NWMLS: Listings surge as sales and prices soften a bit

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June market stats were published by the NWMLS last week. Here’s a quick look at the home salesperson spin via their press release:

Brokers seeing “simple economic recipe for a softening housing market”

Home buyers around many parts of Washington state had more choices and less competition during June, prompting some industry leaders to comment on “a feeling of change in the market.”

“Inventory is up and demand has dropped,” reported Robert Wasser, an officer with the board of directors at Northwest Multiple Listing Service. That combination is “a pretty simple economic recipe for a softening market,” he added in commenting on the latest MLS statistics.

“Although still a quick response market, with more new listings coming on the market during the summer months, we experienced dispersed buyer energy due to the greater availability and selection,” stated J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.

No need for alarm! It’s just a “simple economic recipe”!

Anyway, let’s look at the actual numbers.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

June 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 3,718 +27.7% +42.9%
Closed Sales 2,758 +11.5% -4.6%
SAAS (?) 1.46 -8.5% +6.8%
Pending Sales 2,977 -10.1% -12.2%
Months of Supply 1.35 +14.5% +49.8%
Median Price* $715,000 -1.6% +9.5%

The big news in this month’s numbers is yet again the big bump in total on-market inventory. That said, prices look like they’re beginning to soften as well, which is unusual for what is normally the hottest time of year for price gains.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory rose twenty-eight percent from May to June, and was up forty-three percent from last year. We’re definitely forming an interesting trend now. This year has seen listings building up a lot faster than any recent year. Meanwhile, sales are softening, too…

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up two percent from a year ago, but dipped slightly from the record high level posted in May.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales rose eleven percent between May and June. Last year over the same period closed sales were up about the same. Year-over-year closed sales were down five percent.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales were down ten percent from May to June, and were down twelve percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The recent surge in listings is extremely evident in the above chart. June saw the largest year-over-year listings increase since April 2008.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year home price movement dipped back below ten percent again.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

It’s interesting to me that we’ve been flat to slightly down since April. That’s a pretty big deviation from normal years. Between 2000 and 2017, April to June has seen an average gain of 3.5 percent. Over the last six years the lowest gain we’ve seen over those months was 4.2 percent. This year prices fell 1.4 percent. Very curious.

May 2018: $715,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: Market shift? Big spike in Seattle-area homes for sale slows price growth

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

610 comments:

  1. 251
    David B. says:

    RE: Joe_Clave @ 243 – Yes, it was meant for you, not Matt.

  2. 252

    Another sign that people who “missed the boat” by listing their homes too late in the last burst bubble cycle are seeing now as the time to get in front of it this time.

    The Brady Bunch House is for sale.

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/11222-Dilling-Street-STUDIO-CITY-California_rb/

    The listing ad copy sounds as if it is the first time it has “come to market” in almost 50 years. But the history detail shows that they listed it, unsuccesfully, for $2M back in 2008.

    They only used the outside for the show, so don’t be surprised if you don’t recognize the inside.

  3. 253
    pfft says:

    And so it begins?

    California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 13 Percent YoY in June
    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/07/california-bay-area-home-sales-decline.html

    I saw PHX has YOY sales declines too. not good. that god we have a very stable genius in the WH.

  4. 254
    pfft says:

    By David @ 225:

    Thank you for your Trump endorsement.

    By Joe_Clave @ 221:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 209

    “Nah. Even the U6 is at an almost all time low. All the unemployment indicators (including underemployed, discouraged, blah, blah, blah). People are working. “

    Trump said the numbers are faked.

    Donald Trump says the unemployment rate may be 42 percent
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/30/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-unemployment-rate-may-be-42-perc/

  5. 255

    One other possibility for fewer buyers would be the Seattle Times article a few weeks back. I did ask one new client if they had read that, and after they said yes I told them to totally forget everything they read. They are now in contract and nothing went as indicated in that article. The best part of that article was noting that the highest offer is not necessarily the best offer. We recently won a bidding situation for another client where our offer was $5,000 less than the highest (and it escalated even further) and that other buyer had done a pre-inspection. Nice waste of time and money on their part!

  6. 256

    RE: pfft @ 246
    Trump is Mad at His New Fed Chairman

    For increasing federal rates [impacting mortgage interest too]….feels it will eat into the current booming GDP growth. Pffft….Trump is on your side now….LOL

    Trump ignores the party line rules in favor of doing his opinion planning on our budget with trade issues constantly changing with China and EU [old American budget history never had tariff impacts the last decades, so is not applicable now?]…softening any negative impact for a money supply growing like crazy from the tax decreases. Federal tax revenue has never been higher BTW since tax cuts….LOL

  7. 257
    Deerhawke says:

    A few weeks away from Seattle helps to give some perspective on what is happening here.

    It is kind of amazing how truly few homeless you see in some major European cities.

    Seeing the article in the Seattle Times about how Ballard is overrun with homeless people is quite a contrast. Then this morning I had to run down to Pioneer square to drop off some paperwork and while parking was accosted by a truly filthy man with no shirt, dreadlocks and a booming voice who told me I could not park in his space without paying him. (“But wait… I was already paying the City, ” I thought.) Getting out and threatening him with bear spray certainly got his attention and changed his tune, but is this the kind of thing what we can expect in a civilized city?

    Paulie, thanks for your enlightening posts at 182, 184, and 189. Keep it up.

    David B. most people on this site long ago learned to ignore softwareengineer and David. They are our local tin-foil-hatted cranks. I find it touching that you think they are still educable when what they really want is a bombastic leader who can tell them what to believe.

    Kary @ 166, 177 & 172 and UWP @ 173. Good posts. This is a useful way to look at the numbers and I agree. I continue to be bullish in the long term about Seattle, but cautious in the short term. I think what we are seeing right now is the market over-correcting a bit after a long, long period of supply scarcity. I remain pessimistic in the medium term, specifically 2020 when I think we will see a lack of confidence and a national recession during a contentious election year.

  8. 258
  9. 259
    Doug says:

    RE: Doug @ 250 – I find the title of this article to be pretty funny. Socialist hellhole? Come on. Sure, there are aspects of Seattle that lean too far left for my liking, but something feels strange about calling any city within a state of zero income tax a ‘socialist hellhole’.

    I’m sure it’s pure coincidence that the 2 richest men in the world happen to live in such a hellhole. Granted, they live on the east side and maybe the article is really just defining the hellhole to be within the Seattle city boundaries.

    If there was ever a true socialist hellhole I can tell you that place is called California.

  10. 260
    David says:

    RE: Doug @ 251 – Because they have switched from income tax to direct tax. Same outcome.

  11. 261
    David says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 249 – But Deerhawke thinks Obama would be rich outside of politics. Because he fantasizes that way.

  12. 262
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 249 – “I think what we are seeing right now is the market over-correcting a bit after a long, long period of supply scarcity.” – Deerhawke

    In the midst of an “Over-correction” – Don’t know where to even begin with that thought other than maybe someone can offer some suggestion as to what that means? Homes selling at 98% of suggested retail? Price reductions? Time on market increasing? Consumer debt loads at super hypoxic levels supplemented additionally by FOMO?

  13. 263
    pfft says:

    By Doug @ 251:

    RE: Doug @ 250 – I find the title of this article to be pretty funny. Socialist hellhole? Come on. Sure, there are aspects of Seattle that lean too far left for my liking, but something feels strange about calling any city within a state of zero income tax a ‘socialist hellhole’.

    I’m sure it’s pure coincidence that the 2 richest men in the world happen to live in such a hellhole. Granted, they live on the east side and maybe the article is really just defining the hellhole to be within the Seattle city boundaries.

    If there was ever a true socialist hellhole I can tell you that place is called California.

    I was there about 6 months ago looked pretty nice. Been 4 or 5 times and it’s been nice every time. can’t complain.

  14. 264

    RE: pfft @ 255
    California, Let’s See I was Last There in 2009

    The condo I rented over charged me and I needed to credit dispute the over charge. The traffic is so bad in Hollywood you have no where to park and they fine you because the no parking signs are ambiguous too.

    When I checked in to my rental….it took 3 hours to find someone with a key to the door and no way to get into the office anyway…..the door was locked and no one answered my banging. That always brings a smile to your face on vacation….LOL….they couldn’t get the door to my unit open anyway, they lost the key.

    Other than that, things went smooth for me…LOL

  15. 265

    By S-Crow @ 254:

    In the midst of an “Over-correction” – Don’t know where to even begin with that thought other than maybe someone can offer some suggestion as to what that means? Homes selling at 98% of suggested retail? Price reductions? Time on market increasing? Consumer debt loads at super hypoxic levels supplemented additionally by FOMO?

    The term “over-correction” assumes that there is a correct price. It’s almost synonymous with over or under-valued. All are practically meaningless terms.

    I would caution against just looking at whether the mean and/or median is going up or down. As was the case several months ago, that can jump significantly just due to a change in mix.

    What I’ve been planning on doing, but having had the ambition to do, is look at a narrow group of homes in a narrow area to see if their selling price has changed, and also to see if the price I would list them has changed. The difference relates to what I’ve mentioned previously about some houses being bid up significantly and also some transaction prices being outliers. I’ll post the results if I get around to it someday.

  16. 266

    By pfft @ 255:

    By Doug @ 251:

    If there was ever a true socialist hellhole I can tell you that place is called California.

    I was there about 6 months ago looked pretty nice. Been 4 or 5 times and it’s been nice every time. can’t complain.

    Not the most shocking news–that pfft would like California. ;-)

  17. 267

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 258
    LOL Kary….The Open Border Party reminds me of self mutilation or whipping yourself…

    If its bad, its really good….LOL

    How are the other Sanctuary Cities Doing Today?

    New York City can’t sell even their cheap homes anymore:

    http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20180720/REAL_ESTATE/180729989

    Los Angeles losing all its employers as unemployment falls and job growth is simultaneously flat?:

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-california-jobs-20180720-story.html

    Maybe Seattle won’t catch up with them for a couple years or so…my fingers are crossed…LOL

  18. 268

    RE: S-Crow @ 254
    Speaking of Bad Debt Timing

    Have you noticed we welcome our veterans home by offering them special Veteran 2nd mortgages to assure they have money for cash now? How about giving ’em jobs Microsoft instead? LOL

    I spoke to a retiree about 10 years ago who upped her debt another $250K for Seattle Real Estate at retirement…I politely warned her IMO that was not a good retirement plan on a fixed income [she had that Seattle is a “Good Bet Look” in her hypnotized eyes, no matter what the costs]. I sure hope she doesn’t get disabled and sick, who’s gonna clean it and be her care giver for less than say, $50-100K/yr cash? I do my own house husband work to take care of just me and its well worth $50-100K/yr cash….its a full time job too.

    The haughty man goeth before the fall…

  19. 269

    On a Lighter Note

    Even without credible Safety Engineering in their Japanese nuclear meltdowns, the toxic Cesium 130 isotope is in California wine now…imagine how bad it really is in Japan. IMO their life expectancy over there went way down after the meltdowns and I’m an American nuclear engineer.

    News today:

    “…Areas of Fukushima are still strictly off limits to humans due to toxic levels of radiation.

    Last year, terrifying pictures emerged of raging packs of contaminated wild boars that live in the exclusion zone.

    Poachers were drafted in to slaughter the terrifying creatures after they started roaming around surrounding towns….”

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/718016/fukushima-nuclear-disaster-california-wine

    Check out the pictures of the monster mutant pigs in Japan near the reactor meltdowns…its like a science fiction horror movie….only its real.

  20. 270
    Brian says:

    How come median $/sqft isn’t used as a metric for home prices? Seems more reliable than median sale price since that can be affected by area and home type.

  21. 271
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 261 – I love how the Japanese routinely trot out ‘radiation’ effected people from WW2 who are in their late 80s and 90s now. It seems to be killing them as they approach 100.

    Poor souls.

    Now they are suffering from the effects of acid rain, global cooling, the disastrous ozone hole, goblal cooling, global warming, climate change, ….

    Only eventually to be killed off for sure by a huge radioactive chicken little.

  22. 272
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 258 – He was just transitting through from Thailand.

  23. 273
    wreckingbull says:

    By Brian @ 262:

    How come median $/sqft isn’t used as a metric for home prices? Seems more reliable than median sale price since that can be affected by area and home type.

    I think the best approach is to take a composite of metrics, and create your own personal index, based on your own biases.

    Here is what I include

    • P/E – How much would your home rent for? How much over this do you view as an ‘ownership premium’? For example: I am comfortable paying 120% the of gross income the property would create when rented on the open market. In 2008, I rented a home for 40% of what it would have cost to own. That signaled a BIG problem, and indeed, it was.
    • Long-term mean. How far off the trendline are we at any given moment? The C/S index uses same-home sales, so I feel this covers your price/square foot question.
    • Tim’s affordability index posted here periodically, as this accounts for wage increases.

    Lastly, I urge people to envision a worst-case financial situation for their family. If you lost a job for 18 months, could you easily hang onto the place and not have to mail in the keys and/or destroy your credit history? Use your budget, savings, and forecast unemployment benefit figure in this calculation.

    I’ll add a footnote to that last comment. Older people who have been through the ups and downs of high-tech know that 18 month unemployment for very talented engineers does occur. I witnessed it. I do hope that all these rich high-tech Amazon/Google/Facebook employees know that stormy times eventually come and they are planning for this. Maybe this is not a problem, but I certainly would not want to be living in a 1-2 million dollar home when things go pear-shaped, as they always eventually do.

  24. 274

    By Brian @ 262:

    How come median $/sqft isn’t used as a metric for home prices? Seems more reliable than median sale price since that can be affected by area and home type.

    $ per square foot isn’t useful for much of anything! And I don’t know why you don’t think it wouldn’t be affected by area and home type. It’s also affected by home size.

  25. 275
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 258:

    By pfft @ 255:

    By Doug @ 251:

    If there was ever a true socialist hellhole I can tell you that place is called California.

    I was there about 6 months ago looked pretty nice. Been 4 or 5 times and it’s been nice every time. can’t complain.

    Not the most shocking news–that pfft would like California. ;-)

    who doesn’t like 60 or even 70 degree weather in during the winter? Beaches are nice too. ocean sunsets…

  26. 276
    pfft says:

    By David @ 264:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 258 – He was just transitting through from Thailand.

    dirty david is back. nobody needs your dirty comments. go away.

