Summer 2018 slowdown link roundup

There have been a lot of stories in recent weeks about the housing market slowing down, not just in Seattle, but across the country. I thought I would post a quick roundup of some of the stories I’m seeing:

Back in early June I said that based on the May inventory numbers, “we could finally be seeing the beginning of a trend that points toward an easing market.” In the months since then, it seems that a lot more people are coming around to that point of view as well. Personally I think it’s still too early for hyperbolic headlines like BoingBoing’s proclamation that “the housing market in America’s most expensive cities is imploding,” but more and more signs seem to be pointing to a serious cooling, which is definitely a good thing, in my opinion.

5.00 avg. rating (90% score) - 1 vote

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

868 comments:

  1. 501

    RE: greg @ 455
    Read the Article

    It includes recent pictures and evidence….not your allegations from 15 years ago with no pictures or todays’ journalism actuals….big difference greg.

    Sweden is a Hades hole and the educated are leaving the country in 50% of country’s population MASS droves the last years…or MSNBC is a complete fake news agency? LOL

    I’d bet $10,000 you’re wrong in this case…LOL….Trump already mentions Sweden’s curses that you and your NWO pundits completely ignore. My sister was in Sweden a few years ago….lots of sparse empty streets in the residential area streets pictures. Didn’t see a lot of business traffic either in her pictures. Overpopulation is harmless….LOL

  2. 502
    wreckingbull says:

    One good lesson to be learned from the SB comment section is that when times are good, make sure your condo investment pencils out. If you are cash flow negative in the best of times, it is going to be a long slog when the rental market softens and a tsunami of supply arrives.

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2018/09/07/rental-glut-sends-chill-through-the-hottest-u-s-housing-markets

  3. 503
    Justme says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 480

    Congratulations, well done.

    RE: S-Crow @ 479

    Thanks for the informative report from the trenches.

    RE: David @ 481

    Where did you buy a new-construction condo, and what year?

  4. 504
    Joe says:

    Wow, my stats from Trulia are showing that home inventory in Seattle grew 6% over the last week from 2,658 to 2,828. There must be a sense of panic in the air for inventory to grow this fast in one week. Recent rends have clearly reversed. The window to sell at today’s prices is closing fast, and people know it. We could be in for an extended drought ahead.

  5. 505

    RE: uwp @ 465
    Conspiracy Theories

    Are a junk name giver for actual data used?…LOL

    I’m throwing my engineering and math degree in the garbage then…LOL

    You non-engineers [include a lot of Seattle Boeing engineers too, what’s left of ’em] most all drive foreign engineered cars anyway, but its not a conspiracy theory that Americans can’t engineer automobiles better than foreign engineers too? LOL, you have me rolling on the ground in laughter now ;-)

    American engineers are the best in the world at most everything. We set the mark.

  6. 506
    uwp says:

    RE: Joe @ 488
    Estately sidebar has Seattle SFH inventory rising roughly 4% from last Friday to this Friday.

    Similar Friday to Friday in 2017 (9/1/17-9/8/17) inventory rose 6.5%.

    WOW

    PS: It rose about 4.5% in 2016.

  7. 507

    RE: S-Crow @ 479
    Great Blog

    I lived in Snohomish County too.

    In the 70s-80s the real estate was about the same price with twice the land/house in Snohomish….its probably changed for the worse lately….albeit back then, all my Seattle relatives came to visit our Snohomish home, it was much newer and bigger.

  8. 508
    Matt P says:

    By uwp @ 490:

    RE: Joe @ 488
    Estately sidebar has Seattle SFH inventory rising roughly 4% from last Friday to this Friday.

    Similar Friday to Friday in 2017 (9/1/17-9/8/17) inventory rose 6.5%.

    WOW

    PS: It rose about 4.5% in 2016.

    In this case, comparing absolute numbers instead of percentages probably makes more sense because of the increase in total inventory at the moment.

  9. 509
    uwp says:

    RE: Matt P @ 492 – I guess. I was thinking more about seasonal trends and what “typically” happens.

    I know I get tagged a bubble-booster or whatever, but I’m just trying to be honest about what the numbers are currently, and what they have been historically.

  10. 510
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 483

    Re: renewed strength of the downtown construction market.

    Strength in the “construction market” often runs counter to strength in the end-user retail sale (condo) market or investor wholesale (apartment building) market. Case in point: Seattle, as reported today by Bloomberg with analysis from Zillow.

    http://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2018/09/07/rental-glut-sends-chill-through-the-hottest-u-s-housing-markets

    “Seattle is known for its hip neighborhoods, soaring home prices, and being home to Amazon. So why is its rental housing market experiencing the most severe slowdown in the U.S.? It’s part of a national trend. Rents in Nashville and Portland, Oregon, have actually started falling. ‘This is something that we first started to see two years ago in New York and D.C.,’ said Aaron Terrazas, a senior economist at Zillow. ‘A year ago, it was San Francisco and most recently, Seattle and Portland. It’s spreading through what once were the fastest growing rental markets.’”

  11. 511
    Matt P says:

    By uwp @ 493:

    RE: Matt P @ 492 – I guess. I was thinking more about seasonal trends and what “typically” happens.

    I know I get tagged a bubble-booster or whatever, but I’m just trying to be honest about what the numbers are currently, and what they have been historically.

    I’m with you, but there are many ways to present the numbers.

    For instance, say the inventory is 5000 now and 2500 last year, so the absute numbers are 200 and 163 respectively and I can say that the market increased 23% more when compared to the same period last year.

  12. 512
    David says:

    RE: Justme @ 487 – Atlanta condo in downtown. I think Seattle had the same problem though.

    I just sold a property in Seattle 2 weeks ago and I’m on the hunt. I’m seriously looking at Florida having made 2 trips. I very much dislike the cookie cutter properties around Orlando though.

    Took time out to go watch the Parker Solar rocket launch and kind of like the super laid back vibe in some of the coastal towns.

  13. 513

    RE: Deerhawke @ 471

    You start with a basic, benchmark principle and then you make decisions around it based on immediate facts and considerations.

    i.e. Thall shalt not kill…but all things considered…sometimes we do…but not without GREAT thought or urgency to do so.

    Some people use median income to setup their “basic, benchmark principle”. Others use other things like P/E ratios and ROI when it comes to investing and housing markets.

    I use the assumption that an upswing can end at any time, but the norm is 5 to 8 years with year 7 as the most likely cap. While I consider 2009 the “bottom” I consider 2012 the start of the upswing. 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016. Consequently the change is expected anytime after 7/15/2017 and stronger each end of season forward of that. 7/15/17 had a 50% chance of a change. 7/15/2018 had an 80% chance of a change. We don’t have to go further as year 7 produced the expected change.

    Yes, there is an overlay of Presidential Election on the 8 year cycle more so than the 4 year cycle. Though this 4 year cycle can be expected to act more like an 8 year cycle for obvious reasons.

    Now you put in your immediate needs and desires. In 2013 you could buy a house without too much constraint on your desires of which house, where, what. The market had enough steam left in it to correct for your “errors” in product choice.

    Today we are back to “thou shalt not kill” where the impetus to break the rule is at its highest level. If and when you purchase, you have to buy with the expectation that there will be a drop from current price during your ownership. You have to be more aware of rental caps in case you need to sell it while it is underwater for you. You have to set an expectation of loss and then decide that the loss in your case is worth the risk because of the reason why you are buying.

    Conversely, I recently have counseled people to sell who have given it serious consideration. Yes, you should sell…until your personal reasons not to sell account for your choosing to risk loss if you don’t. In the most recent case of someone who did choose to sell she bought in 2016. Was 72 years old. Could clear $135,000 net profit for her 2.5 year hold period. She decided at 72 she would not like paying for repairs and maintenance. She sold (still in Pending Inspection phase). She will rent and decide over the next year what she wants to do next.

    The reason to have a basic, benchmark principle and expectation is so that you are not merely throwing the dice or justifying your decisions based on nonsense like “the market will always go up”.

    NOW…you have to decide if “Seattle is Special” as the benchmark is not local. THEN you have to look at the immediate scene as in Amazon taking over the Expedia building and Kirkland Urban bringing in more high paid workers (vs Totem Lake Mall bringing in more minimum wage workers).

    Even if “Seattle is Special” enough to buck the tide, and historically going back decades the area has been, that special doesn’t carry far and wide. It’s isolated within certain commute to work segments and new employment upgrades in specific areas.

    The tide is turning and will continue to turn and bottom out likely by 2020 (which means before high season/Spring Bump of 2021. Real Estate is a Fiscal year, not a Calendar year basis.

    That is all I can say until I get some September and 4th Quarter data sliced and diced.

    But while I almost always agree with you, your comment that this flat period right now is a “buying opportunity” makes no sense. I’m not even sure why you said that. It doesn’t sound like you. Possibly you want to buy into a new project in Fall and are trying to justify it? Nothing wrong with that. But it makes me curious given just weeks ago you said you wouldn’t be doing that.

  14. 514
    sullim4 says:

    We are currently in the market and it seems like things are returning to normal.

    Well-priced properties are still moving pretty quickly. It’s not the multiple-offer, must have an escalation clause, waive all contingencies bonanza that was happening in the spring. However, if you have your home priced correctly it will get a full price, clean offer fairly quickly. We’ve seen a number of good properties last for a week or less.

    That said, there are a number of sellers (and perhaps agents) in denial, watching their homes sit on the market for 30+ days. They don’t stage, don’t perform basic improvements like a fresh coat of paint, a carpet cleaning, etc and price their home as though it was April and it sits with zero offers. They then initiate a modest price drop, and schedule an open house shortly after the price drop to drum up interest, but there’s very little traffic. There’s a house like that across the street from us.

    There was one home we recently toured that had the “List of seller demands from submitted offers” on the kitchen counter for potential buyers to see along with a preinspection report. I got a good laugh out of that because the report was pretty terrible – issues with the foundation, drainage, etc. It’s not exactly something I would want to see before I made an offer. Needless to say the property is still sitting there, weeks later, at the same list price.

    We put in an offer on one of those overpriced homes that was 50 days on the market, using comps to back up the fact that the pricing should be about 5% under list. They “countered” with .5% off list. We passed.

    In other words, the market is stabilizing and it’s returning to normal. Buyers can be reasonably picky and sellers can’t expect buyers to bite on overpriced, deficient properties.

  15. 515

    By sullim4 @ 498:

    There was one home we recently toured that had the “List of seller demands from submitted offers” on the kitchen counter for potential buyers to see along with a preinspection report. I got a good laugh out of that because the report was pretty terrible – issues with the foundation, drainage, etc. ,It’s not exactly something I would want to see before I made an offer. Needless to say the property is still sitting there, weeks later, at the same list price.

    One of the few (only?) times a seller pre-inspection makes sense is when the house is a mess. That way the seller knows the buyer has notice of the conditions, and will be less likely to back out. There are the usual downsides, like the seller having picked the inspector if the buyer doesn’t do their own.

    But of course the property has to be priced right for the condition.

  16. 516
    David says:

    RE: sullim4 @ 498 – Personally I find it a little ridiculous that buyers expect a private seller to stage a house.

    I’d rather a house to be completely empty, totally repaired, and clean as a plate so I can see what is going on with it.

  17. 517
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 497

    You are right. I am not buying now. I bought well over the last 2 years and have plenty on hand to develop and build. The big issue right now is that DCI is so incompetent. Getting permits right now has gone beyond absurd to Kafkaesque. The bureaucracy is completely constipated.

    But I am seeing other people getting deals that would tempt me if I were not full. That surprises me somewhat. That is what makes me say that the current rejiggering of supply and demand can present some buying opportunities.

    Some sellers went straight from being extreme optimists holding a death grip on their properties as the market went up to, suddenly, hair-on-fire panicked pessimists who want to get the heck out.

    I think this kind of thing is the exception, not the rule. I basically agree with the perspective of Sullim4. People are just trying to figure out again how to act in a normal market.

  18. 518
    Matt P says:

    By David @ 500:

    RE: sullim4 @ 498 – Personally I find it a little ridiculous that buyers expect a private seller to stage a house.

    I’d rather a house to be completely empty, totally repaired, and clean as a plate so I can see what is going on with it.

    Agree. I don’t need to see someone else’s furniture to know whether I want to buy a place or not because my furniture will be nothing like it.

  19. 519
  20. 520
    David says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 503 – My area is still going up per Redfin.

  21. 521
    wreckingbull says:

    By Matt P @ 502:

    By David @ 500:

    RE: sullim4 @ 498 – Personally I find it a little ridiculous that buyers expect a private seller to stage a house.

    I’d rather a house to be completely empty, totally repaired, and clean as a plate so I can see what is going on with it.

    Agree. I don’t need to see someone else’s furniture to know whether I want to buy a place or not because my furniture will be nothing like it.

    Furthermore, unless the seller spends big money on staging, the feeble staging that usually occurs makes a place real depressing. I once toured a place that was staged with a mannequin. No, I am not kidding. I just about shat my pants when I walked into the room.

  22. 522
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 503 – Thank you for posting. I’ve been waiting to see this data reported somewhere all day. The tide has turned. It’s not different this time. Hold on to your hats, folks! It’s going down…

  23. 523
    David says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 506 – Wait until Amazon actually announces the new HQ. They are going to pressure the Seattle politicians mercilessly. It will be UGLY and hilarious all at once. So juicy – almost better than s@x to watch if my last property sells reasonably.

    Sawant is going to screech. Maybe Bezos will announce he is a Republican and really p!ss the Seattle City Council off.

    BTW, isn’t this just a correction at the high end? You cannot easily have $70k drops easily for $500k house.

  24. 524
    Matt P says:

    NWMLS finally released their update:

    http://www.northwestmls.com/index.cfm?/News–Information

    Stats in the link on the left.

    “Single family homes in King County continue to command the highest price at $669,000, up 2.9 percent from the year-ago price of $650,000, but down from May when a countywide median price of $726,275 was reached, the highest so far this year.”

  25. 525

    In addition to the lessening of bidding wars affecting the median, I wonder how much of it is just Seattle going down due to: (1) The threat of an income tax (and other taxes); (2) Seattle’s poor handling of homelessness (and just about everything else; and (3) Just all the negative press Seattle has been getting lately. The Times’ reporting seems to indicate that Seattle is a drag on the numbers, and what little analysis I’ve done so far (which is very little) would seem to confirm that. If so though, the question is why, and the above are my three guesses. But it could also be Seattle and the other areas that declined the most were the ones with the greatest impact from bidding wars.

    And just to make the point clear, when I’m talking impact from bidding wars I’m talking about a house that is priced right by the comps selling for 20% more that list. That house wasn’t necessarily worth 20% more due to some crazy buyers (unless maybe every sale in a larger area was virtually guaranteed a bidding war on that scale), but that sale would impact the median. Take away that pressure and the median drops.

  26. 526
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 509 – If a house is priced right by the comps, aren’t those comps themselves the result of bidding wars, since we have been in this hyper-low inventory state for several years? It will be interesting to see the drift down given there is actually some inventory now.

  27. 527

    RE: David @ 504
    Property Value Averages

    Can be estimated by a private hired appraiser much more accurately. They can average fore closed and sweet heart sales [family sale prices] into the average value. Its actually the way to do it….stop throwing low data out. Sellers hate what I just said, but the King County Assessor office agrees with me on this property tax appeal method to legally lower your taxes.

    My friend did this and recovered 5 years of over paid property taxes …a lot of $$$.

  28. 528
    Deerhawke says:

    Mike Rosenberg of the Seattle Times writer confirms some of Kary’s prejudices against journalists.

    Prices are going down, down, down!

    But wait. In this sidebar chart here, the year-on-year figures for every area, all of them are…. up…?

    Don’t pay attention to that, it is all Cra..a..a..azy anyway because it is still more expensive to buy a house in Seattle than in New York City, LA or San Diego.

    Well heck, since that is true, I guess I should sell my place in Green Lake and go buy one of those cheap brownstones in Manhattan. Or maybe one of those cheap houses on the beach in San Diego….

    Most journalists don’t have a lot of depth in math, but do an especially poor job under deadline pressure. So they listen to some dim bulbs in the real estate world and that is the news we get. Maybe the data guy from the Times will tutor Rosenberg on how to write the story on this correction with more nuance and accuracy.

  29. 529

    RE: wreckingbull @ 510
    I Avoid Bidding at Auctions

    The prices are way too high.

