhood. but then the unfinished square footage is 540 sf, making the finished square footage of the house 1800 sf, which is now $527 sf. I can’t see any unfinished square footage from the photos to indicate its a basement (could be) but it could also be the garage? I didn’t think that used to be typical practice to include the garage but I think that some agents are doing that now (Kary and Ardell weigh in?)

    Also, recent comps show that other homes within a few blocks in better condition have sold recently for less….100K less as in this example https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3417-39th-Ave-W-98199/home/128572 (home has no garage, just a carport but could be converted to garage for a lot less than 100K!) and this home has an extra .25 bath.

    I think that in this case, my point is that overpriced homes are still sitting. And we’ve been so conditioned to seeing an “okay” 3 bed, 1.75 bath home for almost a million dollars that its difficult to immediately identify (at least for me it is).

    But it will likely still sell for list and I’m betting a little more than list ($975K…any betters?!)

  6. 6

    RE: CB @ 4 – Well now at least I know what CB stands for! ;-)

    Good luck!

  7. 7

    RE: Minnie @ 5

    Not sure where you are getting the “unfinished 540 sf” from. The AsBuilt including garage is 2,600. County records showing 1,170 on the main and 1,170 finished basement, so 2,340 of finished “house” looks correct to me. The other Cedar Shake Roof sale nearby on Bertona earlier this year makes this price look about right. Not too high or low, so not surprising it didn’t bid up the way Bertona did. Earlier in the year people were pricing lower (based on last year’s comps) and selling fast with bid ups. This time of year people are using the high bid up price as asking price comps, so normal for it to taper off by third quarter.

    I’m not saying there is no change and I’ve often said this or next season will be the end of the run up. But that house doesn’t offer anything surprising as to market condition even if it takes a bit longer to sell. It’s not a “3 bedrooms on one level” home, so the time on market looks pretty normal.

  8. 8

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 7:

    RE: Minnie @ 5

    Not sure where you are getting the “unfinished 540 sf” from. The AsBuilt including garage is 2,600.

    At first I thought that was a typo, because the garage is 260, but the 2,340 finished and 260 garage add up to 2,600. Not sure if that’s what you’d call a coincidence, since they aren’t the same, but being a multiple of 10 is odd.

  9. 9
  10. 10
    Minnie says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 7
    “Not sure where you are getting the “unfinished 540 sf” from. ”

    When I scroll down to the “public facts” this is what I see:
    Finished Sq. Ft. 1,800
    Unfinished Sq. Ft. 540
    Total Sq. Ft. 2,340

    but this could be old, from the tax records and has since been finished. But that is what I was looking at.

    I think given the square footage, this is priced low…but it also looks out of date. But either way its now pending.

  11. 11

    RE: Minnie @ 10RE: Minnie @ 10

    I find that the County interface that Redfin and Zillow uses often comes up with errors. If that IS what the county says, then the improvements are made without permits. But that isn’t what the County says in this case. When it matters, don’t just do the scroll down method. Go directly to the King County Parcel Viewer. It shows correctly there.

  12. 12
    David says:

    Why not pull it from the market until this settles down?

    Also, where are all these people with houses going on the market going to move?

    By CB @ 4:

    Our house in Fairwood went on the market, as I’ve mentioned before, the beginning of June. We’ve dropped the price three times – so, now, it’s being listed at below $500k. In April / May, there were no homes within about a 5 mi. radius. Now, there are about 10 – 20! Prices range all over the map, too, but are somewhat neighborhood dependent. (We live in close radius to about three different neighborhoods, all with different price points.)

    Anyway, it certainly doesn’t look good in the Fairwood area. At least, not for us!

    Where are all these people with houses going on the market going to move?

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