  27. 277
    David B. says:

    By Deerhawke @ 249:

    David B. most people on this site long ago learned to ignore softwareengineer and David. They are our local tin-foil-hatted cranks. I find it touching that you think they are still educable when what they really want is a bombastic leader who can tell them what to believe.

    I have to admit there are times when I take pleasure in not suffering fools gladly. For a while. Until it gets old. Then I lapse back into just ignoring them for a while.

  28. 278
    Justme says:

    It’s Saturday night, perhaps a good time to look at the inventory again. As has been commonplace recently, the KC/SFH inventory peaked on Friday night

    07.20.2018 20:00 3970 (up 171 from 3799 last week)
    11.16.2014 01:00 3974 (last time inventory exceeded current value)

    We are at a 3yr8mo peak. Time for the bubble-mongers to hit the keyboard with more soothing tales of market stability. But time for recalcitrant sellers to get cracking on getting their listings out.

  29. 279
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justme @ 270 – I saw 4 open house signs in my neighborhood today. That hasn’t happened in a long while. Maybe the market is finally back to ‘normal’? In any case, we are probably at/past the peak of this selling season and sales/prices will likely go down from here (- seasonality).

    I also came across some interesting Bay Area numbers –

    – Sales of homes priced at less than $1 million fell at the fastest rate seen in two years, down by 28 percent, driven by 50 percent drops in San Mateo and Santa Clara counties.
    – Sales of homes priced above $1 million continued to grow; however, June’s increase was the smallest seen in a year.

    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/07/california-bay-area-home-sales-decline.html

    Perhaps this explains why Trump is upset about the rate hike. An average homebuyer cannot afford both increasing prices and mortgage rates at the same time. Duh!

  30. 280
    northender says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 271
    Yes, I’m seeing some more open houses in my neighborhood too. But I don’t see prices going down.

    About that link – if there are fewer sales priced below 1M but sales over 1M continued to grow, doesn’t that imply that prices are continuing to rise in the Bay Area?

    As far as I know rates have been pretty stable.

    I grew up in the south bay, when I was little my parents had 3 rentals but sold them to send kids to private school. It was the early 80’s and rates were crazy. But if they had kept them, wow, the rental income that would be coming in! My best friend from high school down there tells me his parents are getting ready to sell their house for about 3M. I’ve been saying this since about 2013, Seattle won’t ever be like the Bay Area but I think real estate here will track what’s happening there.

  31. 281
    David says:

    By pfft @ 268:

    By David @ 264:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 258 – He was just transitting through from Thailand.

    dirty david is back. nobody needs your dirty comments. go away.

    They should search your sickness before judging me. That search function is a beast of judgment.

  32. 282
    David says:

    It seems to me that Redfin has FAR fewer HOT HOMES showing. Maybe people are just on vacation and the market will pick up, but I don’t see how things could not have slowed down.

    Also, the local political climate here has been working overtime to kill the market with massive property tax increases and belligerent bullying of business. Inflaming the citizenry and even getting noticed nationally for it. A Mayor who was given a five-kid head start before he was removed from office. A new mayor who is feckless and again pre-occupied with looking like a lion killer on national, as opposed to local, issues. A new mayor with ZERO chance of doing anything nationally meaningful because no one in the country wants to be associated with the Seattle political fools.

    And those MASSIVE tax increases are really causing trouble for a lot of people. All for a train that goes about as fast as a bus.

  33. 283
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 270

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-20/in-new-york-city-even-the-cheapest-homes-are-waiting-for-buyers

    You are right. Even in NYC, apartments under $1MM are really starting to pile up. The price chart looks a little toppy, and the inventory chart….. I can’t tell if it looks more like 2006 or 2007. What do you think?
    5 more years, or 6 more years until Justme can feel comfortable buying a house?

  34. 284
    Eastsider says:

    By northender @ 272:

    About that link – if there are fewer sales priced below 1M but sales over 1M continued to grow, doesn’t that imply that prices are continuing to rise in the Bay Area?

    I think what we are witnessing is that there are 2 markets – one for the high income and one for everyone else. If the lower end market stalls/collapses, it will eventually bring down the whole market. In 2007, the subprime collapse caused the bubble to burst.

  35. 285

    RE: David @ 263
    Thank God the WWII Nukes Weren’t North Korean Hydrogen Bombs, just Puny Fission Bombs

    10 times worse. The Cesium 130 isotope stays around a few decades….but the plutonium never goes away for billions of years…the ground water gets more disrupted with nuclear meltdowns that can bore for miles into the Earth’s core…meltdowns have never hit Japan to date.

    You can’t compare bombs to reactors’ contaminations.

  36. 286

    RE: David @ 274
    Yes David

    Everyone is on “staycation” in Seattle lately? Our roads are horribly jammed even on weekdays from 10A-1P lately….or did we all lose our jobs suddenly? LOL

    You can’t get to Tacoma at 2P in the afternoon on I-5…its a 1 hour parking lot on a Wednesday…

  37. 287

    RE: David B. @ 269
    Yes David Doing Nothing is the Best Course

    Always blame the ones who want to fix it…I’d be happy and homeless with that attitude today, LOL…

  38. 288

    Two (point 5) random thoughts.

    1. I wonder if the inventory uptick was caused by the recent RE tax increases. The timing is seemingly about right after you account for time to act and that could have been the motivation for some to sell (not realizing that part of the increase is temporary). 1.5–This could also impact some buyers and even keep some marginal buyers out of the market.

    2. I’ve commented repeatedly that the economy is not doing as well as we’re being told because wages are not increasing. But maybe part of the reason for that is mergers. Historically mergers have been stopped when they think the merger will result in higher prices due to less competition. But mergers also mean employers have less competition for their employees. That’s part of the reason the local grocery stores joined together as a collective bargaining unit (before there basically were only two such companies). This obviously doesn’t work across all industries (e.g. tech), but it’s probably especially true in others (eg. retail).

  39. 289
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 271
    Bring back the NINJA loans!

  40. 290

    I still haven’t done the full analysis of what I wanted to do–zoning in on a specific type of house in a specific neighborhood to see how values have changed very recently, but I did do a quick look.

    What I noticed is that sales for a recent two month period (5/15-7/15) were fairly flat YOY, but prices were up considerably. Most noticeable was that over half the actives had price reductions in their history, compared to less than a third of the pending listings. None of the sold listings had price reductions in the 2017 period, but almost 40% did in 2018.

    This supports my theory that agents have had a hard time pricing in this market due to bidding wars. Again, if a house listed for $500,000 sells for $570,000, that is a pretty useless comp for pricing a new listing. All you know is $500,000 was probably too low, but maybe at $520,000 it would have sat, or sold for $520,000.

    Numbers in second paragraph from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS. Numbers in third paragraph are completely hypothetical.

  41. 291
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 278 – I had to take my RV into Fife for warranty service last week and I just got up and left at 4:30AM to beat the traffic. The RV place was wondering why I was there at opening.

    You really cannot use an RV in Seattle easily because the place is covered up with urban outdoorsman. Drawn to Seattle and its myriad policies that reward and encourage vagrancy. The police feel obligated to harass even casual RVs.

  42. 292
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: David @ 283 – You are not wrong. This guy got a $1500 permit from the city so he could guard his construction site. No bueno. If he was shooting up heroin, he would have been fine.

    http://mynorthwest.com/1046331/construction-worker-rv-ticket/?

  43. 293
    Notme says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 284

    Well, I do suppose the RV owner could have left a copy of the permit visible inside the windshield or at the side door window, and thereby avoided the ticket? On the other hand, all these 1st world problems can be fixed by bombing Iran. Everyone knows that.

  44. 294
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Notme @ 285 – Do you leave things in plain sight in a vehicle in Seattle? If so, you won’t for long.

  45. 295
    Notme says:

    RE: David @ 283

    Those filthy RV dwellers choose to live in RVs because Socialist Seattle makes it so easy for them to do so. If only they understood that they should be parking in North Everett, like normal people do, and commute by train for their daily fix of Bezo-Ball shining or whatever other mind-altering activities they engage in. Damn RV socialists! It’s unfair! Everyone knows that.

  46. 296
    Notme says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 286

    I have a tricycle with a hanger full of recyclables. It is plain and in sight. I have learned my lesson. Everyone knows that.

  47. 297
    Notme says:

    RE: Erik @ 281

    >>Bring back the NINJA loans!

    You don’t qualify for a NINJA loan Erik, YET!! All your loans are of the NYAH-NYAH-NYAH variety. As long as it lasts. Everyone knows that.

  48. 298
    David says:

    By Notme @ 285:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 284

    Well, I do suppose the RV owner could have left a copy of the permit visible inside the windshield or at the side door window, and thereby avoided the ticket? On the other hand, all these 1st world problems can be fixed by bombing Iran. Everyone knows that.

    If it costs $1,500, might get stolen.

  49. 299
    Notme says:

    RE: David @ 290

    A little slow on the uptake today, are we? But then, everyone knew that.

  50. 300
    David says:

    RE: Notme @ 291 – You must remember that folks born before 1975 have an average of about 14 points higher IQ than the current generation. I’m not playing chess to your checkers, I’m playing on a level your generation cannot attain!

  51. 301
    KillianM says:

    What signs are you looking for in the coming months that would indicate we are headed towards a more affordable housing market?

  52. 302

    Since the off-topic Nathan Robinson article I posted earlier was seemingly popular, I thought I’d post this off-topic piece on the same website (where Robinson is the editor) by a different author. It deals with putting Russian meddling in context, but it doesn’t mention the biggest purveyors of false information–the Democratic & Republican parties, and the multiple PACs and SuperPacs that support them. Instead it mainly deals with other government meddling, including by us.

    https://www.currentaffairs.org/2018/07/its-time-for-a-little-perspective-on-russia

  53. 303

    RE: Notme @ 285
    Stop Changing the Topic from Trump Chicken Heart in Russia Trying to Negotiate Peace

    To banging war drums against Russia/Iran to obstruct negotiations….then getting mad at Trump for offending the Iran war drums [with an Obama cash load of money on a 737 to pay off the Iran Mafia]….make up your mind, ya can’t have it both in opposing view ways at the same time just to try to impeach Trump.

    Rally behind your sorry Socialist Candidates nobody likes at all….its all you open border party have….LOL

  54. 304

    RE: David @ 292
    You Sound Like My Kind of Guy

    They measured my IQ and although it was flattering, I had an advantage no one does today in Seattle….I grew up next to a 2500 acres of forest in Alderwood Manor…built tree houses, cabins in the woods, road dirt bikes, rode horses and was raised on a farm….that’s how ya become smart. Elbow room and time to dream.

  55. 305
  56. 306

    RE: softwarengineer @ 296
    I Hear IPhone Use Causes Memory Loss From Its EMF Burst

    Laptops and apocalyptic videos dummifying Americans too? Overpopulation is for sure.

    https://www.studyfinds.org/great-indoors-screen-hungry-kids-video-games-going-outside/

    Big back yards are needed for childhood IQ development, not public schools omitting math/science in favor of English as a second language training….wake up schools! I know, we reduce illegal immigration and your job security as teachers in this NWO goes way down….who cares? LOL

  57. 307

    RE: David @ 283
    RV Hatred in Seattle?

    I hear from my friends in Tacoma that RV spots in the Seattle area [even trailer courts] are all but banned now….the NWO hates any kind of affordable housing for the elderly and poor? LOL

  58. 308
    uwp says:

    By David @ 292:

    RE: Notme @ 291 – You must remember that folks born before 1975 have an average of about 14 points higher IQ than the current generation. I’m not playing chess to your checkers, I’m playing on a level your generation cannot attain!

    You have to remember that folks born before new rules regarding lead use went into effect in the 1970’s are more likely to develop learning disabilities, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and problems with impulse control. Those conditions likely influence personality traits and behavioral choices, with examples including having poor job performance, beginning a pattern of substance abuse, and undergoing teenage pregnancy.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead-crime_hypothesis

    As boomers shuffle on, America will likely become a better place.

  59. 309
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 293:

    It deals with putting Russian meddling in context, but it doesn’t mention the biggest purveyors of false information–the Democratic & Republican parties, and the multiple PACs and SuperPacs that support them. Instead it mainly deals with other government meddling, including by us.

    No election interference or collusion…
    Well, some foreign interference, but the US does it too, and no collusion anyway…
    OK, some minor players colluded, but it had no effect…
    Yeah, sure, we colluded, but it was worth it to stop Hillary…
    We were smart to collude.

  60. 310

    By uwp @ 300:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 293:

    It deals with putting Russian meddling in context, but it doesn’t mention the biggest purveyors of false information–the Democratic & Republican parties, and the multiple PACs and SuperPacs that support them. Instead it mainly deals with other government meddling, including by us.

    No election interference or collusion…
    Well, some foreign interference, but the US does it too, and no collusion anyway…
    OK, some minor players colluded, but it had no effect…
    Yeah, sure, we colluded, but it was worth it to stop Hillary…
    We were smart to collude.

    I think the point is more that it’s: (1) Hypocritical; and (2) The interference was insignificant in the scheme of things. Also, maybe I missed it, but I doubt that writer is right-wing and said anything about Hillary–that publication tends to be rather left-wing.

    Now the related issue of Russia trying to hack voting systems, that is important, and that should be a concern. But to worry a few hundred thousand dollars of Facebook ads were pushed by Russians is absurd given the false information pushed by both the candidates, the parties, the PACs and SuperPacs and the networks. Given that other stuff the Russian effort had about the same effect as throwing a stone in the ocean. The Russians accomplished much more due to all the focus being placed on it after the fact. They’re now wasting our time and diverting our focus, and probably laughing their asses off at our stupidity.

    Edit: I checked and the only reference to Hillary was her prior supporting our own interference in two matters. And it does support looking into whether the Trump campaign was complicit, which is yet another matter.

  61. 311
    uwp says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 301
    Yeah, I’m just preparing everyone for the coming narratives.

    To call the Russian interference “insignificant” while the investigation is still ongoing is premature.

    Facebook advertising may or may not have had an effect, but you (and the article) noticeably left out the hacking of the DNC + Wikileaks strategic leaking of emails. Along with the non-stop hyperventilating the press did about the emails.