  30. 530
    sullim4 says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 509 – I think a lot of the inventory is coming from empty nesters looking to downsize and/or move to a lower cost of living area. They want to cash in while the getting is good, and the astronomical numbers coming out in the spring forced the hands of a lot of folks who were using their houses as investments for retirement. A number of houses we have looked at have been held for 10+ years by the same owners in mature, established neighborhoods.

    Quality of life in this area has gone steadily downhill in the last few years – more traffic, higher taxes, smoky summers, etc. I definitely think these things are starting to impact housing demand around here.

    Regarding my staging comment from earlier, let me clarify. I agree that I prefer an empty house… but when folks stage their house with the personal furniture that they didn’t want to bring with them to their new house, it’s an epic fail. Put a little effort into making your house look good, and if that means professionally staging, go for it. I think many listing agents accustomed to the boom years grew lazy and frankly felt like they didn’t have to do much to sell their clients’ homes. That is definitely changing.

  31. 531
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 512 – I responded to your previous comment but it went into ‘moderation’ due to # of links. But if you care to google New York NY home prices and Seattle home prices, you will see the areas/boundaries used by Zillow. Seattle home prices is not just Green Lake but also White Center and West Seattle. Similarly, New York home prices is not just Manhattan, but also Brooklyn and Staten Island. You may disagree that White Center should be part of Seattle or Brooklyn part of NY city but that’s what it is. So yes, you can sell your Green Lake dig and get a house in Brooklyn for under $700k!

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4207-Atlantic-Ave-1A-Brooklyn-NY-11224/119971522_zpid/

    As to your year-on-year comparison, yes it is still up, but I think you could have made the same argument near the last bubble peak when y/y is up and q/q is down. I am not saying the market will crash next but I simply don’t see how it can continue to go up. This midterm election will probably have a major impact on housing prices (and the stock market and retirement savings.)

  32. 532
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 497 – I will never advise people to sell a house within 2 years of purchasing it. The round trip transaction cost alone is about 10%. Of course I am not a real estate agent…

  33. 533

    RE: Eastsider @ 516

    I didn’t sell her house, so my being a real estate agent is irrelevant. She had a NET after cost gain of $135,000 and she is 72 years old. I know her son and not her. I didn’t tell her to sell. I just told her the market was softening (via her son). Why she bought a high maintenance house 2.5 years ago is the bigger question. I don’t know. But for anyone who is thinking about living somewhere else, better to sell now.

    Whether or not I am an agent only gives me a slight advantage as to outlook. She sold with Redfin at a 1% list fee. So sharpen your pencil on cost of sale.

    I don’t change my opinion of the market based on whether or not I will have a personal gain at stake. I know what “fiduciary” means.

  34. 534

    RE: Deerhawke @ 512

    I have some insight on that. “Most journalists don’t have a lot of depth in math, but do an especially poor job under deadline pressure. So they listen to some dim bulbs in the real estate world and that is the news we get.”

    Usually that is not the case. Usually they decide on the headline and the story they want to write that will get the most attention, and then they call some people to add a few quotes. The agent or other professional may be interviewed by phone for up to an hour. They excerpt one sentence that seems to fit their preconceived and pre-written story. They get the appropriate quote via their slanting of the question.

    I once had a journalist write about me and call for a quote. He left a voicemail saying that his deadline was 4 p.m. same day, so he was sending it to print whether I called him back or not.

    When I turned down being on 60 Minutes, and several other HGTV Show invites, it was because the slant of the show is pre-ordained. It’s how they finally got an agent to say something completely stupid on national TV, i.e. commissions are so high and 6% “because the cost of stamps went up by $.02”. LOL!

    I interviewed the producers in advance and it was clear that they already had their story for 60 minutes. They were just looking for a Traditional Agent to shame on live TV and they edited it down accordingly.

  35. 535
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 512 – The article actually pointed out that prices are down 70K in the last three months, whereas during the same 3-month period last year, they were actually up 16K. I thought it was an interesting data point, as it points out this is a very different August than usual.

  36. 536
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 517 – Sounds great. But market condition should not be a reason to sell because no one has a crystal ball. If you look at home prices in Vancouver and many Asian cities, Seattle still has a ways to go. (A related example – Many individual investors sold their holdings many years ago believing the stock market was overvalued. They never made it back into the market.)

  37. 537
    Blake says:

    Lies, damn lies… and statistics!
    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-employment-report-has-become-orwellian-in-the-extreme/
    As you can see, the “civilian labor force”declined by 469,000 people in August from July. The number of “employed” dropped 423,000. The “not in labor force” increased by nearly 700,000. With these facts in mind (“facts” at least as far as the BLS numbers contain any shards of credibility), how can the Government claim that 201,000 “jobs were created” in August? How can CNBC say the “economy created more jobs than expected?”

  38. 538

    RE: Eastsider @ 520

    Each person should know what the expectation is for the market at any given point in time and then apply their own particulars.

    IF someone is thinking of selling in the next 3 years…they should consider selling now. If they don’t sell now then they can choose to wait past the point of decline to upswing…again.

    BUT…your “only owned it 2.5” years makes no sense since she had a $135,000 net gain on a property she bought for just over $400,000. The odds that she would be closer to the purchase price if she waits two years are very high.

    Market value is NOT a function of time. Cost to sell was not 10%. What’s your deal? She clearly did the right thing according to her and her son. Why second guess her? What good is data if not to help make important decisions???

    P.S. What does my being an agent have to do with anything? Obviously not my client or I wouldn’t be talking about her here. Too easy to track who she is if that were the case. I would never talk about one of my pending transactions here.

  39. 539
    Dustin says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 515 – I think your comment, including the example listing you linked, supports the argument Deerhawke has been trying to make. Seattle data includes sales in Green Lake and sales in White Center, yes – New York data includes Manhattan data and Staten Island data, yes. The point is that broad claims about the median at regional levels reflect different changes happening in different markets, so you need to look deeper to find out what is really going on. Values can increase in Manhattan but decline in Staten Island, and vice versa. Manhattan and Staten Island are very different markets.

    The listing you posted appears to be for a condo in Coney Island, but if you’re not careful when you’re analyzing housing data you might confuse the condo in Coney Island for a “house in Brooklyn”. There’s a big difference in local value between a brownstone in Red Hook and a condo in Coney Island, so you might not want to trade a $700,000 Craftsman style bungalow in Green Lake for the condo in Coney Island – one has high local location value, the other does not. I think that’s getting at what Deerhawke is trying to say, and it seems like you agree.

  40. 540

    P.S. Interest rates seem to be up and higher than they have been for awhile according to my recent email rate update. Something to watch next week. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen a new high there.

  41. 541
    David says:

    All you need to remember is that Obama constantly lied and inflated every economic stat that was LATER REVISED WAYYYYYYY down – months later after everyone stopped thinking.

    Trump’s economic stats are being revised WAAAY up after the initial numbers are announced.

    Any other heavy mental lifting you can forget about. Simplify life for yourself.

    To my knowledge, there has NEVER been a housing crash during an economic expansion.

    By Blake @ 521:

    Lies, damn lies… and statistics!
    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-employment-report-has-become-orwellian-in-the-extreme/
    As you can see, the “civilian labor force”declined by 469,000 people in August from July. The number of “employed” dropped 423,000. The “not in labor force” increased by nearly 700,000. With these facts in mind (“facts” at least as far as the BLS numbers contain any shards of credibility), how can the Government claim that 201,000 “jobs were created” in August? How can CNBC say the “economy created more jobs than expected?”

  42. 542
    David says:

    “The report overall “serves as a capstone to one of the greatest labor market recovery periods of all time, with the economy creating new jobs in an impressive manner, and wage rates finally rising nicely,” Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, said in a note.”

    Viva la TRUMP!

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/us-nonfarm-payrolls-aug-2018.html

  43. 543
    Matt P says:

    By David @ 525:

    All you need to remember is that Obama constantly lied and inflated every economic stat that was LATER REVISED WAYYYYYYY down – months later after everyone stopped thinking.

    Trump’s economic stats are being revised WAAAY up after the initial numbers are announced.

    Any other heavy mental lifting you can forget about. Simplify life for yourself.

    To my knowledge, there has NEVER been a housing crash during an economic expansion.

    By Blake @ 521:

    Lies, damn lies… and statistics!
    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-employment-report-has-become-orwellian-in-the-extreme/
    As you can see, the “civilian labor force”declined by 469,000 people in August from July. The number of “employed” dropped 423,000. The “not in labor force” increased by nearly 700,000. With these facts in mind (“facts” at least as far as the BLS numbers contain any shards of credibility), how can the Government claim that 201,000 “jobs were created” in August? How can CNBC say the “economy created more jobs than expected?”

    Not true of course. June was revised down 40k and July 10k

    Was browsing through the jobs numbers – construction is booming, so a housing slow down would hurt the employment gains.

    Also information section – ie IT jobs continue to lose numbers despite what all the big tech companies cry about. They say they can’t find workers and every month the total number of IT works goes smaller even though more and more visas are handed out. What they mean is they can’t find workers who will work for so little. It stretches credulity that a country of 250 million can’t sustain a workforce of 1 million tech workers. There are plenty of grads, but to keep overall wages down, IT workers get imported or offshored. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues and we have own our brain drain from people deciding to not to both with IT anymore.

  44. 544
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Dustin @ 523 – We are comparing median home prices in different cities. According to Zillow, Seattle is pricier than NY city. We are not comparing the size of a median home.

  45. 545
    pfft says:

    By David @ 525:

    All you need to remember is that Obama constantly lied and inflated every economic stat that was LATER REVISED WAYYYYYYY down – months later after everyone stopped thinking.

    See now you are just lying. The economic stats are almost always revised. Do you have a source? Probably not.

    Suddenly Republicans believe the economic numbers? Before the government was lying but now they aren’t? LOL.

    “”Don’t believe these phony numbers,” Trump told supporters early last year. “The number is probably 28, 29, as high as 35 [percent]. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.”

    https://www.npr.org/2017/01/29/511493685/ahead-of-trumps-first-jobs-report-a-look-at-his-remarks-on-the-numbers

    Did you see another one of your hero’s campaign aides was sentenced for lying to the FBI about the Russian thing with Trump and Russia? Face it David they are guilty as hell. Why would they all lie if they didn’t collaborate with the Russians? They claimed no contacts while we find out they have had at least 70.

    Don’t be that MAGA guy who figures it out too late. You got scammed. Everyone in the NY area knew he was a con man. They are all guilty. Don Jr had the KGB in TRUMP TOWER.

  46. 546
    pfft says:

    By David @ 526:

    “The report overall “serves as a capstone to one of the greatest labor market recovery periods of all time, with the economy creating new jobs in an impressive manner, and wage rates finally rising nicely,” Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, said in a note.”

    Viva la TRUMP!

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/us-nonfarm-payrolls-aug-2018.html

    Wasn’t wage growth just negative YOY? Wait till those tariffs kick in. Monthly job growth under Obama and Trump has been good but not great.

  47. 547
    pfft says:

    LOL.

    “”The unemployment rate is not real,” Mnuchin told the Senate Finance Committee. “I’ve traveled for the last year. I’ve seen this.”

    MORE LOLs.

    “White House spokesman Sean Spicer said in a press conference he doesn’t expect Trump to give the new report much attention:

    “He’s not focused on statistics as much as he is on whether the American people are doing better as a whole.”

    Not enough LOLs.

    Now of course they are all about the unemployment rate and it might as well come from God himself.

  48. 548
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 515

    I lived in NYC for a decade in the 1980’s. The first property I ever bought was there. I still have a lot of friends there from grad school and my early professional years.

    Yes it is possible to live in far Staten Island or Far Brooklyn or Far Queens and buy a house there for less than you would buy a house for in Seattle. But nobody in New York views that as living in New York City. If you live there and work in the city, count on a very long and exhausting commute. You could live in Bucks County or Philadelphia and get in to the city faster. (I have friends who work on Wall Street who do just that.) We don’t have anything quite comparable here. I guess the closest thing is saying that Enumclaw or the area on Route 2 out past Index is part of Seattle just because it is in King County. But I think the commute from those areas would be shorter and more manageable. Remember that Brooklyn and Queens extend half way out Long Island. Staten Island extends half way down New Jersey.

    Take a look at the Redfin listings more carefully. As you get within true commuting distance of the city most of the listings are coops and condos– and they are not cheap.

    We are mainly a city of single family homes and commutable New York is mainly condo and coop “homes”. That is why the comparison between median prices here and there is totally bogus.

  49. 549
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 532 – I agree there are major differences in housing stocks. I just read that SFH accounts for 2/3 of Seattle’s housing but only 14% of Boston. When we compare median home prices, we don’t compare similar sized homes. Otherwise how do we compare Seattle home prices to cities such as Tokyo? Median home price is just one of the metrics but it doesn’t make the comparison invalid.

  50. 550
    Justme says:

    Time for the weekend update on for-sale inventory. The post-Labor Day weekend data indicates new sellers outnumbering buyers, as exhibited by a good-sized increase in the listing inventory. The King County SFH for-sale listings increased by 230 from last week to 4600, a number last surpassed on 19.Oct 2014. As usual, inventory peaked on Friday evening.

    09.07.2018 19:00 4600 (up 230 from 4370 last week)
    10.19.2014 21:00 4603 (last time for-sale inventory suprassed today’s number)
    08.31.2018 19:00 4370 (down 103 from 4473 last week)
    08.24.2018 17:00 4473 (up 112 from 4361 last week
    08.17.2018 18:00 4361 (up 88 from 4273 last week)
    09.08.2017 19:00 2932 (2018 friday after labor day)
    09.01.2017 17:00 2698 (2017 friday before labor day)
    08.25.2017 23:00 2954 (2017 two fridays before labor day)

    The crowd at the exits of the housing market reached a new high. Time for wannabe sellers to get cracking on that new listing, and to price it properly, if they want to beat the competition.

  51. 551
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 534

    Am I being too mild in my characterizations? Here is what Mike Rosenberg said in Seattle Times:

    “The number of homes for sale across King County surged up 66 percent in the past year — and 86 percent just in the city of Seattle — the biggest rise in more than a decade. “

  52. 552
    Justme says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 503

    @Ardell, do you have any thoughts on why Kirkland and Skyway specifically are the only two locations (and I think first two locations so far) exhibiting YOY drops in the median transacted/sold price, according to the data map in the SeattleTimes article?

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-home-prices-drop-by-70000-in-three-months-as-market-cooldown-continues/

  53. 553
    sfrz says:

    “The thought of I’ll just throw a for sale sign in my front yard on Thursday and have a crowd of crazed buyers offering $15,000 to $25,000 over my asking price is nearly over. A shift in our real estate market is taking place.”
    http://www.marysvilleglobe.com/opinion/home-selling-starting-to-cool-off/
    Todd’s buzzwords for “Don’t panic!” Same used home salesman spiel”
    *shift you are seeing shouldn’t cause any alarm;
    *nor should it stop you from moving forward;
    *Home prices are still going to appreciate.

  54. 554

    Did Anyone Catch the Oxymoron “Summer Slow Down”

    Title for Tim’s article?

    My gosh, Summer is when the market is suppose to sizzle and reaches its peak, all the Bubbleheads know that…..slow down? Sounds weird and apocalyptic to me. This new Trump economy booming on tax cuts, foreign country tariff cuts and making the WTO the blame; is unpredictable as Hades [especially mortgage interest rates]. The old rules are a joke now? Wait until manufacturing engineering is back in Seattle again, granny bar the door?….I’d buy in Seattle then too…LOL

  55. 555
    sfrz says:

    “In Clark County, inventory doubled from a year ago to lead the list based on percentage gains. King County was runner-up with a 74.3 percent increase, rising from 3,329 active listings a year ago to 5,803 at the end of August. A slower pace of sales also contributed to the boost in supply. ‘The Puget Sound residential housing market remains positive, though the market has transitioned from a frenzied state to one of strong sales activity,’ remarked J. Lennox Scott, CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.”