    Wikileaks has pretended to be a neutral actor in all this, but the information from the Mueller indictments shows that they were actively soliciting Clinton dirt from Russian hackers, and releasing it timed to damage her campaign (specifically around the convention when the party was trying to heal the Clinton-Sanders rift).

    In an election decided by less than 1% in three states, any small effect was a tipping point. Including Bernie-Supporters just staying home.

  62. 312

    RE: uwp @ 302 – I agree Wikileaks is yet another matter. And as to Wikileaks I’ve even distinguished them from Snowden (the latter in a more favorable light).

    But as to just advertising type of things I don’t think it’s premature. They would have had to have spent over $1B given all the other spending/publicity/news coverage, or else they’re in the wrong profession. They should become advertisers! ;-)

  63. 313
    sfrz says:

    RE: uwp @ 302 – Use the “but for” clause. But for Clinton’s “dirt,” there would be no leaks. But for her private server to accommodate her intense Nixonian need to hide her communications, there would be no dirt to conjure. Anyone asking WHY she felt the need to bleach clean her emails? Anyone notice that the Russian hysteria (that’s what it is) has been whipped up inside the beltway as a means to divert? No one had this Russian hysteria until this last election. There were foreign actors involved. No fingers pointing at Israel, Saudi Arabia, Britain. Why is that?

  64. 314

    RE: sfrz @ 304 – As I’ve mentioned before, my cat Rocky ran for President on Facebook. He had fun with Hillary’s emails.

    5/26/16: Rocky spent all of yesterday laughing when he read this: “Mrs. Clinton wrote: ‘Let’s get separate address or device but I don’t want any risk of the personal [emails] being accessible.” Rocky would like to remind voters that he is not the candidate who had all virtually all their emails released because they used a private server, when their reason for using the server was to keep emails private. Not a great result from a decision.

    Of course the main reason for the security of Rocky’s emails is that he’s never used email.

    But my favorite humor on Hillary’s emails is Biden’s reaction when he discovered how the “new” emails were discovered.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdCuDF4u5Yg 48 second mark.

  65. 315
    David says:

    No one watched the Russians. They did watch Trump though doing his huge rallies. No one showed up to Hillary’s rallies.

    One person is responsible for Trump winning – and that is Trump. Who worked his a$$ off.

    Meanwhile, Hillary always looked like she had just finished taking a huge dump at some low brow Mexican cantina and had to turn on a belt driven fan after starting the emergency generator.

  66. 316
    uwp says:

    sfrz and Kary,

    Hillary’s server was not hacked. The DNC was hacked. Ironically, while the State Department was hacked, Hillary’s private server was not. Perhaps she had good security?

    The fact that people still make these conflations, show what a horrible job the press did with their coverage, even while the “emails” coverage drowned out basically every other aspect of the 2016 race.

  67. 317
    Matt P says:

    Comments have once again devolved into political innanity. Time to check out until next month’s update.

  68. 318
    Paulie says:

    RE: David @ 298

    The current generation is doing a good job. Every old grumpy man believes that the current generation is ruining the world, oldest cliche in grumpy old man history. And yet by and large, each generation swells with new innovations and this one is no exception.

    But also your data about IQ is completely uncited, unverifiable and false. Would be curious if you could prove that, assuming you understand what it means to “prove” something in mathematical or logical terms.

    If the next generation is doing better than you, don’t be jealous, it’s supposed to work that way. The only evidence of success in my life will be to see my children surpass me, and if they can’t, I would take accountability for it as my failure.

  69. 319

    RE: uwp @ 314 -I don’t think you can say she wasn’t hacked, only that we don’t know whether she was. She clearly did not have the security in place.

    RE: Matt P @ 315 – Well it’s not like there have been a lot of responses to the RE comments.

  70. 320
    N says:

    @ Matt P 315 – 100%. It seems when real estate news is not trending bullish the comments disappear and/or go off topic. It would seem it’s a more interesting time with more to discuss now than 6 months ago.

  71. 321
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 317:

    RE: uwp @ 314 -I don’t think you can say she wasn’t hacked, only that we don’t know whether she was.

    This is some real deep insight. Thanks for this.

  72. 322

    By uwp @ 319:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 317:

    RE: uwp @ 314 -I don’t think you can say she wasn’t hacked, only that we don’t know whether she was.

    This is some real deep insight. Thanks for this.

    Well I will admit that is sort of obvious, but it’s not like hackers send thank you notes afterward, or notify the press. Also there is the issue of whatever Hillary did with the server.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Rha6Wamfp0

    You cant watch that but cringe in remembering how bad our choices were in 2016. On the opposing side we had Trump, who gloated during a debate that his grandchild was some sort of a IT genius.

  73. 323
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 276
    RE: Eastsider @ 277
    RE: northender @ 278

    LInked below is an hourly plot of Tim’s KC/SFH inventory data as of 13:00 hours today. As I mentioned earlier, the peaks recently have been Friday nights, and last week was no exception.

    07.20.2018 20:00 3970 (up 171 from 3799 last week)
    11.16.2014 01:00 3974 (last time inventory exceeded current value)

    https://imgur.com/UpIY58y
    (Once the plot image is up, click one more time on it to magnify)

    Year 2018 has so far surpassed 2017, 2016, 2015 and is starting to catch up on 2014. Not saying with any certainty yet that the 2014 inventory peak will be surpassed in 2018, but it is a possibility.

    Recalcitrant sellers: All aboard the listing train, or be left behind.

  74. 324

    RE: Justme @ 320

    I’ve been running stats and am picking up a slight price drop. I start with Redmond 98052 as there is less variance there and then compare Bellevue and Kirkland before checking over in Issaquah-Sammamish. I run two sets of stats on a Median Price and Median Price Per Square Foot basis separating 1989 and older from 1990 and newer due to the large variance in median size.

    Both segments are down as to median price and median price per square foot in July so far at a bit under the 2017 median price. The older houses in Redmond peaked in the 2nd Quarter of this year with a bit of a spike. So that likely will continue to be the peak price for quite some time.

  75. 325

    RE: Justme @ 320 – We’re over 4,100 at the moment.

    The number 4,100 brought to you from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

    BTW, FWIW, I did a search in a part of Seattle proper today and 7 of the 8 actives had been on the market for over 30 days, and all of those had had price reductions. The one pending and 7 solds had been on the market 8 days or less, and none (obviously) had a price reduction. This again supports my theory that agents got ahead of the market, and possibly due to the pricing issue I’ve raised. (Oh, and those numbers have the same disclaimer as the Number 4,100.)

  76. 326
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    Having been watching inventory in my neighborhood, I’ve noticed that all the decent homes that were slow to sell have made their way into contract, but there’s still a backlog of 4+ week properties well in excess of anything I’ve seen recently. Nearly all the remaining listings are quite bad but don’t seem like they will sell at anything like the prices they commanded a few months ago, based on time on market.

  77. 327
    David says:

    I’ll give you a hint: It is called Google and keywords “IQ”, “drop”, “1970s”, “generation”. #Darwin

    That being said, Warren Buffet says the current generation is living 20% better than past gens but that may be because they are living off the fat of the Boomers. But let us hope not.

    By Paulie @ 316:

    RE: David @ 298

    The current generation is doing a good job. Every old grumpy man believes that the current generation is ruining the world, oldest cliche in grumpy old man history. And yet by and large, each generation swells with new innovations and this one is no exception.

    But also your data about IQ is completely uncited, unverifiable and false. Would be curious if you could prove that, assuming you understand what it means to “prove” something in mathematical or logical terms.

    If the next generation is doing better than you, don’t be jealous, it’s supposed to work that way. The only evidence of success in my life will be to see my children surpass me, and if they can’t, I would take accountability for it as my failure.

  78. 328
    Eastsider says:

    We have been in such a hot market that many forget what a normal market is like. In a normal market, the inventory size would be at least twice as large, and more if you account for population growth.

    That said, there is nothing normal about the elevated home prices today. When mortgage rates hit 5-5 1/2%, I hope we will return to a sustainable/normal market, at lower prices.

  79. 329
    Benvolio says:

    By Paulie @ 316:

    RE: David @ 298

    The current generation is doing a good job. Every old grumpy man believes that the current generation is ruining the world, oldest cliche in grumpy old man history. And yet by and large, each generation swells with new innovations and this one is no exception.

    But also your data about IQ is completely uncited, unverifiable and false. Would be curious if you could prove that, assuming you understand what it means to “prove” something in mathematical or logical terms.

    If the next generation is doing better than you, don’t be jealous, it’s supposed to work that way. The only evidence of success in my life will be to see my children surpass me, and if they can’t, I would take accountability for it as my failure.

    The facts disagree with David . The data consistently shows a rise in IQ with each subsequent generation. We are getting progressively smarter.

    This metadata analysis shows a rise of about 3 points per decade and about 10 points per generation

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25987509

  80. 330
  81. 331
    Benvolio says:

    By David @ 327:

    RE: Benvolio @ 326 – Wrong: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-are-iqs-dropping-on-a-worldwide-basis_us_59743580e4b0f1feb89b4423

    Thanks, but I’ll always take the metadata over some cherry picked data sets with questionable methodology.

  82. 332
    David says:

    RE: Benvolio @ 328 – Oh ok, then here you go but it will cost you $10:

    http://www.pnas.org/content/115/26/6674

    The good news is that Chinese IQ rates about the highest. So get ready to be replaced!! Bié kèqì

  83. 333

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 322:

    BTW, FWIW, I did a search in a part of Seattle proper today and 7 of the 8 actives had been on the market for over 30 days, and all of those had had price reductions. The one pending and 7 solds had been on the market 8 days or less, and none (obviously) had a price reduction. This again supports my theory that agents got ahead of the market, and possibly due to the pricing issue I’ve raised. (Oh, and those numbers have the same disclaimer as the Number 4,100.)

    Here’s an additional thought on that. I’ve been saying that the bidding wars make the job of agents harder, because it’s difficult to know what to do with that bid up house as a comp when you’re pricing a new listing. But the other aspect of that is something that has been around forever. People tend to like their own houses!

    As a tendency, people tend to think their house is better than other houses in the neighborhood, sometimes even if it’s the worst house. And they also don’t want to let their house sell for less than some other nearby house, so they get impacted by the asking price of other houses when they’re still active. It can sometimes be hard to convince them that the price of an active or pending listing isn’t the best guide for what a house is worth, even if that house has been on the market for over 90 days. But how do you convince them that the proper comp price for a house listed at $590,000 and selling for $660,000 isn’t $660,000? Just the idea that the price of an active listing isn’t all that important is a hard sell for some people. Pricing less than what an identical house sold for can be even harder, but sometimes that’s appropriate (others it’s not).

  84. 334
    Notme says:

    RE: Matt P @ 315
    RE: N @ 318

    Endless and waay excessive housing inflation is the lifeblood of REIC vampires, and they will yammer excitedly about it to no end. When the ghost of housing deflation appears, the yammer is replaced with voluminous trifles and petty distractions about Sidewalks, Siding and Socialism, none of which would matter if housing was not easily 2X overpriced.

    Then there is the subset that write long soothing missives that sound so THOUGHTFUL and REASONABLE. Overpaying by 2X does not matter as long as the narrative sounds thoughtful. Everyone knows that..

  85. 335

    RE: Notme @ 331 – Siding doesn’t matter? Are you an archetect or contractor? ;-)

  86. 336
    Notme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 332

    Enough with the Siding, Kary, you are cramping my style. What are you, some kind of Sidewalk Socialist?

  87. 337

    One of Our Astute Bloggers

    Brought up how lucky the Pacific Northwest is to get cool evenings from the Puget Sound winds swirling in from the Pacific Ocean in Summer…but its still a horrifying 93 degrees in Covington [most without central air]and non-stop all week too…but LA is having electric grid brown outs and 120 degrees today….yikes!

    https://www.infowars.com/we-are-seeing-heat-and-drought-in-the-southwest-united-states-like-we-havent-seen-since-the-dust-bowl-of-the-1930s/

    The article mentions Dust Bowl type weather, Great Depression and no food here we come again? Anything is possible, stay indoors out of the direct sun if you can…

  88. 338

    RE: Deerhawke @ 255
    You Agree That Microsoft Should Be Hiring Homeless Veterans in Seattle Then?

    Answer the question Deerhawke, or the Populists will label you a closet open border party member a Never Trumper IOWs….a good way to lose friends, even in Seattle.

    Or are you a Socialist now for the Democrats?

  89. 339

    RE: softwarengineer @ 334
    As California/Vegas [Dust Bowl Storms] Burns Itself Off the Map Today

    Dallas is cooling off and so is Kansas City.

    KC is as cool as Seattle today…LOL….both great real estate weather areas to grab up homes?

    Kansas City
    United States
    7/24, 11:28 AM
    FairMostly Sunny
    89°69°
    83°

  90. 340

    Seattle Area Real Estate Grabbed Up By Chinese Real News?

    Let’s hope it was all Seattle Area Fake News anyway, the Chinese are getting out of American real estate investment, from today’s WSJ:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-real-estate-investors-retreat-from-u-s-as-political-pressure-mounts-1532437934

  91. 341
    sfrz says:

    “Jessie Culbert, a Redfin agent in Seattle said inventory there has increased, allowing buyers to move at a more leisurely pace. Previously, properties incited bidding wars and got 10 or 20 offers, she said. Now she counsels sellers that multiple similar listings are likely available. ‘We’ll have to sharpen the pencil on the list price,’ she said. Buyers she encounters have often toured 20 properties and seem to feel little urgency, she said, adding: ‘Many of the buyers got burned out. It’s just exhausting to be in the hunt for a long time and losing out.’” http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201807237318/us-existing-home-sales-tumbled-again-in-june-update.aspx

    Translation** No desire to catch a falling knife**

  92. 342
    David says:

    I think the Chinese will be back. When you see the crap (truly ultra crap) that is Chinese real estate that falls apart almost to the ground in 5 years – you know those Chinese are coming back. Even the ‘rich’ in China have crap houses.

    By softwarengineer @ 337:

    Seattle Area Real Estate Grabbed Up By Chinese Real News?

    Let’s hope it was all Seattle Area Fake News anyway, the Chinese are getting out of American real estate investment, from today’s WSJ:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-real-estate-investors-retreat-from-u-s-as-political-pressure-mounts-1532437934

  93. 343
    David says:

    Not scientific, BUT I am also noticing a real slowdown in newly listed properties. At least in South metro-Seattle.

  94. 344
    Blurtman says:

    “Jessie Culbert, a Redfin agent in Seattle said inventory there has increased, allowing buyers to move at a more leisurely pace. ‘We’ll have to bake more cookies and use more scented candles,’ she said, adding: ‘Many of the buyers are having second thoughts. It’s just starting to sink in that RE may not go up forever.’”

  95. 345

    RE: David @ 339RE: David B. @ 275
    We Build Our Seattle Homes from the Same Chinese Crap Anyway

    Sheet rock with toxins, adhesives, almost all contractor tools using toxic Lithium produced batteries, etc, etc…our ports bring the Masses of Chinese junk to build homes in the Seattle Port leaky oil barges….LOL

  96. 346

    RE: softwarengineer @ 342 – On the topic of Chinese crap, most refrigerator replacement water filters are made in China today–it’s hard to find one that is not. Given their propensity to add lead or other toxic substances to everything they produce (toothpaste, pet food, etc.) I would argue it’s probably safer to trust unfiltered water, unless maybe you live in Flint. IMHO it’s better to just leave the filter bypass plug in place (or buy a new one) and save yourself some money and health risks.

  97. 347

    The News From the” LA Hot Frying Pan” is Horrifying Today for Real Estate Sales/Prices?

    “LePage points to the rise in mortgage rates over the past six months, increasing significantly a borrower’s monthly payment. Rates haven’t moved much in the past month, but are suddenly going higher again this week, pointing to even further weakness in affordability…”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/southern-california-home-sales-crash-a-warning-sign-to-the-nation.html

    Its from an Open Border Party news source too….you know I possibly predicted this scenario months ago, but kept mostly silent until more evidence YOY came in….a GIGANTIC 2nd QTR Trump 4.8% GDP growth is great news, if you aren’t borrowing money…LOL

    Viva the Tariffs if you’re buying bacon [pork glut], you hate the tariffs if ya work for the Chinese Port of Seattle…LOL

  98. 348

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 343
    Remember the Old Fish Tanks We Had as Kids?

    The filter was similar to what they use today….fiber glass and carbon to filter our water….does that mean were swallowing small amounts of glass fiber with filtered water? LOL…I use filtered water to make my coffee through a coffee filter to get rid of the glass fibers….LOL

    Bottled water has the same problems….no Fluoride [like tap water] in your blood either, say hello to cavities and teeth implants….LOL

  99. 349

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 343
    Unlike Obama

    Trump’s leaner EPA has replaced half of Flint’s lead pipes already. Eliminate the useless projects and fund/prioritize the ones that make sense….IOWs eliminate most of the current Obama EPA that did nothing anyway.

  100. 350
    S-Crow says:

    Curious what goes on behind the scenes in a purchase? I give you this prime sample:

    From a follow up this morning to a very large bank–

    Escrow: Hi, we are wondering if there is any update on loan docs (after finally getting someone to answer a device called a phone)
    Bank Staffer: oh, not sure, yeah , hmm, I think I did get an email from you yesterday. I think I recognize your name.
    Escrow: has the CD been generated yet for the buyers (we know it hasn’t). We are closing this coming Monday. It’s Wednesday.
    Bank staffer: not sure yet, I haven’t even logged in to my computer yet. So, I’ll check when I see what’s going on.

    Folks this is another sampling of the utter incompetence and total lack of a standard of care in transaction management. Banks are great for repository of your money/paychecks. Dealing with major Banks in lending is like working with a Gov’t bureaucracy.

    Buyers have no idea how bad it can be. They have no idea the nonsense that escrow has to go through to get to the point where we are meeting one on one with clients at the closing table with a smiling face.

    Please work with LOCAL mortgage pro’s.

  101. 351

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 343
    Buy a Cheaper Refrigerator Without Cooled Filtered Water Connections

    The home improvement costs with installation and required code plumbing will suck your budget dry….$3-4K to replace a plumbed refrigerator? I learned this sad fact recently replacing the plumbing for a $400 dish washer from China using 27 year old plumbing, with to code installation, $1500…

  102. 352
    N says:

    Seattle Landlords Are Pissed: “If You Don’t Make the Money, Why Do You Have the Right to Live in the City?”

    https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/07/24/29672642/survey-of-seattle-landlords-shows-surprise-theyre-pissed

  103. 353

    RE: S-Crow @ 347
    You’re Preaching to the Choir

    BECU personnel didn’t know how to do a simple wire transfer to pay cash for a foreclosure….I had to lead/train them on how to do it….the FAA is getting in trouble for hiring diversity over skills experience, its called plane accidents galore lately…banks too??

    The time we spend on the phone training these village idiots is not factored into our costs, I factor it in and yes, its cutting deep into our profits. I’ve been using stamps lately if I can, its much cheaper than calling the incompetents and wasting my TIME on the phone communicating with a professional that has the skills of a 3rd grader….LOL

  104. 354

    RE: S-Crow @ 348 – LOL. I should tell the story of how it took four months to get a loan payoff out of one lender, and three months on another. Fortunately on one of them there was so much equity the title company let it close and just withheld funds.

    BUT . . . .

    There can also be problems on the escrow side. We had one where the escrow wasn’t able to follow the lender’s simple instructions (e.g. print on 8.5×11 paper), or return the paperwork in a timely basis to the lender. And then they couldn’t follow the instructions on how to fix their errors. We barely closed on time and only because our LO wasted her entire morning dealing with the escrow (a junior closer–the main one never did jump in).

    Which brings up another issue. In this market the seller typically dictates the escrow, but if the escrow cannot perform on time it’s the buyer’s earnest money which could be at risk, particularly if they no longer had their financing addendum. That really isn’t fair, but good luck getting your offer accepted in a multiple offer situation if you don’t pick the seller’s escrow.

  105. 355

    By N @ 350:

    Seattle Landlords Are Pissed: “If You Don’t Make the Money, Why Do You Have the Right to Live in the City?”

    https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/07/24/29672642/survey-of-seattle-landlords-shows-surprise-theyre-pissed

    I suspect those results wouldn’t be so bad if not for the methods the City Council has used. It’s hard to like your abuser absent developing Stockholm Syndrome, and the landlords are not quite there yet.

  106. 356
    Notme says:

    RE: N @ 350

    Are landlords fools that overpay for rental property, and then whine when they cannot overcharge renters enough to make a profit? Hell no! If you own something, you have a God-given right to earn a profit on it, no matter how bad a deal you made when you bought it. I have it, you don’t, is the mantra. Now pay up or else! That’s capitalism. Everyone knows that.

  107. 357
    Matt P says:

    By N @ 350:

    Seattle Landlords Are Pissed: “If You Don’t Make the Money, Why Do You Have the Right to Live in the City?”

    https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/07/24/29672642/survey-of-seattle-landlords-shows-surprise-theyre-pissed

    Ah yes, low wage earners, the riffraff, don’t deserve to live in the city they work in. Out of sight out of mind is the best place for them. We should bus them in during the morning to clean up the city and bus them out at night. It would be best if they all wore matching uniforms no matter where they work – be it at McDonald’s or sweeping the street – so we know at whom to look with derision.

  108. 358

    RE: Matt P @ 355 – I always liked the people I met who were wealthy but you’d never guess it from appearances. Overalls and an old pickup truck was how one such person I knew appeared to the world.

  109. 359
    Paulie says:

    RE: Matt P @ 355

    Renting profitably is challenging in Seattle. A landlord cannot buy anything in Seattle at today’s prices and even expect to break even on cash flows. Only silver linings are equity growth and appreciation. If you bought several years ago you can turn a profit.

    Landlords are not obligated to rent at a loss. When I was younger and less fortunate I had to commute into the city and could not afford to live within it. I don’t believe that that is unreasonable — this country offers pursuit of happiness, not happiness. Sometimes the pursuit entails a commute. Sometimes it entails moving to the Midwest where the average income required to buy a home is less than $30K a year. I don’t think we should make poor people wear poor uniforms, lol, but I think it is reasonable to expect that people do not live where they cannot afford to.

    All the cranes suggest a tremendous amount of new supply of apartments coming soon. Over supply. And I still see box homes popping up all over the city, which I heavily favor — a lot with 1 SFH can be subdivided for use by 4 families and the top surfaces can be used as patio space instead of needlessly steepled. I have noticed many of the same people complaining about affordability also complain about the solutions that are clearly aimed at creating more supply. People who hate techies driving up prices also hate new construction and hate box homes. If they had it their way they would be entitled to live in “charming” antiquated and distressed ramblers at Midwest prices doing labor that is no longer very valuable to society in Our Year of the Lord 2018 but familiar to them. People who cannot adapt with the times will be left out, just as Seattle’s original settlers ousted the natives who were “underutilizing” the land, so they too will be ousted if they do not adapt.

  110. 360

    RE: Paulie @ 357 – I don’t think the amount of rent is the primary issue. Rents are not controlled. The issues are: (1) Not being able to freely pick between two or more applicants; (2) Not being able to collect your entire deposit up front; (3) Restrictions on the eviction process beyond state law; and (4) Undoubtedly other things I’ve forgotten.

  111. 361
    Notme says:

    RE: Paulie @ 357

    >> Renting profitably is challenging in Seattle. A landlord cannot buy anything in Seattle at today’s prices and even expect to break even on cash flows. Only silver linings are equity growth and appreciation. If you bought several years ago you can turn a profit.

    Exactly!!!! When will Seattle landlords be guaranteed their well-deserved profits? Demanding that poor dirty renters find some other city to live in is only reasonable. What is unreasonable is to demand that landlords go somewhere else to ply their noble trade. Free-market forces and personal responsibility should only apply to renters, not to landlords. Landlords must be exempt from market forces. People who think otherwise are damn Socialists! Everyone knows that.

    Have a cracker, Paulie, you have earned it by posting what may very well be the post of the day if not post of the week.

  112. 362
    David says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 356:

    RE: Matt P @ 355 – I always liked the people I met who were wealthy but you’d never guess it from appearances. Overalls and an old pickup truck was how one such person I knew appeared to the world.

    I’m worth way over $1M but I don’t talk about it. Mostly because no one can hear me ashore.

    And pickup trucks are easily as much as a Lexus these days.

  113. 363
    pedaltothemetal says:

    FB getting hit hard today.

    How is AMZN going to grow into that 890T market cap? Cheaper ball shiners. Where are the cheaper ball shiners? Pittsburgh? Dallas?

    Perfect time to get yourself in massive debt. Tech never goes down. Tech took the chinese viagra, could it ever go down? The bezos micro d may be small, but it’s still pointed up right? Will bezos blame his ball shiners, when micro d inverts?

    Meanwhile, you can still find free used needles at your favorite Seattle park, then push the baby stroller home on that sidewalk-less camp road.

    Carkeek and Mathews beach are perfect for that special combination of needles + 3rd world-like sidewalk-less roads.

    So give that baby boomer your $, they’ll give you their last laugh and a charming all original moss pit. Hopefully they spend your $ on chinese viagra.

  114. 364

    By David @ 360:

    And pickup trucks are easily as much as a Lexus these days.

    Not old pickup trucks! But hey, if you think that, I have an 89 Ranger I might be willing to let go of for maybe $80,000. Maybe.

  115. 365
    David says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 361

    Facebook did this to themselves. I only post fake info on FB and also delete my account every couple of months sometimes staying with an account for a few months. I only need it for business anyway. I don’t ‘friend’ anyone and, basically, block anyone that tries to friend me.

    Once I realized they were selling info overseas and working with Communist China, I was very much disinclined to use Facebook.

    Facebook provides NOTHING of real or enduring value other than advertising. At least Amazon sends you something. But even then I prefer to order from Oregon because I skip the sales tax that Seattle uses to fund their crazy re-distribution schemes.

  116. 366
    David says:

    I’m still looking my father’s old red F-150 which was stolen by a pack of illegal aliens and stripped bare at the border of Texas when it was found. But the Ranger is coming back soon and I’ll bet you it isn’t a cheapo.

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 362:

    By David @ 360:

    And pickup trucks are easily as much as a Lexus these days.

    Not old pickup trucks! But hey, if you think that, I have an 89 Ranger I might be willing to let go of for maybe $80,000. Maybe.

  117. 367
    Anonymous Coward says:

    You know the landlords that really get under my skin and have been completely overlooked by our local political leaders as they seek to address our housing crises? The ones who own waterfront properties on Mercer Island. I want to live there, but they want too much money! Why the only thing keeping us all from being able to rent waterfront mansions at whatever price we can comfortably afford is their desire to suck every available dollar from the market! Greedy offspring-of-unkown-parentage!

  118. 368
    Erik says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 365
    I have an easy solution, stop trying to rent Mercer Island mansions. Come on out to West Seattle and rent something nice for under $3k per month.

  119. 369

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 353
    Ya Can’t Have It Both Ways at the Same Time Open Border Folks

    Either you support helping the poor or you throw them in the homeless ditch…

  120. 370
  121. 371

    RE: Erik @ 366
    Hi Erik!

    How’s the patient professional engineer planning his flipping investments?

    You always have great ideas too….Loved that one about only buying upstairs units that potentially/likely flood the downstairs units…LOL

    And I won’t give you a smug Seattle Open Border Party response to everything, “I knew that”….LOL…no, no one knows everything and why would they? Let’s be honest professionals again like Erik!

  122. 372
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: N @ 350

    I think some of the inventory you are seeing on the market now is smaller landlords who gave up and decided to sell. I know one who sold a couple of units early this spring (and doing a victory dance that he sold them at the top). I know another who wishes he had sold this spring.

    They feel squeezed by:

    –the city council on one side, who demonizes them and adds layer after layer of regulation

    –big-scale low-margin apartment developers on the other side, who just keep building and building and then have to give rental sweeteners and reduced rents to fill their units. Not their problem– as long as they get them leased up they will sell them to TIAA-CREF which is glad to have a stable 3% return on 100% all-cash investment.

  123. 373
    Notme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 369

    >> as long as they get them leased up they will sell them to TIAA-CREF which is glad to have a stable 3% return on 100% all-cash investment.