    “George Moorhead, designated broker at Bentley Properties, commented on buyers ’still sitting on the sidelines despite clear indicators.’ He believes, ‘This is the best time in three years to be aggressive in the marketplace’ given rising inventory, a significant increase in the number of cancelled and expired listings, and more incentives being offered by builders. ‘We are now seeing price reductions in new home communities as builders try to move inventory of completed homes,’ he noted.”
    http://www.northwestmls.com/index.cfm?/News–Information/page/Latest-Press-Release
    Salesman speak:
    *market has transitioned;
    *remains positive;
    *price reductions;
    *growth of home prices has slowed;
    *no cause for panic;
    *more balanced market;
    *The real estate sky isn’t falling.
    EVERYTHING IS FINE. SEATTLE IS SPECIAL.
    (The articles are posted on the HBB today)

  56. 556

    RE: David @ 525
    Forget the Negativity to Your Correct Remarks David

    The American people are ignoring the news now….they see more money in their wallet and more higher paying jobs seeking trainees now….its all over Seattle now… “help wanted”…

    Bring in the robots to replace Amazon, Boeing and Jack in the Box….we’ll take plumber jobs, electrician training and real engineering positions, etc, etc….make mine triple burger double cheese please…let Clinton’s WTO China eat cake.

  57. 557

    RE: sfrz @ 539
    Sounds Like the Trump Derangement Syndrome Psychosis to Me Has Hit Home Sellers?

    I’d learn to relax and get your mind back on solutions…before quickly jumping off the cliff like scared lemmings for overpopulation. Sit back and be patient, good things happen for those that plan, hope and wait.

  58. 558
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: sfrz @ 539 – My favorite trope is ‘now prices will appreciate in a slow, steady manner’ Yeah, right. RE has never overshot before, now has it? (It has.)

  59. 559
    Notme says:

    Cue the lennox scott
    permanently high the froth
    moss is building up

    -a bubble plateau haiku

  60. 560
    Deerhawke says:

    By wreckingbull @ 542:

    RE: sfrz @ 539 – My favorite trope is ‘now prices will appreciate in a slow, steady manner’ Yeah, right. RE has never overshot before, now has it? (It has.)

    Making allowances for the snarkasm, I agree with you. Real estate markets always over-correct. Right now, for some, it is definitely a buying opportunity.

    However, it would generally be better to wait until after the rain hits and the dark descends on us. The best buys I have made were between Thanksgiving and New Years. In our rational minds, we know that the rain will eventually stop and the days will once again get longer in January. But people make the most irrational decisions because of the weather and time of year. I am always heartened when I hear people say “I want this deal done before Christmas!” or “I want to turn a new leaf and have to be out of this house by the first of the year!”

  61. 561

    RE: Justme @ 536

    I have no thoughts on Skyway as I generally don’t work there.

    As to Kirkland, I run my own stats and so my answer is based on checked facts and not the numbers referenced in the article on their map.

    Kirkland Median Home Price varies greatly between its two Zip Codes of 98033 and 98034. So I always run those medians separately.

    I first ran the numbers for a 60 day period YOY of 7/1 to 8/31 to gather enough volume to be moderately meaningful. The most notable change was the drop in volume on the higher end.

    98033 (Downtown and surrounds) had had only 81 sales of Homes vs Condos in 2018 vs 132 for the same period last year. The median price of those sold rose from $1,020,000 to $1,280,000. For August only however the number of sales was 36 vs 57 and the median price dropped from $1,050,000 to $1,020,000.

    Kirkland 98034 always runs at a substantially lower median than 98033, both “Kirkland” of course. So combining the two is pretty meaningless.

    The drop in total sales was not as significant for the longer, 60 day period of 7/1 to 8/31. This year there were 114 sales with a median price of $780,000 vs last year 124 sales at a median price of $681,000. August only is 44 sales this year at a median of $780,000 vs 66 last year at a median of $650,000.

    Now what was your question? :)

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are hand calculated by Ardell in RealTime and not Published, Verified or Compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  62. 562
    John Dimas says:

    Question for the group; I have my home for sale and I did not realize that when I signed the Listing Agreement with my agent for NWMLS, the listing term is blank. Does this mean I am tied to her until she releases us from the contract?

  63. 563
    Joe says:

    I just updated by inventory counts on Trulia and it looks like inventory is increasing at a rate of 1-2% per day. Sellers see to be panicking out there.

    Looking at the sales history of properties for sale over $1M on the East Side, it looks like the bulk of sellers are retirees that have been in the homes for 15 years or more. Most other sellers are flippers or transients that have owned the homes less than five years. There are very few homes for sale where the sellers have been in the home 5 to 15 years.

    Flippers, transients, and retirees. Very interesting. These are motivated sellers that want out near the top. Problem is, we’re already down about 10% now and by Spring we may be down another 10-20%.

  64. 564
    John Dimas says:

    RE: Joe @ 546

    Seller here, Joe how did you get in my head!..lol
    I think u r correct sir.

  65. 565
    David says:

    RE: pfft @ 531 – You’re busy trying to argue Trump hasn’t been successful, but Obama is busy trying to claim responsibility for Trump’s economic success.

    Meanwhile, Trump has undone most of what Obama did. So peculiar.

  66. 566

    By Eastsider @ 516:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 497 – I will never advise people to sell a house within 2 years of purchasing it. The round trip transaction cost alone is about 10%. Of course I am not a real estate agent…

    I don’t think anyone should ever plan on doing that, but in recent years when plans have changed the results have been shockingly good sometimes.

  67. 567

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 548
    Bank Settlements Getting More Risky Now?

    Hackers are infiltrating “wired cash” transactions in real estate escrow payments in alarming theft costs lately. They scam their way into the transaction with phony papers….

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/homebuyers-can-avoid-scammed-174025896.html

    More High Tech Thugs to worry about?

  68. 568

    Seattle Has Much Respect for Peaceful Religious Freedom

    China is the exact opposite, when it comes to Christians like SWE. Today’s news, its horrifying.

    https://www.apnews.com/c09b2ee4b71540c8a7fd6178820c5970/Group:-Officials-destroying-crosses,-burning-bibles-in-China

    Ford plans on building their small sedan in China BTW.

  69. 569
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Joe @ 546

    I had really hoped that the Tim would have updated his stats and charts by now. I am not convinced that Trulia is a good source of data. They have always seemed late and spotty and so I haven’t looked at them in some time. Maybe you might try the same exercise with the Estately figures above.

    Personally I think the way to go is to look at the MLS data itself. See page 2 of this link for the breakouts:

    http://www.northwestmls.com/library/content/statistics/KCBreakouts.pdf

    What I see from looking at the August data is the following:

    New listings for KC and for Seattle are about the same as last August. People were not rushing to the exits– at least not in August. If they had been rushing for the exits, we would see a real surge in new listings. This is the normal, frictional number of new listings– people dying, people leaving the area, people selling to move up or down, etc.

    Judging from pendings, total actives and closed sales, there is no question that things are taking longer to sell and so are sitting on the market more than a few days. We now have a whole two months of inventory rather than two weeks. No question, that is a big change, but it is a change back to a more normal market after a long time of really abnormal.

    Prices are up pretty much across the board from last August, not down. Granted prices are only up 3-5% and so that might very well negate any strong, lasting effect from the spring bump.

    I am still seeing a flat ceiling rather than a big downward correction. If you see something different in the data, make your case.

  70. 570
    Brady says:

    Prices have hit a ceiling because real estate became unaffordable. You will see that in the next affordability analysis that Tim does. Seattle is still a very desirable place to live.

    Let’s not overreact to this slowdown though. There are no signs of a big fall in prices and I noticed that while the median price went down last month the median home SIZE was also smaller. I know the homes in Seattle didn’t get smaller over the past 30 days. Sometimes numbers bounce a bit because of apples to oranges comparisons. The months of supply is still less than three months.

  71. 571
    Joe says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 551

    Median prices are DOWN $70,000 over the last three months as stated in the Seattle Times. Given the trend reversal, this implies prices are declining as I write this. Common sense says the additional .25% interest rate hike in Sept is only going to accelerate the price decline from here. Let’s not get caught up in the details of prior periods, which were solidly in a positive trend.

    We are now dealing with a reversal of that long-term trend, based on review of nearly all statistics. Downward momentum has now established itself and gathered some steam, and it will not reverse on a dime. Clear evidence indicates prices are dropping, sales volumes are dropping, days on market are increasing, interest rates are increasing, and buyer sentiment has turned. The media is making sure everybody knows about the problems. Buyers are becoming scarce. If you think we’ve only plateaued for while, you are mistaken. The numbers are trending negatively, not plateauing. Surely you must recognize that inventory in Seattle increased 80% over the past year, and inventory counts continues to increase quickly.

  72. 572
    David says:

    RE: Joe @ 552 – I’m sure people will start selling their houses at a massive discount. And then move to the new construction developments that are everywhere.

  73. 573
    uwp says:

    RE: Joe @ 546

    From Labor day to this morning (9am to 9am) Seattle SFH inventory has increased 7% (311).
    Last year Labor Day to Monday the increase was over 10% (282).
    2016 Labor Day to Monday the increase was 8%.
    2015, increase was 7.5%

    Seems pretty typical.

  74. 574
    uwp says:

    By Joe @ 552:

    RE: Let’s not get caught up in the details of prior periods

    Pay no attention to the fact that inventory is lower than 15 of the last 19 years.

    Clearly the sky is falling now that sellers can’t sell their house in 7 days for 15% over list with an all-cash-waived-inspections offer.

    Which was totally normal and healthy.

    EDIT: as Deerhawke points out, new listings for August are basically unchanged compared to 2017: 3,160 vs 3,105. Truly a stampede for the exits.

  75. 575

    Some raw numbers, no filters, King County.

    Currently Active 6,724
    Sold 7/25 – 9/3 2018 4,012
    Sold 725 – 9/3 2017 4,895
    Pending Inspection 547
    Pending 2843
    Almost another 100 pendings in Feasible, Back Up, SS or other secondary pending status

    I used 7/25 to 9/3 as later sales may not have been posted by the agents yet and 7/25 to present gives the more recent weakness data. Of course by the time we get to September closed numbers, the pendings will be up a lot from present. But nice to have a market point as of now.

    Required Disclosure: Stats included in this comment are hand calculated in Real Time by Ardell and are not Published, Verified or Compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  76. 576
    Dustin says:

    By Joe @ 552:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 551

    Clear evidence indicates prices are dropping, sales volumes are dropping, days on market are increasing, interest rates are increasing, and buyer sentiment has turned. The media is making sure everybody knows about the problems. Buyers are becoming scarce. If you think we’ve only plateaued for while, you are mistaken. The numbers are trending negatively, not plateauing.

    I think I’d agree with you about the negative trend emerging – housing prices seem overdue for a correction. I’m not sure buyers are becoming scarce, though. Most of what I’ve read would suggest this is happening mainly at the higher end of the market. It’s also not clear to me that declining prices will make housing more affordable if earnings remain high and trends in rising interest and tax rates continue to make lower prices more expensive. There’s also the inflation rate to consider, which could provide some resistance to declining prices.

  77. 577
    ess says:

    While the housing bears are celebrating the slowing and or decline of prices in Seattle and area real estate, it still isn’t a bargain for those buyers who are not purchasing with 100% cash and thus must finance their purchase. The lower prices are offset by the increased cost of borrowing money over the past year. Thus if one is not an all cash buyer, there is a very real likelihood that the mortgage payment will be about the same, if not more. And it appears that mortgage rates, along with most interest rates, are going up in the next year.

    And honestly – did anyone really believe that the double digit price increases would continue on for ever? Of course not. The price of housing will either be flat or even be lower for a while, and then it will go up again. Increased population, increased cost of raw materials and labor, a lack of supply of new single housing in the Seattle area. as well as overall increased inflation and pressure on wages will assure the eventual increase in prices.

    Many don’t recall the days when there was outrage when the price of a single family house in the Seattle area went over 100K. Thus everything is relative.

  78. 578
    wreckingbull says:

    By ess @ 558:

    The price of housing will either be flat or even be lower for a while, and then it will go up again. Increased population, increased cost of raw materials and labor, a lack of supply of new single housing in the Seattle area. as well as overall increased inflation and pressure on wages will assure the eventual increase in prices.

    A lot of hand waving in this comment. How do you know Seattle population will increase at current rates? The same goes for labor and materials cost. There will be, with 100% certainty, an ‘eventual’ increase in prices. I have never once seen anyone comment here that Seattle home prices have hit a record never to be matched again before the heat death of the universe. The trick is defining ‘eventual’, and in our last correction, ‘eventual’ meant nearly a decade before prices recovered to the prior peak of August 2007.

  79. 579
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 545

    >> Now what was your question? :)

    My original question was about the numbers from the referenced August 2018 time period seattletimes data (from the map at the bottom of article). Meanwhile, I discovered something strange: The Seattletimes data does not match the NWMLS data, as can bee seen from this table

    Kirkland-Bridle Trails: ST: -5.9% YOY, 51 sales (code 560) NWMLS: +3.14% YOY, 80 sales
    Skyway : ST: -6.5% YOY, 29 sales (code 360) NWMLS: -3.58% YOY, 36 sales

    I was struck by the fact that these and only these subregions of King County had negative median price YOY changes in Aug 2018. But the NWMLS data does not match! As an aside, the Ardell collected data was 60-day, by zip code (not neighborhood/region code), and from Kirkland, and did not include Bridle Trails. Ardell found no negative YOY numbers. I can see why Ardell’s 60-day zip-based non-Bridle-Trails data does not match anything else, but why does ST Aug data not match NWMLS Aug data? Does anyone KNOW with certainty, or at least have some information about what is the source of the discrepancy?

  80. 580
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Joe @ 552

    Joe, by all means, if feeling the pulse and sensing the momentum works for you, go with it. Make your decisions on the basis of your gut or what others tell you. I admit I was born wired to make decisions that way.

    But over time I have learned that the people who keep coming back to the poker table are those who can calculate the odds and the outs.

  81. 581
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 559

    I am going to disagree with your terminology. We have had lots and lots of corrections and recessions in the period since 1929. However, 2008 was a little different in degree. It was white knuckle close to being a depression.

    Let’s not forget what normal economics looks like just because we recently went through a major economic event.

    Or are you arguing that all future corrections are going to be like 2008?

  82. 582
    ess says:

    By wreckingbull @ 559:

    By ess @ 558:

    The price of housing will either be flat or even be lower for a while, and then it will go up again. Increased population, increased cost of raw materials and labor, a lack of supply of new single housing in the Seattle area. as well as overall increased inflation and pressure on wages will assure the eventual increase in prices.

    A lot of hand waving in this comment. How do you know Seattle population will increase at current rates? The same goes for labor and materials cost. There will be, with 100% certainty, an ‘eventual’ increase in prices. I have never once seen anyone comment here that Seattle home prices have hit a record never to be matched again before the heat death of the universe. The trick is defining ‘eventual’, and in our last correction, ‘eventual’ meant nearly a decade before prices recovered to the prior peak of August 2007.

    The country is urbanizing, and population is increasing through natural births and immigration. Regardless of talk of deflation, prices over time increase because of government spending policies. They will never get spending under control – so inflating the currency is always a good way to help resolve that issue. Restrictive land and construction policies have been enacted over the past 30 -40 years, and they are only going to get more draconian over time. There are few if any starter single family homes under construction in the immediate Seattle area. People still want to live in the Seattle area because of its mild climate, beauty and jobs regardless of how it is getting messed up by foolish local government policies.

    My perspective comes from being in the Seattle and area real estate market one way or another for about 45 years, focusing on single family homes. I have seen all of the ups and down before, including an even more draconian real estate decline in the 70s. I actually drove by the sign quite often that said “Will the last person in Seattle please turn out the lights”. Guess what – never did have to turn out the lights.

  83. 583
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 555

    >>Pay no attention to the fact that inventory is lower than 15 of the last 19 years.

    Are you ever going to stop making that same cockamamie argument? The inventory is the highest in 4 consecutive years. That *is* significant right now. The end-of-month inventory is also still lower than 15 of the last 19 years (Tim’s monthly data). That is NOT significant when it comes to upcoming price changes.

    Prices are also higher than ALL 19 of the previous 19 years. That means that the prices must be MUCH too high, right? And can only go down, right? Or does your type of logic not apply when the conclusion is not to your liking?

  84. 584
    uwp says:

    Did you know our current inventory “high” is lower than the lowest month in:

    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011

    Do we have fewer people needing/wanting homes?

  85. 585
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 564:

    RE:
    Are you ever going to stop making that same cockamamie argument?

    It’s not an argument.
    It’s a fact, inventory is historically low. Not the lowest of all time, but lower than normal.

    You point to inventory matching 2014 as a sign of doom, I look back at 2014 and see SeattleBubble headlining articles about how tight inventory is.

    2016 and 2017 broke people into thinking that a half months of supply was normal. It’s not. Those years are the outlier.

  86. 586

    RE: Justme @ 560

    1) My numbers are for all of “Kirkland” which has only two zip codes, 98033 and 98034. That would include those Unincorporated King County areas that use those Zip Codes, if there are any after the Annexation. Not sure there are.

    2) “Bridle Trails” is included as to Bridle Trails KIRKLAND. There is also a Bridle Trails in 98005 Bellevue, and that would appear in Bellevue stats and not Kirkland stats. Are you including them as Kirkland? Bridle Trails Bellevue is significantly different in many ways than Bridle Trails Kirkland.

    Since I have access to the data, I almost never use another source as I find almost always that the data is not accurate. I don’t like to speak negatively about Estately as I have a long history with that Company and its founders. But often their information is a bit off. I haven’t checked lately and I have reached out to the founders when I have found discrepancies in the past. But their main focus, just as Zillow and Trulia, is not about accurate data. For Accurate Public data I would trust Redfin more than “3rd Party sites” like Zillow, Estately and Trulia or others that are not Brokerages. Brokerage feeds on Public Sites should be as accurate as the mls for the most part.

    For my purposes I absolutely parse neighborhoods as Kingsgate and Houghton are miles apartment in every way shape and form when it comes to meaningful data use. But in my answer to you…I kept it pretty simple…and did NOT include Bridle Trails Bellevue. Why would I?

  87. 587
    Justme says:

    RE: ess @ 558

    >>While the housing bears are celebrating the slowing and or decline of prices in Seattle and area real estate, it still isn’t a bargain for those buyers who are not purchasing with 100% cash and thus must finance their purchase.

    So we agree that anyone that bought recently got screwed on the price, and anyone that buys now, or soon, will get screwed on price AND get screwed on interest rate/payment size.

    I can’t believe it: Ess is agreeing with me! You heard it here first folks. You are going to get screwed, no matter what, if you buy in at the housing casino. Perhaps it might be better not to buy for a while?

  88. 588
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 567

    I still have no answer about why ST (supposedly NWMLS) and official NWMLS numbers do not match. I know it is not your department, and I thank you for the insights on the finer points of geographic and zip delineations related to Kirkland and Bridal Trails with respect to Kirkland vs. Bellevue. None of my numbers were from redfin, estately, zillow, trulia or the like. Only ST and NWMLS.

  89. 589
    Notme says:

    6 sellers per buyer
    the market balanced will make
    das REIC proudly claims

    -a questionable analysis haiku

  90. 590
    Notme says:

    Page g-man mulder
    erik sightings in Everett
    one for the X-files

    -a supernatural haiku

  91. 591
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 568

    You are right. It might be better to rent and not to buy for a while. There are a fair number of rent vs. buy calculators online. And there are a lot of apartment builders who overbuilt these past few years. They will even give you a free month’s rent to get you to move in. Let us know how the math works for you.

  92. 592

    Amazon’s Besos Has an Answer to Driving Up His Profits By Lowering Total Worker Numbers

    “Put its employees in cages”…literally BTW. That will stop the long bathroom breaks for sure, but workers may go to adult diapers instead?

    See the concept “cage” design at Amazon’s R &D Frankenstein Laboratory….its not fiction though, its real.

    http://www.bostonherald.com/business/business_markets/2018/09/amazon_has_patented_a_system_that_would_put_workers_in_a_cage_on

  93. 593

    RE: ess @ 563
    My Dad Lost His Boeing Job Then

    He took a transfer to the Wichita Boeing Plant…

  94. 594
    Eastsider says:

    The factors to watch are 1. Interest rates; 2. Midterm outcome. Today’s MDN 30yr mortgage rate is at 4.72%. When/if it hits 5%, housing prices will likely correct as more investors/landlords withdraw from the market. As to midterm outcome, the stock market will be your best indicator. A lot of Seattle wealth is tied to the stock market. (Otherwise, how would anyone afford such prices on wage income alone?)

  95. 595

    RE: Eastsider @ 575

    One thing I have heard from my Amazon clients is they are just as happy when the stock is down as they are when it is up because their annual bonus paid in stock gets them more shares when the stock price is down.

  96. 596
    uwp says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 576:

    RE: Eastsider @ 575

    One thing I have heard from my Amazon clients is they are just as happy when the stock is down as they are when it is up because their annual bonus paid in stock gets them more shares when the stock price is down.

    Not sure if this is true.
    I was under the impression that they get paid in RSUs, so they get a set # of shares.
    But I don’t work there, so I am open to being corrected here…

  97. 597
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 576 – Your Amazon clients better hope that their stock will not go on a long term decline. Any annual stock bonus they received and kept will lose value. They may have a capital loss that can’t be offset easily. Best to consult some (former) Microsoft employees for their experience.

  98. 598

    By softwarengineer @ 549:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 548
    Bank Settlements Getting More Risky Now?

    Hackers are infiltrating “wired cash” transactions in real estate escrow payments in alarming theft costs lately. They scam their way into the transaction with phony papers….

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/homebuyers-can-avoid-scammed-174025896.html

    More High Tech Thugs to worry about?

    Yes, that has been a huge problem for a couple of years. We make sure that the wire instructions are picked up in person (typically by us). Also, for cash transactions a smaller wire before the full payment is a good idea.

    Also, a secure email system is crucial, but there the problem is the weakest link, which might be the client (e.g. a Comcast address).

  99. 599

    I’ve had a little more time to look at the NWMLS’s data sheets. The oddest thing is the at average days on market for the active listings is only different by one day–I would have expected that to be a lot more. Average days for the solds is up by 3 days.

    For the individual NWMLS areas, two have a lower median, one was basically flat and the others up, YOY. Almost all the areas are down in volume, and that makes it difficult for me to determine if there’s a change in mix affecting the numbers (unlike several months ago where it was rather obvious that an increase on median was due to mix).

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed.

  100. 600

    By Eastsider @ 578:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 576 – Your Amazon clients better hope that their stock will not go on a long term decline. Any annual stock bonus they received and kept will lose value. They may have a capital loss that can’t be offset easily. Best to consult some (former) Microsoft employees for their experience.

    There was a time when Amazon employees got into trouble with a declining market, and it wasn’t just dealing with offsets. I don’t remember the details, but they were doing something like exercising the stock options, taking the proceeds and buying more Amazon stock, it then declined to a value that if they sold it all it wouldn’t cover their tax hit from exercising the option originally. It was almost like a margin call, where the loan was the tax amount, but there was no automatic sale trigger by their stock brokerage (absent the employee setting one, which they didn’t tend to do).

  101. 601
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 581 – As mentioned earlier, I don’t think many companies use ISOs anymore. I think it is RSUs – much simpler to deal with. I worked for a dot-bomb company in the early 2000s and the tax implications of ISOs were a nightmare. I recall AMT got triggered in some situations, even if the shares were not sold and no gain was realized.

  102. 602
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 580

    I had been wondering about the stats on days on market. You are right. That is definitely counter-intuitive. Any idea why? Any idea what that says about the market?

    Is the DOM stat only for those listings that sell? Or also for those that sit? Does it include those listings that sell in a day as well as the ones that sit out there for 90 days without selling and are pulled off the market?

  103. 603
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 599

    >>I’ve had a little more time to look at the NWMLS’s data sheets. The oddest thing is the at average days on market for the active listings is only different by one day–I would have expected that to be a lot more. Average days for the solds is up by 3 days.

    What data sheets are you referring to? Link? I ask because e.g. KCBreakouts.pdf does not appear to have any days on market info.

  104. 604
    Anonymous Coward says:

    It’s anecdotal, but I have an acquaintance who listed a 1 bedroom house in SE King County the day after Labor Day. After reading all these stories about a cooling market, I was awfully nervous for them: older house with an odd floor plan, one bathroom (on septic with no option for adding a 2nd bathroom), some knob and tube, etc, etc. And 7 days later, they have 5 offers in hand and a contract to sell for a bit more than the redfin estimate (and well over asking). I figured a property in a non-prime area with some issues would be the first to have a problem selling. Either I figured wrong or the market was really crazy the last 12mo…

  105. 605

    By Deerhawke @ 602:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 580 – I had been wondering about the stats on days on market. You are right. That is definitely counter-intuitive. Any idea why? Any idea what that says about the market?

    Is the DOM stat only for those listings that sell? Or also for those that sit? Does it include those listings that sell in a day as well as the ones that sit out there for 90 days without selling and are pulled off the market?

    I think before we all knew that a lot of the active listings were junk, so that’s why the active DOM was so high. Still I’m surprised it hasn’t changed more. Now it’s probably more a combination of junk and overpriced, but still a similar number of DOM as last year.

    DOM stats are for each category, including pending.

  106. 606
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 605

    Data sheets?

    I have often wondered how to get good consistent data on real estate in the area. I have a couple of different agents who cover my area who send out emails about my neighborhood, the Seattle market and King County. But the data they show is all completely different and therefore, to me, pretty much useless.

    I had come to the conclusion that different agents were data dumpster diving in different bins. Eventually I came to rely on the Seattle Times and Seattle Bubble because they seemed to agree and seemed to come from the same source material.

    So there are monthly NWMLS data sheets. Interesting…. Can the public get access to the data sheets you reference? Or is that for agents only and restricted to members of the fraternity? Are there penalties for publishing them?

  107. 607

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 604 – There Was Another Blogger Who Had an Opposite Buyer’s Opinion

    They wish they never bought it at such a high price a couple years ago…but the ink is dry now.

    Each case is different apparently.

  108. 608
    uwp says:

    I guess you would want the stock to go down in the exact month your bonus was granted, but you wouldn’t want it to be any prolonged downturn. And you probably have other shares vesting annually, as well as your 401k. So, maybe some people are happy when the share price drops, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense.

  109. 609

    RE: Deerhawke @ 606

    There is no reason you can’t sit down with your agent and a laptop and plug in any parameters you want to get data. It used to be more common before everything was online and via email signature when meeting face to face in an office was more common. But no reason why it can’t be done now.

  110. 610

    RE: uwp @ 608
    Yes UWP

    They say only the rich elite get the Trump tax break on the companies, wrong, it goes to a lot of pension stock funds too…I don’t guess anymore [my predictions are getting less accurate lately in this brand new economy, without “continuous” Obama quantitative easing federal debt to prop the stock markets up; ya can’t compare it to Trump’s economy at all as a result]…but if I was hedging bets at a poker table I’d say Seattle real estate would suffer greatly in prices and sales if the 50% Trump stock boom the last couple years ever reversed itself. We’ll all all eat cake in that case…LOL

    MAGA isn’t just a hat worn by Trump deplorables….the NWO pundits grab for the red hat too when they look at their portfolio….LOL

    I just learned this factoid this morning: Japan charges no tariffs on American Engineered Car sales into Japan, but the Japanese still won’t buy our cars…they won’t buy our “cheaper” pig iron for steel uni-bodies in their engineered cars either [they’d rather use more expensive, less corrosion resistance quality scrap metal]. They’re too patriotic. We should be more like the Japanese on domestic manufacturing stuff too. They are against diversity BTW and their immigration is almost zero. Non-partisan factoids. No “I knew that” from SWE, I didn’t know that and a blogger got me researching Japan this morning for new factoids. Ya learn something new every day :-)

  111. 611

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 609
    Ardell

    If I ever need a great realtor to assist me in the future, you’re my first pick :-)

  112. 612

    Las Vegas the New Trump Mecca of Golden Real Estate Cash

    Bush pushed all the money to Texas, now Trump’s pushing it toward Vegas?

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-crisis2008-lasvegas/las-vegas-is-booming-again-and-bracing-itself-for-next-slump-idUSKCN1LR0YX?il=0

    Grab ’em up Erik….new batch of Condos to flip in Vegas now?

    http://lasvegashighrisecondoliving.com/idx/listings/trump-las-vegas-condos-for-sale/

  113. 613

    RE: pfft @ 545
    Pfft Wants Higher Taxes in Seattle

    He alleges it makes the economy stronger.

  114. 614

    RE: softwarengineer @ 612
    The Downtown Luxury Studio Suites

    Start at $250K…cheap prices in Vegas compared to Seattle….and check out the views from the windows…Erik is salivating now…LOL

  115. 615
    wreckingbull says:

    By ess @ 582:

    I have seen all of the ups and down before, including an even more draconian real estate decline in the 70s. I actually drove by the sign quite often that said “Will the last person in Seattle please turn out the lights”. Guess what – never did have to turn out the lights.

    I might need to remind you that most of the people who owned homes in Seattle in 1971 are now likely dead. This is exactly my point – ‘eventually’ can be a very long time, which is why it is important to buy a home based on objective logic and not emotion. That was the whole reason SB was founded – to step back from the ‘real estate is always a good investment’ drivel that has been pumped to consumers for decades. Hell, even my own well-intentioned parents hammered into me that I should ‘really stretch myself’ when I buy RE, as it such a good investment. Horrible advice which I have recovered from.

  116. 616

    RE: Blake @ 537
    The BLS Uses the U3 Number Inaccurately Estimating Unemployment

    Both parties do that. So what. The shifts in data are still a valid data trend. August had 201,000 non-farm jobs added to American August 2018 labor force whether your “conspiracy theories” against the BLS make any sense or not.

    Proof:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09072018.pdf

    Data is non-partisan.

  117. 617
    Blue Jay says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 604
    I’m a prospective buyer in Seattle. In the two weeks leading up to Labor Day there were almost no new listings in my price range and geographic area. It started to bring back the ‘Am I ever going to find a house’ feelings from back in the spring. Lucky for your seller friend it sounds like I wasn’t the only one feeling the desperation creep back in. I’m trying to tell myself to remain patient but I was definitely overly exited to see new listings again post-Labor Day.

  118. 618
    David says:

    Most recessions last about 6 months – unless Obama is elected and then it lasts just for his time in the public eye and is really a depression. Political correctness amok. I digress.

    Anyway, the housing sales slowdown started a few months ago affecting the Summer sales season. Meaning we are getting close to 6 months of housing moderation.

    Pent-up demand should be fighting its way back to the top again.

  119. 619
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 617

    Pent up demand to purchase SFH? Hell no. I think instead it is time to partake in the pent-up supply of rental properties, especially the multifamily kind. And the pent-up supply of condos when the multifamily rentals will not fill up.

  120. 620
    Blake says:

    Check out this graph. This indicator has a pretty good track record.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-10/goldman-bear-market-risk-indicator-at-highest-since-1969-chart
    … the markets (ALL assets!) are in nose bleed territory and the expansion is long in the tooth.

    Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be “Fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

    Just sayin’….

  121. 621

    RE: Deerhawke @ 606

    They only agree because they are regurgitating the same data from the releases. Anyone with access to the data would not be relying on that unless they are too lazy to run their own, which is always more reliable.

    You ask about Days on Market a lot and I don’t comment as I find the DOM data field to be unreliable. I can only get accurate data on that with a hand sort and so only do it in small subsets and not County Wide. I don’t need County Wide anyway for pretty much anything. Macro to me is National and not County, so I shift from National to my service area. No need for me to look too far south in Seattle or below very often.

  122. 622
    Notme says:

    buyer’s strike working
    watch the debt donkeys squirming
    just say no, don’t buy

    -a bubble haiku

  123. 623
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Notme @ 621 – you are on a roll! Love it.

  124. 624
    Blake says:

    By David @ 617:

    Most recessions last about 6 months – unless Obama is elected and then it lasts just for his time in the public eye.

    According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of U.S. recessions) the recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.

    In other words… the recession started OVER ONE YEAR before Obama was sworn in and ended 6 months AFTER he took office.

    Oh, I forgot… you are an idiot and no one here believes a word you type! Hah hah ha!!

  125. 625
    Dustin says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 620 – Another theory regarding DOM not appearing higher: maybe more sellers are pulling their properties and relisting when they don’t sell quickly. There could be increased fear that longer DOM will make their listing look stale, or some idea that a bidding war is more likely if it looks like their listing is new.

  126. 626
    Blake says:

    By softwarengineer @ 616:

    RE: Blake @ 537
    The BLS Uses the U3 Number Inaccurately Estimating Unemployment

    Both parties do that. So what. The shifts in data are still a valid data trend. August had 201,000 non-farm jobs added to American August 2018 labor force whether your “conspiracy theories” against the BLS make any sense or not.

    Ummm… no it was your hero Trump who claimed during the campaign that the BLS numbers were cooked and Obama’s unemployment numbers were “way off!” LMFAO… you Trumpists are really a pitiful lot. When fearless leader contradicts himself all his followers reverse themselves as well and seem blissfully unaware of it!