    Those damn commie teachers and their TIAA-CREF socialist pension fund scam. So THEY are behind the glut of almost-affordable-to-rich-people Belltown and South Lake Union apartment highrises. How long before they start tearing out the sidewalks on the way to Marxist utopia? Whatever happened to free markets? Everyone SHOULD have known this was gonna happen.

  124. 374
    Bubble Trouble says:

    SNL and The Onion couldn’t have written this:

    http://fortune.com/2018/07/24/seattle-streetcar-system-fit-rails/

    Seattle socialists hell bent on forcing all their proletariat out fo cars and into public transportation, , made a teenie tiny mistake. They bought street cars that don’t fit on the tracks. Oooopsie. But hey what’s $200M wasted? They’ll just increase taxes on “the rich” some more and problem solved.

  125. 375
    Bubble Trouble says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 369

    Socialist logic:

    Step 1. We have a “housing crisis” and need a way to get more affordable rentals on the market

    Step 2. We will demonize landlords until they give up and sell their homes, thereby decreasing the number of rentals on the market.

    Step 3. Lower supply will magically mean lower rents as well.

    Step 4. When socialist policies fail, as they always do, blame capitalism.

  126. 376
    David says:

    Wait til the Amazonians, who still seem to NOT be buying houses here anymore, start dumping houses so they can move to Texas or Northern Virginia and HQ2.

    It is going to be brutal.

  127. 377
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Paulie @ 357:

    RE: Matt P @ 355
    People who hate techies driving up prices also hate new construction and hate box homes.

    Some people just love to hate everything and everyone. They are pathetically sad people who think if they will be happy if they bring everyone else down to their miserable levels.

  128. 378
    Doug says:

    RE: David @ 363 – Facebook actually provides an enormous amount of value to all the people peddling pyramid schemes. Pushing lotions, potions, and pills has moved out of the living room and directly onto Bookface. Working from home and providing a better life for your family has never been easier!
    Seriously, it has literally never been easier. So easy that there aren’t enough hours in the day for the FTC to shut down the thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of pyramid schemes out there today.

  129. 379
    Justme says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 372

    Oh, those poor demonized landlords and their fragile egos. Ma, the Seattle City Council is looking at me funny!!

    Isn’t the real problem that many landlord wannabes overpaid for property in their thirst for easy profits? And now they are in a hurry to sell, before it is too late. Boo-hoo.

    http://komonews.com/news/local/study-40-of-landlords-selling-or-sold-seattle-properties-because-of-new-rental-rules

    “A just-completed study by researchers at the University of Washington, paid for by the City of Seattle found 40 percent of landlords survey indicated they have sold or will be selling rental properties in the city because of the new rental restrictions.”

    Wait a minute. Didn’t the first-acceptable-first-accepted rule get reversed? So what is the real problem? Overpaid?

  130. 380
    Doug says:

    RE: Justme @ 376 – You must not have seen this: https://wallethub.com/edu/best-worst-large-cities-to-live-in/14358/#

    Turns out Seattle is the best place to live in the entire country. But keep calling the top, you’ll be right eventually.

  131. 381
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Justme @ 376:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 372

    Wait a minute. Didn’t the first-acceptable-first-accepted rule get reversed? So what is the real problem? Overpaid?

    That was just one of many idiotic rules. The others are forcing LLs to accept Section 8 and forbidding them from running a criminal background check. Criminal tenants using Section 8….and you say LLs are selling their properties? Gee I don’t see any downside to that, do you?

  132. 382
    Bubble Trouble says:

    RE: Doug @ 377

    8 months without seeing the sun, clogged streets, homeless defalcating everywhere, used needles everywhere, graffiti on every street sign all for the low low cost of $800K for a 1500 sq ft home that needs $100K of renovations.

    If that’s the best, I’d hate to see the worst.

  133. 383

    By Bubble Trouble @ 371:

    SNL and The Onion couldn’t have written this:

    http://fortune.com/2018/07/24/seattle-streetcar-system-fit-rails/

    Seattle socialists hell bent on forcing all their proletariat out fo cars and into public transportation, , made a teenie tiny mistake. They bought street cars that don’t fit on the tracks. Oooopsie. But hey what’s $200M wasted? They’ll just increase taxes on “the rich” some more and problem solved.

    Actually it’s not quite so clear, but I think the gauge of the track is correct, it’s just that the car is longer, heavier and just slightly wider. The main impact of that may be at the maintenance barn and the turn around area up on Broadway, but I suppose there are possibly other consequences too. Ira might be able to chime in on this since I think he has some past experience with trolleys.

    But yes, another situation where Seattle appears to have been quite inept.

  134. 384

    By Justme @ 376:

    Wait a minute. Didn’t the first-acceptable-first-accepted rule get reversed? So what is the real problem? Overpaid?

    I think they likely appealed that, even though they lost on about 10 different grounds. Only losing so many ways is probably better than average for them, since they have no respect for the law when passing ordinances.

  135. 385
    Blake says:

    By David B. @ 275:

    By Deerhawke @ 249:

    David B. most people on this site long ago learned to ignore softwareengineer and David.

    I have to admit there are times when I take pleasure in not suffering fools gladly. For a while. Until it gets old. Then I lapse back into just ignoring them for a while.

    I am always curious to poke them and see happens… but it does get old!

  136. 386
    Blake says:

    A correction is coming eventually… seems to be closer than we may think!
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-26/american-housing-market-is-showing-signs-of-running-out-of-steam

    Oh I forgot! “Seattle is different!” :-)

  137. 387
    Doug says:

    RE: Blake @ 383 – Yeah, when a correction is near, Bloomberg is going to alert you in advance to give you ample time to get out and lock in your gains, because that’s how markets work.

    The same applies for all asset classes covered by Bloomberg. I’m a retired multi-billionaire and I’ve made all my money simply by waiting for Bloomberg’s cues. It’s pretty easy.

  138. 388
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 369:

    as long as they get them leased up they will sell them to TIAA-CREF which is glad to have a stable 3% return on 100% all-cash investment.

    3% annuity/retirement fund return? Dubious.

  139. 389
    David says:

    I love how Deerhawke ignored me by writing so much about me!

    By Blake @ 382:

    By David B. @ 275:

    By Deerhawke @ 249:

    David B. most people on this site long ago learned to ignore softwareengineer and David.

    I have to admit there are times when I take pleasure in not suffering fools gladly. For a while. Until it gets old. Then I lapse back into just ignoring them for a while.

    I am always curious to poke them and see happens… but it does get old!

  140. 390
    David says:

    I can literally outwalk the streetcar upon exiting Westlake Station and walking all the way to Lake Union without ever being passed by the pokey streetcar (or could about 3 years ago when I last rode the thing).

    It is a quaint ripoff.

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 380:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 371:

    SNL and The Onion couldn’t have written this:

    http://fortune.com/2018/07/24/seattle-streetcar-system-fit-rails/

    Seattle socialists hell bent on forcing all their proletariat out fo cars and into public transportation, , made a teenie tiny mistake. They bought street cars that don’t fit on the tracks. Oooopsie. But hey what’s $200M wasted? They’ll just increase taxes on “the rich” some more and problem solved.

    Actually it’s not quite so clear, but I think the gauge of the track is correct, it’s just that the car is longer, heavier and just slightly wider. The main impact of that may be at the maintenance barn and the turn around area up on Broadway, but I suppose there are possibly other consequences too. Ira might be able to chime in on this since I think he has some past experience with trolleys.

    But yes, another situation where Seattle appears to have been quite inept.

  141. 391

    By Doug @ 384:

    RE: Blake @ 383 – Yeah, when a correction is near, Bloomberg is going to alert you in advance to give you ample time to get out and lock in your gains, because that’s how markets work.

    The same applies for all asset classes covered by Bloomberg. I’m a retired multi-billionaire and I’ve made all my money simply by waiting for Bloomberg’s cues. It’s pretty easy.

    You and the authors of those pieces both got filthy rich! It’s amazing that they bother to keep writing those articles, given their investing prowess and resulting great wealth.

  142. 392
    David says:

    RE: Doug @ 375 – Agreed. Facebook is the worst environment in the world. You allow people into your life you would never invite home and would maintain a cordial distance from otherwise.

  143. 393
    Blake says:

    By Doug @ 384:

    RE: Blake @ 383 – Yeah, when a correction is near, Bloomberg is going to alert you in advance to give you ample time to get out and lock in your gains, because that’s how markets work.

    The same applies for all asset classes covered by Bloomberg. I’m a retired multi-billionaire and I’ve made all my money simply by waiting for Bloomberg’s cues. It’s pretty easy.

    I like how you ignore the details in the article and attack the source. We live in the Age of Trump! Lovely…

    Bloomberg publishes many articles every month reporting both dire stats and positive stats. I generally read the articles and assess them by the content. Do you think there is a conspiracy and the business press would never report the facts because they don’t want us to know! Ahhhh… “THEY” would never tell us…

    I recall Bloomberg writing many excellent articles about the possibility of a financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. Do you? I read one and told my father to liquidate all his WaMu stock. He got out at 31 and saved $50k!

  144. 394
    uwp says:

    I have bad news for the Bezos Haters: Amazon had a strong earnings release today and is up 3% to all-time highs after hours.

    The Ball Washing will continue until morale improves!

  145. 395
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By uwp @ 391:

    I have bad news for the Bezos Haters: Amazon had a strong earnings release today and is up 3% to all-time highs after hours.

    The Ball Washing will continue until morale improves!

    Great news for AMZN’s new home….Austin, TX.

  146. 396
    Sid says:

    By uwp @ 391:

    I have bad news for the Bezos Haters…………..

    It’s been bad news for them for the last 20 years.

  147. 397
    Sid says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 392:

    By uwp @ 391:

    I have bad news for the Bezos Haters: Amazon had a strong earnings release today and is up 3% to all-time highs after hours.

    The Ball Washing will continue until morale improves!

    Great news for AMZN’s new home….Austin, TX.

    Nah. They are not moving to Austin. Dallas has a better chance of landing Amazon than Austin.

  148. 398
    Ross says:

    By S-Crow @ 348:

    Curious what goes on behind the scenes in a purchase? I give you this prime sample:

    From a follow up this morning to a very large bank–

    Escrow: Hi, we are wondering if there is any update on loan docs (after finally getting someone to answer a device called a phone)
    Bank Staffer: oh, not sure, yeah , hmm, I think I did get an email from you yesterday. I think I recognize your name.
    Escrow: has the CD been generated yet for the buyers (we know it hasn’t). We are closing this coming Monday. It’s Wednesday.
    Bank staffer: not sure yet, I haven’t even logged in to my computer yet. So, I’ll check when I see what’s going on.

    Folks this is another sampling of the utter incompetence and total lack of a standard of care in transaction management. Banks are great for repository of your money/paychecks. Dealing with major Banks in lending is like working with a Gov’t bureaucracy.

    Buyers have no idea how bad it can be. They have no idea the nonsense that escrow has to go through to get to the point where we are meeting one on one with clients at the closing table with a smiling face.

    Please work with LOCAL mortgage pro’s.

    Going through my first real estate transaction (about a decade ago), I was utterly amazed at the incompetence and last minute rushes down for almost everything in the transaction. From the seller finalizing some addendum terms the morning of close, to escrow printing out closing paperwork as I arrived at the building, to my loan agent needing to hand carry paperwork to the local office to get funding done on the same day.

    It all did work out in the end, but it seems like a million things that could have been avoided and which might cause unnecessary errors, some of which could be very expensive to fix.

    I guess most of the folks involved were basically competent, but just reacting to the normal ambivalence of would be buyers and general stressful market conditions.

    But things could be a lot simpler and less stressful.

  149. 399
    uwp says:

    I think I’ve been drifting to the NoVa predictions. Just makes a lot of sense.

  150. 400
    redmondjp says:

    By uwp @ 395:

    I think I’ve been drifting to the NoVa predictions. Just makes a lot of sense.

    Exactly. They need to be close to the power elite in DC because Uncle Sam is going to be their biggest customer. I’m 100% convinced that’s where they will end up.

    Plus, Bezos learned from Bill Gates in the 1990s what happens when you don’t schmooze with the feds/pols, and he doesn’t want to repeat that mistake.

  151. 401

    RE: Doug @ 375
    As Long As You’re Not a Trump Supporter

    They get their accounts closed by non-partisan[????]….LOL….ya see why I don’t give Facebook my personal information. No one should trust them.

  152. 402

    RE: Sid @ 394
    Amazon is History

    When American manufacturing engineering for like Boeing comes back to Seattle from Japan due to trade tariffs….Boeing will be forced to bring the jobs back by Trump? Double/Triple Amazon puny slave wages.

    Amazon can have what’s left of the illegal aliens after Trump’s deportations….they lack skills and are perfect for a slave job…

  153. 403
    Deerhawke says:

    Basically, the Amazon story remains that

    1) Amazon is just simply dominant. Strong growth, strong revenue streams, increasing profits. Horizontal growth and vertical integration. Oh and a rising share price.

    2) Amazon may be hiring at a somewhat slower pace while they try to increase employee productivity, but they are still hiring at a pretty impressive pace. My guess is that after a period of somewhat slower hiring to make sure they have the right senior people and middle managers in the right places, employment will surge again, especially in areas like web services, AI, robotics, advanced logistics, supply chain management, etc.

    3) They will not even be making an announcement about HQ2 until this fall.

    4) It will take a minimum of 3 years to start to see employment diverted from Seattle to HQ2. That puts us out into the fall of 2021 before we see any real diversion effect.

    5) In the meantime, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft will all be hiring and bringing top tech talent to the Puget Sound area. Expedia will make its move to the waterfront and Tableau is also back growing rapidly. There are a whole range of spin off companies starting up, raising money and hiring. The medical and med-tech companies are also hiring and growing like topsy. Spend some time looking at Geekwire and the Puget Sound Business Journal. It is astounding to see how much growth and diversification this economy is seeing. The days when Boeing and Weyerhauser were the regional giants seems quaint and distant.

    So, all in all. After a period when the real estate market was partying like it was 1999, we will go through a period of short-term correction. I think this will last through the end of the year. Then we will be back to a more manageable pace of growth with a flatter (but not flat) median price growth curve.