    Funny thing is: Trump was more right than wrong, but now that he is President all is good with the way the BLS calculates unemployment.
    Double-plus good!

  127. 627
    Notme says:

    Pent-up moss demands
    year-round maintenance upkeep
    moss-shack, baby, moss-shack

    -a musical bubble homage

    (thanks sfrz for the appreciation)

  128. 628
    Notme says:

    Exercised ISO options
    create a taxable gain
    sell shares to pay tax

    -an otherwise-you-might-be-screwed-if-stock-price-drops basic tax law haiku

  129. 629
  130. 630

    RE: Dustin @ 624

    There is a rule against that, but one of the reasons I hand sort. The problem is not that as much as we have two Days on Market data fields. DOM and CDOM. The CDOM was added to show Cumulative Days on Market. But I can only find a search field for DOM and not CDOM to run stats from.

    Data Manipulation is a huge issue recently and nationally. We used to be able to “freshen up” our listings by doing what you are saying. Here it is against the rules unless there is a change to the property within defined parameters. Last I looked it was a 5% price drop all at once and not by adding a bunch of smaller ones. If you dropped the price by 5% you could get a new listing and listing number. Another exception is if the property was substantially changed. If you took it off market and remodeled the home or maybe added a new roof, not sure what would qualify as a substantial change. But generally speaking no, not allowed to just relist it to make it look “new” to the public. When only agents could see it, we did it all the time. :) We also did it do change the Listing Number when going into a new year because the first two digits were the year, but we went back to 1 and no longer reset at the beginning of each year, so no need to do that anymore.

    If I could search by Cumulative Days on Market, the number would be more meaningful as I think the DOM changes back to 0 if it is a new Brokerage. I’ll have to double check that. But very often a 0-DOM has a much longer CDOM and I have to hand sort to do stats vs just research a given property.

  131. 631
    Andy Terentjev says:

    RE: Joe @ 563 – Right on. The previous bubble was driven by easy to get credit speculators and this one could be worse as cash only buyers, especially from Asia/Russia poured a ton of money over the last 3 years. The key is how quickly prices corrected over the past 3 months and can Tim compare this decline to when the last Seattle Bubble burst in 2009.

  132. 632
    N says:

    @ Deerhawke 591 –

    We are one of those families choosing to rent. Renting a SFH in West Seattle for $2,200 that Zillow has valued at $607k. Buying the same home with 20% down would mean a monthly payment north of $3,000. Each of the last two years we have been able to successfully negotiate down the offered rent increase.

    Obviously there are pros and cons to both sides but strictly from financials and cash flow, renting seems to be the sweet spot at the moment.

  133. 633
    David says:

    RE: Blake @ 623 – Obama’s rise in the polls killed the economy – not the election. Not that McCain would have been a major boon but it would have been better. The choice was between two Democrats.

    I don’t really care what people think of me. My line of work has entailed lots of people even hating me. Shallow thinkers of course. Not that I cared. I relished it mostly.

  134. 634
    uwp says:

    By Andy Terentjev @ 628:

    A $70K decline in 3 months. How does that compare to 2009:
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-home-prices-drop-by-70000-in-three-months-as-market-cooldown-continues/

    September 2009 actually wouldn’t have been a horrible time to buy a home…

    Most of the way through the price decline – down 20% from peak.
    Plenty of inventory to choose from – roughly 5,000 more SFH on the market than currently.
    Lousy agents washed out of the system by then.
    Desperate sellers.

    Sure it wasn’t the bottom. But you can’t expect to get it perfect (unless you are The Tim).
    Do the math. Buy what you can afford.

    When Seattle RE does decline meaningfully, you can count on those telling you to sell since 2015 to say “I told you so.”

  135. 635
    Brian says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 629

    What if the seller changes agents? I saw one recently that was relisted with only about a 1% price change. But it appears they changed agents.

    Interestingly on Redfin, all the property history regarding the previous listing was erased and all that shows are asterisks for the price changes.

  136. 636
    David says:

    Uh oh – Amazon is about to announce HQ2. The whole Board of Directors is traveling to DC.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/11/bezos-amazon-board-visiting-washington-no-headquarters-announcement-planned/?utm_term=.44e840f971d7&noredirect=on

    Maybe the reason Seattle has so many boom and bust cycles is because the people here are too unstable to sustain optimism. The nasty attitudes kill the golden goose.

  137. 637
    Andy Terentjev says:

    RE: N @ 631 – And rents are finally stabilizing and will decrease as the huge apartment build creates excess inventory. This will drive the hedge funds that bought millions of units in 2010 -2012 from foreclosure to finally start to sell these rental units adding to increasing for sale inventory
    . Mostly a California phenomena, but still affects the Seattle market. This is a different correction but a correction nevertheless driven by more complicated variables that are new to predictive analytics. The key is CaseShiller index which has shown for the last 100 years that residential housing tracks inflation rates. We are going to have a correction back to the mean. The Seattle economy is great, but all our tech workers do not get 15% annual wage increases. Yes, there is a percentage that has options in tech start ups that get sold and established tech companies like the ones we all know, but it’s a small percentage. The market will revert to the mean. Real estate is a great long term investment because of leverage, which gives home owners the ability to generate 8% returns on their down payment after costs to keep up properties. And this Seattle Bubble was driven by cash investors who are not leveraged and will sell their mostly high end properties much faster than anyone anticipates.

  138. 638
    uwp says:

    By David @ 632:

    Obama’s rise in the polls killed the economy – not the election. Not that McCain would have been a major boon but it would have been better. The choice was between two Democrats.

    If the recession began in December 2007, voting in the Democratic Primary hadn’t even begun yet. Let alone Obama v McCain.

  139. 639
    David says:

    RE: uwp @ 637 – If you really believe that Obama was good for the economy and that everything was fine just 2 years into his Administration – then I pray you never have any economic iinfluence upon my life.

    I’ve generally found Obama supporters more than willing to fell@te Obama the instant the lights turn down.

    Obama’s best year was less than the worst year under Bill Clinton in GDP terms. Obama was lazy and clueless.

  140. 640
    David says:

    I was just in a new housing development and Amazon Home Services has a HUGE wall mounted whole house smart system that they show up and configure upon closing.

    So I guess you can walk naked through your house and it will try to sell you underwear – or a tarp.

  141. 641

    RE: Brian @ 634

    I said “If I could search by Cumulative Days on Market, the number would be more meaningful as I think the DOM changes back to 0 if it is a new Brokerage.” You said agents but “brokerage” pretty much the same. Cumulative Days on Market does not zero back, so CDOM is the right data point and not DOM.

    When I hand sort the biggest problem is new construction since they often post one listing and sell many homes from that listing. The listing can say 252 days on market but that is for the entire development selling out and not that one listing. You pretty much have to leave out new construction to get a more accurate read since many of those sell “off market” off that one listing number. But it’s important to know new construction as the slump hit new first because buyers were afraid of the floating rate from presale to completion.

  142. 642
    ess says:

    By wreckingbull @ 615:

    By ess @ 582:

    I have seen all of the ups and down before, including an even more draconian real estate decline in the 70s. I actually drove by the sign quite often that said “Will the last person in Seattle please turn out the lights”. Guess what – never did have to turn out the lights.

    I might need to remind you that most of the people who owned homes in Seattle in 1971 are now likely dead. This is exactly my point – ‘eventually’ can be a very long time, which is why it is important to buy a home based on objective logic and not emotion. That was the whole reason SB was founded – to step back from the ‘real estate is always a good investment’ drivel that has been pumped to consumers for decades. Hell, even my own well-intentioned parents hammered into me that I should ‘really stretch myself’ when I buy RE, as it such a good investment. Horrible advice which I have recovered from.

    Tip O’neil once said that all politics are local. So is real estate, and whether one should buy or rent. That is a personal decision based upon many factors that have been discussed here. But statistics indicate that GENERALLY, OVER TIME real estate USUALLY works out better for a MAJORITY of buyers. Lots of qualifiers there and there are no guarantees as there are none in life. If one has decided that one is going to be a long term renter, and it is best for that person – I urge them to continue to rent.

    Any advice that suggests that any investment should always be bought or rejected no matter the particular situation is often pretty useless

  143. 643

    If you want to track the political motivation of the last housing crash, you have to find out what the impetus was for the change in August 2007 to NO zero down loans and a moratorium on Jumbo loans for about six months. The market came to a halt as a result of those two things AND the zero down people couldn’t refinance out of the high rate seconds and ARMS. They were promised a refinance after two years at time of purchase, but given the Purchase Loan was zero down they could not refinance even before prices went down.

    The Credit Crisis Crash of 2007 was a result of a change in the mortgage standards. Who did that and why is the answer. Why did they choose then to do it? Political yes, but in a sneakier way than you are trying to pin it.

  144. 644
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: ess @ 641 – Generally, over time, RE more or less keeps up with inflation. Add in maintenance and other carrying and transaction costs, and it it is a rather mediocre investment. That does not mean people should not buy homes, it means they should think for themselves and not listen to perma-bulls in the REIC.

    Was the crash of 2007-2012 only due to local Seattle forces? Of course not. The “all real estate is local” trope is in the trash bin of history. It was David Lereah’s tagline and of course he named a book after it in 2007. Oops.

  145. 645
    Andy Terentjev says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 643
    Agreed but the key over the last 25 years is the availability of data in the real estate market that was controlled by the real estate agents. We now have “live” data that creates shorter cycles to the mean resulting in much shorter cycles, which eventually could change historical norms.

  146. 646
    wreckingbull says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 642:

    The Credit Crisis Crash of 2007 was a result of a change in the mortgage standards. Who did that and why is the answer. Why did they choose then to do it? Political yes, but in a sneakier way than you are trying to pin it.

    Actually the change in mortgage lending standards was a result of other primary factors – most notably excess global liquidity caused by central banks, idiotic political motivations, and hare-brained financial ‘innovation’.

    Once the ball got rolling, market psychology also played a huge roll in accelerating the inflation. People saw their peers owning 2-3-4 rental homes and wanted in on the action. For an example of this sort of hysteria, look no further than your own client, Erik, who not surprisingly, has been scarce the last month or two.

  147. 647
    sfrz says:

    “‘The big thing I see is that competitors are more reasonable with their offers,’ buyer Liat Arama said. ‘So I don’t see those ‘Cash only, no contingencies’ offer competitions as much as I used to see, which is awesome. I think the market is becoming normal, reasonable,’ Arama said. ‘It was crazy; (it) was too hot. And it’s now the way a real estate market should be.’” https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/buyers-sellers-feel-the-impact-of-king-county-s-housing-market-cool-down/831141884

    Liat, the used house salesman, was most likely ratcheting up his frenzied debt donkey lemmings with those insane waivers and up bids as he walked them to slaughter a few months ago. Now he sees the market as awesome. He cut the suit to fit the pattern. No matter how the wind is blowing, everything is awesome. This is integrity.

  148. 648
    Justme says:

    RE: sfrz @ 646

    Sfrz, Liata Arama is a *she* and a flipper. You can see her in the video. She seems like a person that does not mind screwing people over in a big way. Looking at her and listening to her gives me the willies. I sense a major predator.

  149. 649
    Greg says:

    By Blake @ 625:

    By softwarengineer @ 616:

    RE: Blake @ 537
    The BLS Uses the U3 Number Inaccurately Estimating Unemployment

    Both parties do that. So what. The shifts in data are still a valid data trend. August had 201,000 non-farm jobs added to American August 2018 labor force whether your “conspiracy theories” against the BLS make any sense or not.

    Ummm… no it was your hero Trump who claimed during the campaign that the BLS numbers were cooked and Obama’s unemployment numbers were “way off!” LMFAO… you Trumpists are really a pitiful lot. When fearless leader contradicts himself all his followers reverse themselves as well and seem blissfully unaware of it!

    Funny thing is: Trump was more right than wrong, but now that he is President all is good with the way the BLS calculates unemployment.
    Double-plus good!

    Double-plus good!

    “”””The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power””””
    George really nailed it…

  150. 650
    Blake says:

    RE: Greg @ 648
    Indeed… George Orwell saw the future quite clearly. He foresaw permanent war and shifting loyalties. Is Eastasia our enemy now or Eurasia?

    I wish he could see that today, on 9/11, the US is threatening to attack Syria if they attempt to retake the northern part of Syria that is held by Al Qaeda!!

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-final-syrian-showdown-looms-millions-of-lives-are-at-risk-here-are-the-stakes/2018/08/30/e9788e9c-abc3-11e8-9a7d-cd30504ff902_story.html?noredirect=on
    “Idlib province is dominated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a hard-line group affiliated until recently with al-Qaeda. As well as being the strongest military force, HTS has also targeted civilian institutions, using arrests, threats and assassinations to bring them in line.”

    …”until recently?” Oh, they USED to be psychopathic killers, but now they are our allies and we must defend them? (From wikipedia: “Hayʼat Taḥrīr al-Shām, “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant” or “Levant Liberation Committee”), commonly referred to as Tahrir al-Sham and abbreviated HTS, also known as al-Qaeda in Syria, is an active Salafist jihadist militant group involved in the Syrian Civil War.)

    17 years in Afghanistan now… Last year the US spent $47 billion in Afghanistan…$47 billion! It boggles my mind, but over 1/2 of that goes to contractors and you know they have connections to lobby and keep the money flowing.
    This… is…. how… empires… end!

  151. 651
    Blake says:

    RE: Blake @ 649
    Oh… and yes Trump has done a complete backflip on Syria!
    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/09/is-donald-trump-going-to-do-the-syria-backflip-by-publius-tacitus.html#more
    … “Now Trump is chest thumping and trash talking Syria and Russia like the recently deceased John McCain. He now appears ready to lead the NeoCon Conga line into an escalation of the war in Syria: ‘President Donald Trump warned Syria and its allies Russia and Iran on Monday against attacking the last major rebel stronghold of Idlib province in the country’s northwest. “President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province.’
    (end quote)

  152. 652
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 609

    Ardell I think you understand that I don’t have one agent but many. Each project has its own agent and almost none of them have your background or understanding of the uses of data. Agents are in general are quite revenue focused, not data focused. The same, of course, could be said of builder/developers. You and I are both outliers in our professions.

    That is why this was a useful site for so long and it is frustrating now not to know if or when the data will be updated. The Tim kept it updated for a long time and we should thank him for that, but clearly he has other priorities now.

    Still and all, it is just frustrating to have to go through others when the data is there for anyone with a real estate license.

  153. 653

    RE: Deerhawke @ 651

    Most of my clients are data people and they salivate over the idea of having access. They often say “Oh my God! What we could do if we had access to the data!!!” It really is mind boggling to think what some of my tech whiz guys could do. Of course I can’t give out my password, but no reason we (my clients and I) can’t look at the data together.

    As to your having many agents and not just one, all the more reason you should have easy access. As long as you close your eyes after they sign in, no reason you can’t play with data at a coffee shop. Don’t you ever go get coffee with your agents? ;)

    When people come to me with an impossible “want” as to parameters of what they want to buy, I sit them next to a computer with me. I put in their list of wants and area and price and then hit “enter” going back years. When they see ZERO of that sold EVER…it’s better than my saying it’s not possible. :) At times I let the data speak for itself. It’s more credible than any agent advice. Before public sites, every agent did this (or many) with their clients. I have been happy to see Kary trying his hand at data for the last year or so. He was not receptive to the idea when I first “met” him. He’s doing a great job!

    I always did data because I was a stock and bond portfolio manager before I switched to real estate. No Brokerages teach agents to do that. I can’t imagine working in an “market” and not constantly doing data. But like I said…County info is just for small talk and cocktail parties and not particularly relevant in the real world of buying and selling. But that’s probably only true because I work in areas well above median. For median and below markets, County-wide is likely more relevant.

  154. 654
    sfrz says:

    RE: Blake @ 649 – Boom. Well said.

  155. 655

    RE: wreckingbull @ 645

    That is the opposite of what I am talking about. I am talking about mid 2007 when it got cut off (vs weaned out) like a faucet being turned off. That was what caused the crisis.

    Going all the way back to 1990 when I started in real estate, most of the “exotics” always existed, but were used sparingly. They weren’t created for the bubble. I’m talking interest only and sub-prime/non A paper. Zero down was just an experiment in eliminating PMI in favor of a high rate second. Being “self-insured”. An experiment that failed because the lenders didn’t reserve the excess money from the higher rate to be used as “insurance” for the “self-insured” part of the equation. They said WooHOO! and gave themselves bonuses. LOL! Very failed experiment.

    But still…turning off the faucet was clearly political without thought to consequence except as to the Presidential Election. Throw the other party under the bus to turn the tide. It not only worked…no one even saw them do it.

    What was the event that said NO MORE ZERO DOWN LOANS? On pretty much a given day across the board? No Jumbo Loans was just weird for awhile. As I recall, about 6 months. Pretty much crashed and burned the high end, especially high end condos.

    I try not to say much sometimes because the 2007/2008 bubble burst is not the first time I have seen EXACTLY that happen. It just didn’t happen HERE. Yes..during my lifetime and during my real estate years. Seattle was special the last time around, but no one was immune to The Credit Crisis.

    That is why it is important to watch the National impact right now. Seattle lags…and sometimes misses…always has in the past or at least since Microsoft came to be.

    Was “Will the last one out of Seattle please turn out the lights?” before or after Microsoft?

  156. 656
    Justme says:

    RE: Blake @ 649

    Thanks Blake, for your many good posts. What Hillary, then Kerry (begrudgingly), and now Trump is doing in Syria is insane. And it all started with that criminally stupid nitwit George W. Bush and his war-criminal handlers.

  157. 657
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 654 – I don’t follow. You think that the entire crash could have been avoided if in 2007 jumbo/zerodown/ninja remained available or were slowly confiscated from the masses? What about all the existing loans which were defaulting like crazy by then? What about the inability to rate any sort of CDO/MBS becuase no one even understood the garbage inside of them? Maybe the crash could have been delayed six months, but it would have even hurt more by then.

  158. 658
    Justme says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 656

    Agree completely. Another way of saying the same thing: Loose credit was tightened because so much loose credit had already gone bad.

  159. 659
    eric says:

    Thank you for looking!

    I’m an unlucky one brought a D.R. Horton house at Bothell with my pregnant wife. The house have a major construction defect and get flooded, the waste line wasn’t connected. 30%~40% of the furnished area flooded by waste water from the washer.

    I know this forum have lots of people looking and also have professional backgrounds. I wish to get some advices, and maybe legal advice and help.

    The restoration team from the builder started to work now. They sent two restoration teams, the 1st team came and tell me the drywall flooded by dirt water have to be replaced. Today, they changed to another people and tell us no wet dry wall needs to be replaced. and they say I’m pushing the 1st technician to replace the contaminated drywall.

    I had consulted some lawyers, D.R. Horton is making very good contract to protect them. We have no chance fight against them. Want to get some advices!!!

  160. 660
    ERIC says:

    I’m a poor guy brought a D.R. Horton house at Bothell with my pregnant wife. It was a new built. The house get flooded due to a waste line wasn’t connected with the washer. That was our first wash.

    The 1st restoration team here said the drywall contaminated have to be replaced, and it will be a big project. He show me the reason why need to replace the dry wall and rip off the wet wall.

    The builder changed another person today say, no drywall will be replaced.

    I consult with the lawyer; the contract are protecting D.R. Horton and we have no chance to win if we fight.

    I know this forum long time ago, need to get some recommendations. Thank you for reading!!

  161. 661
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 656
    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 654

    Just interesting to me that we are only a few days from the 10th anniversary of Lehman’s spectacular public immolation and we are still arguing about what what caused the financial crisis and whether it could have been avoided.

    It is a good opportunity to reflect.

  162. 662
    Justme says:

    The housing bubble was caused by people PAYING TOO MUCH FOR HOUSES. There were all kinds of greedsters, buyers, banksters, brokers, builders, developers, realtors, crooks, central bankers, lenders, flippers, fraudsters, FOMOs, wall-streeters, top 0.1-percenters, swindlers, enablers, owners, pushers, profiteers, landlords, appraisers, propagandists, front-runners and margin-skimmers involved, that participated directly or indirectly in the bubble and either benefited or hoped to benefit from ever rising crazy prices. At the expense of taxpayers, renters and everyone that needed to buy a house to live in.

    THAT is the real story. And it is the same story this time.

  163. 663

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 620:

    You ask about Days on Market a lot and I don’t comment as I find the DOM data field to be unreliable. I can only get accurate data on that with a hand sort and so only do it in small subsets and not County Wide. I don’t need County Wide anyway for pretty much anything.

    That’s similar to what I’ve always said about needing to find comps to determine the change in value of a house. Even the 30 NWMLS areas in King County are each too large to be useful for very much in most of those areas.

  164. 664

    By wreckingbull @ 643:

    RE: ess @ 641 – Generally, over time, RE more or less keeps up with inflation. Add in maintenance and other carrying and transaction costs, and it it is a rather mediocre investment. That does not mean people should not buy homes, it means they should think for themselves and not listen to perma-bulls in the REIC.

    But most house purchases are leveraged, and much of the interest paid would otherwise be paid in rent, so just keeping up with inflation would be a good result.

  165. 665
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 659

    I think you might have ended your list with “and other Capitalist running dogs whom I secretly envy.”

    Here is a good initial introduction to the Great 2008 Mess
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis–10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html?utm_term=.d9cb3f587b0d

    Still it is hard to get beyond the deep wisdom of the movie version of “The Big Short” . The Jenga scene is the real explanation of what happened, but using Margot Robbie to explain sub-prime mortgages– brilliant.

  166. 666

    RE: N @ 631
    You Must Be a Milenial

    My hat is off to your generation…I have deep respect for Milenials trying to make ends meet in this NWO economy. We think alike as a result and some of my best friends now are all Milenials…Erik, is a great example of a Milenial with common sense in flipping, he isn’t boxed in by useless Baby Boomer and X-Gen “rules”. BTW, I think your tattoos and metal piercings are innovative and cool! My daughters significant other the last 5 years has long hair, plays Celtic Drums and sings cool in a band…he takes care of my daughter in an excellent manner too ;-)

  167. 667

    RE: John Dimas @ 562
    I’ll Take a Good Legal Guess at Your Question

    Legally, unless the first listing contract spells it out, you’re free to roam as you like. I was contract law trained BTW.

    Pass it by Kary, he’s the Bubblehead attorney expert on that question.

  168. 668

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 661
    Yes Kary

    When I paid my mortgage debt principle off in 2009, the interest income I made on my own money paid for my Repo home investment, new car and horrifying cost heater/plumbing system maintenances on my Kent modular. Its all back in my account now too. I live within my means. Smiling and ready to stuff money away for my potential retirement care giving payouts. My health is excellent [no prescription drugs] and I turn 65 Friday!!! Happy birthday to me, SWE ;-)

    My severely disabled son saw a weight gain with me encouraging him to eat at his disabled home and weighing him every week with my scale [they don’t have weight scales at disabled homes BTW], I wonder why? LOL….its all good ;-)

  169. 669

    Seattle Area Automobile Insurance Going Through the Roof in Cost Too?

    My informal data search has uncovered a likely problem with car insurance cost in Seattle….even with a perfect record for decades, its going up like 15% a year. Question everything and believe no one? LOL

    Another reason to get out of the area? Kansas City [far less traffic congestion] automobile insurance just went down this month YOY by about 6% there…everything is cheaper in Kansas City than Seattle, especially property/state taxes [includes the small percentage Kansas State income tax, which doesn’t affect me BTW].

  170. 670
    wreckingbull says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 661:

    By wreckingbull @ 643:

    RE: ess @ 641 – Generally, over time, RE more or less keeps up with inflation. Add in maintenance and other carrying and transaction costs, and it it is a rather mediocre investment. That does not mean people should not buy homes, it means they should think for themselves and not listen to perma-bulls in the REIC.

    But most house purchases are leveraged, and much of the interest paid would otherwise be paid in rent, so just keeping up with inflation would be a good result.

    Sometimes yes, and sometimes no. There are so many variables to consider, which is why modeling tools such as the NYT rent/buy calculator are useful.

  171. 671
    wreckingbull says:

    By Justme @ 659:

    The housing bubble was caused by people PAYING TOO MUCH FOR HOUSES. There were all kinds of greedsters, buyers, banksters, brokers, builders, developers, realtors, crooks, central bankers, lenders, flippers, fraudsters, FOMOs, wall-streeters, top 0.1-percenters, swindlers, enablers, owners, pushers, profiteers, landlords, appraisers, propagandists, front-runners and margin-skimmers involved, that participated directly or indirectly in the bubble and either benefited or hoped to benefit from ever rising crazy prices. At the expense of taxpayers, renters and everyone that needed to buy a house to live in.

    THAT is the real story. And it is the same story this time.

    It is remarkable how the story repeats itself. To see this in action over the last few hundred years, I highly recommend “The Bubble Bible”. Yes, I know I have posted this here before, but it should be required reading for all.

    https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754

  172. 672

    RE: Blake @ 623
    Hey Blake

    Add this rattle snake to the real estate chicken coop. The polls allege the Dems can retake the Congress this November [remember those same polls in 2016?]….they’re convinced the “tax and spend” years were much better….LOL

    Now convince the electoral states to raise their taxes for Socialism….LOL….good luck. Nope, the Dem Midterms are a joke now, yeah, their phony polls include MASS non-voters and mean nothing. I assume the lack of open border folks voting is a lazy habit they’ll never correct…that means SWE’s vote is worth more punch….LOL

    The MSM won’t touch poll accuracy windows, they think all American math and science is a conspiracy theory? LOL, I love it when Trump lags in the phony polls, it motivates Trump’s base to vote, they’re not lazy. Look at the huge rally crowd Trump got in Everett in 2016 [10s of thousands waiting in line outside COMCAST Center]…Hillary’s rallies couldn’t fill a convenience store…

    Its all good!

  173. 673

    RE: Blake @ 623
    More Reasons the Dems Will Lose the National Midterms This November

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/u-incomes-rises-poverty-rate-declines-2017-160057531–finance.html

    Now….give me a like scientific study in writing against Trump’s economy? Cat got your tongue? I’m waiting. What’s the URL?

    Blaming the current fireman for the past fires won’t get you elected either. The electoral states won’t swallow “Obamacare type” empty promises anymore

  174. 674
  175. 675
    Justme says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 668

    Thanks. Yes, I bought and read Charles Kindleberger’s book in 2011. An important addition to my bookshelf. Also read Edward Chancellor and Nouriel Roubini.

  176. 676
    Matt P says:

    By softwarengineer @ 666:

    Seattle Area Automobile Insurance Going Through the Roof in Cost Too?

    My informal data search has uncovered a likely problem with car insurance cost in Seattle….even with a perfect record for decades, its going up like 15% a year. Question everything and believe no one? LOL

    Another reason to get out of the area? Kansas City [far less traffic congestion] automobile insurance just went down this month YOY by about 6% there…everything is cheaper in Kansas City than Seattle, especially property/state taxes [includes the small percentage Kansas State income tax, which doesn’t affect me BTW].

    Comes from an influx of bad drivers raising the risk for the whole area. They cause more crashes and everyone has to pay for it.

  177. 677
    Justme says:

    RE: Matt P @ 673

    Hmm, what about all the Uber and similar drivers that drive many more miles than the average person and probably rack up insurance claims accordingly, but having regular insurance and not the insurance of a commercial driver? That would be my guess, they are causing rates to increase for everyone. Uber gets the profits, and the insurance risk is socialized onto all insured.

    I asked a car insurance salesperson about this once, but got no admission.

  178. 678
    Matt P says:

    RE: Justme @ 674
    I’m sure that plays a part as well. My insurance is half what it was in Florida though, where cost is driven by the numerous bad drivers and those not carrying insurance at all. I’m paying half and here I’ve got a lot better coverage than I did there. A large influx of people not used to the area’s driving causes more accidents and that’s happening here as well.

  179. 679
    BacktoBasics says:

    trying to fine a contractor to remodel the kitchen and remodel. Can’t believe the cost (parts and labor). I guess the house price has reflect the cost to build a new house. Also the contractor schedule is so booked out till next year. A lot of amateur contractors also. So land become scarce and expensive, plus the labor and material cost inflation. What bubble?

  180. 680

    RE: softwarengineer @ 664

    The best answer for John Dimas #562 is just put an end date on it. Fix the problem. If he wants to change agents, though I’m looking at his house for sale and the problem isn’t the agent, the contract is likely technically invalid with no end date and unenforceable.

    But if he doesn’t want to change agents, then just put a date in there and initial it and send it to the agent to initial.

  181. 681
    Blake says:

    By softwarengineer @ 670:

    RE: Blake @ 623
    Now….give me a like scientific study in writing against Trump’s economy? Cat got your tongue? I’m waiting. What’s the URL?

    Here: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-income/forecast
    Look at the trend in US personal income the last 12 months… DOWN!
    In spite of Trump’s HUGE deficit spending and running the debt up and up!
    (And note that this is “average” personal income and skewed by the huge gains for the top 10%/1%… Half of Americans are being left behind and their incomes are not keeping up with inflation!)

  182. 682
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    I finally finished a bit of reno, and yeah, all the bids exceeded my initial budget and I had to wait months to get it done.

    A few similar houses in my neighborhood appear to be using my 2017 purchase as a price resistance peg, which to me smells like a decline — basically means 2018 gains have been zeroed out. I noted some that went for that exact price recently.

    90% of the inventory in my neighborhood is unappealing right now — bad structures or bad locations or both. Quite a few houses have been sitting since before the market turned. Those ones are really struggling. Better-prepared houses that are just entering the market seem to be moving more briskly, but definitely slower than last year. The good ones are still flying off the shelves on the rare occasions when they appear. The rest, though…

  183. 683
    David says:

    When you have MASSIVE immigration and illegal immigration is allowed, the pool of workers is therefore DRASTICALLY larger and wages will NEVER rise really under those circumstances.

    It is even bad for the aliens who can be treated like cattle because the queue behind them just keeps backing up.

    Math is a bit@h.

    By Blake @ 678:

    By softwarengineer @ 670:

    RE: Blake @ 623
    Now….give me a like scientific study in writing against Trump’s economy? Cat got your tongue? I’m waiting. What’s the URL?

    Here: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-income/forecast
    Look at the trend in US personal income the last 12 months… DOWN!
    In spite of Trump’s HUGE deficit spending and running the debt up and up!
    (And note that this is “average” personal income and skewed by the huge gains for the top 10%/1%… Half of Americans are being left behind and their incomes are not keeping up with inflation!)

  184. 684
    David says:

    When you have MASSIVE immigration and illega! immigration is allowed, the pool of workers is therefore DRASTICALLY larger and wages will NEVER rise really under those circumstances.

    It is even bad for the alien$ who can be treated like cattle because the queue behind them just keeps backing up.

    Math is a bit@h.

    By Blake @ 678:

    By softwarengineer @ 670:

    RE: Blake @ 623
    Now….give me a like scientific study in writing against Trump’s economy? Cat got your tongue? I’m waiting. What’s the URL?

    Here: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-income/forecast
    Look at the trend in US personal income the last 12 months… DOWN!
    In spite of Trump’s HUGE deficit spending and running the debt up and up!
    (And note that this is “average” personal income and skewed by the huge gains for the top 10%/1%… Half of Americans are being left behind and their incomes are not keeping up with inflation!)

  185. 685
    David says:

    RE: Blake @ 678 – When you have MASSIVE immigration and illega! immigration is allowed, the pool of workers is therefore DRASTICALLY larger and wages will NEVER rise really under those circumstances.

    It is even bad for the al!en who can be treated like cattle because the queue behind them just keeps backing up.

    Math is a tough task master.

  186. 686

    Apple Has New IPhone X So You Trash Last Year’s Purchase

    It starts at $1100 plus HORRIFYING monthly internet calling charges….no free phones with contracts now….pull out your billfolds and purses, ya can’t live without this convenience?

    Think of the enjoyment you’ll earn from a longer charged battery….you can replace the broke dishwasher next month?

  187. 687
    Blake says:

    By David @ 680:

    RE: Blake @ 678 – When you have MASSIVE immigration and illega! immigration is allowed, the pool of workers is therefore DRASTICALLY larger and wages will NEVER rise really under those circumstances.

    Math is a tough task master.

    “David you ignorant slut!” You are reliably wrong.
    Starting under Obama (who deported more people than ANY President), migration between the US and Mexico has reversed course and there are more Mexicans returning to Mexico than coming here.
    https://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2017/apr/26/ron-kind/yes-experiencing-net-outflow-illegal-undocumented-/

    Math (and facts) are clearly not your strong point!
    I almost feel sorry for ignorant jerks like yourself, but for your chest pounding arrogance you deserve to be humiliated repeatedly.