    I think we will see 4% growth in the spring of 2019. Most of that growth will be in the lower price points (5-6%) rather than in the higher price points (1.5-2%).

    When the big correction comes, it will not be because of local/regional issues. It will be because of a national downturn caused by national political-economic issues.

    Let’s look at things objectively. At some point Mueller will start issuing subpoenas that close in on the Trump family and Trump himself. The Republicans are not the same party of moral rectitude that they were during the Nixon era. People like Howard Baker could not exist in the Republican party nowadays.
    Public opinion polling data of the hard-core base shows they are likely to stonewall and back their latter day Il Duce to the hilt. A constitutional crisis is like a national train crash–we will go from a Keynesian high induced 4+% growth to a stand-still pretty quickly. 2020 will be a good time to be all cash and ready to buy in 2021.

  154. 404
    Bubble Trouble says:

    It will be Austin. Bank on it.

    Austin is the progressive island in Texas that will make Bezos and his snowflake coders feel right at home. It’s basically Seattle, but with better weather. Plus like WA, TX has no income tax. KA-CHING for Mr. Bezos. Austin has a yuuuge tech community already with thousands of existing Amazon employees as well as thousands working at Apple, IBM, Dell, Samsung, AMD, etc. U o f Texas is a top tier college that will be a good feeder and is located in….. Austin. Plus Whole Foods, which is now Amazon, is HQed in Austin. And finally, Bezos owns 1000 acres of land north of Austin. He’s been planning this move for a long time, the whole “contest” for HQ2 was nothing more than a PR move and a way to get some tax breaks from Austin and Texas.

    And anyone who thinks it will be HQ – 2 is a fool. How many companies have 2 HQs? None. It doesn’t exist. HQ2 is going to be HQ1 with Seattle remaining as a regional office.

  155. 405
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 399 – The last paragraph went totally off tangent. I will never advise people to be “all cash”. LOL.

  156. 406

    RE: Deerhawke @ 403
    Seattle is Officially the Laughing Stock of America, News TODAY:

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/0e4530a5-7385-30d0-9fc7-59e96753cfde/ss_seattle%27s-most-controversial.html

    And you support Amazon????….LOL…how about MASS butcher axed Boeing Manufacturing Engineers extracted from Seattle? American engineers should all be replaced with foreigners?

    Do you own a Lexus or Toyota Deerhawke….you know, the car with the time bomb computer and ignored American Safety Engineering recommendations? LOL…did Lexus ever redesign it???

    You still haven’t answered my homeless veteran cure…Microsoft should hire ’em…

    Cat got your tongue Deerhawke?

  157. 407
    Brian says:

    Finally hit 4000 SFH units. Inventory is only up 41% YOY.

  158. 408
    Sid says:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 404:

    It will be Austin. Bank on it.

    …………..

    Nope. Austin hasn’t offered any financial incentives to Amazon to move there. All other cities have given massive incentives.

  159. 409
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Sid @ 408:

    By Bubble Trouble @ 404:

    It will be Austin. Bank on it.

    …………..

    Nope. Austin hasn’t offered any financial incentives to Amazon to move there. All other cities have given massive incentives.

    Lack of income tax in TX is enough of an incentive compared to other options like Atlanta or NoVa where state income tax is 6%.

  160. 410
    Doug says:

    RE: Blake @ 393 – Articles in 2007 and 2008? The yield curve had already been inverted for 1-2 years by that point — not an impressive call.

    Can Seattle maintain Y-o-Y growth of 15%? Obviously not so a ‘cooling’ to a more reasonable 3-5% is probable. But to be calling for an outright correction (a decline in prices) while the yield curve is still positive is ridiculous.

    The yield curve can be inverted without a subsequent recession, but a recession cannot happen without being previously forecasted by an inverted yield curve. And while it’s pretty flat right now it’s not inverted so stay long assets and stop listening to talking heads who have very different motives than you (read: to attract eyeballs with attention grabbing headlines like, “The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years”).

    Or maybe Bloomberg is smarter than the bond market this time.

  161. 411
    Brian says:

    RE: Sid @ 408

    Maybe they’re smart enough to realize Bezos was going to go there all along?

  162. 412
    David says:

    Nope. At some point SCOTUS will slap Mueller down for cleverly trying to restrict Presidential communication to the People.

    I’m afraid Deerhawke has an ossified Vietnam-era mentality that supports the military industrial complex’s addiction to ‘free’ death of the American public as battlefield fodder.

    “At some point Mueller will start issuing subpoenas that close in on the Trump family and Trump himself.”

    RE: Deerhawke @ 403

  163. 413
    seamille says:

    RE: Doug @ 410
    “The yield curve can be inverted without a subsequent recession, but a recession cannot happen without being previously forecasted by an inverted yield curve. ”

    We have had recessions prior to 1954 without an inverted yield curve. Given the level of monetary policy distortion over the last 10 years, anything is possible. Although I still look at it as a leading indicator, I don’t agree with the absolute statement. If jobless claims start to rise significantly and housing starts crash without an inverted yield curve, then I would likely not take confidence in the yield curve as an indicator and would get defensive.

    https://pensionpartners.com/put-these-charts-on-your-wall/

  164. 414
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 405

    My point is that this local/regional economy is doing really well. All signs point toward that trend continuing. For those who are looking for the bubble to burst because of local causes (like HQ2), well that to me is simply not persuasive. (Obviously the caveat here is geology, specifically seismology and plate tectonics. That is a very different end scenario.)

    But all parties come to an end. This expansion is being kept going artificially with money borrowed from the next generation. I think the end of this expansion will have causes that are economic (irresponsible fiscal policy, over-heated economy, rising interest rates) and political (the Trump mess in DC comes to a head undermining business confidence).

    Maybe being all cash is not the right advice. You might want to keep that rental you bought for a song way back when. You might even want to hold something that you bought for a great price right now.

    But having cash is a great thing to help weather a downturn and having open-to-buy is a great thing at the bottom. A friend bought 3 buildings with 64 apartment units in good neighborhoods in Seattle in 2011. He was able to drive a tough bargain then. He was able to stabilize and refinance with HUD in 2017– super low rates and a 40-year tenure. He could sell what he owns now for 2.5-3.0X but will probably hold them to fund a rather nice retirement.

  165. 415
    Bubble Trouble says:

    By Deerhawke @ 414:

    RE: Eastsider @ 405 – I think the end of this expansion will have causes that are economic (irresponsible fiscal policy, over-heated economy, rising interest rates) and political (the Trump mess in DC comes to a head undermining business confidence)..

    LOL. Yeah man what a mess this Trump guy has been. Dow at 25K, GDP growing at 4%, unemployment at 4%, 400K new manufacturing jobs created since he took office, 2M fewer people on food stamps since he took office.

    WHAT A DISASTER!!!!

    Obama and all his MSM flunkies laughed when Trump promised 4% growth. I’m laughing now, all the way to the bank. And it’s so sad that leftists like you want to destroy this once in a generation economy because of the 2016 sadz. No matter what happens, HILLARY WILL NEVER BE PRESIDENT. It’s been nearly 2 years man, just get over it.

  166. 416
    David says:

    RE: Bubble Trouble @ 415

    Yes! Obama was driving a hooptie before he ran for public office. Now he is worth $Ms because of getting elected.

    Trump is worth $Bs and has lost money trying to help the younger generation and runs into ‘pathetics/sadz” like Deerhawke.

    https://youtu.be/hk6YMk2J-5k?t=19s Might as well transpose Deerhawke’s face onto this cluster…

  167. 417
    Blake says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 403
    Good points, but remember these two things about AMZ:
    1. They are still a retail company. Retail is cyclical and is hit hard especially hard by recessions.
    2. Their other big source of income is web services and AWS’s customers are largely startup “unicorns” still burning through their equity investors cash while not turning a profit. This line of income will also be hit hard when there is a downturn.

  168. 418
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Hoping to shine the bezos balls into your 80s?

    Get that jumbo loan now!!

    Chinese viagra prices are going up. Baby boomers need the $.

  169. 419
    David says:

    Here is one of Obama’s economists saying the economy is even stronger than it looks with 4.1% GDP growth. I don’t believe there has ever been a housing recession during an economic expansion. Doesn’t mean that one cannot happen locally though. Once Amazon employees start dumping houses, what will happen?

    https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1022823136855764992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1022823136855764992&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Fbig-government%2F2018%2F07%2F27%2Ftop-obama-economist-gdp-even-stronger-than-it-looks%2F

  170. 420
    S-Crow says:

    From the trenches:

    Met with a long time Chinese client investor who just drove down from Vancouver BC this afternoon. After signing closing docs our conversation quickly turned to markets where the client works in including local Puget Sound real estate.

    Takaway:

    #1) Many Sellers refusing in Vancouver to drop prices for several reasons: one of which is that it would be looked upon as a bad reflection of the intial purchase itself.
    #2) Potential is high for market dysfunction due to 30 yr Amortized loans with 5, 7 yr balloons. These people will not necessarily be able to refinance out if price drops start in earnest. More likely become ‘must sell sellers.’ Locals are clearly priced out and the locals that are selling are moving out far from the core Vancouver area.
    #3) The client has a family member who’s next door to a $4.5 Mil home that has sat vacant for 6.5 yrs. (That’s crazy!)
    #4) The sales drop in volume has been huge. The Chinese and other nationals (middle east & India) have driven the market and now with Chinese Gov’t reducing the “movement of money” and Canadian Policy makers imposing foreign taxation on purchases along with taxing “vacant” property, the market has substantially changed.

    #5) Confidant that in some micro local Seattle area markets buyers are clearly overpaying. However, the client provided a strong opinion that while a correction to clear out the excesses is ripe for occuring today it will not be similar to 2008.

    S-Crow

  171. 421
    Eastsider says:

    By S-Crow @ 420:

    #4) The sales drop in volume has been huge. The Chinese and other nationals (middle east & India) have driven the market and now with Chinese Gov’t reducing the “movement of money” and Canadian Policy makers imposing foreign taxation on purchases along with taxing “vacant” property, the market has substantially changed.

    According to the latest CoreLogic report, Sydney home prices declined 5% yoy. So perhaps recent tightening has begun to affect home prices worldwide.

  172. 422
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 414 – I am unaware of anyone who has consistently called economic recessions or housing bubbles correctly in advance. Many people has stayed “all cash” or precious metals throughout this economic recovery because of bad advice. A better advise would be to diversify portfolios and avoid concentration in certain hard asset class based on fundamentals. Housing is certainly unhealthy for buyers and investors IMHO.

  173. 423
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 422

    Buy high, sell low ? Simple as that?

  174. 424
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 423

    When things look good buy? When things look bad cry?

  175. 425
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Ideas for Seattle home closing gifts from agents:

    1) A chinese poo poo plater.
    2) A bottle of indian moonshine.
    3) A piece of sidewalk from a neighborhood with real sidewalks.

  176. 426
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 425

    Maybe also:
    -free tent to set up as Airbnb In any extra 8×6 available space on your property

    -a year subscription to Angie’s list for all your immediate repair needs

    -gift cards for all the great restaurants underneath the spheres, so you can dine under Jeff balls.

  177. 427
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 426

    A copy of “How to pick up used needles for Dummies”

  178. 428

    RE: David @ 412
    Cohen’s Law Practice Includes AT&T Clients and Other Too Big To Fall

    He can kiss his attorney profession good-bye thanks to CNN’s favorite whore attorney…both attorneys are rats and toast, fighting for mutual destruction. Trump is smiling. Mueller is hoping the DNC bought and paid for FISA Dossier that ignited the spying on Trump is not released, it already was and proves the DNC funded the dossier against the GOP, both GOP/DNC memos reinforce this basic fact….case closed. Redaction removal unnecessary. The FISA judge may lose his job and the Deputy AG Rosenstein may be impeached over this dossier crime.

    Ask any attorney if ya don’t believe SWE. I see the Flynn case and even Manafort case closed over the illegal DNC dossier causing the illegal 2016 Obama probes against Trump….probably the biggest deep state discovery in a century.

  179. 429

    By Ross @ 398:

    Going through my first real estate transaction (about a decade ago), I was utterly amazed at the incompetence and last minute rushes down for almost everything in the transaction. From the seller finalizing some addendum terms the morning of close, to escrow printing out closing paperwork as I arrived at the building, to my loan agent needing to hand carry paperwork to the local office to get funding done on the same day.

    That sounds like it was likely mainly the incompetence of your lender if the lending paperwork wasn’t ready a few days before closing.

  180. 430

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 418
    Hey Pedal to the Metal

    Have ya seen the new sex robots from China? The men are trading in their wives for a machine they can turn off and don’t have to support…..the robots don’t nag either….LOL

    I read the sex robots are addictive…even married men prefer them…there goes the two income Seattle real estate down the double household income toilet…robots are to blame…LOL

  181. 431

    By Blake @ 417:

    Good points, but remember these two things about AMZ:
    1. . . .;
    2. Their other big source of income is web services and AWS’s customers are largely startup “unicorns” still burning through their equity investors cash while not turning a profit. This line of income will also be hit hard when there is a downturn.

    And the ones that aren’t are moving to other cloud services–particularly those that compete with Amazon in other areas.

    It probably would be a good idea to spin that off, assuming they can deal without the cash flow it provides.

  182. 432

    RE: uwp @ 308
    And Overpopulation is Harmless?

    DNA generally controls our lifespan….not cooky theories. Ask any research doctor. Winston Churchill was a fat pig who smoked big cigars all the time….probably drank booze in big mugs too….he lived to be 80 something. Willy Nelson smoked pot like a fiend and has a black belt in karate at 80, he has a quick mind too….knows the lyrics of 1000s of songs by heart…

    Stop using plastic straws and the lower NWO IQs claim it will solve the world’s problems….LOL

  183. 433
    WompWomp says:

    Why are conservatives always so rude? David and SWE throw around taunts like a couple of schoolyard bullies. Do any modern Republicans and still have any class, or are they all yelling at their spittle-flecked computer screens while anonymously and chjildishly calling strangers names on ths internet? It’s pathetic.

  184. 434
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 432 – Willie Nelson has looked 80 since the 1970s.

    That Cohen, so-called, attorney will likely never practice law again. He clearly knows that. Which is why he is violating every manner of attorney-client privilege. Who in their right mind would hire that guy as an attorney now?