    It’s funny how some of the most ignorant people in this country are also fools who are arrogant and can’t shut up…

  188. 688
    David says:

    I’d appreciate it if you stop fantasizing about me that way you trouser shark. I’m still a virgin.

    By Blake @ 682:

    By
    “David you ignorant slut!” You are reliably wrong.

  189. 689
    Blake says:

    RE: David @ 683
    Sorry David… I forget that you are too young to remember this classic of American comedy:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c91XUyg9iWM

  190. 690
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blake @ 678 – Your claim on the downward trend is dubious. The m/m growth has been hovering between .3% and .4% with a couple .5% in earlier series. This does not constitute a trend. Btw, the report converts .451% and .349% to .5% and .3% respectively. So a difference of .1% can become .2% in the report. Got it?

    Here is the trend per BLS – For the decade 1996-2006, personal income growth is at 5.5% annually. Between 2006-2016, annual growth dropped 2.1% to 3.4%. BLS’s projected annual growth from 2016-2026 is 4.3%.

    https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/personal-income.htm

    Now you can add your political commentary.

    Or. move. on.

  191. 691
    David says:

    I remember hearing about this. No way my mother was going to let me watch that however.

    That should be required viewing at Evergreen College.

    By Blake @ 684:

    RE: David @ 683
    Sorry David… I forget that you are too young to remember this classic of American comedy:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c91XUyg9iWM

    I’d appreciate it if you stop fantasizing about me that way you trouser shark. I’m still a virgin.

    By Blake @ 682:

    By
    “David you ignorant slut!” You are reliably wrong.

  192. 692
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 685:

    Here is the trend per BLS – For the decade 1996-2006, personal income growth is at 5.5% annually. Between 2006-2016, annual growth dropped 2.1% to 3.4%. BLS’s projected annual growth from 2016-2026 is 4.3%.

    https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/personal-income.htm

    Now you can add your political commentary.

    Or. move. on.

    Projections are nice, but we can also look at the actual data.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=lbyP

  193. 693
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Wile E. Millenial @ 679

    “All the bids exceeded my initial budget and I had to wait months to get it done.”

    I am a builder. Welcome to my life. This is the way it always is. If you wanted something started quickly, done on schedule and brought in under budget with heartfelt appreciation for the work, you should have done it in 2009-2011. Right now, galloping construction material and labor costs are a very real part of increasing real estate costs. Do you really believe that if we pay workers more that housing costs will drop?

    “Which to me smells like a decline — basically means 2018 gains have been zeroed out. ”

    That depends on the neighborhood, but is almost true. If you have been used to double-digit increases and only end up a couple of measly percent above last year, it smells (or rather feels) like a decline, but it is actually an increase.

    “90% of the inventory in my neighborhood is unappealing right now — bad structures or bad locations or both. Quite a few houses have been sitting since before the market turned. Those ones are really struggling. Better-prepared houses that are just entering the market seem to be moving more briskly, but definitely slower than last year. The good ones are still flying off the shelves on the rare occasions when they appear. ”

    The market is very split. Stuff that was garbage in 2017 sold fast and got bid up. Stuff that was good sold really fast was really bid up. After the market turned, the stuff that is garbage sits and the stuff that is good sells– and sells pretty quickly. Really good stuff can get more than one offer and sometimes gets bid up a bit.

    I am glad for the change. In my world of new construction there is also a shakeout in process. The crazy money in the market turned every Russian or Ukranian sheetrock guy, sider or trim carpenter into a “builder”. Their stuff was low quality and sent totally mixed design messages. A lot of it was gaudy and tacky at the same time. Now they are wondering why their product is sitting.

    Sometimes the market needs a shakeout rather than a 2008-style bloodbath.

  194. 694
    Deerhawke says:

    For those meditating on the causes and consequences of the Great Recession, here is another good link, complete with telling graphics:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/business/great-recession-10-years-out/?utm_term=.1398f3d3591a

  195. 695
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 686 – Your link was not an apple to apple comparison. BLS personal income growth data from period 1996-2006 and 2006-2016 are factual. I am pretty certain personal income growth since 2017 is above the weak 2006-2016 average of 3.4%.

  196. 696
    Justme says:

    Who caused the great Housing Bubble of 2003-2008 and the Great Recession of 2008-13? That is the obvious question this week at the 10-year anniversary of the demise of Lehman Brothers, which was the event that marked when the financial crisis in the aftermath of the housing bubble started affecting almost everyone.

    Not me!!, says every person, trade group and industry that cheered the madness on for their own greed and profit.

    It wasn’t a bubble, it wasn’t my fault, it was the fault of those OTHER people. In fact, there was no bubble at all, just look at asset prices now! They are higher than ever! What’s not to like?

    Never mind the 700B USD “TARP” bailout. Never mind that the Federal Reserve Bank “had to” create 4.3 TRILLION USD(*) in new bank reserves in order to paper over the giant losses, and inflate assets back so that banks and (mostly wealthy) bondholders and shareholders would not have to be subjected to the losses. (*) Bank reserves were about 600B USD before this started, I think.

    Who lost? Every working man and woman of the land, because asset inflation equals labor devaluation. It devalues YOU. You will not get a raise that keeps up with asset inflation. You will not be able to afford a house. You will not get rich from bonds and stocks. Nobody gave or will give YOU interest-free loans to buy in at rock-bottom prices.

    And here we are again. The Everything Bubble has been in full swing for the last 5 years. Asset inflation has been going on for a full 9 years. Labor is as undervalued as ever.

    Yes, this is the week when various self-interested subgroups make an extra effort to spread propaganda that hides their actions and self-interest in causing the housing bubble and the great recession.

    Enjoy. If you can stomach it.

  197. 697
    David says:

    The WaPo also argued that Trump is responsible for the hurricane. The source must be considered and remember that IQs are down about 21 points since 1975.

    By Deerhawke @ 688:

    For those meditating on the causes and consequences of the Great Recession, here is another good link, complete with telling graphics:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/business/great-recession-10-years-out/?utm_term=.1398f3d3591a

  198. 698
    Notme says:

    All the lies and cons
    10 year anniversary
    bring the distractions

    -a bubble/crisis coverup haiku

  199. 699
    Benvolio says:

    By David @ 691:

    The WaPo also argued that Trump is responsible for the hurricane. The source must be considered and remember that IQs are down about 21 points since 1975.

    By Deerhawke @ 688:

    For those meditating on the causes and consequences of the Great Recession, here is another good link, complete with telling graphics:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/business/great-recession-10-years-out/?utm_term=.1398f3d3591a

    Why do insist on repeating this falsehood about intelligence declining after being corrected repeatedly?

    http://www.sciencetimes.com/amp/articles/4874/20150326/america-getting-smarter-why-have-iq-scores-risen-in-the-us-over-the-last-century.htm

    I’m going a hazard a guess that you’re a baby boomer and can’t handle the idea that all these ear-budded millennials are smarter than your generation.

  200. 700
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: David @ 691

    The decline in intelligence is even more widespread than you assert, but at least we know that it is geographically contained in the flyover zone and directly correlated with the rise of Fox News.

  201. 701

    RE: Matt P @ 673
    Great Analogy Matt

    How many uninsured motorist driving nuts we have to barely avoid hitting…because they can’t afford insurance now? The open border solution of just spraying the poop on the streets won’t help in this case?

  202. 702

    RE: Deerhawke @ 693
    And You Still Trust CNN?

    LOL…they can’t get a story’s source right and lie to protect false sources. Anything to impeach Trump huh? I find FOX the most reliable, but Sheppard Smith and Brit Hume have a horrible reliance on the inaccurate polling of issues and candidates.

    Nope, raw “good news” economic data is the best news sources for voting trends, MSM has made a monkey of itself. We the People ignore the MSM, we’re not fooled anymore Deerhawke.

    What happenned to hoping the President succeeds, its in Seattle Real Estate’s best interest you know? Cat got your tongue Deerhawke?

  203. 703
    Jim says:

    Where’s the August data post? Heard inventory sky-rocketed. Why the delay in posting? Afraid to spook the market?

  204. 704
    Joe says:

    I continue to see housing inventory rapidly increase. As I said earlier, inventory is increasing at a rate of 1-2% PER DAY. My Trulia stats for Seattle show inventory of 2,715 last Thursday, and 3022 today, for a gain of 11.3% in one week.

    This tells me the price sensitive homeowners, which includes investors, downsizers, flippers, and landlords, are rushing to the exits. At the same time, more potential buyers are deciding to wait it out, so the candle is burning on both ends. These are not “panicked” sellers. They are the smart ones who closely follow real estate prices and realize the window for selling at today’s once-in-a-generation prices is very short.

  205. 705
    Rupert D says:

    RE: Blake @ 678
    while I am always interested in good data, your observations are completely misleading. First the chart shows estimated monthly growth rates of at least 0.3% which equates to an annual increase in personal income of at least 3.6%. One better than 0.3% monthly data point and they would draw the trend to be flat or positive. Furthermore your comment about inflation is also meant to mislead as over the last several years inflation has been as low as it ever has been. Redistribution of wealth does not work. Ask the Soviets about how much incentive they had to work hard. Remember the videos of empty grocery store shelves from the Soviet Union and for the lucky few who visited the US how amazed they were of the amount of food in our supermarkets. If not please take a history and economic lesson if you want to provide believable commentary.

  206. 706
    Blake says:

    By Rupert D @ 697:

    RE: Blake @ 678
    while I am always interested in good data, your observations are completely misleading. First the chart shows estimated monthly growth rates of at least 0.3% which equates to an annual increase in personal income of at least 3.6%. One better than 0.3% monthly data point and they would draw the trend to be flat or positive. Furthermore your comment about inflation is also meant to mislead as over the last several years inflation has been as low as it ever has been. Redistribution of wealth does not work. Ask the Soviets about how much incentive they had to work hard. Remember the videos of empty grocery store shelves from the Soviet Union and for the lucky few who visited the US how amazed they were of the amount of food in our supermarkets. If not please take a history and economic lesson if you want to provide believable commentary.

    Oh my… so my commentary is not “believable?”
    #1. My “observation” was this:
    “Look at the trend in US personal income the last 12 months… DOWN!
    In spite of Trump’s HUGE deficit spending and running the debt up and up!
    (And note that this is “average” personal income and skewed by the huge gains for the top 10%/1%… Half of Americans are being left behind and their incomes are not keeping up with inflation!)”
    You say that is “completely misleading.” How?
    #2. You noted: ” One better than 0.3% monthly data point and they would draw the trend to be flat or positive.” (I think you meant 0.1 better?)
    Yes, but it WASN’T “one better!!!?” lmfao!!
    Over the last 6 months, personal income growth was 0.3% for 5 months and 0.4% for one. The previous 6 months saw only one month with 0.3% and the rest 0.4% or 0.5%. Any way you slice that average personal income growth the last six months has been lower than the previous six months.
    #3. Yes, inflation has been low, but income gains for MOST Americans are even lower! This has been going on for years…
    #4. You wrote; “Redistribution of wealth does not work. Ask the Soviets about how much incentive they had to work hard.” WTF is that in reference to?
    I just noted that income gains after Trump’s huge give away to the rich and corporations are not trickling down to most people. So I guess we are at the stage of insanity in this country where if you think the workers and middle class deserve raises, then you are a Commie!?
    And we are talking about income, not “redistributing wealth.” Do you not think that when profits are rising the workers deserve a share of the profits? Fact is: Sharing profits with the workers and middle class IS WHAT KEEPS OUR ECONOMY WORKING! Look at the growth rates we had in the 50s and 60s when the lower 90% received most of the income gains. The last 30 years, this has been reversed and the top 10% have received 80% of the income gains!
    https://goo.gl/images/xUtbyv

    I often wonder how the propaganda from the wealthy elites that rule this country has convinced so many people like you that it is good if the rich and corporations horde their gains (profits and tax cuts) and do not share it with their workers. Are you a trust fund baby who relies upon dividends for income? Do you not know that consumers are 70% of our economy?

  207. 707
    Blake says:

    By Deerhawke @ 693:

    RE: David @ 691

    The decline in intelligence is even more widespread than you assert, but at least we know that it is geographically contained in the flyover zone and directly correlated with the rise of Fox News.

    Anyone who has been reading David’s fact-free posts and trying to follow his “logic” has to laugh when he says that IQs are declining!!
    Really David? Really?

  208. 708
    Blake says:

    By Eastsider @ 689:

    RE: uwp @ 686 – Your link was not an apple to apple comparison. BLS personal income growth data from period 1996-2006 and 2006-2016 are factual. I am pretty certain personal income growth since 2017 is above the weak 2006-2016 average of 3.4%.

    s’Funny when right-wingers like Eastsider post “facts” like this.
    So, Eastsider. Do YOU think a comparison that groups 2007 and 2008 and the Great Recession that started a year before Obama was sworn in (the worst recession in the last 80 years!) in with the Obama years is FAIR?
    Really?
    Explain to me why you think that is a good comp?

    And you also wrote: “BLS’s projected annual growth from 2016-2026 is 4.3%.”
    Hilarious… Who here thinks that ANYONE’s projections for personal income growth in 2025 or 2026 is worth anything? I seriously doubt they can predict with any accuracy what it is 2 or 3 years hence.

    … let’s deal with actual numbers and not projections.
    I simply used the actual income growth from the last 12 months to see if the money from Trump’s TRILLION dollar tax cuts is filtering down to increasing wages, as they said it would when they sold that tax cut package. You pin heads will only cite the anecdotal evidence that a bunch of corps coincidentally gave $1,000 bonuses to some workers immediately after the tax cuts. This was clearly a PR/propaganda move by the corps because they believe that Americans are a bunch of rubes and idiots. Unfortunately many, many of you are!

  209. 709
    Blake says:

    Hmmm… looks like consensus is pointing towards a recession in 2020. I recall that several people here have also stated that 2020 is their” inflection point.” Ardell, others?
    …I wonder what personal income growth will be in 2020 and 2021 ;-)
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-13/warnings-keep-coming-about-a-downturn-that-will-hit-in-2020?srnd=markets-vp
    Everyone has 2020 vision. The year 2020 is emerging as a popular point in time for when the next economic downturn may arrive.
    . In March, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that “2020 is a real inflection point.”
    . Earlier this summer, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that the U.S. economy may face a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ moment in 2020 as various forms of stimulus start to run out.
    . SocGen warned of recession prospects in 2020, thanks to labor market tightness, the rising cost of servicing debts, and the fiscal situation.
    . Yesterday, billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio echoed the same idea, warning that the U.S. was about two years from a downturn, thanks to the fading effects of the Trump tax cuts.
    . JPMorgan is out with a new model today that says the next financial crisis could come in 2020. The model is built upon such factors as the length of the existing economic expansion, asset valuations, the regulatory climate, and the degree of leverage in the economy.

  210. 710

    Raw Data is Not a Power Point Graph With No X-Y Axis Name

    0.3? What is it? What raw data are they tracking? Are they tracking raw data?

    Thanks for the URL Blake….I’ll stick with the BLS raw data, not some unknown math cook book.

  211. 711
    Justme says:

    It is time for another detailed KC/SFH inventory chart update, contrasting 2017 inventory with 2018 so far for King County SFH. Apart from the much higher inventory values, as documented also by SeattleTimes, NWMLS, and elsewhere in this thread, there are some finer details worth observing.

    Most interesting right now is a notable lack of back-to-school slide and a reduced pre-labor-day-drop in the inventory. In 2017 back-to-school was a 3-week slide and another near-flat week before rising again. For back-to-school season in August 2018, there was a one-week near-flat (but still a rise) before a brisk rise continued. As for the labor-day-dip, 2017 had a pronounced dip followed by a weak recovery that was followed by the maximum for the year 2 weeks later. In 2018, the labor-day dip was smaller (both percentage and number count), and the recovery has been brisk.

    So there you have it. A day-by-day look at the micro-structure of the listing market. There is increased evidence of larger crowds gathering at the exit of the housing market.

    https://imgur.com/a/80oZhst

    Click on the image for larger version once you get there.

  212. 712
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 688
    Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank caused this.

  213. 713
    Matt P says:

    By Justme @ 711:

    It is time for another detailed KC/SFH inventory chart update, contrasting 2017 inventory with 2018 so far for King County SFH. Apart from the much higher inventory values, as documented also by SeattleTimes, NWMLS, and elsewhere in this thread, there are some finer details worth observing.

    Most interesting right now is a notable lack of back-to-school slide and a reduced pre-labor-day-drop in the inventory. In 2017 back-to-school was a 3-week slide and another near-flat week before rising again. For back-to-school season in August 2018, there was a one-week near-flat (but still a rise) before a brisk rise continued. As for the labor-day-dip, 2017 had a pronounced dip followed by a weak recovery that was followed by the maximum for the year 2 weeks later. In 2018, the labor-day dip was smaller (both percentage and number count), and the recovery has been brisk.

    So there you have it. A day-by-day look at the micro-structure of the listing market. There is increased evidence of larger crowds gathering at the exit of the housing market.

    https://imgur.com/a/80oZhst

    Click on the image for larger version once you get there.

    Rolling on toward 5,000 for SFH. What do the condo numbers look like?

  214. 714
    Bobber says:

    RE: Justme @ 711

    I see that inventory popped this afternoon. Seattle inventory went up 5% from yesterday to today (i.e., one day). Sellers are going to have to reduce prices to attract the limited supply of sellers out there. Only the first sellers will be able to capitalize.

  215. 715
    David says:

    Actually there was a study a few years ago that said 80% of New Yorkers are functionally illiterate. Flyover country is actually quite intelligent.

    By Deerhawke @ 700:

    RE: David @ 691

    The decline in intelligence is even more widespread than you assert, but at least we know that it is geographically contained in the flyover zone and directly correlated with the rise of Fox News.

  216. 716
    Rupert D says:

    RE: Blake @ 706
    Oink oink, enjoy feeding at the trough.

  217. 717
    Rupert D says:

    RE: Blake @ 709
    Is the Tim paying you ‘by the word’ for your endless postings? I know he’s not paying you for quality of content.

  218. 718
    Blake says:

    By Rupert D @ 715:

    RE: Blake @ 706
    Oink oink, enjoy feeding at the trough.

    Terrific response Rupert. About what I expected from you. Coward… won’t defend what you wrote.

  219. 719
    Blake says:

    This is excellent.
    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/gynbw9/the-bailouts-for-the-rich-are-why-america-is-so-screwed-right-now
    … The response to the financial crisis was about reorganizing property rights. If you were close to power, you enjoyed unlimited rights and no responsibilities, and if you were far from power, you got screwed.

    The way Geithner orchestrated this was through a two-tiered series of policy choices. During the crisis, everyone needed money from the government, but Geithner offered money to the big guy, and not the little guy. First, he found mechanisms, all of them very technical to throw unlimited amounts of credit at institutions controlled by financial executives in the United States and Europe. (Eric Holder, meanwhile, also de facto granted legal amnesty to executives for possible securities fraud associated with the crisis.) Second, Geithner chose to deny money and credit to the middle class in the midst of a foreclosure crisis. The Obama administration supported this by neutering laws against illegal foreclosures.
    (end quote)

    The rich and powerful run our country… for their own benefit.
    Their greed is insatiable and ultimately destructive!

  220. 720
    David says:

    I was in Baltimore today on the way to look at some more properties and I ran into the only LIVING Medal of Honor recipient since the Vietnam War. He was getting off a plane to meet the other surviving MOH winners in DC.

    Salvatore Giunta – pretty cool cat – and from Iowa.

  221. 721
    Macro Investor says:

    I stop by once in a while to look at the home page charts. Since April (just 4 months) the median price has fallen about $120k, while inventory has approximately tripled.

    Not saying the sky is falling, but something is definitely up.

    I have no idea what’s up. Last fall thru winter was when rates turned up from a historic low, increasing about a full percent over 5 months. So the start of this year’s spring/summer season would be shocking to those who checked out over the dark/wet months. There is significantly less buying power for someone maxing out a mortgage payment.

    I’m guessing our host, Tim, will soon announce that he has sold at the very top. This is the reason why the August stats are MIA. Just kidding. But my theory is that price drops beget price drops because everybody is watching their equity position with glee, turning to concern. We’ll see about that. For now, things have just turned from a crazy seller’s market to more normal.

  222. 722

    RE: David @ 714
    It Must Be the Air Pollution and Smoke Making the Coastal Overpopulated Areas of America Much Dumber?

    Maybe we should measure the skull diameters of the average humans living in an area….without reference to ethnic groups, larger skull sizes means more brain capacity. Yes, I’ve noticed smaller skulls on the coast in general too.

    This is purely a biological data gathering analysis that medical science frequently researches anyway.

  223. 723

    RE: Blake @ 718
    When Did Clinton [Dems] Join the Rich and Powerful Blake?

    I’d say it was 1999 when the Dem party was destroyed by Bill Clinton pushing the rich agency WTO. Remember the rubber bullets at the Populists for fair trade demonstrators in Seattle? Battle of Seattle, a key milestone in the destruction of America’s manufacturing and wages.

    LOL…the Chinese made us look like clowns and good old Bill went along with it. So did King County’s government. I couldn’t believe using city money to fund illegal alien marches through Seattle, the Seattle Mayor should have been fired.

  224. 724

    RE: Erik @ 712
    Good Gosh Erik

    Haven’t heard from the “Chief of Flippers Milenial” in a bit, LOL you point at Obama officials in the past for our current lending constrictions without Obama Quantitative Easing creating a phony economy….very innovative thinking.

    You make a short blog and the floor collapses on the discussions…you sly devil [or is it better termed angel?]? ;-0

  225. 725

    RE: softwarengineer @ 723
    Hey Erik

    I turn 65 today! I’m getting my free Grand Slam at Denny’s today. The American Indian poor kids sent me a happy birthday recording…cheered me up too!!!

    http://www.stlabre.org/happybirthday/

    The American poor have been forgotten today in a lot of ways, but we don’t have to be that way.

  226. 726

    By Justme @ 677:

    RE: Matt P @ 673

    Hmm, what about all the Uber and similar drivers that drive many more miles than the average person and probably rack up insurance claims accordingly, but having regular insurance and not the insurance of a commercial driver? That would be my guess, they are causing rates to increase for everyone. Uber gets the profits, and the insurance risk is socialized onto all insured.

    I asked a car insurance salesperson about this once, but got no admission.

    I believe the insurance companies now offer ride-share insurance riders for the drivers. Not sure what that costs, if anything.

    https://pemco.com/landing/rideshare

  227. 727
    Joe says:

    A perfect example of how bloated prices are right now in Seattle. Prices could drop 30-40% or more. Small damaged houses are being priced in the millions.

    https://www.trulia.com/p/wa/seattle/15-w-smith-st-seattle-wa-98119–2118775116

  228. 728

    By BacktoBasics @ 679:

    trying to fine a contractor to remodel the kitchen and remodel. Can’t believe the cost (parts and labor). I guess the house price has reflect the cost to build a new house. Also the contractor schedule is so booked out till next year. A lot of amateur contractors also. So land become scarce and expensive, plus the labor and material cost inflation. What bubble?

    It’s so expensive because they are so busy. Simple supply and demand.

  229. 729
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blake @ 708 – You are not interested in fact. But here is the June 21 State Quarterly Personal Income report from BEA. WA has the highest increase among all states. The next report is Sept 25.

    State personal income increased 4.3 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2018, after increasing 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis1 (table 1). Personal income increased in all states and the District of Columbia. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 7.4 percent in Washington to 2.0 percent in Idaho.

    https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income-by-state

  230. 730
    Dustin says:

    RE: Joe @ 726 – Single family real estate in Queen Anne is extremely valuable. However, I’d agree that listing is overpriced given the house’s condition and its location on a busy street. $1.2m would make more sense if the house were well presented and maintained. You should make a lowball offer. ;)

  231. 731

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 727
    If I Had Hired a Contractor to Reseal my Modular Skirt and Car Port Frame

    It would have been several “thousands” in cost versus a hundred in supplies with my labor.

    I sure hope my health stays excellent….its everyones’ Achilles heal.

  232. 732

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 727
    A Bellevue Area Kitchen Remodel Alone in 1990

    Was like $100K with a contractor putting in custom solid oak cabinets. I did the whole house [with the custom solid oak cabinets in the bathroom too] for $26,000 [being my own contractor and hiring my own employees] and watched its value only go up $40K per an appraiser too.

    Seattle has always been expensive on remodeling.

  233. 733
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 723
    Deerhawke has good comments. I just wanted to point out that 2 liberals really created the last mess.

  234. 734
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 724
    That’s my favorite kind of meal, free.

  235. 735
    Matt P says:

    So anywhere else that puts out similar updates on numbers that used to happen here?

  236. 736
    David says:

    By softwarengineer @ 722:

    RE: David @ 714
    It Must Be the Air Pollution and Smoke Making the Coastal Overpopulated Areas of America Much Dumber?

    Maybe we should measure the skull diameters of the average humans living in an area….without reference to ethnic groups, larger skull sizes means more brain capacity. Yes, I’ve noticed smaller skulls on the coast in general too.

    This is purely a biological data gathering analysis that medical science frequently researches anyway.

    In re IQ, I don’t think anyone knows or won’t say if they do. If they are including people here from 3rd World countries, then I would say that is it. Latin Americans, if they are illegal, have very very low education. Hopefully, that changes by Mexico getting its act together at some point (also Honduras, Guatemala, etc.), but I would not count on it.

    All I really care about though is getting my properties sold before the end of next year. I’m going mostly cash for personal reasons

  237. 737
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Erik @ 733

    Erik, I think you are a funny, entrepreneurial young guy. But if you think the last recession was caused by 2 liberals, then:

    1) you desire simplicity and ignore all the historical details that get in the way of one simple, compelling explanation. (HL Mencken memorably wrote “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”)

    2) you forgot that the last recession started during the Bush administration. Which had been there for two terms–8 years. Somehow these two incredibly powerful liberals started the recession despite the Republican’s holding the Executive Branch? Really? How? Were these two people magical? Were they wizards?

    Look, If you believe this kind of stuff, you are probably getting your information from Fox News and even worse outlets. If so, you are leaving yourself open to getting really sideswiped by changes in the political economy. As an act of financial self-preservation, you should reject the propaganda and read broadly.

  238. 738

    RE: David @ 697
    I Heard 45 Points Lower Than 1975

    No matter…my Severely Autistic Adult Son’s IQ was measured at the U of W…its 40. So the average downward trend is approximately his entire IQ. Horrifying!

    Maybe its related to average skull size in Seattle area, or brain capacity? Whatever, we’re getting MUCH dumber in America. Get a college education and become an educated idiot…LOL.

  239. 739

    RE: Deerhawke @ 737
    Erik Makes Most of Us in this Bubble Blog

    Look like educated idiots. He uses a secret formula, common sense and ignores the MSM….he’s young and getting rich. Erik is a very successful Capitalist, he ain’t no Socialist….LOL

    Learn from Erik. I do agree that foul mouthed partisan types occur in both parties…but lets be honest, Trump never called the entire Democratic Party deplorables…you open border types do.

  240. 740
    Greg says:

    By Benvolio @ 699:

    By David @ 691:

    The WaPo also argued that Trump is responsible for the hurricane. The source must be considered and remember that IQs are down about 21 points since 1975.

    By Deerhawke @ 688:

    For those meditating on the causes and consequences of the Great Recession, here is another good link, complete with telling graphics:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/business/great-recession-10-years-out/?utm_term=.1398f3d3591a

    Why do insist on repeating this falsehood about intelligence declining after being corrected repeatedly?

    http://www.sciencetimes.com/amp/articles/4874/20150326/america-getting-smarter-why-have-iq-scores-risen-in-the-us-over-the-last-century.htm

    I’m going a hazard a guess that you’re a baby boomer and can’t handle the idea that all these ear-budded millennials are smarter than your generation.

    We are not getting dumber but not really getting smarter either. Just better education and nutrition.

    IQs are not likely to change much over a few generations the idea that they are is just silly. But the test scores may well be higher due to the reasons stated already.

    the people claiming IQs are declining are a mix of weak thinkers and those who want to it to be true.
    A lot of older people struggle with the day changing world, so they look for easy answers that can explain away the changes.
    Telling themselves that younger adults are either lazy or dumb makes it easier to blame them.
    And let’s face it, the US is the land of blame the poor for being poor. Blame the sick for getting sick, it is winner takes all and to hell with the other 80%.

    It is almost 20 years since I moved back to the US. There are as many food banks today as there were then.

    It seems to me that many of my fellow Americans love stories like these because it lets them off the hook. If it is the People getter dumber that is causing them to live in poverty, the wealthy and lucky are guilt free.
    Thus they lap up these stories. Boomers don’t want to admit they are passing all the problems they created down to the next gen. Instead of dealing with our fiscal issues we passed the buck. Now our kids and their kids can’t afford homes, have no pensions, lousy employment terms and still don’t have secure healthcare….

  241. 741

    We’re seemingly at over 5,000 active SFR listings in King County now–quite the change. And while that is much better for buyers, we’re still at under 2 months of supply. I think most people consider under 3 months to be a seller’s market (and some go even higher), but given what we’ve been through the last couple of years it is hard to think of is that way. Note though that two years ago I was saying that having about 2 months supply down in Thurston County was much more relaxed for buyers, but not bad for sellers either. And one great thing about this change is I’m not seeing many listings go straight to pending without an inspection period. That is good for everyone!

    Number 5,000 from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed.
    1fdxe4fsxfda22682 (The person who knows what this is should contact me.)

  242. 742

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 740
    Sell Baby Sell?

    Just don’t wait too long or it may be too late?

    What a mess predicting this messes’ outcome in the future. Pass the crystal ball from the psychic, I need some professional preparation advice…LOL

  243. 743

    RE: softwarengineer @ 741 – It may be too late to get some serious bidding war action. The best part of bidding wars is being able to avoid bad agents and lenders–well that and possibly being able to sell your house for much more than it is worth.

  244. 744
    Deerhawke says:

    Erik

    See link below. This is the kind of thing you can get from intelligent media outlets that just might help you survive the next financial storm.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/12/business/the-next-recession-financial-crisis.html?action=click&module=Trending&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&contentCollection=Trending

  245. 745

    I wonder what kind of damage Boeing’s South Carolina site suffered from the hurricane? Shortly before the threat was even known there was this article about 787’s backing up, not being fully completed.

    https://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/news/2018/08/28/boeing-787-dreamliners-backing-up-in-south.html

    They did apparently remove about 8 planes that were flyable. Back when they were moving down there I was critical of the second site location (a second site I supported) due to two factors–1. A relatively shallow and low quality work force; and 2. Weather threats. At least with weather threats, unlike earthquakes, you get some warning, but that doesn’t help if you have some assets you cannot move because they lack critical parts like engines.

  246. 746
  247. 747
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 740 – Were we at 2,000 earlier this year? If we are now at 5,000, where will we be at in 6 months? Current inventory trend does not look good.

  248. 748

    By Eastsider @ 746:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 740 – Were we at 2,000 earlier this year? If we are now at 5,000, where will we be at in 6 months? Current inventory trend does not look good.

    Unless you’re a buyer. But agents will be going though more gas because there are more properties to preview and it’s actually possible to preview. Earlier you almost had to drag your clients around for first viewings for fear it would be gone before they saw it if you didn’t.

  249. 749
    Saffy The Pook says:

    By Deerhawke @ 743:

    Erik

    See link below. This is the kind of thing you can get from intelligent media outlets that just might help you survive the next financial storm.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/12/business/the-next-recession-financial-crisis.html?action=click&module=Trending&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&contentCollection=Trending

    Forget all that. I just got a flyer in the mail from Michael P. Lindekugel, MBA-Finance and RE/MAX realtor. “The consensus among leading economists is the recession willstart (sic) 2020 Q1 or before. Don’t miss out selling for top price before the real estate market corrects 15% to 30%.”

    If you saw the picture of Mr. Lindekugel, MBA on the front of the flyer, not only would you be certain that his credentials are well-earned, you’d likely call and invite him to dinner to meet your daughter and “give it to her straight up.”

    https://www.remax.com/realestateagentoffice/seattle-wa-98102-michaelplindekugelmba-finance-id11088809.html

  250. 750
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Saffy The Pook @ 748 – That’s a rather interesting photo. I’m not quite sure what to make of it. What is he laughing at? I do give him credit for trying to whip up the urge to sell by seeding FUD. Most RE agents just stick with the ‘real estate always goes up’ mantra.

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