    Epically terrible public messaging that attorneys can not only secretly record you and disseminate partial recordings of a long-discussed legal matter, BUT also create a self-serving narrative about it.

    Disbar that ‘@ock’.

  185. 435
    David says:

    Can there be a real housing downturn if this is so?:

    American prosperity of Trump era marks real turning point in history

    “The latest GDP figure [under Trump] is a great number that aids our recovery from the awful 16 years under Bush and Obama.”

    http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/399324-american-prosperity-of-trump-era-marks-real-turning-point-in-history

  186. 436
    sfrz says:

    HQ2? Why not Bangalore? The Silicon Valley of India. India’s economy is expected to surpass China in 20 years. Remember to think globally Bubble heads. http://www.walkthroughindia.com/offbeat/8-major-information-technology-hubs-in-india/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sNZ_6fTY5M

  187. 437
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 429

    Don’t know if anybody would want to transact with me. But I would insist on a contingency that I get a full week to review all docs. Or the closing is cancelled and deposit returned.

    I’d rather not have the house than sign something I don’t understand, or be an enabler for someone’s incompetence. Computers have been around decades now. I assume all these docs are standard forms that a 4th grader could print out.

  188. 438
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 428

    Trump is indeed smiling. If Mueller actually found anything to attack Trump, everybody involved has pretty much discredited themselves. The FBI, prosecutors, Rosenstein and even Mueller’s staff have shown themselves to be politically biased. The whole Russia investigation appears to be based on a phony dossier prepared by a british intelligence agent. And then we have the media printing an endless stream of false or misleading stories.

    I’d sure rather be defending than prosecuting this mess.

  189. 439
    Matt P says:

    By David @ 434:

    Can there be a real housing downturn if this is so?:

    American prosperity of Trump era marks real turning point in history

    “The latest GDP figure [under Trump] is a great number that aids our recovery from the awful 16 years under Bush and Obama.”

    http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/399324-american-prosperity-of-trump-era-marks-real-turning-point-in-history

    We’ll see. GDP growth hit that mark a few times under Obama but the growth was never sustained because we’re an advanced economy. These quick artificial boosts look good for a quarter or two then go back to normal or worse.

    We’ll see if it continues or it spills into the housing market. Even with the growth, wages still aren’t growing so who will be able to afford houses?

  190. 440
    Blake says:

    RE: Matt P @ 436
    4% growth!!!!
    Obama had 4% quarterly growth 4 times…
    But the Federal Reserve is projecting a GDP rate of 2.8 percent for all of 2018; 2.4 percent in 2019; and back to the sluggish 2 percent GDP in 2020.

  191. 441
    David says:

    Remember, Obama couldn’t help himself in the market, he sure cannot have helped you! He made it all in office. Millennials have suffered a LOOONG disaster for their choices. Trump has come along MAYBE, just maybe, soon enough to pull them out of a hole.

    I’ve never met a Democrat who could explain what Obama did to feed himself before he ran for office. Maybe you can help?

    But one must always remember that Democrats could NEVER win any public office if they did not have the lowest half of the IQ spectrum voting for them! That lowest half typically vote Dem.

    By Blake @ 437:

    RE: Matt P @ 436
    4% growth!!!!
    Obama had 4% quarterly growth 4 times…
    But the Federal Reserve is projecting a GDP rate of 2.8 percent for all of 2018; 2.4 percent in 2019; and back to the sluggish 2 percent GDP in 2020.

  192. 442
    greg you says:

    I have 2 neighbors who have recently decided to sell. It seems people are finally ready to put their houses on the market.

  193. 443

    Its Horrifying In Today’s News On Home Mortgage Interest Rates During an Economic Boom

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/housing-market-slowing-thats-bad-sign-economy-103833729.html

    The 30 yr mortgage rate going from 4% to today’s 5% is a MASSIVE shift in inconveniently high monthly payments…if you barely qualified for an Seattle ARM loan, you are in deep doodoo now..if you already fixed your 30 year payment a few months ago, you’re OK, assuming you can simultaneously swallow the MASSIVE property tax and insurance rate increases. Escrow folks must be pulling their hair out on resetting the higher monthly payments…they try to leave a surplus.

  194. 444
  195. 445

    RE: softwarengineer @ 441
    Sorry Blake It Wasn’t You That Lied

    The blog references references that reference references…someone lied in the string of blogs…LOL

  196. 446

    Here’s How Microsoft Gets Around Not Hiring American Citizen Veterans and Other American Citizens

    Their “MSFT H-1B gold mine” has an organized crime agenda to defraud the Federal Government’s mandate on regulating/limiting foreign H-1B tech workers pouring into Seattle…they lie.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbFEgFajGU

  197. 447

    RE: David @ 433
    Yeah Willie Always Got Too Much Sun Wrinkles

    But I’ve seen heavy sun tanners look as bad as Willie at like 40-50…far worse too.

  198. 448
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 438 – I’ve never met anyone who could explain how Trump’s experience in driving 6 enterprises into bankruptcy exemplified how he could do well for the country or its economy. Maybe you can help?

  199. 449

    By whatsmyname @ 445:

    RE: David @ 438 – I’ve never met anyone who could explain how Trump’s experience in driving 6 enterprises into bankruptcy exemplified how he could do well for the country or its economy. Maybe you can help?

    I am hardly one that thinks Trump is a great businessman, or that being a developer is a particularly difficult type of business, but that type of argument is just ignorant–on par with what you’d see on “The View.”

    Business involves risk and some transactions fail. The only way to avoid failure is to not try to succeed.

  200. 450
    sfrz says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 443 – Not just Microsoft. It’s part of the PERM package that you must submit. H1Bs are already working , but you have to place the ad. Then you have to submit all applicants’ resumes and CVs. The workers can’t leave the job that is obtaining their green card. If so, they must leave the country or start the process again with the other company. (while they are OUT of the country, as they have no citizenship). It’s a tough situation. They are like indentured servants to that company. No benefits, no guarantee of staying here. But- the company gets the benefit of saving money by hiring a contract employee. I believe it costs the company about $10k to get that H1B process going AND a several year process. Contract employee chained to that company, to that particular job which was submitted to the USDOL (without submitting yet another massive amount of paperwork) That’s why Gates is quietly building up in India. Why move them here? Get to the source of the STEMs.

  201. 451
    Blake says:

    By softwarengineer @ 441:

    RE: Blake @ 437
    Obama Was a Joke In Comparison

    You lie Blake…Obama never broke 3%…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-27/barack-obama-now-only-president-history-never-have-year-3-gdp-growth

    Sorry dude… I forgot you are a Trump supporter and reading is challenging for you. I referred to QUARTERLY GDP growth. Trump just hit 4.1% quarterly, while Obama broke that 4 times including 5.2% the 3rd quarter of 2014. You’re a pin head!
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPGDPAI

  202. 452
    whatsmyname says:

    By softwarengineer @ 441:

    RE: Blake @ 437
    Obama Was a Joke In Comparison

    You lie Blake…Obama never broke 3%…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-27/barack-obama-now-only-president-history-never-have-year-3-gdp-growth

    You didn’t notice that you are comparing quarterly numbers to annual numbers?
    You didn’t notice that “Tyler” counts growth as a percentage from the last peak, and not from the starting point? Or you don’t know what that means?

    Zero Hedge is the most reliable source for knowing less than nothing. So, good for you.

  203. 453
    sfrz says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 440 – The debt donkeys are fooked. Goodbye leased Lexus. Goodbye garage. Hello bankruptcy court.

  204. 454
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 446 – Six is a lot! If you can point me to another president that’s had 6 bankruptcies, please do. This guy can’t get financing from American banks, but let’s put our economy in his hands. Now, there’s some real thinking.

  205. 455

    By whatsmyname @ 450:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 446 – Six is a lot! If you can point me to another president that’s had 6 bankruptcies, please do. .

    It wouldn’t be the number of Presidents, it would be the number of business people or maybe more specifically real estate developers.

    Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think Trump is a great business person. What he’s great as is publicizing himself–such as putting his name in big letters on buildings. Most people have probably never heard of Eli Broad, but he is probably worth at least 2x what Trump is worth even by the most optimistic views of what Trump is worth. And I’m sure there are a lot of others I’ve never heard of that have done better than Trump.

    This guy can’t get financing from American banks, but let’s put our economy in his hands. Now, there’s some real thinking.

    The reason that happened was the Democrats don’t have a clue how toxic the Clinton name is. They trot Bill Clinton around like he’s some sort of a prince, not realizing a lot of people realize how disgusting he and his family are. That and Obama spent 8 years insulting entire groups of people–that didn’t help either.

  206. 456

    By softwarengineer @ 440:

    assuming you can simultaneously swallow the MASSIVE property tax and insurance rate increases.

    I haven’t seen insurance rates go up so much, but some areas of King County have been hit by significant RE tax increases. People don’t realize how that impacts value, but it does. The same thing happens in condos when they significantly raise dues.

  207. 457
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 451 – I do find it fascinating that a sexual predator like Bill Clinton and a sidekick enabler like Hillary Clinton are still revered in a post-#metoo age. Or, that couple of lifetime public servants are worth a quarter billion dollars. It shows just how off the rails US politics has been driven. My only hope is that Gen-Z gets so disgusted with the steaming pile we are leaving them that they get some sanity back. I won’t hope too hard, though.

  208. 458
    whatsmyname says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 451:

    It wouldn’t be the number of Presidents, it would be the number of business people or maybe more specifically real estate developers.

    Are you suggesting that there are no skills or temperaments specific to the presidency? If a guy’s got a gambling problem, but not much worse than a lot of gamblers out there, would you use him as your banker?

    But to your question, most American businessmen and developers with long histories in their field have no trouble attracting bank financing in America.

  209. 459
    David says:

    I believe Trump is President and still a Billionaire. I also believe no one else here is a Billionaire.

    I also believe the Seattle Times will go out of business. I believe a more centrist publication will take its place once the slate is clean.

    I believe that Seattle’s penchant for stifling free speech will end.

  210. 460

    By whatsmyname @ 454:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 451:

    It wouldn’t be the number of Presidents, it would be the number of business people or maybe more specifically real estate developers.

    Are you suggesting that there are no skills or temperaments specific to the presidency? .

    No, I’m suggesting that most Presidents have been either politicians or military and not business people, and thus not likely to have been involved in a bankruptcy.

  211. 461
    Paulie says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 451:

    By whatsmyname @ 450:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 446 – Six is a lot! If you can point me to another president that’s had 6 bankruptcies, please do. .

    It wouldn’t be the number of Presidents, it would be the number of business people or maybe more specifically real estate developers.

    Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think Trump is a great business person. What he’s great as is publicizing himself–such as putting his name in big letters on buildings. Most people have probably never heard of Eli Broad, but he is probably worth at least 2x what Trump is worth even by the most optimistic views of what Trump is worth. And I’m sure there are a lot of others I’ve never heard of that have done better than Trump.

    This guy can’t get financing from American banks, but let’s put our economy in his hands. Now, there’s some real thinking.

    The reason that happened was the Democrats don’t have a clue how toxic the Clinton name is. They trot Bill Clinton around like he’s some sort of a prince, not realizing a lot of people realize how disgusting he and his family are. That and Obama spent 8 years insulting entire groups of people–that didn’t help either.

    Word.

    If you do not risk you cannot win. Trump’s business failures, when placed in context of his business successes, demonstrate a businessman who is capable of taking calculated risks and cutting his losses on the few that fail. A good quality in most leaders.

    Do these qualities make him a great businessman? Or the better question: do they make him a suitable President? History will tell its story. One thing is for sure, and that is that intellectually dishonest arguments fueled by Trump Derangement Syndrome change neither the fact that he is a better businessperson than whatsmyname is, nor that he seems to be doing okay as POTUS as well. Not my first choice but when I step back and look at it objectively, I just don’t feel the outrage.

  212. 462
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Paulie @ 457 – Difficult to find a more intellectually dishonest argument than the “Trump Derangement Syndrome”. If better businessperson is defined solely by money, power, and notoriety accumulated, then Al Capone and Pablo Escobar are also better business people than whatsmyname. But these people aren’t president.

  213. 463
    pfft says:

    By Paulie @ 457:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 451:

    By whatsmyname @ 450:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 446 – Six is a lot! If you can point me to another president that’s had 6 bankruptcies, please do. .

    It wouldn’t be the number of Presidents, it would be the number of business people or maybe more specifically real estate developers.

    Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think Trump is a great business person. What he’s great as is publicizing himself–such as putting his name in big letters on buildings. Most people have probably never heard of Eli Broad, but he is probably worth at least 2x what Trump is worth even by the most optimistic views of what Trump is worth. And I’m sure there are a lot of others I’ve never heard of that have done better than Trump.

    This guy can’t get financing from American banks, but let’s put our economy in his hands. Now, there’s some real thinking.

    The reason that happened was the Democrats don’t have a clue how toxic the Clinton name is. They trot Bill Clinton around like he’s some sort of a prince, not realizing a lot of people realize how disgusting he and his family are. That and Obama spent 8 years insulting entire groups of people–that didn’t help either.

    Word.

    If you do not risk you cannot win. Trump’s business failures, when placed in context of his business successes, demonstrate a businessman who is capable of taking calculated risks and cutting his losses on the few that fail. A good quality in most leaders.

    Do these qualities make him a great businessman? Or the better question: do they make him a suitable President? History will tell its story. One thing is for sure, and that is that intellectually dishonest arguments fueled by Trump Derangement Syndrome change neither the fact that he is a better businessperson than whatsmyname is, nor that he seems to be doing okay as POTUS as well. Not my first choice but when I step back and look at it objectively, I just don’t feel the outrage.

    LOL. If you think Trump is a good businessman i don’t know what to tell you. he’s terrible. he’s inherited his money. most of his RE projects failed until he found out he could slap his name on buildings. his dad illegally bailed him out in AC. His father deposited a bunch of money in his casino and they got in trouble.

    If he is such a good businessman why will no NY bank lend him money?

    Why does he have to get so much money from Russia?

    Everyone in the NY area has known he is a total joke since probably the 90s.

    His only saving grace is that idiots think his brand is some sort of luxury.

    He is a destroyer of value. If he had just invested his money in the stock market or REITS he’d have billions more dollars.

  214. 464
    pfft says:

    By David @ 455:

    I believe Trump is President and still a Billionaire. I also believe no one else here is a Billionaire.

    I also believe the Seattle Times will go out of business. I believe a more centrist publication will take its place once the slate is clean.

    I believe that Seattle’s penchant for stifling free speech will end.

    never mind. We’ll go to far off topic from real estate.

  215. 465
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 446:

    By whatsmyname @ 445:

    RE: David @ 438 – I’ve never met anyone who could explain how Trump’s experience in driving 6 enterprises into bankruptcy exemplified how he could do well for the country or its economy. Maybe you can help?

    I am hardly one that thinks Trump is a great businessman, or that being a developer is a particularly difficult type of business, but that type of argument is just ignorant–on par with what you’d see on “The View.”

    Business involves risk and some transactions fail. The only way to avoid failure is to not try to succeed.

    kary just dig into why Trump declared bankruptcy and read about his businesses.

  216. 466
    pfft says:

    This pretty much breaks it down.

    Donald Trump isn’t rich because he’s a great investor. He’s rich because his dad was rich.
    https://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9248963/donald-trump-index-fund

    Trump basically is even or would have done better if he’d just put his money in an index fund. Trump’s record looks even worse if you compare it to a REIT index.

  217. 467
    S-Crow says:

    It’s “Let’s compare property day.” Say we can afford a million bucks and want to be just a little farther away from my neighbor than 5 ft.

    Shoreline: https://www.redfin.com/WA/Shoreline/20206-12th-Ave-NW-98177/home/146216017

    Snohomish area (20 min to Everett Boeing Plant via Hwy 2/I-5) : https://www.redfin.com/WA/Snohomish/15220-88th-St-SE-98290/home/2530043

    Or, when you want to be literally on the Water and enjoy refined architectural property along with the finer things in life and have $3.2M as a budget: https://www.redfin.com/WA/Lake-Stevens/607-Stitch-Rd-98258/home/2554953

  218. 468

    The idea that Trump cannot borrow money is ironically part of the “Trump Derangement Syndrome” or what I call Anti-Trump Hysteria. And one of the sources of that idea is none other than Anthony Weiner!

    https://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2016/aug/08/anthony-weiner/anthony-weiner-lacks-collateral-claim-about-donald/

    I agree with pfft that Trump though is hardly a great business person and that a lot of his “success” is related to family wealth.

    This whole period of time reminds me a lot of Reagan’s years, when I suffered from anti-Reagan hysteria. Either I’m older and wiser now or I realize I lived through that I can make it through this too.

  219. 469

    BTW, I’m not sure if an Atlantic City casino is one of the Trump bankruptcies, but if so that would actually qualify more as a poor investment rather than “running a business into the ground.” Gambling in that city has suffered greatly, I’m presuming due to other competition.

    https://philly.curbed.com/2016/8/4/12376514/trump-taj-mahal-closed-atlantic-city-casinos

  220. 470

    RE: WompWomp @ 433
    OK WompWomp

    I’ll be a good little boy and just lie and tell ya its truth….then you can call me an honest Racist/Facist for supporting the wall anyway???…LOL

  221. 471

    And our other favorite topic–health care! Bernie with his usual gusto takes a good idea and stretches it so far that he makes it bad. Medicare for all isn’t a bad idea, but it is with zero co-pays.

    But in his defense, I don’t think these cost estimates take into account the reduction of spending on medical insurance. So money that is now going to insurance companies and then to providers will instead go to the government and then providers. You need to account for the insurance savings to determine the net cost.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/07/30/bernie-sanders-medicare-for-all-bill-estimated-at-32-6t-study-says.html

  222. 472
    uwp says:

    He had a 10 year infomercial in front of millions of Americans where he got to pretend to be a titan of industry. Pretty sad how many people have internalized that because Donald Trump played a successful businessman on TV it means he actually is one.

    What a time to be alive!

  223. 473
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 471:

    And our other favorite topic–health care! Bernie with his usual gusto takes a good idea and stretches it so far that he makes it bad. Medicare for all isn’t a bad idea, but it is with zero co-pays.

    But in his defense, I don’t think these cost estimates take into account the reduction of spending on medical insurance. So money that is now going to insurance companies and then to providers will instead go to the government and then providers. You need to account for the insurance savings to determine the net cost.

    Yes, government spending on health-care would go up, that is the whole point. You have to distinguish between “National Health Expenditures” and “Federal Health Expenditures.”

    If you actually read the study (which comes from a Koch funded “think-tank”) you would see that the plan saves money over current total health care spending.

    Look beyond the headlines.

    Here is an article that doesn’t come from Fox News.
    Even Libertarians Admit Medicare for All Would Save Billions
    Blahous finds that health expenditures would be lower for every year during the first decade of implementation. The net change across the whole ten-year period is a savings of $303 billion.
    ...
    But even if you take the report’s headline figures at face value, the picture it paints is that of an enormous bargain. We get to insure every single person in the country, virtually eliminate cost-sharing, and save everyone from the hell of constantly changing health insurance all while saving money.

  224. 474

    By uwp @ 472:

    He had a 10 year infomercial in front of millions of Americans where he got to pretend to be a titan of industry. Pretty sad how many people have internalized that because Donald Trump played a successful businessman on TV it means he actually is one.

    I had always thought the point of the show was to demonstrate how bad he was making decisions. Sort of a comedy of sorts. I had no idea people actually watched that and said: “That guy knows what he’s doing.” I didn’t even think the “yes men” he surrounded himself with really thought that, including family!

    But the real infomercial was the intense coverage he got from the press during the election! That made it tough on other candidates, and ultimately including Hillary too.

  225. 475

    RE: uwp @ 473 – A non-Fox News one had popped up on my phone, but that’s the one that popped up on my browser.

    I’m not sure why you said it will eliminate cost sharing–government taxation is cost sharing. And how that will work is yet to be determined.

  226. 476
    Justme says:

    Time for a look at the weekend inventory again: As usual, the KC/SFH inventory peaked on Friday night, and a psychologically important barrier of 4000 has been broken.

    07.27.2018 16:00 4073 (up 103 from 3970 last week)
    11.15.2014 13:00 4001 (last time inventory passed through 4000 on the way down)
    11.10.2014 11:00 4075 (last time inventory exceeded current value)

    The inventory is above ***4000*** for the first time in 3yr8mo. With the amount of bearish press that the housing market is getting the last two weeks, it would appear that additional soothing tales of stability may not be able appease either buyers or sellers this time. Time to head for the exits, it is getting crowded.

  227. 477
  228. 478
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: N @ 477

    “So he settled on a solution that’s unorthodox, but which suits him: he bought eight houses in Texas. ”

    Reminds me of our poster-boy for the last bubble – Casey Serin. What could possibly go wrong with this plan?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Serin

  229. 479
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 476:

    Time for a look at the weekend inventory again: As usual, the KC/SFH inventory peaked on Friday night, and a psychologically important barrier of 4000 has been broken.

    The inventory is above ***4000*** for the first time in 3yr8mo.

    Here are some other times the “psychologically important barrier of 4000 has been broken” in SFH inventory:

    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    2012
    2013
    2014

    It’s almost like it is a normal thing.

  230. 480
    N says:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/u-s-housing-market-may-be-headed-for-biggest-slowdown-in-years/

    “This could be the very beginning of a turning point,” said Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist who is famed for warning of the dot-com and housing bubbles, in an interview.

    Prices for existing homes climbed 6.4 percent in May, the smallest year-over-year gain since early 2017, and have gained the least over three months since 2012, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

  231. 481
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 479 – You just quoted the years before and after the biggest housing crash. Do you think inventory will be low following any housing bubble burst? 4,000 may or may not be significant but we will find out in a year.

  232. 482
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 481:

    RE: uwp @ 479 – You just quoted the years before and after the biggest housing crash. Do you think inventory will be low following any housing bubble burst? 4,000 may or may not be significant but we will find out in a year.

    I am not attempting to exclude any relevant data.

    For 15 of the last 19 years SFH inventory has been above 4,000 in July. I don’t know what the future will hold, but saying that 4,000 is some big important barrier is wrong. It has been the norm.

  233. 483

    I can’t believe we’re really having a discussion about whether having 4,000 units available for sale in July is significant! If you look at the closed sales graph above the closed sales for July have only been below 2,000 units four times, with the lowest being about 1,500. Even at those low sales levels you’re still talking about 4,000 being two or three months of supply. That is a pretty low number, historically.

    It reminds me a bit of people who look at a stock chart that’s been rising and then extrapolate the price out into the future, assuming nothing will change.

  234. 484
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 482

    Missing the point completely, and perhaps intentionally? The point being that it is exactly in the last 4 years that recalcitrant sellers have been pushing the inventory narrative, and wallowing in low inventory numbers. But now the seller cartel is starting to crack and rats are abandoning the sinking ship.

    (And why waste so much page space in listing all those years.)

    “I stand in solidarity with my fellow millennials hoping to buy homes.” -uwp

    Are you hoping to buy at the highest price possible? Is that what solidarity means to you?

  235. 485
    N says:

    Biggest Apartment-Construction Boom-Towns Are Not What You May Think

    No, it’s not Seattle. Denver is by far #1. New York isn’t even in the top 25. And it explains why rents in Chicago are collapsing.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/24/biggest-apartment-construction-boom-towns-are-not-what-you-may-think/

  236. 486
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 478:

    RE: N @ 477

    “So he settled on a solution that’s unorthodox, but which suits him: he bought eight houses in Texas. ”

    Reminds me of our poster-boy for the last bubble – Casey Serin. What could possibly go wrong with this plan?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Serin

    nothing will ever beat the housing bubble bench.

    http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2006/03/bubblicious-bench-flippers.html

  237. 487
    pfft says:

    WHen the housing bubble bursts at least we’ll have a RE/CEO type in the WH. Worked well last time. If he’s not impeached by then.

    Knowing Drumpf he’ll blame it on someone else and do nothing.

  238. 488
    David says:

    Still asking if anyone has sighted an Amazon employee house shopping recently? If not – get ready for the BIG unload.

    Per Schiller; The historic return on housing is ZERO.

    And FYI, Amazon’s departure is 100% attributable to Seattle persecution by the people and their local government.

  239. 489
    N says:

    4,000 alone may not be significant but if your hoping for double digit appreciation going forward the fact that a 40%+ jump in YOY inventory appears to not have been soaked up by buyers is a significant change and not what most expected as the general thinking was that the pool of buyers was very deep.

  240. 490

    By N @ 488:

    4,000 alone may not be significant but . . . . the general thinking was that the pool of buyers was very deep.

    That I think is the biggest takeaway, unless of course the lack of buyers/sales is due to too aggressive of pricing (also factoring in the RE tax increases).

  241. 491
    QA Observer says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 468

    I always thought Eric Holder and Anthony Weiner were going to run on the same ticket. I was looking forward to the, “Holder-Weiner” slogan.

  242. 492
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 484:

    Missing the point completely, and perhaps intentionally? The point being that it is exactly in the last 4 years that recalcitrant sellers have been pushing the inventory narrative, and wallowing in low inventory numbers. But now the seller cartel is starting to crack and rats are abandoning the sinking ship.

    (And why waste so much page space in listing all those years.)

    “I stand in solidarity with my fellow millennials hoping to buy homes.” -uwp

    Are you hoping to buy at the highest price possible? Is that what solidarity means to you?

    I’m not pushing any narrative. I don’t know what will happen to house prices. I’m not the one telling people to sell their houses or AMZN stock. (Or buy them for that matter)

    I am simply pointing out that there is usually more SFH inventory available in July than there is currently. (And it’s not even close)

  243. 493
    Brian says:

    By uwp @ 491:

    I am simply pointing out that there is usually more SFH inventory available in July than there is currently. (And it’s not even close)

    But the point is that it doesn’t matter what was “usual” 4+ years ago when the unusual trend of the past few years is suddenly reversing very quickly.

  244. 494

    IPhones Use at School Causing Failing Grades?

    https://www.yahoo.com/gma/cellphones-classrooms-contribute-failing-grades-study-183100013–abc-news-parenting.html

    Ban them at work for similarly caused lost productivity too?

    The tech companies are dummifying and destroying productivity America?

  245. 495

    RE: Brian @ 492
    Blame All the Recent Real Estate Planning Confusion

    On the quickly changing American economy today….its unpredictable at best…the old rules are moot?

    Or blame it on the open border party’s psychosis? They’re naming this neurotic problem, the Trump Derangement Syndrome lately….LOL….we had the Obama closed border party Derangement Syndrome before, but it never got this bad IMO…LOL

  246. 496

    Bank of America Now Requires Proof of American Citizenship?

    https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/article215688615.html

    B&A sure made a 180 degree change on that issue all of sudden. B&A was always open border party BTW. Predictions are getting cloudier each day…no more loose loans?

  247. 497
    uwp says:

    By Brian @ 492:

    But the point is that it doesn’t matter what was “usual” 4+ years ago when the unusual trend of the past few years is suddenly reversing very quickly.

    Yes. Let’s not look at history. Clearly it’s different this time.

  248. 498
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ 495:

    Bank of America Now Requires Proof of American Citizenship?

    https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/article215688615.html

    B&A sure made a 180 degree change on that issue all of sudden. B&A was always open border party BTW. Predictions are getting cloudier each day…no more loose loans?

    you can support border security and not want trumps racist border wall. Trump used illegal Polish workers(and didn’t pay them) and Melania broke immigration laws when she came here on a visa and worked illegally. Her family I think his part of “chain” migration.

    trump’s resort just imported foreign workers(albeit legally). he couldn’t find any american workers in a country of 300+ million people?

    Are his ties still made in China? Wasn’t he bragging about how many business supposedly were coming back to America? I will be impressed when he makes his clothing line here.

    Not my clowns. Not my circus.

  249. 499
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Keep forking up the $ for those pre-inspections.

    When the inspector shows you the termites, bump your offer up another 10% and waive all contingencies.

    Lead is another 10% bump up. Lead chips are delicious, almost as good as kale.

  250. 500

    RE: pfft @ 497 – You need to distinguish between being a nationalist and a racist–unless your goal is propoganda.

    That said, Trump’s “Mexican judge” comments were purely racist.

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